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Sunday Rockpile: Taking a peek at some early season team stats

Some early season NL rankings for the Rockies:

Relief ERA: 5.73 12th (the Dodgers are at 3.13, Padres at 2.52, D-backs at 6.55, Braves at 7.75.)

Starter ERA: 4.42, 6th (Dodgers at 3.33, D-backs at 4.45, Giants at 5.55, the Phillies are at 7.71).

The Rockies, however are only averaging 5.3 innings per start (tied with the Giants at 13th in the NL) everybody else in the division is getting at least one more out from their starters. I don't know how sustainable the run prevention is, nothing seems too terribly out of whack, but so far other than that one or two additional outs per start, our starters have been giving us about as much as we should be able to expect from them.

For our relievers, I think the most damaging stat right now is their 0-3 record. Only Washington and St. Louis have done worse and nothing will turn a fan base off quicker than watching games they had hopes to win slip away late. Rockies relievers have tallied only four holds as a team, and have allowed eight inherited runners to score. The Rockies really haven't had many high leverage situations, but they've been pretty bad at it thus far.

Team BABIP allowed: .308

The Dodgers are allowing only a .196 batting average against thus far and just a .243 BABIP. Last season the league average was .300, and the best team at preventing hits off contact was the Cubs at .284. The best team BABIP against figure over the last five years in the NL is .280, achieved by the 2006 Padres and 2004 Cardinals. The upshot is that the Dodgers might be good, but right now, they're also very lucky. Their pitching will be drifting back toward the crowd as the season progresses.

Team BABIP (hitting): .264 (13th in NL)

Team ISO: .210 (first in the NL)

The Rockies on offense are showing some weird splits that can't continue over 162 games. The good news is that the batting average of the team is almost certain to rise considerably over the course of the season, the bad news is that the rate the Rockies hit for power is certain to drop substantially. The end result, however, will likely point to an offense that's considerably better than the one that we've seen the first ten games. The Rockies 12.1% HR/FB rate is tops in the NL right now, but between one and a half and two percentage points higher than the league leader typically winds up with at the end of the season.

SO rate: 23.8% (2nd in NL)

BB rate: 10.3% (8th in NL)

Of the seven teams that had higher than league average K rates in 2008, four had winning records and two, Milwaukee and Chicago, went to the playoffs. A high team K rate isn't necessarily as terrible a thing as some would have you believe, especially if it's accompanied by a decent number of walks and power. The Rockies have been displaying both so far. 23.8% on K's is a bit high, but not likely to continue throughout the year, high K teams will typically settle around 20%. The key for the Rockies will be to keep that walk rate over 10%. This isn't too say that Patrick Saunders is wrong in pointing out that the Rockies have to do a better job of protecting the plate with runners on, though.

What they don't want to wind up with is an offense like Arizona, that goes for extra base hits or nothing. Watching how the team takes pitches and uses the opposite field is important.

 

Alright, enough of that, how about some links:

Franklin Morales will start Tuesday, according to insidetherockies.com

Ringolsby also writes that Aaron Cook needs to find his sinker and soon if the Rockies hope to compete.

Troy Renck writes up the Padres and in a note says that the reason he seems to have missed on thinking that the Diamondbacks would win the division is Justin Upton. It's a start, but once he and everybody else that liked the Snakes this year acknowledges that they underrated Jason Marquis and overrated Jon Garland, then I think we'll be talking. The D-backs offense is a little more unlucky in the BABIP department than the Rockies so far, they'll be better before the season is out.

 

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Renck's take on Halladay
Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi doesn’t want to trade Halladay, but if his team falls out of contention, the right-hander will likely be shopped. If that happens, the Rockies need to unload the farm to land the hometown ace, budget be damned. With all due respect to Aaron Cook, Darryl Kile, Jeff Francis, Mike Hampton and Pedro Astacio, the Rockies have never had a pitcher like Halladay. He’s a beast who keeps his pitch counts down, allowing him to consistently reach the 220-inning threshold.

Does Troy actually know something or is he just speculating like we do. I wonder what O’Dowd thinks.

by moomacher on Apr 19, 2009 9:47 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

If this comes about, what with the Monforts' claim that there are no dollars to be added to the payroll,

it would be the biggest surprise of the season.

And as I look at our pitching and continue to pray for improvement, I look at the one consistent piece over the past several years….Bob Apodaca. What’s his story? Does he get the most he can out of what he’s been given to work with. Or is he not a very good pitching coach?

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton

by pedalpusher on Apr 19, 2009 11:32 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm going to step back away from the ledge

for the moment.

I don’t like what I see from this team. Not starting pitching, not relief pitching (though some tweaks are needed out there). It’s the hitting. There are too many players on this team, that look like they have no clue what they are doing out there. They look like a major league fastball is too much for them (Barmes), they’ve never seen a slider before (Tulo, Iannetta), or can’t pick up location (Spilly, Smith, Atkins) or they just can’t get a bat head around fast enough to do anything but slap a ball to the left side (Helton).

And of the only 3 players hitting, two can’t seem to start because of our managers great genius (Fowler, Stewart).

Do I think this team’s batting average will stay this low? No….but I am concerned that when it rebounds, it won’t be good enough to carry an average to slightly better than average pitching staff. I’m also worried that if/when the hitting gets better, it will be too late, and the Rockies will be buried alive.

On a side Rant/Question: What IS up with Helton? Is he really too old and slow and done? What about his great spring training? was that a mirage against AA relief pitchers? And if not….what happened? I’m all over on this one…and I think I argued the point this last week from each angle. I do know that right now he is hurting this team (as are other Rockies hitters)

Side Rant/Question #2: Why is our best (and only true) 2nd baseman in Colorado Springs?

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Apr 19, 2009 10:02 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Three of Helton's home runs in ST were off MLB #3 starters or better

One was off Milwaukee ace Yovani Gallardo. One was off a #2 pitcher of a 9-3 team (Chris Young) and the #3 pitcher of a 7-4 team (Kyle Davies).

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 19, 2009 10:09 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

you posted this yesterday in the game thread

(and thanks for reposting here as I don’t think everyone reads the game threads)

And this gives me both hope….and mixed up feelings. In away, if he has stunk in ST too, than it would be easier to take, and understand, that Helton was just at the end of his career (which happens to everybody)

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Apr 19, 2009 10:11 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let me indulge myself for a second

If I were the manager of this team my line up would look like this

Fowler-CF
Spilly-lf
Stewart-3b
Atkins-1b
Hawpe-RF
Iannetta/Torrealba-C
Tulowitzki-SS
(Pitcher)-P
Eric Young Jr-2nd

Bench:
Helton-1b
S. Smith
Barmes-Utility IF
Baker

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Apr 19, 2009 10:10 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Switch Spilly/Smith....

and I could accept the lineup, though EY JR’s. defense is still suspect.

Spilly is striking out way too much, and I am starting to think that he’s the type of player who does well when below the radar screen, but not as any everyday starter. Smith should make all the starts in LF against righties, and Spilly can be his platoon partner and part-time CFer when Fowler needs to sit. An OF of Smith, Fowler, and Hawpe is a must against the righties with strong platoon splits. I also like Smith’s power/patience combo.

Sadly, this early season may have exposed Spilly as the 4th outfielder type he has always been.

by GoRoxGo on Apr 19, 2009 11:08 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know about that...

I’d still be inclined to believe that Spilborghs’ 750 plus career PA’s would be more indicative of his usual K rate than the 40 or so he’s had this season. I’m guessing the high K rate with him thus far is nothing to be too worried about.

by Rox Girl on Apr 19, 2009 11:23 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

But Spilly Did amazing in ST!

Then again, so did Todd, and Chris, and Tulo-

wait, that’s not really my point. I think Spilly’s going to need some time to get used to playing everyday. Playing six days a week when you’re used to maybe playing one puts a lot of stress on your body. Now here’s where you say, “But they train everyday! Aren’t they used to it?” Well, yeah, they’re better with it than most people. But the intensity of a game is hard to recreate weight training and running on a treadmill. You don’t get the wicked fastballs and changeups and sliders during Batting Practice. You’ve got to make adjustments. I believe that’s why Spilly was on fire the first few games, and then went downhill. His body got worn out, but he’s going to be coming back up soon, cause he’s getting used to it.

Besides, Seth isn’t doing much better. In fact, most of our team isn’t doing much better. That’s one more reason for not rushing into roster changes. If we bench one player this early on, we might as well just switch them all with AAA.

by Rockie4Ever on Apr 19, 2009 11:24 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fowler and Stewart need to start every day

What ever else is needed to make that happen just needs to be done.

And why do we keep Omar Q. on this roster. It’s not like we don’t have enough guys who can play multiple positions. Barmes could play SS if needed. When Q. came in to pinch hit yesterday, the moan from The Rockies Room was so audible that my wife asked if anything was wrong.

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton

by pedalpusher on Apr 19, 2009 11:40 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is the Rockies room your Man Cave?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 19, 2009 11:41 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep.

That’s what I call it.

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton

by pedalpusher on Apr 19, 2009 11:43 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree with all of this

I. Stewart on the bench is silly. And nothing personal against Q, but he’s just not that good and utterly superfluous with Barmes on the team. I’m not sure Dex is ready for the fulltime gig, but I’m willing to find out.

by Teekalong on Apr 19, 2009 12:05 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Q sucks.

I’ve espoused this several times. His roster spot could be filled by, I don’t know, Matt Murton or somebody useful..

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Apr 19, 2009 1:51 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eric Young jr.: av. 0.321, 9 Hits, 5 SB in 6 games with the Sky Sox

"Never judge a player over a unit of time shorter than a month." Thomas Boswell in: Why Time Begins On Opening Day

by germanrockie on Apr 19, 2009 10:11 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1 for Reed Saxon

There is no picture that could have better captured Cook’s start

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 19, 2009 10:28 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Keeping with the team stats

I read an article over at Fangraphs talking about how insanely good the Mariners OF defense was, it then mentioned that the Rockies were the second best team so far in terms of UZR.

by Resolution on Apr 19, 2009 11:27 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I think

it’s a shot drink you get on a Mediterranean vacation. (I could be wrong)

"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009

by Redhawk on Apr 19, 2009 11:30 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

oh, ok, that makes sense.

and we’re second best in terms that Hurdle drinks way to many of those before a game, causing very stupid managerial moves.

by Rockie4Ever on Apr 19, 2009 11:34 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's a defense statistic

that basically looks at the range of the players and how good they are at covering their positional zone (UZR = Ultimate Zone Rating).

by Resolution on Apr 19, 2009 11:35 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

that makes even more sense than what Redhawk said

our defense is the best part of our team right now, which isn’t really saying much, but it’s good to know that we’re one of the best teams for something

by Rockie4Ever on Apr 19, 2009 11:38 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's prety surprising

whatwith Hawpe in right, Spilborghs in center and Stewart at second some.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 19, 2009 11:40 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was outfield,

nothing was mentioned about infield although how many times has Stewart actually played 2b this year? 2, 3 times?

And yea, Hawpe missed a couple of games and I guess the Fowler starts are helping with that. Hopefully our OF UZR isn’t too smoke and mirrors generated…

by Resolution on Apr 19, 2009 1:59 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Rockies have the second best defense overall according to UZR

If you look at the FanGraphs site, so while the article was talking specifically about the OF, the ranking applies to everything.

by Rox Girl on Apr 19, 2009 2:36 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wasn't aware

that FanGraphs actually tracked defensive stats too….

Insert witty and/or humorous signature here.

by DbacksSkins on Apr 21, 2009 2:07 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

My take on things

Rockies aren’t going to contend this year from what I see of things. With that said, they need Atkins to get on the ball to increase his trade value so we can maybe get something good for him midseason. I never have liked Atkins as much, I think he is “easily” replaceable. He is a good hitter, but overrated IMO.
But Fowler needs to start every day from what I’ve seen. Stewart needs to start. Play the young guys geez. I like Helton, but he has looked horrible out there, plus he is NOT a #3 hitter.

by TehChamp on Apr 19, 2009 4:04 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Hrrrmmmm....

Marquis vs. Garland…. hrrrmmmm….

Insert witty and/or humorous signature here.

by DbacksSkins on Apr 21, 2009 2:08 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

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