Why the Rockies should have taken a flyer on Shawn Hill
So this article became kind of moot yesterday when the stupid Padres picked up Shawn Hill, but you still get to enjoy my article on why we should've picked him up.
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Remember a couple months ago how much the Rockies were trying to land Tim Redding? We even went as far as to offer Willy Taveras - who of course, we later cut - to the Nationals for this pitcher.
What on earth were we thinking?
Dan O'Dowd gets the strangest fixations on the crappiest pitchers. I'm not going to take the time to go through the past 5 years and point them out, but Tim Redding was the most recent O'Dowd ManCrush.
Redding isn't an AWFUL pitcher. He's a serviceable back-end starter. He pup up an ERA of 4.95 last season over 182 innings, and FIP supports his performance, clocking in at 4.93. He pretty much performed as well as you'd expect him to, defense or no. Redding used a mediocre combination of K9, BB9, and HR9 to build those numbers (5.93, 3.21, 1.34) along with a GB% of 39.8 (below average), and while none of them would impress anyone too much, he did have a K/BB ratio of 1.85 and a WHIP of 1.43. I'll be honest, those numbers aren't terrible, but why was O'Dowd so intent on picking him up? He would've also cost the team between $1.5-2.5M, pretty much guaranteeing him a roster spot, so if he stunk, there's not much we could do with him.
Especially when another Nationals starter was close by and could more than likely be had for a song?
Shawn Hill would come with a pile of baggage. Inside that baggage, you would find gauze, tape, bandaids, ibuprofen, ice packs, slings, and a little black book full of physical therapists' numbers. Over the past 3 seasons, Hill has put together 197.1 IP over 34 starts. Most certainly not impressive, but completely understandable when you consider the number of injuries he's had. He stunk up an ERA of 5.83 in 2008, but had a FIP of only 4.06. That .373 BABIP (compared to a career .324) really doesn't help things in that regard, as he was clearly tipping, or getting unlucky, but basically not pitching to his ability.
The upsides of Hill involve his sinker and the ensuing GB% that comes with it. Hill's sinker comes in at about 90 mph, and according to his Pitch F/X data, he gets around 11-12 inches of break on it (about 6 in the vertical, 10 in the horizontal - for comparison, Cook gets about 9 inches, roughly the same vertical but less horizontal). Take that and add in decent control and you get a Career 50.1%GB. Downright impressive, and it sounds to me like the kind of guy we should've been looking for. I know he's totally injury prone, but what if we could get 15-17 starts out of him? Who knows, maybe we could've worked some sort of healing magic over him to get him back in one piece.
However, instead of watching the bargain bin, we instead move forward with guys like Josh Fogg who can throw a splitter effectively enough, but don't have much of a future starting anymore. This far into Spring Training, we've seen a lot of our question mark guys kind of fizzle and look like the low end of what we were hoping (Smith, Hirsh, Fogg, Reynolds), and while we have seen some upsides (Morales, Chacin), it's sounding like we're in the market for more pitching depth for sure. Hill would've been a great addition, even if it was only for a dozen starts or so.
In reading this, you might've stumbled across the RMN method for valuing pitcher ability ©. For those of you who DIDN'T, I'll go ahead and break it down for you.
I'm firmly of the position that the things you can evaluate hard-and-fast for a pitcher are Strikeouts, Walks, and Home Runs. All have park effects related to them, but they're pretty much the only things that a pitcher can control. A really good pitcher also won't give up many hits, but there are a lot of variable that may make one pitcher look downright hittable and another one look like a lockdown ace.
So K9, BB9, and HR9 are the things I look at. First and foremost, I look at HR9, but that isn't enough to DQ a pitcher. I like to see a HR9 lower than 1.00. Next, I want to see K9 and BB9. A pitcher with a good K rate (6 and up), a good BB rate (3ish, lower), and by extension a solid K/BB (North of 1.5-1.6) will get a bit of forgiveness in a suboptimal HR9, because you're not seeing them put a lot of guys on base via BB to get driven in on those HRs, or they just strike everyone else out after letting someone on.
Finally, and this is the fun one: GB%. With our potential IF defense, GB% can make you forget a LOT of the unsatisfactory areas above, for obvious reasons. League Average GB% in 2008 was about 43% - think Zack Greinke, John Danks, Armando Galarraga, or Jeff Francis. Hill has a 50.1% career GB, so yeah, you can see where he might be someone to keep an eye on.
A few young pitchers to keep in the book-o'-cheap-trade-targets include Brad James from Houston, Jaime Garcia from St. Louis, Dallas Trahern from Detroit, Dallas Buck with Cincy, and Robert Mosebach with the Angels, just to name a few potential young groundballing pitchers. - Several of these pitchers may have swapped teams, I was going off of what Baseball Cube told me, feel free to correct me.
As long as we're on this short tangent, Mark Mulder might be a decent pickup, despite his probable inability to keep his arm on his shoulder. He has a strong history of groundballing, could come for a minor league contract.
Anyhow, the scrap heap isn't too full anymore, but who knows what other players will be released in the next 2 weeks here that we could use to fill out or terribly thinning ranks.
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Comments
Typical
this organization is all about the following.
1. Keep it cheap
2. Hope to strike lightning in a bottle. (Recycling should give them some Green tax incentives in the Obama socialist movement.)
3. Never again any high priced pitching deals (Too many tire tracks)
4. Historically very challenged in developing starting pitching volume and quality.
5. Historically challenged in drafting high and making the right picks
6. Never sign any pitcher /player to a long term deal or any player approaching or past 30.
The bottom line is they will never improve the team from the outside unless it is bargain basement. The starting pitching they have thrown ourt there the last two seasons is proof positive.
by PinchHitLancePainter on Mar 25, 2009 11:04 AM MDT reply actions
Which is all fine
as long as they continue to hit it big with Latin teenagers. It’s entirely conceivable that the first three spots in the rotation will be filled with undrafted talent in a few years.
As long as they continue to fill the bottom of the rotation with cheap, drafted talent, they will be ok. Problem is it takes a long time to develop these kids from down south.
Starters like Redding...
and Shawn Hill, and Josh Fogg, and Kip Wells…and on and on and on are a dime a dozen. The fact of the matter is, a fifth starter is a crap shoot. You have no idea what you are going to get. The Shawn Estes’ of the world will always have a job because they have had a tiny amount of success. If you can get a fifth starter who can go .500, you have done a good job.
What he said
But…there is something to say about volume. The more 5th starters we have around, it increase the chance that ONE of them will be rolled a 7 in that game of craps
Rockies Mgr. Clint Hurdle on what needs improvement in 09: "Our Record"
As long as we're going to have a revolving door at the #5 spot
and I’m afraid we will, we might as well have as many people as possible to throw up against the wall to see if they stick.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Mar 25, 2009 2:41 PM MDT up reply actions
It's almost beaneball
Finding value however you can. Hill has a career FIP of 4.11, which is pretty good.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Mar 25, 2009 2:47 PM MDT up reply actions
Especially when considering
Ubaldo’s career FIP is 4.12
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 25, 2009 3:54 PM MDT up reply actions
The Padres also
traded for Eulogio De La Cruz today. He’s not exactly a Shawn Hill, but San Diego appears to be far more aggressive in trying to improve their team. I hope the front office proves me wrong by trading Baker and Torrealba for rotation help.
Do you take Counting Rocks requests? If so, I’d like to know the difference between WAR and VORP…
Aut Vincam Aut Periam
If you mean WARP, then sure. Actually, sure either way.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Mar 25, 2009 10:44 PM MDT up reply actions
uh...
yeah that too.
Aut Vincam Aut Periam
by PioneerSkies on Mar 25, 2009 11:03 PM MDT up reply actions
Well we all know what WAR is
and UHHHH Whatis it good for?!
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Mar 26, 2009 8:25 AM MDT up reply actions
ABSOLUTELY NUTHIN!
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 26, 2009 8:31 AM MDT up reply actions
^5
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Mar 26, 2009 8:56 AM MDT up reply actions
Seriously though, what kinds of stuff would we like to see?
RoxGirl suggested at one point I debate over projections on what we think our players are going to do.
I could write more introduction-to-advanced-stats articles, similar to what PF did while covering for me.
I could kind of tag-team with Rockies Retro and do columns about why Blake Street Bomber X was or was not the real deal.
I could write articles over why I think or don’t think that young players are worth getting excited over.
Problem is that we beat our own players’ evaluations to death, I’m starting to have to look outside the team. It should get better as the season goes on, I can tell you why you shouldn’t buy into Hawpe’s .334/.451/.603 spring batting line and such eventually, but for now, I’m kind of floundering.
We all are I do believe.
Is it April yet?
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
all of those
sound like good ideas, especially the projections debate
Aut Vincam Aut Periam
by PioneerSkies on Mar 26, 2009 10:39 PM MDT up reply actions





















