so long as everyone stays healthy.

Whether or not we win the NL West, however, is up to the Dodgers.

to find out what I think.

I’m pretty optimistic. They’ve had a road heavy, tough opponent heavy schedule in April. Some key players have struggled that I am optimistic can turn it around. I think Cook, Tulo, Iannetta and Jimenez can improve on their April selves. I am hopeful that DLR has turned the corner, and that players like Smith, Spilly and Dex can continue to emerge. The Pen, I am not so optimistic about – but if Bucky can return healthy and Street and Corpas can turn things around to just respectable (not dominant levels) – I think this team can crawl out of the basement and contend in the NL West.

But that doesn’t mean we’re not going to have a fun summer watching this team try.

And if there’s anybody who thinks a team that’s four games below .500 20 games into the season should pack it in and play for next year… I’m sorry, but you’re a $*%&ing idiot.

to this team through April. Here is what I see:

1) This offense is absolutely explosive when given the right spark. Aside from the Dodgers, there isn’t a better offense in the NL West (and the Rockies can even give them a run for their money).

1a) And this offense has proven its explosiveness with a slumping Tulo, Iannetta, and Helton, and we know at least two of those three bats will come around sooner rather than later.

2) We have a pitching staff that has dominating stuff. A rotation of Cook, Jimenez, Marquis, JDLR, and Morales all performing at the top of their game can conquer any offense in the West, and nearly any offense in the NL. Even if one of those cylinders isn’t firing (aka Jimenez lately), the rest of the staff can pick up the slack.

3) The team’s focus on fundamentals in Spring Training has really showed; most of our guys are showing improved plate discipline and better field awareness.

4) Dexter Fowler is going to be the Center Fielder of the Future that we all expected him to be, and he may earn ROTY honors (or at least some solid consideration) along the way.

5) The team is beating the teams they are supposed to be beating, and not under-performing (too terribly much) to teams like Arizona and San Diego. Playing 4 of your first 6 series against all 3 of last year’s division champions is rough enough, but having to do it with 11 of the 14 games being on the road is just insane. The Rockies did a good job at overcoming this small hurdle, and even though they didn’t win a lot of the games, they did better than could be expected.

Unfortunately, we’ve played against tough teams and our bullpen imploded a lot earlier than we thought it might, so our record stands at a not-so-impressive 8-12. May brings hope, however: 10 of our 29 games will be against either San Diego or San Francisco, and we’ve also got series’ against the coming-back-down-to-Earth Marlins and Pirates. We’ll still have more road games than home games, but it’ll be much more balanced than the April splits.

May will more than likely be this team’s true litmus test: beatable teams with our offense and rotation fully warmed up. If the team plays .500 ball this month, 3rd place in the NL West is probably the best we can expect from them (22-37 is not a pretty figure). However, if the team starts making good on the promise that we’ve seen during April, the team’s first division championship is definitely not unthinkable.

I think the NL west has almost been decided. I just don’t think there is enough here, here to make any kinda real push.

I know this is going to come as a complete shock to many….but the Rockies have the 2nd to worst record in the National League. Only the Nationals are worse. We are chasing the team with the 2nd best record in the NL.

This team has too many issues to over come. If they were bad in one area, and great in another, I’d be more optimistic. Starting pitching has been inconsistent (I expect Cook to stabilize this and Morales to help the back end) Bullpen has been terrible, the Infield has holes at 3rd and 2nd, SS (though I pray that’s about to turn around, as Tulo’s left foot was back yesterday and he had 2 hits!), and catcher (though I fully expect Iannetta to improve, not so much with Torrealba)

Now one month does not a season make. But the hole has been dug. This team has too huge of issues to over come to win the west, and become a playoff team. I do think this team can and will improve. I think with some luck they can end the year at .500 or even a couple games above. But what does that get them or the fans?

Several good points so far.

What I think:

1. The Dodgers are very good right now, but still vulnerable and they have a highly suspect rotation.

2. I have no idea how San Diego won eleven games in April. Adrian Gonzalez is on his way to deserving MVP consideration and should at least be the NL’s April PotM.

3. I’m still unsure if the Rockies are better than San Francisco this season. This series will help me a lot to figure that out.

4. Arizona’s not as good as the Rockies, it sickens me to see them ahead in the standings.

5. The Rockies five losses to the Dodgers in April were the most telling games this month. The team did not take advantage of weak pitching when they faced it. Our starters on the other hand pitched as though they felt inferior to the task, as though intimidated by LA’s lineup and I didn’t like that and I haven’t seen any reason yet to suspect that we’ll overtake the Dodgers by the end of the year. I hope that changes by the next time we face LA. Improved performance might bring the confidence and swagger back.

On the other hand, I think the Wild Card may be more available than I thought heading into the season, unless everybody really thinks that the Pittsburgh Pirates have it wrapped up already. It would be nice to get a win streak going to be back in that race.

The rox just need to sacrifice a bucket of fried chicken before the game tonight to placate the baseball gods. When you GIDP with the bases loaded and one out numerous times in a tight game(s) you make the baseball gods very very angry…

Seriously, I’m cautiously optimistic (face it, cautious optimism is a way of life for a rox fan). If the starters/bullpen can pick it up a notch or two, the musical chair lineups stop and certain players stop trying to hit the ball to bloody Wyoming or Kansas every time they step to the plate they can turn it around (or at least get to .500). I don’t think any NL West team stands heads and shoulders above the rest right now…

This thread was going to open up some cans of worms, but so be it. I find myself in Franchise 26’s court right now. Not sure we’ll overtake the LA Mannies, but it should still be a “fun summer watching them try.” Also, RG’s take on LA’s rotation has more than a few supporters out there on the internetz. (Tim Brown at Yahoo Sports for one.)

WalkInRight is dead on for me. “Cautious Optimism”. Go Rockies!

I deliver this message every year, and nobody believes it. But it’s true. April matters. And here’s some data that reveals just how much it matters:

• In 2007, four of the eight playoff teams had losing records when April ended. And that was a development that gave hope to slow starters everywhere. But here’s the real story: That almost never happens. None of the eight playoff teams in 2008 were sub-.500 heading into May. And the Angels (9-12) and Diamondbacks (9-13) won’t want to hear that in the wild-card era (1995-2008), just 20 of the 112 playoff teams (18 percent) were under .500 — yes, even one game under — at the end of April.

• OK, let’s look back even further. The Rays (9-14) and Indians (8-14) won’t enjoy learning that only 10 of the 160 playoff teams since 1982 finished April more than three games under .500. And just one team since 1935 — the 1979 Pirates — was more than three games under after April and won the World Series.

• And, finally, the Mets (4½ games out) and Cubs (5 out) won’t be thrilled to know that of the 132 teams that finished in first place over the past 26 full seasons, 104 of them (or 79 percent) were no worse than 2½ games out of first by the end of April.

So you know that old expression that you can’t win a division in April but you can definitely lose one? It’s 100 percent true.

Here’s the full article.

Just looking at history, those aren’t very good stats for the Rockies.