Thursday Rockpile: Huston Street wins closer role, Corpas velocity a concern
by Rox Girl on Apr 2, 2009 8:57 AM MDT
in Rockpile
127 comments
Troy Renck's sources say that Huston Street has nudged out Manny Corpas in the role of ninth inning reliever. The report does have some troubling news in two mph drop in the speed of Corpas' sinker. He's been effective this Spring even without the velo, but this will be something to watch going forward.
Huston Street shouldn't need to be going to batting practice very often this season if all goes well. Purple Row file photo courtesy Poseidon's Fist
Patrick Saunders disagrees with the verdict, saying Corpas "has earned it". I think everybody here knows that my own opinion from a fan perspective is that it doesn't really matter, your reliever that shuts down the opponents' 3-4-5 hitters in the eighth inning of a close ballgame should probably deserve more credit than the guy who does the same with the 6-7-8 hitters in the ninth. From a player's perspective, however, that label does increase a reliever's earning power. The good news for Corpas is that with his contract, he has plenty of time to get the label back.
For the final roster slot, a potential trade for either the Rays Jason Hammel or the Cubs Chad Gaudin has Juan Morillo's status in limbo. Morillo has looked the most likely internal candidate to win that spot, but the interest in Gaudin and Hammel and the long look they gave Belisle indicates that the Rockies are looking for a guy who can pitch multiple innings, more than two in an appearance if necessary, for that spot, a right handed counterpart to Glendon Rusch, which is something that Morillo doesn't seem particularly well suited to.
Updated Belisle mugshot via mlb.mlb.com
The real issue with whoever they decide to go with will be what becomes of them once Taylor Buchholz returns. Keep in mind that should the Rockies make a trade right now and cut Morillo and Belisle, they could lose up to two players for one (Morillo or Belisle --one was going to get cut anyway-- and whoever they give up in the trade). Then if they are intent on keeping Hammel or Gaudin all season, it could become a situation where they are either required to give up three players for the one middle reliever (the three aforementioned, plus whoever needs to be put on waivers when Buchholz returns: Speier? Rusch? Grilli?) unless they wanted to option Corpas or are just trading for a one month rental.
For this reason and the fact that we've got more leverage in this situation, I've come to be pretty set against a trade that involves giving up anything more than cash considerations or a minor league depth type of player. It's definitely a situation that could come back to bite O'Dowd pretty hard, if any of the players lost or cut contributes more than the guy we receive in a trade, it's a losing situation, but given the fickle nature of pitching, there's a chance that multiple lost players could contribute more and that would be disaster.
The last linked Denver Post article allows us to put together Clint Hurdle's opening day lineup:
- Ryan Spilborghs CF
- Seth Smith LF
- Todd Helton 1B
- Garrett Atkins 3B
- Brad Hawpe RF
- Troy Tulowitzki SS
- Chris Iannetta C
- Clint Barmes 2B
- Aaron Cook P
Hurdle says that Dexter Fowler would bat first or second and Ian Stewart sixth when they're used. The fact that both were brought up certainly is a reflection of the hope that they can make an impact and the intent to give them plenty of PA's this season, as you'll note that no such specification was given for reserves Yorvit Torrealba, Omar Quintanilla or even Jeff Baker.
If you're finding yourself too giddy about the Rockies chances heading into opening day and need a pessimism shock to sober up, check out Baseball Prospectus' updated projections page, which now has the team finishing dead last in the division, even beneath the team that's planning to start our single A second baseman/shortstop two times a week. BP's PECOTA really doesn't like Todd Helton (according to them, Helton's less valuable at first than Jorge Cantu) Seth Smith (the division's least valuable left fielder by at least a win), Aaron Cook (Cook=Jon Garland) or Franklin Morales (7.08 ERA) among other Rockies and sees disappointing seasons for our team practically across the board. Either they've completely flubbed up our projections or I'm completely deluded, I'm curious how the season will play out.
0 recs |
127 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
You're not completely deluded
although ESPN has us projected in a tie for last as well. They are just projecting at the bottom level of our players’ ability range. I wonder why so pessimistic.
I agree with you on a Gaudin/Hammel trade. If they don’t want to lose Morillo, keep him. If they want a RH Rusch, Belisle can be a long reliever. He’s been strictly a starter the last two years, so he could handle it.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 9:07 AM MDT reply actions
Those projections
Have Colorado allowing 952 runs, and the next closest team allowing 909. The last time anything close to that happened was 2004, but even then, Arizona gave up 899 runs. Colorado is really going to allow 200 more runs than anyone else in their division post-humidor?
Color me skepticalicious.
Insert clever and witty remark slash pun here!
UMD 8/04 - 5/08: Go Terps!
Arizona gave up 899 runs
with Randy Johnson (2.60 ERA) and Brandon Webb (3.59 ERA) pitching.
Insert witty and/or humorous signature here.
The
problem is that systems like this heavily weight on recent history – which for alot of the key players for the team this year are not great.
Spilly, Smith, Fowler – don’t have much of a MLB track record.
Hawpe – 2008 good at the plate, atrocious in the field.
Helton – 2008 was not good to him, PECOTA probably doesn’t see the 1.500 spring OPS or a bounce back that we all do.
Atkins – 2008 was a down year.
Tulo – 2008 started off awful, went to the DL, finished strong – not good for projections.
Morales – Small track record, 2008 does not help him out much.
DLR – the end of 2008 was spectacular, his MLB service time up to that point, not so much.
Street and Corpas – 2008 was a down year for both.
PECOTA doesn’t like Cook, and is not that high on Marquis either.
There are alot of question marks about the team – but i think looking at the team somewhat objectively there is good depth and a ton of potential for improvement. I don’t think Rox Girl is THAT delusional.
"Better move your rental cars, I am about to take BP."
-Glendon Rusch
So....
…why do the projections like the Padres more than the Rockies then? Their lineup roster include youngsters like Headley, Hundley and Rodriquez. Don’t forget Cabrera on the bench. Walter Silva from the Mexican League is their #3 starter right now, Kevin Correia is #4. And the bullpen is a hodgepodge at the front end….
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 9:49 AM MDT up reply actions
Probably because
We’re supposed to give up TWO FREAKING HUNDRED more runs than that awesome Padres staff. If that happens I will literally eat my Rockies lid. With ketchup and mustard.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans
Hmm
de la Rosa or Correia? Marquis or Silva? Buchholz or Arturo Lopez? Embree or Eulogio de la Cruz? Grilli or Edwin Moreno? Speier or Ed Mujica? Petco Park aside, I know which staff I’d rather have at this point.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 9:54 AM MDT up reply actions
Also
PECOTA has wicked mancrushes on Kouzmanoff and Gerut. Go freaking figure.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans
CHONE does as well
Except Gerut is projected better than any Padre except Gonzalez….and Gerut will likely sit in favor of Hairston vs. LHP. Their second best hitter is a platoon player?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 10:28 AM MDT up reply actions
You tell them
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 10:00 AM MDT up reply actions
Projections are crap
I like the idea of statistical analysis, but it seems to me that most projections are total crap. No matter how much effort they put into making their systems more sophisticated, they seem to be based heavily on recent results. You could come up with something similar by just looking at the standings from the last two or three years and guessing. I realize that there isn’t really any other way to do it; you can’t predict when a young player is going to break out, or a workhorse starter is going to get injured. So if a player (i.e. Todd Helton) was injured much of the last two years, and didn’t contribute much, they just expect him to do the same this year, even if he did have corrective surgery and now appears healthy.
Plus, I think they hate the Rockies.
projections….seem to be based heavily on recent results.
That’s always the most accurate place to start. Intangibles like Helton’s back are hard to quantify, so we’re most often left saying a projection is lowballing Helton in light of that fact. Obviously, some players grossly over or under-produce their projected numbers, but some models have been pretty close on a league-wide scale for individual numbers
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 9:51 AM MDT up reply actions
Which is why it's hard to project Morales
How much of a gain do you give him now that he is healthy again? Do you just bump everything by a percentage? That doesn’t seem entirely scientific.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 9:53 AM MDT up reply actions
Exactly
Especially since no one can quantify the amount or longevity of that health. Heck, we can’t even prove he really had back problems to begin with.
Projections are just a best guess based on the data available…there’s a reason we play the game
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 9:57 AM MDT up reply actions
That's kind of where I was going.
No matter how hard they try to improve their projections, it’s just not possible to account for those sharp changes in production. So, basically, a team’s projection starts from last year’s results, and accounts for flux in and out. So obviously they are going to rank the Rockies poorly.
Last year it wasn’t uncommon for people to project the Rockies winning the division and league, based on 2007. Now, those same people say that the Rockies were just a fluke, and shouldn’t have won in 2007. I think they are wrong on both counts. Sure, the Rockies were playing over their heads in ’07, but they also have a lot of talent.
I have to say
barring an injury concern, I disagree w/ Street being named the closer as well. He has been the more consistent pitcher from day 1. I think it might be his walks that are concerning, but I still think he won the job.
I would like to see Iannetta and Smith switch spots in the order as well
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
Well, if he has lost 2mph off his slider, that's saying something
If you take out that one atrocious early outing by Street, was Corpas really more consistent? I don’t think so. Not when Street’s going through clean innings in 12 pitches every time out.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
With zero walks all spring
I like the little guy
Huston Street shouldn’t need to be going to batting practice very often this season if all goes well.
He’s already surprisingly talented at handling the bat as well.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 10:06 AM MDT up reply actions
Either way we win
I was the one advocating closing by committee like months ago.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 10:14 AM MDT up reply actions
ME ME ME ME
I’m sure other people did too. I just meant I made a fanpost about it before coming “on staff”
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 10:14 AM MDT up reply actions
With the important note that both must have stable psyches
For the same reason not everyone can handle the pressure of being a “closer,” not everyone can handle having a shared role.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 10:19 AM MDT up reply actions
well my issue is more with pitcher utilization
Call Street the closer, Corpas the Closer, Buchholz, Grilli, I don’t care, but make sure the best guy is facing the hardest hitters.
If we have to face their order from the top, I want to see Corpas then Street then Buchholz
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 10:32 AM MDT up reply actions
I wonder how open players are to the idea
If you tell K-Rod that you want him to face Helton, Atkins and Hawpe in the 8th, only to let JJ Putz get a save by getting Stewart, Torrealba and Quintanilla….will he understand that he’s being more valued and forget about the save since he has his payday already, or will he stick stubbornly to conventional thought?
Not that Street and Corpas are K-Rod, but for a league-wide example. Still, Street and Corpas have closer contracts (albeit young closer contracts). I’ll be interested to see how they do over the course of the year.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 10:37 AM MDT up reply actions
You could take it even further
And have Corpas be the fireman who comes in and puts out other pitchers messes. It may be early in the game but that way it never gets out of hand. Plus he could be used to get 4 or 5 outs which would give our offense a chance to catch up.
I would answer that by saying "yes"
he was more consistent. If Street has 1 bad outing and Corpas has 0, then I would say the guy w/ no bad outings was extremely consistent. I undertsand everyone will talk about peripherals and men on base and all those things, but the bottom line is Corpas had a better Spring when it comes to run prevention, more K/9, less H/9, a better avg and slug against. Corpas also did not give up an HR, where Street gave up a couple. The only thing Street did better was in allowing BB’s, which was not a major difference when you factor in Street hit a batter and Corpas did not. I’m only saying if you make it a competition based on ST, then Corpas was better and should have won the job. If they are not giving it to him because they are worried about an injury due to his decreased velocity then I understand.
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
I think they're worried about mechanics
They’re clearly concerned about the decreased velocity, which will equate to decreased movement, and increased hittability when facing ML hitter (face it, a lot of the batters in the late innings in ST aren’t going to be on ML rosters).
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
Right
and like I said to begin w/, if it is an injury or something else that is causing him to not look right then I get that. However, if you make it a competition and base it on who performed better, Corpas should have won that and was more consistent. BTW, they are both facing the same NON-ML caliber hitters as both pitched mostly late in games.
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
I guess I'm just going to assume...
That you haven’t read the article in today’s DP where Corpas said he’s having mechanical issues. It’s indisputed he’s throwing under 90mph right now. So, I’m really not even certain what your argument is, if not entirely based on theoretical ether. Because the reality is that Corpas, while getting good results (while still walking an uncomfy # of batters), is not pitching to his established physical norm.
According to scouts who have seen him multiple times, he is averaging 89 mph with his sinker — 2 mph slower than normal. Corpas said he is working through a mechanical glitch, focusing on driving his left arm toward the plate instead of the ground.
To me, that doesn’t sound like a basis to give him the closer’s job, unless you’re debating just to debate. No one has voiced any mechanical or physical concerns about Street at all.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
Not a debate for the sake of debate
I read that article, but the loss of velocity is not major enough to be sure it is an injury, and I can see from it that they are concerned about him mechanically, so like I said I get that. You argued that beyond that he has not been more consistent, and I think you’re wrong on that, I think Manny has been more consistent and better and from a pure performance standpoint Manny should have won the job. If the team comes out and says the only reason he did not get the job was because of a mechanical flaw they are working through or an injury they are concerned about, then I would be in agreement that Street should get the job. If they are picking Street based on performance and consistency alone, then I disagree w/ the decision and think it should have been Manny, thats my argument.
I also think if I were Manny I would not be happy about it, and I just hope it doesn’t affect him mentally. I hope he uses it to pitch even better, but he may hold a grudge considering he has given more to the team and pitched better in the “open competition.” Again all of this is moot if there are other issues contributing to his loss in velocity.
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
I think another thing to note, is that if Street is successful in the Closer spot, it does reestablish some value for him on the trade market. I don’t presume that many MLB clubs actually value the save – but establishing that he can handle a high pressure situation (as PF notes below) could go a long way to helping Street build some value for himself.
"Better move your rental cars, I am about to take BP."
-Glendon Rusch
I have trouble believing they DON'T buy the Saves still
But I’d be pleased with the progression of analysis if they did discard saves.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 10:33 AM MDT up reply actions
I guess
I give most front offices a little more credit than that – although we did pick up Jason Marquis the WINNAR
"Better move your rental cars, I am about to take BP."
-Glendon Rusch
we dumped Vizcaino
and added 175-200 innings to our staff. don’t kid yourself.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 1:37 PM MDT up reply actions
Valverde trade to Houston, anyone?
Then again, Houston’s roster is pretty much constructed like a fantasy roster on the cheap.
Insert witty and/or humorous signature here.
Then again, Houston’s roster is pretty much constructed like a fantasy roster from 2002
fixed that for ya
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 1:56 PM MDT up reply actions
This picture for matt belisle is better
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
Good idea
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 9:57 AM MDT up reply actions
He needs a :C
All of our new incoming players need a :C
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
actually yeah belisle does...
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 10:09 AM MDT up reply actions
You should be happy now
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 10:02 AM MDT up reply actions
Win!
I like all the new pictures, it makes us look more cutting edge
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 10:08 AM MDT up reply actions
952 runs????
Texas is only projected to allow 909 runs. In a tougher league, in every bit of the launching pad that Coors is. And I know whose staff I’d much rather have.
PECOTA seems to like our offense well enough – 841 runs would be third most in MLB (Cubs, Red Sox, us) and that’s even with projections for Smith, Stewart, Fowler, Spilborghs and Helton that could easily be eclipsed. But their system – and I have a great deal of respect for PECOTA’s bonafides for the most part – has always dinged Rockies pitchers especially hard, probably because their historical data hasn’t yet caught up to the Humidor Era.
The computer can’t see Helton’s healthy back, Fowler’s swing adjustments, Morales’s improved command, etc.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans
So what is the 952 projection based on?
Last year? If we give up that many more runs than anyone in MLB, I’m a lion tamer.
It's the PECOTA logarithm
The secrets of which are more heavily guarded than the KFC Original recipe. I would reccommend reading the glossary over at the Baseball Prospectus website to get a general idea of where PECOTA comes from (when a man and a computer and a baseball encyclopedia love each other very much…) because it’s hard to explain.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans
Very very good
A “doctored” Cox quote from Scrubs:
“Daddy, where do babies projections come from?”
“Well Jack, when a man and a woman computer and baseball encyclopedia love each other very much, they close their eyes and make a wish.”
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 10:05 AM MDT up reply actions
KFC Original Recipe
Good…GOOD…
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 10:12 AM MDT up reply actions
A couple of things, the HR projections say we'll give up 190
Which would be the most since 2004 when we had Shawn Estes (30), Jason Jennings (27), Shawn Chacon (12 as our closer) and Denny Stark (9 in just 26 IP) serving them up regularly.
The other thing is that they have to be projecting us to be at or very close to the bottom when it comes to team defense.
Wrong wrong wrong wrong
They’re wrong
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrjwaqZfjIY
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 10:11 AM MDT up reply actions
+1
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 10:17 AM MDT up reply actions
PECOTA's offensive projections
On the flip side, though, I have to say PECOTA’s projections for our hitters, on balance, look about right. I can’t really quibble with the slash stats (AVG/OBP/SLG) for Spilly, Tulo, Hawpe, Iannetta and Smith. I’m expecting more power from Helton, less power from Atkins, and slightly more all the way around from the 2B spot as I doubt Barmes will siphon all the ABs there if he hits like that. Baker seems a bit overprojected, but Stewart and Fowler will play more than PECOTA’s thinking (and both their lines look a little low on the AVG) which will help the offense.
They have us for 841 runs – I think we’re about an 850-875 run offense presuming good health and the right opportunities for the right players.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans
horrible that we're keeping the good and tossing the bad
but the bad seems unfairly bad, like the rockies’ pitching staff is like a dam of home runs waiting to burst, like the humidor will burn down or something.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 10:12 AM MDT up reply actions
In the context of a 952 run pitching environment, however, something's amiss
Look at the VORP of the players rather than the slash stats to see what’s really happening. Spilly’s going to be a 16.3 VORP player offensively in 541 PA’s (which seems rather low for a team’s leadoff hitter, doesn’t it?) while he was a 17.7 VORP player in half as many as at bats last season. The offensive stats are not nearly as good when you look at what they’re really saying.
That's a good point
I didn’t think about it that way in my haste to find something in there that looked remotely positive, but you’re right, its as though the Rox will be playing their home games at Security Service Field, only it’s been relocated to the moon.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
MHCSports - Denver sports analysis from Denver sports fans
I can see a dropoff in Spills' production
But only based on BABIP. He’s always been a high BABIP hitter, but I doubt he’s going to magically drop to like .260/.330/.400. Maybe nerf his numbers from last year a bit, but he’s definitely a starting OF.
If I didn’t love the guy so much I’d say trade him.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 10:27 AM MDT up reply actions
Maybe later
when he’s not as undervalued on the market (Boras’ opinion excluded from this statement)
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 10:29 AM MDT up reply actions
will he ever not be?
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 10:30 AM MDT up reply actions
Touche
But putting up those numbers as a full-time starter would significantly increase the return for a guy near 30. He’ll be undervalued, and his numbers will always be scrutinized like any Rockie, but he will still make up ground this year if he continues producing.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 10:32 AM MDT up reply actions
I think the Rockies will have to trade one of the Hawpe/Spilly/Smith trio this year
If not during the season, certainly in the winter, there are just too many players for too few positions now.
PECOTA sees a significant drop in Spilly’s BABIP, his ISOslg, and his ISObp, his BB and K rates, and his ability to impress the ladies. It’s saying that he’s one third the player that Jody Gerut is (if Gerut had Spilly’s projected PA’s, his VORP would be 49.8). That’s hardly a starting OF, at least for a contender. PECOTA’s saying cliff, not dropoff.
that's absurd
I’m trying to be realistic and don’t think that Spills is really a borderline .900 OPS player, but come on.
I hate to say it, but him or Hawpe might be the better choices, just because they’re older than smith, etc.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 10:52 AM MDT up reply actions
I agree. I'd actually say Hawpe is clearly the most obvious choice,
Just because the sum value he brings to the team is only a bit beyond a bench role, even though he’s taking up a starter’s playing time and it will only get worse as he declines unless we can figure out a way to move him to first. I just wonder how that will play with the masses. The Rockies will be in a pickle either way, if they don’t win this season, a large part of that will be due to Hawpe and his iron glove, but the common fan will only see dingerz and get really ticked if we deal Brad. If the Rockies do win, the fans will get even angrier about trading a key piece to two of the Rockies best seasons ever.
that's the other thing,
But it still wouldn’t be enough considering how mad fans are for what we got for Holliday.
thats true.
And considering how easy it is to find outfielders, the return won’t be much to begin with. A 3/4th starter and a prospect with some upside is all we can expect.
Probably so
since he’s the only one who has been a full time starter in his career out of ALL players on the roster who can play OF…2nd place on that list would be Barmes…but that’s a moot point
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 11:09 AM MDT up reply actions
I agree
Are those projections statistically backed up at all, or are they just saying a near 30yo OF who hasn’t been a starter yet must have had fluky results due to lower PA? I’m looking forward to what Spils can contribute. And as for a trade…we’ll see where we’re at at the ASB and what each of them are producing. We only have one OF with significant starting experience on the roster….
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 10:56 AM MDT up reply actions
I'm guessing that the numbers see fluke where we see late bloomer
Statistically, a guy that doesn’t crack a starting lineup until he’s nearly thirty will typically indicate a stopgap rather than a dependable player, I would imagine.
That's the only explanation I could see
I just wasn’t sure if they statistically factored that in some how or just waved their PECOTA hand over his numbers and shrunk them…because as RMN pointed out, his peripherals on a whole are quite strong
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 11:07 AM MDT up reply actions
Also
What happens if Cargo starts to tap into his potential. We have the potential to have a very good problem on our hands.
By the way, if this spring is any indication, Spilly is just scratching his potential. I would be surprised if he is not at least a 20/20 player this year.
fair enough on that
But at his age, it’s gonna be hard to realize any further development.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 11:14 AM MDT up reply actions
Who?
Are you saying is too old to develop? Spilly? In Spilly’s case, it isn’t so much development, it’s simply playing a full season that will benifit him.
Yeah, Spilly
And I more or less agree with the fact that he’s “developed”
His counting stats (HR, etc) will obviously be better with a full season’s work, and if his rate stats (AVG, OPS) stay steady, we have a beast on our hands.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 11:44 AM MDT up reply actions
I don't mind having depth at a position
It’s way better then the alternative. What would be nice though is if we could find a way to trade it for places that we are weak at. Unfortunately there is such a scarcity of good pitching that almost nobody has depth there to deal from.
by Chacinisthefuture on Apr 2, 2009 1:05 PM MDT up reply actions
Here's a BP ESPN Insider article:
Projecting the NL Records. The article explains some of their projections, though not the Rockies at all.
Eschew Obfuscation!
I really should become an insider at ESPN and/or Prospectus
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 12:09 PM MDT up reply actions
I know what you mean
I’ve actually boycotted ESPN because they make you pay for so much of the good stuff, that I refuse to go there for the leftover and give them ad revenue, plus I got sick of their coastal bias
by Chacinisthefuture on Apr 2, 2009 1:04 PM MDT up reply actions
WHAT THE H....?
Ok, I just caught the Afternoon version of “baseball tonight” I"m not sure if this was from last night or if it was new. It was 30 min show, and was a break down of the NL West. It needed with a prediction for the NL West
72-90 ….20 games out of first, and tied with the Padres for last.
Holy crap….I’ve seen a lot of baseball in my life…I don’t think this team is THAT bad.
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
Yep
Dodgers first with 92 wins
SF 2nd 8 games back 8, 84-79
D-Backs 3rd (sorry didn’t catch their record)
Rockies and San Diego last 72-90 20 games out
Here’s the shows NL West run down in a nut shell:
1 Manny Ramirez and Orlando Hudson will PWN the NL West.
2 SF has no hitters, but a great rotation, I mean who is Pablo Sandoval? Giants haven’t replaced Barry Bonds or Vizquiel
3 Arizona has no hitting (and barely mentioned in the show)
4 Rockies have Todd Helton back, but Holliday is gone, and who is Seth Smith? he’s no Matt Holliday, but the Rockies can run leading the NL in Stolen Bases in 08
5 San Diego is trying to trade Jake Peavy, and a bunch of scrub minor leaguers
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
Notice how
they almost always select the major markets first. It ingratiates them to those viewers.
Insert witty and/or humorous signature here.
On ESPNRadio
they had a baseball show today with O (I’m not even going to attempt to spell his name, and I’m too lazy to look it up) and he actually mentioned the Rockies closer decision in his “Out of the Box” segment. I was surprised.
They actually said that the Rockies can run?
So it’s not just players in Phoenix who never make the bus trip down to Tucson, I see.
This team is so underrated this season, .500 will probably get Hurdle a new five year contract.
I wonder
if anyone bothered to inform them that Willy Taveras left.
Insert witty and/or humorous signature here.
HAHAHAHA
the Rockies can run leading the NL in Stolen Bases in 08
That is rich. Over 100 SBs left the 2008 team in the offeseason between two players alone.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 8:29 PM MDT up reply actions
San Fran
2 SF has no hitters, but a great rotation, I mean who is Pablo Sandoval? Giants haven’t replaced Barry Bonds or Vizquel
Yes Omar Vizquel was simply the cornerstone bat of that lineup. He just batted 8th out of respect to Aaron Rowand. You know, with his -12.4 VORP on the season.
Great glove, however.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 3, 2009 8:35 AM MDT up reply actions
So, apparently,
even though the Dbacks have the better rotation and slightly better hitters, San Fran is still going to come in second.
Yeah, okay, ESPN. You want to please the viewers in the Bay Area. We get it.
Insert witty and/or humorous signature here.
But they have Timmy
“Woo-hoo”
I’d argue that Arizona actually has notably better hitters and their rotation isn’t as clearly better as you say, but that’s just my opinion. Either way, I have a hard time rationalizing Frisco over the Snakes, though it could easily happen with the right ineffectiveness/injury/surprise on the appropriate sides
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 4, 2009 1:59 AM MDT up reply actions
Projections, schmections
With all due respect to the sabermetricians here, and with a spit in the eye to the ESPNs of the world, I say we just get busy playing ball and see what happens.
The great thing about baseball is that there's a crisis every day. ~Gabe Paul
Tony Gwynn Jr
I know the club has many outfielders already, but is there anyone that doesn’t think Tony Gwynn, Jr. deserves a minor league contract offer from the club he helped get into the playoffs in 2007? The Rockies should show some gratitude and have him and Murton play the Springs outfield.
He's a free agent?
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 1:38 PM MDT up reply actions
ehh not quite
He’s being waived on Friday. It seems unlikely that he’d clear.
so let's claim him, right?
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 3, 2009 8:36 AM MDT up reply actions
I am going to tell you guys as a Rays Fan from Tampa
You don’t want Hammel. If you guys hope to not give up a lot of runs. There is a reason he did not pitch out of our Bullpen that much last year. They are keeping him hidden so his knack for giving up the longball doesn’t show too bad. In Coors he will give everyone in the place free souveniers. What ever you give the Rays to acquire him " outside of a case of baseballs and extra pine tar rags " is too much in my opinion.
I don't want Hammel
I want Neimann
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 1:48 PM MDT up reply actions
oh ho
well i want lincecum and santana and have Steinbrenner pay for santana and then put Pujols in LF till Helton retires
Seriously, why are we constantly going for crap now? Gaudin is crap, Hammel is crap, make a push for Niemann, he’s gonna be obsolete come June.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 2, 2009 1:51 PM MDT up reply actions
Yeesh
Roxgirl posted this in the game thread, it’s kind of upsetting.
So while tickets to the Rockies home opener sold out some time ago, there are still 3,000 seats available at Chase Field to see the season opener next Monday, despite the Diamondbacks having the lowest average ticket price in the majors.
Phoenix does not deserve their team.
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
I know, isn't there something just implicitly wrong with that?
I mean, say what you will about the rank and file of our fanbase, but at least we can marshal enough together to sell out our stadium on opening day.
The reason
is because most Phoenicians don’t consider themselves Phoenicians. Like I said in the GDT, over 60% of current Arizona residents were born elsewhere, and that number is even higher among the 18+ crowd. People bring their loyalties WITH them to AZ. This is the price of growth, I guess.
I’d be going, except that 1. I have work, and 2. I’d have to drive up.
Insert witty and/or humorous signature here.
Maybe then that it's just that Rockies fans are better at prioritizing...
1. Opening Day is a religious holiday and 2. what kind of practitioner of the faith are you?
Actually,
since the game isn’t until 6:40, I’m now thinking seriously of going…. would only have to leave work around 4, and I work right by I-10. (5 minutes from TEP) Hmmm…….
Add that to the fact that I’ve never been to an Opening Day game.
Insert witty and/or humorous signature here.
Go
It should be fun for those of us watching on TV to know your there. And it should be a great pitching game. I’m going to the Rockies home opener and SKIPPING A CLASS to do it.
"A great catch is like watching girls go by; the last one you see is always the prettiest." ~Bob Gibson
JFK
Crap.
My mistake. It’s a 12:40 game.
Oh well, maybe I’ll still go.
Insert witty and/or humorous signature here.
So?
Phoenix is a top five metro area. The 40% of Phoenicians that ARE residents outnumber the native Denverites. There are plenty of people to go to games.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 8:32 PM MDT up reply actions
1.68 million
outnumbers 3 million? Phoenix is the 13th largest metro area in the US. It’s not in the top 5, (According to the Census bureau) so I don’t know what you’re talking about — and the media market is 12th. The city of Phoenix proper is 5th largest in the US, only because it’s so huge and spread out.
Insert witty and/or humorous signature here.
That must be what I was talking about
There are plenty of fans in the Phoenix area to spare 50k for Opening Day.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 2, 2009 10:02 PM MDT up reply actions
Also,
I’d be interested to know what the Rox’ attendance was like, say, opening day 2005, 2006 or 2007 — you do have the advantage, after all, of having been in the World Series two years ago… check out our own history to see what that does to attendance.
Insert witty and/or humorous signature here.
Okay...via Baseball Almanac
Year….Attendance…Prev Year’s Record
2003: 48, 087 (73-89)
2004: 48,013 (74-88)
2005: 47, 661 (68-94)
2006: 47, 278 (67-95)
2007: 48, 169 (76-86)
2008: 49, 233 (90-73)
For comparison, the official attendance of Coors Field’s first game:
1995: 47,228
And the year after first playoff appearance:
1996: 50,185
So there is a small jump following a successful season (to be expected), but the attendance has been well represented even with teams FAR FAR worse than the 2009 Arizona team.
This may be Bronco Country, but the Rockies have always had good attendance on Opening Day, and quite frankly good attendance relative to success when looking at other teams. Don’t forget, Coors was #1 in attendance overall for several years after it opened.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 3, 2009 12:02 AM MDT up reply actions
For comparison, Arizona's over the same span
Year….Attendance…Prev Year’s Record
2003: 47,356 (98-64)
2004: 46,949 (84-78)
2005: 45,539 (51-111)
2006: 37,355 (77-85)
2007: 41,803 (76-86)
2008: 49,057 (90-72)
Coors outdrew Chase every year even with the threat of April weather.
During those six years:
Team——Avg. Atten.——Total Win%
COL……..48,074……………460 (1 winning season)
AZ…………44,676……………490 (3 winning seasons)
Also compare 2007, when both teams were coming off identical 2006 records. Coors tops Chase by over 6000
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 3, 2009 12:17 AM MDT up reply actions
Coors
is also a very nice park, though. And great baseball whether after…. well, after April, I suppose.
Insert witty and/or humorous signature here.
I was going to say
one of those years we had opening day and it was cold as hell.
Last year, and this year, the Rockies really jacked the price of opening day tickets up. $100 for club level this year (I was offered, I said no thanks..a 100 bucks can buy a lot of regular season games). Last year was $75 BUT you had to ALSO buy a another game opening weekend, (Sat or Sunday)
"Suck it monkeys, the Rockies will win this year", Rox Girl 1-11-2009
Haha....there's so many Opening Days after April ;-p
Coors is a nice park….I haven’t been to Chase, but it is newer….it’s not Tropicana…and it has a swimming pool!
I can’t quantify how much of an effect the “nice park” quality affects the attendance, but judging by premium events where the game takes more precedence over the park than usual (playoffs and Opening Day) and how Chase has limped to capacity, I will arbitrarily say that doesn’t completely cover the gap.
I’ve often been amazed at the attendance support at Coors Field, given the relative indifference to disdain the average sports fan has towards the Rockies. Coors is a nice park though, and that combined with good prices might explain it.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 3, 2009 1:34 AM MDT up reply actions
Well, hopefully,
after this summer I’ll be able to judge it. I’ve already mentioned my intention to hit Coors in June, and I’m possibly planning a road trip for August as well, which would definitely include staying with my cousin Meghan in Denver.
Insert witty and/or humorous signature here.
Go to games in two months in Denver
You’ll start to fall in love with the Rockies ;-)
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 3, 2009 1:24 PM MDT up reply actions
I guess it's similar
When the Cubs come to town :shakes fist:
Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.
by Andrew Martin on Apr 3, 2009 8:38 AM MDT up reply actions
Interesting survey results...
The survey says that Arizona has the lowest average ticket price, but the Rockies have the lowest average “premium” ticket price for whatever that’s worth. The team’s premium average premium ticket price of $36.50 is dwarfed by the New York Yankees average premium ticket price of $510.08, and is lower than four teams’ average non-premium ticket prices.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Create-a-Caption: Dusty Baker wants YOU to buy playoff tickets
- Padres' Heath Bell wistful about Trevor Hoffman's 600th save
- Want your first career home run? Face a pitcher from Chicago
- Slumpbot .200: Phil Hughes runs into New York's Joba Rules
- Grandstand Gems: A trio of fans got defensive on Tuesday night
SBNation.com Recent Stories
Blogroll
News and Stuff:
Official Rockies Site
Rocky Mountain News
Denver Post
Inside the Rockies
Hardball in the Rockies (Thomas Harding's blog)
The Growing Colorado Rockies Blog Avalanche:
Diamond in the Rox
Denver Baseball Observer
Rox Head
Rockies Photo Blog
Inside the Humidor
Purple Rox Squad
Rockpile Rant
View from the Rockpile
I Live for This
Rocky Mountain Way
Rockies Review
Rockiescast
Rockies Locker
Other Colorado Rockies forums/discussions:
TheScoreBoards.com
Colorado Sports blogs:
Mile High Report (Denver Broncos)
BroncoTalk (Denver Broncos)
Mile High Hockey (Colorado Avalanche)
Denver Stiffs (Denver Nuggets)
The Ralphie Report (CU Buffaloes)
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
