Thursday Rockpile: Blame our walking woes on the umps, and other early Baseball-Reference observations

by Rox Girl on Apr 23, 2009 9:44 AM MDT in Rockpile

Players are striking out too much.

Tulowitzki, Iannetta, Spilborghs. All seem to be struggling with this. So I know, you're going, well duh, Rox Girl. It took you a long time to figure that one out, huh? Yeah, that's why you guys pay me the big bucks. Okay, actually you pay Troy Renck the big bucks for making observations like that. Anyway, it turns out the next question I want to bring up is also related.

Why isn't Todd Helton walking?

Helton's workload and health are up, but he's been able to draw only three walks thus far in 53 plate appearances. He's still near the top among Rockies in seeing pitches, but for some reason has been failing to draw ball four. You're talking about a guy who throughout his career has been able to draw walks in 14.5% of his PA's dipping to under 6%. Spilborghs is in this category as well, over 10% BB's per PA for his career, below 4% for 2009. The real question is whether there's more to this than what we've been seeing.

In order to figure this out I thought I'd take a step back and look at what happens before the players get to ball four. The league as a whole has drawn walks 45% of the time after reaching three ball counts in 2009, Helton's at 21% right now, the Rockies as a team are only at 39%.

It turns out that all those walks that other teams are getting for whatever reason are turning into K's for the Rockies. 15% of the time after three balls are called a typical NL batter winds up striking out, the Rockies are doing it over 20% of the time. The team has 9% of the NL's three ball K's in 6.5% of its PA's in that situation. Is this the players fault? Are umpires colluding against the Rockies? Is this just some other weird early season anomaly that will get corrected as the season progresses? My guess and hope is the latter, because if the men in blue are out to get us, it could be a long year.

Here's another weird one to chew on if you go even a step further back. The San Francisco Giants lead the league in swung at strikes, this includes those that they make contact with and those that no contact is made with, so it probably includes plenty of balls that the team couldn't lay off of. 75% of all pitches thrown to the Giants get swung at, including 33% of all first pitches, also the most in the NL. It should be no surprise therefore that the Giants trail the NL in percentage of 3-0 counts seen. What is a bit surprising is that the Rockies are tied with them in that last category at 4%.

The Giants also trail the NL in the percentage of 2-0 counts seen. Again not surprising, the Rockies are near the middle of the pack. Why the huge drop then from 2-0 to 3-0? The Rockies aren't swinging at an inordinate amount of 2-0 pitches, just 31 of the 78 times, meaning that they looked at 47 of those pitches. Of those, only 19 were called ball three. Compare that to the Mets, who have seen 84 two balls, no strike counts and swung at just 33 of them. Of the 51 pitches they took in that situation, 33 were called ball three. Almost a complete reversal from the Rockies. Houston takes 53 pitches with two balls no strikes, has 29 called ball three. Arizona, like the Rockies also took 47 pitches but had 27 of them called ball three. Only three NL teams, the Rockies, Giants and Brewers have had more than fifty percent of their taken 2-0 pitches called for strikes. The Brewers and Giants are both at 46% of taken 2-0 pitches called ball three, the Rockies are far behind everybody at 40%, in the AL, the lowest is the Mariners at 45%.

How much has inconsistent umpiring cost the Rockies in the early going? It's hard to say, but there are definitely some signs that it's hurting them more than most.

Seth Smith should be playing everyday, Clint Barmes shouldn't be playing at all while the Rockies are on the road.

Seth Smith

#7 / Left Field / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-3

Weight: 215

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Sep 30, 1982

Baseball-Reference.com has a "Neutralized Batting" feature which is supposed to take park effects out of players' stat lines. While Barmes' result there shows that maybe the stats people are tweaking the Coors effect too much, it's eye opening. The equation believes that Barmes would have zero hits on the season thus far if the Rockies only played in neutral parks. Again, clearly overkill for our venison lover, but by how much? Barmes is and always has been a player that benefits tremendously from playing at Coors. He is a valuable player there, but seemingly nowhere else. Smith, conversely, is the least affected regular in the lineup by Coors, his neutralized line is exactly equal to his unadjusted stats.

Congratulations to Matt Daley for making it to the majors.

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This is an extremely interesting read

and something my brother-in-law and I have been throwing around, especially this year. It seems as though we are disrespected team in the league. Its obvious some of this is just watching games w/ purple tinted sunglasses, but some of this seems to be substantiated. I noticed it most clearly during the few innings I watched against the Dodgers in the Jimenez/McDonald matchup. McDonald seemed very similar to Jimenez in a lot of ways. Threw hard w/ some movement and was having trouble keeping it in the strike zone, yet I noticed him getting the borderline calls. I don’t see Jimenez get those calls. I even noticed a couple curveballs from McDonald that finished borderline in the other batter’s box that called for strikes in crucial counts no less.

I always hear announcers say, he’s not going to get the benefit of the calls since he has not had good command today, and yet McDonald got the benefit of a few calls as he was struggling w/ his command. Some of this is conspiracy theories, but some is fact that we get very little respect, especially regarding our pitching. I would like to see something similar to this write up only as it relates to our pitching.

It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.

by smokinRox on Apr 23, 2009 10:45 AM MDT reply actions

Whilst I don't entirely disagree that there have been some questionable calls from the umps recently, I think there are other more prominent reasons for our poor hitting start

I’m not too worried about Helton’s low walk rate and Spilborgh’s high K rate. Todd is still fouling off pitches, and the fact he hasn’t had too many ball fours could easily be small sample size so far, I think there will be a spike in his walk rate soon. Spilly blows hot and cold, as evidenced in ST when he got off to an 0 for whatever start, then came back to win MVP.

The two guys that are worrying me the most are Tulo and Ianetta. IMHO they are both trying too hard at the plate to make good at bats and draw the walk, which obviously isn’t a crime in itself, but they are taking pitches they maybe shouldn’t instead of trying to foul them off, which could be a reason we are getting more K’s on 3 ball counts. I also think that Tulo is complaining about too many strike calls, as I mentioned in yesterdays game thread. There was one right down the middle and he was yakking afterwards. This means he isn’t focusing fully on his at bat, and also may subconsciously fuel the umpire not to side with him next time there’s a questionable call. I understand he’s passionate about wanting to do well, but I think he should channel it a different way, we don’t need any more hand lacerations!

Sad to say I think the biggest reason is a couple of games got away from us that we could have won (3rd game v Philly, 1st v Los Angeles) and that put us in a slow start, and the guys have slipped back into trying too hard to make things happen like last year. Anyway, I try to stay positive, and two series wins from the next two puts us back having an average April

by djmbluemoon on Apr 23, 2009 12:14 PM MDT up reply actions

I would also add, from the Helton article notes, that the Rockies placed Buchholz on the 60 day DL...

to make room for Matt Daley on the 40 man roster (placing a player on the 60 day DL removes them from the 40 man). This means that Taylor won’t be back to the team until at the earliest June—ruling out any dreams of an early May comeback.

It is interesting that the Rockies made this move and didn’t remove Register (who seems to have fallen out of favor) from their 40 man roster.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Apr 23, 2009 11:22 AM MDT reply actions

Another take on it is

That Bucky is hurt more than they’ve been saying. It has been quiet on the rehab front…

by rockieprogress on Apr 23, 2009 11:30 AM MDT up reply actions

From

What Ringolsby had to say from the onset of his injury, it seems like they were always shooting for June 1 and didn’t have a reason (40 man roster reason) to move him to the 60 day until now. I asked him about Taylor’s progress in the comments in his blog.
Here’s what he had to say:

He is throwing 120 feet distances off flat ground. From the time he was sidelined, I have felt June 1 would be a good target date. It’s a pitchers arm. There is no quick way back. There is total rest, which means a rebuilding of the arm strength and then building up pitching stamina and then pitching in some games. There have been no bumps in the road. It just takes time.

"Better move your rental cars, I am about to take BP."
-Glendon Rusch

by Hizilla on Apr 23, 2009 11:32 AM MDT up reply actions

Good news

Thanks.

by rockieprogress on Apr 23, 2009 11:34 AM MDT up reply actions

They really, really need to not rush him back

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.

by Andrew Martin on Apr 23, 2009 11:40 AM MDT up reply actions

Agreed.

With the nature of the injury, I’ve been skeptical of him coming back at all, although the signs are promising, I’m hopeful that he can come back and be effective.

"Better move your rental cars, I am about to take BP."
-Glendon Rusch

by Hizilla on Apr 23, 2009 11:45 AM MDT up reply actions

That

really is a day brightener. Thanks a ton for posting it.

The great thing about baseball is that there's a crisis every day. ~Gabe Paul

by rockhead on Apr 23, 2009 1:10 PM MDT up reply actions

Hi guys, noob question

If a roster pitcher is injured, and out of options, when he’s coming back from injury and needs game time to get his fitness back, can he play in the minors? Are there rules about where, and for how long?

by biondino on Apr 24, 2009 3:38 AM MDT up reply actions

They have a thing

called rehab assignment, which allows a player to play in the minors for a few games.

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Apr 24, 2009 6:48 AM MDT up reply actions

The one thing we have failed to talk about

the impact of no stick like Holliday in the lineup. The impact is this lineup has less of a “fear factor” than before. Additionally with no discernable speed to speak of, the lineup is seeing a much heavier load of off speed stuff.

by PinchHitLancePainter on Apr 23, 2009 2:52 PM MDT reply actions

I'll call Hurdle and have him make Atkins bat with rollerblades on.

Seriously though, I think that big centerpiece really is hurting us – in a sense.

Obviously, I’d love those .900+ OPS back. But once this offense picks up, it’s still solid, and you can’t just pitch around a Holliday to get to anyone (not that you really could anyhow), but everyone might get more pitches to hit this way.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.

by Andrew Martin on Apr 23, 2009 3:15 PM MDT up reply actions

I wonder if Hawpe is ready to take this role...

His current OPS is around 1.014 and he’s been very hot over the past week sporting a 1.258. Maybe it’s just been two weeks and he will drop off, but he looks confident at the plate. It’s important to remember that this is the first year he has started the season as the established starter in RF without a platoon situation, and I think that has helped his confidence. Plus he can see a longterm path for himself through the organization at 1B after Todd is gone.

Ef you baldo try Hair-Be Dere!!

by Charlie77 on Apr 24, 2009 11:43 AM MDT up reply actions

I thought they had cut the platoon out for the 08 season as well

please correct me if I’m wrong here.

I think he’s up to the task one way or another.

But if we’re gonna bench Smith against lefties, I don’t think I want him in the 2 hole.

FREE MATT MURTON

by Andrew Martin on Apr 24, 2009 12:09 PM MDT up reply actions

I think you are right

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 24, 2009 12:31 PM MDT up reply actions

I thin kyou're readng too much into small sample size

There’s no logical reason that the umps would have a bias against the Rockies. I doubt it’s even their incosistency so much as just the Rockies have had an inordinate number of strikes thrown to them in certain situations. I’m sure it will balance out over the course of the season.

by Brendan Scolari on Apr 24, 2009 3:18 AM MDT reply actions

And an unusual number of players that are very good to excellent at differentiating between balls and strikes

Lose all their ability to do so. It’s this part that leads me to believe there are at least some umpiring consistency issues, but really the conspiracy theory was just a silly suggestion.

by Rox Girl on Apr 24, 2009 5:27 AM MDT up reply actions

Iannetta has always been very patient

but I haven’t seen Tulo like this. Maybe the ST drills have made them inordinately patient. I think it will even out eventually too, but it sure is frustrating to have all these things stacked up against us

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 24, 2009 8:09 AM MDT up reply actions

I'm not sure about Tulo's patience...

He really dropped off since Chicago.

Follow me on Twitter! http://www.twitter.com/rockiesmagicnum - But be warned I only actually "tweet" every....well, not often.

by Andrew Martin on Apr 24, 2009 8:34 AM MDT up reply actions

I probably should have specified the players,

I wasn’t including Tulo in my mind when I made the “very good to excellent” strike zone judgment statement, but Iannetta and Helton have both excelled at that and Spilborghs would have been the very good one that I was thinking about.

by Rox Girl on Apr 24, 2009 8:41 AM MDT up reply actions

Sorry...that was a response as much to the whole article as your comment

My point not necessarily that Tulo has great strike zone judgement, but that he and Iannetta have seemed, purely from an observational basis, to be far too patient, either all season, or in stretches. I haven’t been able to catch all of the games, but it seems to me that many hitters suffer from this, with CDI and Tulo as prime examples. Has the ST drills made the team too patient?
Also, where did you get the data regarding pitch counts, etc? I would be most interested to see where we rank in third strikes taken.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 24, 2009 9:43 AM MDT up reply actions

With Tulo I'd agree. I'm not so sure about CDI, I think his issues this year are more swing mechanics related.

The data’s taken mostly from B-ref’s NL pitches batting page, since everything’s sortable you’ll note that Tulo ties for the sixth highest called strike percentage (with Stephen Drew and Conor Jackson) in the majors, which confirms your point with him. I think Helton’s a more curious case, though. He shouldn’t be as highly ranked as he is.

by Rox Girl on Apr 24, 2009 10:46 AM MDT up reply actions