Sunday Rockpile: NL West Rotation Rundown
by Rox Girl on Feb 8, 2009 9:59 AM MST
in Rockpile
Email
PrintWith the Dodgers acquisition of Randy Wolf this week, the teams in the NL West have seemingly decided on the rotation parts they will be relying on for at least the beginning of the year. I'm going to look at the state of the rotations be cataloging starters into four categories. Starters who have pitched at least one full season in the majors and don't have current injury concerns will primarily be put in either the top middle or bottom. The fourth category will be wildcards, these will include young starters with the ability to overshoot their projections, prospects and veterans with injury or other question marks.
I hope to make it clear that this exercise doesn't predict anything, just illustrates where each team is placing their bets. Any team could lose the division by having one or more of their so-called stable pitchers go down, or win it by having their wildcards perform better than expected. If Clayton Kershaw becomes another ace and James McDonald performs like a mid-rotation starter, the Dodgers likely win the division. If Brandon Webb goes Tim Hudson for the Diamondbacks this year, Arizona can pretty much kiss their chances goodbye. Anybody could build a scenario to fit their personal NL West projection. Once again, San Diego's ignored for irrelevance in 2009 (if you're dying for a Rockies fan perspective of the Padres, you could read Travis Lay's projection at Colorado Rockies Examiner)
Arizona:
Stable top: Brandon Webb, Dan Haren
Stable middle:
Stable bottom: Doug Davis, Yusmeiro Petit, Jon Garland
Wildcards: Max Scherzer, Travis Blackley, Jarrod Parker
Ability to pick up significant help midseason via trade: Lacking
The Diamondbacks remain pretty shallow relative to the other three teams in the rotation, but they're deadly as long as they remain healthy. Scherzer has as potent an arm as any young right hander in the division, including Lincecum, Billingsley and Jimenez. Blackley's performance in Mexico drew many raves, and the D-backs are hoping they found a gem with him, but right now it's looking like he might be slotted for the bullpen/swing duty. Picking up Garland was a big help to insure against some let down by either of those two.
Without a lot of minor league depth, the Snakes will have to rely on development by Parker if their big league rotation has gone south. Catcher Miguel Montero is the piece they've been using as bait for pitching over the winter, he should help them get some arm, but don't expect Arizona to acquire another frontline starter this summer.
San Francisco:
Stable Top: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain
Stable middle: Jonathan Sanchez, Barry Zito
Wildcards: Randy Johnson, Noah Lowry, Kevin Pucetas, Henry Sosa, Tim Alderson, Madison Bumgarner
Ability to pick up help midseason via trade: Good, but they shouldn't need it in the rotation.
It's becoming clear that the Giants will have the division's rotation to fear in the early part of next decade. I'm hoping that a few of these arms go Jerome Williams or Jesse Foppert on them before that happens. For 2009, the rotation's solid, but the lineup is still deficient.
I would expect the Giants to use some of their minor league depth to acquire a young bat if they are serious contenders Midsummer, but not another ace pitcher.
Los Angeles:
Stable top: Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda
Stable middle: Randy Wolf (semi-stable, I still wonder about the IP)
Stable bottom: Eric Stults
Wildcards: Clayton Kershaw, James McDonald, Jason Schmidt, Ramon Troncoso,
Ability to pick up help midseason via trade: Not great right now
Wolf was as good a pickup as the Dodgers could have made via free-agency at this point in the offseason, and unfortunately he came at a bargain. In relying so heavily on Billingsley and Kershaw for 2009, the Dodgers are rolling the dice on a couple of talented young starters. This could either pay off in a big way (think about the 2003 Marlins or the mid-80's Mets and Royals teams) or bring disappointment.
The Dodgers could have the potential to put a significant trade package together by midseason if prospects like Andrew Lambo, Ivan DeJesus Jr. and Ethan Martin take off in early 2009. Right now, however, it's hard to see a package that draws frontline rotation talent.
Colorado:
Stable top: Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook
Stable middle: Jeff Francis
Stable bottom: Greg Smith, Jason Marquis
Wildcards: Jorge De La Rosa, Franklin Morales, Francis, Greg Reynolds, Jason Hirsh, Jhoulys Chacin
Ability to pick up help midseason via trade: Decent
Francis' potential loss significantly raises the unknown quotient in the Rockies rotation, and focuses attention on the need for two of the trio of other LHP starters (JDLR, Smith or Morales) to prove themselves reliable in 2009. The Rockies could win the division if they get two mid-rotation caliber performances to back Jimenez and Cook, but the Francis loss definitely impacts their likelihood of doing so.
The Rockies are sort of a hybrid between the Dodgers and Giants when it comes to trade-worthy talent. They have more upper level prospects than Los Angeles, but at the same time they are needing some solid early season performances to really make a trade package work. If you look at the Sabathia and Harden trades of last summer, you can see where the Rockies will need a positional talent like Hector Gomez or Chris Nelson to impress early to add a near ready bat to the pot.
35 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I would much rather the FO and Francis get to the root of the problem right away.
Please don’t waste 4 months trying to work the arm into shape if surgery is what is needed.
RJ
Randy Johnson as a wild card? He’s definitely in the stable middle or the stable bottom party. It’s unfair to list Greg Smith as a stable bottom (uhh, we’re talking about baseball right…?) when his stuff is a relatively unknown commodity compared to Johnson, who has started 30+ times 3 of the last 4 years. Plus, Bill James has their appearances and IP somewhat close; Smith with 3 more starts and 20 more IP, but Johnson turns in the better performance. CHONE, however, shows Johnson making 18 good starts and Smith making 26 mediocre starts. Maybe this is a bit fantasy oriented, but if those projections are accurate, 18 good starts by Johnson will be worth far more at the back end of the Giants rotation than 25 mediocre starts by Smith as the Rockies’ 5.
If your instinct is that Johnson will not be healthy, then you are right. But going by the projections, I think he’s definitely more than a wild card. Don’t forget what he did to the Rockies in the very last start of the season. Really pissed on a great U-Ball start.
Johnson's a wildcard for a couple of reasons
He’s going to be 45 years old. He’s already an unprecedented specimen, but there’s no way you can say for sure a 45 year old pitcher is going to be a stable anything. What’s more, I think you’re totally misinterpreting what I’m describing as a wildcard. It’s not a worse category than “stable bottom,” it could very well be much better. While it is doubtful, with his talent, if Johnson does start thirty plus games, he could be a third ace for the Giants this season. I just don’t see how you could say with any degree of certainty that any projection for him is going to be on the mark.
WC
Since I’m forecasting Johnson has a positive, I’m not misinterpreting your definitions of the categories (obviously, he could be better or worse). I’m disagreeing with listing him as a WC and Smith as a “stable bottom” (did you read Tearoom Trade recently?) Two questions:
1. Would you list Jamie Moyer as a wild card?
2. Would you rather have 18 starts of Johnson or 26 of Smith?
Your overall system isn’t wrong, and you could be right about Johnson’s age and injury history, but being a soft-tossing fly ball lefty in Coors, Smith has big question marks as well.
Yes, I would list Jamie Moyer as a wildcard for his age alone
But he’s less of a wildcard than Johnson, I think, because he doesn’t rely on velocity at all. The list of fastball reliant pitchers that continued to have success after their 45th birthday is extremely short. Johnson certainly could be one of them. Given the physiology of people’s tendons in their mid-40’s, his arm could fall off in March. I just don’t see where you can put him and say he’s stable.
As for Smith, once again the evidence that he’s a “fly ball pitcher” isn’t nearly as concrete as people are saying, but even if it were, the idea that he’d be drastically impacted by Coors Field beyond a fourth/fifth starter caliber of pitcher doesn’t hold water. I’m not sure how people could expect his ERA to go much over a 5.25 level given his history. We do know that he’s not going to be a top of the rotation starter and that his peak would be in the middle of a rotation. To me, this relatively defined range that we have for him makes him so much easier to project than RJ.
Flyball Pitcher
Well, you’re an agist. How many 44 year old pitchers had the season Johnson just had? It’s silly to say, “Well, he could do it at 44. But, 45? Woah, no way.”
And flyball was Smith’s label in the minors.
He does have a good minor league track record of keeping the ball in the park despite his label. He did, however, allow nearly as many HR last year as he did in his entire minor league career.
Again, I don’t think he’s going to do poorly. I think Smith will be as good as Marquis, actually. I do think it’s silly to rank a pitcher with one rocky year of experience (who is switching leagues and pitching a park that is tough for his style of pitching) as more of a certainty (or known commodity) than Randy Johnson. Here are the only numbers that matter to me on this:
Smith’s flyball/groundball%, 2008: 45.5/35.2
RJ’s (age 44) K/BB, 2008: 173/44.
Both Moyer and RJ have good command. That’s what’s allowed them to pitch so well for so long. RJ displayed no sign of losing that over a full season at 44.
WC- Chacin
I’m curious why you listed him as a WC – and probably Alderson and Bumgarner. Do you think Chacin has a shot to pitch in the Majors this year at all? It would seem rushing him to me. I could see maybe a September call up, but even that may be questionable.
Chacin will start the season in Tulsa as a 21 year old.
Rockies pitchers that have been promoted from AA to the big leagues in the same season in the O’Dowd era include Jason Jennings as a 22 year old in 2001, Aaron Cook as a 23 year old in 2002, Ubaldo Jimenez as a 22 year old in 2006, and Franklin Morales as a 21 year old in 2007. Several of these call-ups occurred before September. Chacin fits a pattern for the Rockies GM, as do Bumgarner and Alderson for Sabean. If these prospects are performing at a high level in the minors and their MLB parents could use the help, I don’t think they’d be kept back, hence they become wildcards. Given his GB tendencies, I could see Chacin passing Reynolds and Hirsh on the depth chart this season if the latter two don’t step up their performances.
You got the Rockies a bit wrong....
JDLR and Smith should be flip-flopped, based on their respective 2nd half performances and obvious difference in stuff. JDLR is “stable bottom” material, and Smith is a suspect given his number of innings, out of line with his minor league history, as well as horrid ERA after the All-Star break. Also, coming from a pitcher’s park in Oakland as a flyball pitcher makes Smith a definite “wild card”, ESPECIALLY if you think JDLR is (which I don’t).
You also forgot about Josh Fogg. He’s a definite wild card who a year ago would hae been categorized as “stable bottom” if he had re-signed with the Rockies.
I'd hardly call DLR "stable"
He was extremely inconsistent for 4 years prior to coming to the Rockies, and that MO carried over to the mountain time zone. He didn’t put it together until the last two months of the season. He’s certainly the biggest wild card of the rotation…Were those two months a mirage and will he return to his career form?
"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 8, 2009 1:27 PM MST up reply actions
My point was that JDLR is more stable....
than Smith. No way should one be ranked ahead of the other simply on the basis of total innings pitched in a pitcher’s park. Maybe they are both wild cards, but I certainly don’t see Smith as more proven or “stable”, as RoxGirl puts it, than JDLR.
Mid season trade help
I think you may be surprised with what teams can get for high salaried pitchers and hitters this season with the economy in a recession. Most teams are worried if they will lose fans and sponsorships in 2009. Could make it much easier for teams to trade for the likes of Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb among the pitchers who could become available should the Astros or DBacks start out of the gate slowly and attendance drops.
raygu
This is an interesting thought
but I think for MOST teams…the poor economy won’t allow them to get a big money player. Like most feeling the financial crunch…spending MORE..just isn’t an option. However, it may be that some teams will be happy to just unload the big contract and won’t be as concerned about the return (sure return will be important…just not as important).
So there may be some trades this year, that might not have been made in the past.
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
I think
you underestimate the back end of Arizona’s rotation. Let’s take a small sample of pitchers on this list and show their MLB numbers for the last three years along with their ERA+ and IP:
Barry Zito (middle) – 2008, 85 ERA+, 180 IP. 2007, 98 ERA+, 197 IP. 2006, 116 ERA+, 221 IP
Randy Wolf (middle) – 2008, 93 ERA+, 190 IP. 2007, 97 ERA+ 103 IP. 2006, 84 ERA+, 57 IP
Jonathan Sanchez (middle) – 2008, 87 ERA+, 158 IP. 2007, 75 ERA+, 52 IP. 2006, 91 ERA+, 40 IP.
Jon Garland (bottom) – 2008, 91 ERA+, 197 IP. 2007, 112 ERA+, 208 IP. 2006, 105 ERA+, 211 IP.
Doug Davis (bottom) – 2008, 107 ERA+, 146 IP. 2007, 111 ERA+, 193 IP. 2006, 92 ERA+, 203 IP.
I’m not sure what you’re seeing in these numbers that makes you put Wolf and Sanchez in a tier above Davis and Garland. Also, while these sort of lists can be a useful tool, for purposes of understanding, it’s probably best to have a tippy-top tier with Webb, Haren, Billingsley and Lincecum. The difference between an excellent 135+ ERA+ starter and a very good 115-120 ERA+ one is huge.
That would put the tiers at around the following ranges (I ordered them within tiers by my own personal rankings):
130+ (excellent)-
Webb
Lincecum – If Timmy has one more season like last he passes Webb.
Billingsley
Haren – I tried to think of a hundred different reasons to ranks Haren ahead of Billingsley, but the only one with any merit is Haren’s inning-eater status, but even that becomes negligent as Bills now enters his fourth season in the majors and the kid wheels come off.
115+ (Very good with the potential for an All Star season now and then) –
Cain – still waiting for him to make the leap.
Cook – pass.
Jimenez – see Cain.
Kuroda – I’m skeptical about his second go-around, but he should be given the chance to prove he can’t before we say he can’t.
95+ (the oft-overlooked, but still valuable league average inning eaters) –
Johnson – Would be higher if not for age concerns.
Davis
Garland – He has the best mix of short and long-term success of any of these pitchers, but any time a low k-rate pitcher sees an ERA spike, you have to be worried.
Zito – I except him to rebound to 2007 levels for a few more years.
Wolf – has to prove that those 12 games in Houston weren’t a fluke – also that he can stay healthy for two year in a row.
Sanchez – only here because of potential. If he can work on his control he has the stuff to be very good. That’s a huge if.
The rest are too numerous, too varied and (for the most part) too inconsequential to take the time to break down in this post.
Rox Girl
tends to undervalue Dbacks a bit, in general….
"Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play." - Joe Posnanski
I'm sure
Gaslamp Ball, True Blue LA, and AZ Snakepit feel equally disrespected. It’s the nature of fandom, both ways.
"Winning doesn't really matter as long as you win." - Vinny Jones
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 9, 2009 2:35 PM MST up reply actions
Well screw TBLA and GLB.
All I know is the Dbacks, so that’s my point of reference.
"Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play." - Joe Posnanski
I think she undervalues the rest of the NL West in general.
Although that is probably the natural consequence of having a rooting interest in one of the teams.
by Brendan Scolari on Feb 10, 2009 1:22 PM MST up reply actions
I thought it was a very good writeup
Although I would put Doug Davis and Jon Garland in the stable middle category
by Brendan Scolari on Feb 10, 2009 1:21 PM MST reply actions
This
By the way, the AZSnakepit does not take responsibility for, nor condone, any alcohol-related accidents or injuries incurred, directly or indirectly, as a result of reading this website.
"This"
as a one-word response generally means someone is expressing agreement.
By the way, the AZSnakepit does not take responsibility for, nor condone, any alcohol-related accidents or injuries incurred, directly or indirectly, as a result of reading this website.
Thou art forgiven,
my son.
;-)
By the way, the AZSnakepit does not take responsibility for, nor condone, any alcohol-related accidents or injuries incurred, directly or indirectly, as a result of reading this website.
by DbacksSkins on Feb 10, 2009 10:18 PM MST up reply actions
LOL
It actually came up again like 30 minutes ago. I wrote something and someone responded with “this”, but this time I knew what they were talking about! Funny how that works. You’re such an educator. ;-)
by Brendan Scolari on Feb 10, 2009 10:34 PM MST up reply actions
Glad
to be of service.
By the way, the AZSnakepit does not take responsibility for, nor condone, any alcohol-related accidents or injuries incurred, directly or indirectly, as a result of reading this website.
by DbacksSkins on Feb 10, 2009 10:40 PM MST up reply actions
Garland? Really?
I mean, if he’s getting the bump based on 200IP/season, sure, but he needs to look a lot more like the ’05 and ’07 Garland, and he was already in a weak division in ’08
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum
by Andrew Martin on Feb 10, 2009 9:32 PM MST up reply actions
Weak division
in a stronger league.
By the way, the AZSnakepit does not take responsibility for, nor condone, any alcohol-related accidents or injuries incurred, directly or indirectly, as a result of reading this website.
by DbacksSkins on Feb 10, 2009 10:15 PM MST up reply actions
If Zito's in the middle tier
I don’t see why Garland isn’t.
by Brendan Scolari on Feb 10, 2009 10:35 PM MST up reply actions
I could see this...
Again, I wasn’t really meaning for this to be predictive in anyway, just trying to put players into relative spots. Apparently the consensus seems to be that I underestimate Garland to some degree, so I’d probably bump him to that level were I to make a rewrite.
It could very well be my well known Snake bias that caused me to underrate him and Davis, I’d accept that.
Well...
at least you’ll admit that you have a problem. ;-)
By the way, the AZSnakepit does not take responsibility for, nor condone, any alcohol-related accidents or injuries incurred, directly or indirectly, as a result of reading this website.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Have you criticized Hanley Ramirez on Twitter? Your name may be on his bat!
- U.S. senator cries foul over Nationals plans to take back park from Phillies fans
- Photo: Comerica Park readies itself for Hockeytown
- Podcast: Dirk Hayhurst talks about Italy, the reality of the big leagues and his new book
- Dennis ‘Oil Can’ Boyd claims he used cocaine before a majority of his games
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
