Friday Pebble Report: Gonzalez, Nelson hit big, Friedrich dominant
by Rox Girl on May 1, 2009 10:29 AM MDT
in Pebble Report
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PrintColorado Springs (14-6, 1st): W 14-4
The Sky Sox now have the best record in the PCL thanks to yesterday's romp over Sacramento and a loss by the Salt Lake Bees. Sacramento's only the second team with a winning record the Sky Sox have played this season, so it's good to see the team get off to a strong start.
Carlos Gonzalez had a huge game with five hits, including a double and two triples (he has a league leading five on the season), he also stole a base, scored three times and drove in five more of the Sky Sox runs. Jonathan Herrera and Eric Young Jr. each had three hits, and five other Sky Sox got aboard safely at least twice. Young added two more steals to tally 14 on the season so far.
Alan Johnson was again highly effective in five innings, his 63% GB rate on the season is second in the PCL among starters to the guy he was pitching against, A's prospect Vincent Mazzaro. Johnson obviously got the better of this matchup, he didn't allow a fly ball until a double two outs into the fourth inning. After a shaky fifth, wherein he allowed another double, a run to score on a wild pitch and a homerun, he gave way to the bullpen. Johnson's been very lucky with BABIP this season, but the GB rate in particular is highly encouraging.
Kurt Birkins pitches against Sean Gallagher, who's back to starting after a rough stint in Oakland's bullpen at the beginning of the season.
Tulsa (9-11, 3GB): W 9-8
The Drillers walked away with a victory after being down 8-0 in the bottom of the seventh by scoring all nine of their runs in the final three innings. The walk off hero was Johnny Bowden (Fight on, Johnny!!) who won the game with a three run bomb. This is what he had to say according to the Tulsa World recap:
"I just stayed on the pitch, it was a little up in the zone and all I was trying to do was shoot the right-center gap and keep the inning alive," Bowden said. "I got under it enough to get it out.
"As soon as I hit it I knew it was gone, but I wasn't expecting a home run. I was expecting more like a single or a double."
Chris Nelson hit a three run homer in the eighth to pull the Drillers within five and finished with three hits on the night, including a double that led to the Drillers first run in the bottom of the seventh. Ryan Harvey's two run shot earlier in the ninth inning kept Tulsa alive before Bowden's walk-off shot.
Starter Chaz Roe finished with an ugly line after starting off well. Roe pitched four shutout innings but fell apart in a seven run fifth. Shane Lindsay pitched a scoreless ninth for the win.
Jhoulys Chacin pitches for the Drillers tonight as he attempts to rebound from a disaster start in his last outing and a 1-3 start to the season.
Modesto (14-6, 0.5 GB): W 6-5
The Nuts were able to hang on for a close victory after stopping Bakersfield's rally just short. Brian Rike hit a two run home run and Wilin Rosario added a solo shot in the victory. Brandon Durden needs to be up a level or two to be considered a strong candidate to make the MLB, but for what it's worth he's tied for the league lead in starter's ERA at the moment (now that Jarrod Parker has been promoted to AA) although he drops to ninth in FIP. Durden pitched six innings, allowing just two runs on five hits and no walks.
Rike collected a pair of walks to just one strikeout, which is a positive sign for him, and Hector Gomez bounced back from a zero for five performance in his 2009 debut with a two for five day including a double. Unfortunately, he also had a fielding error for the second straight day. Charlie Blackmon doubled and scored a run but also struck out three times.
Modesto starts a series with a prospect laden San Jose team tonight. Reigning California League pitcher of the week Kenneth Durst takes the mound for the Nuts against Craig Clark in a matchup of similar control lefties.
Asheville (10-11, 3 GB): W 6-5
Jordan Pacheco broke out of a mini 2 for 12 slump with a pair of hits and two RBI, he remains just behind teammate James Cesario in third place in wOBA in the SAL. Defensively, things didn't go so well, as Pacheco also collected three passed balls, a throwing error and allowed two additional wild pitches. Cesario and Kiel Roling were the Tourists who were the most impressive at the plate against top Yankees pitching prospect Andrew Brackman. Roling squared up on Brackman three times, including twice for hits, and Cesario hit a solid double off the big right hander. Most of the other damage off him was done by Asheville taking advantage of Brackman's defensive inability via the bunt hit and grounders that found some holes.
Christian Friedrich ran into trouble with his own wildness and Pacheco's troubles blocking the plate in a two run second, but finished with ten strikeouts in six innings, giving up just five hits and two walks and a 6-1 groundout to flyout ratio. Friedrich now has a 67% GB rate to go along with a 40.2% K rate, which is a huge sign of dominance when the sum of those numbers goes over 100. Like Poseidon was saying yesterday, don't expect him to stay in Asheville very much longer.
Tonight, the slaughter of the McCormick Field worms continues as Dan Houston (68% GB's thus far) goes up against D.J. Mitchell (60%), another two-seamer specialist who somehow slipped to the tenth round in last season's draft.
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Carlos Gonzalez by midseason?
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
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Who moves out?
I think that’s one that will depend on certain circumstances such as how close the team is to the Dodgers or the Wild Card and what the trade market is looking like. So far, the Rockies outfield has been the most valuable part of the team, so breaking that up to call up Gonzalez is a tough sell right now. The good news in this is that as long as these players continue to hit well, their trade value should stay pretty high.
Hawpe probably has the highest value, right?
In an ideal world he plays first, but that’s not happening for a while. If we are not really in it come the deadline I think it makes sense to listen to offers. And if CarGo is mashing then the Monforts can defend against salary dump criticism by pointing to the “success” of the Holliday trade.
I don't think casual fans will buy that
“See? We traded our star for another outfielder, and to make room for him, we had to trade our remaining best hitter….heckuva a two-for-one”
Not that the thinking is correct there…the casual fan doesn’t realize how damaging Hawpe’s D is in right…it was so bad, the overall Hawpe package was worth less than a replacement player last year.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on May 1, 2009 11:22 AM MDT up reply actions
Hawpe
Hawpe seems like a guy that could fetch a good haul at the deadline – the value of things like ‘proven veteran starter’ and ‘strikeout middle reliever’ and ‘power lefty bat’ always seems to inflate around July 31, and Hawpe happens to be one of those three things.
Of course you aren’t going to want to deal him at the deadline if you’re only 4 or 5 games out of first… so I don’t know what happens here.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
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I agree
Trading Hawpe might be the best move for the Rockies involving an OF when considering the higher return and improved defense in RF. But there’s no way that happens if we are in contention.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on May 1, 2009 11:33 AM MDT up reply actions
Well, it depends on the return
Lets say that Halladay is put on the market come July and Toronto agrees to move him for Hawpe and a few prospects. As long as Cargo is still raking in the springs, than I can see the team moving on it. But it wouldn’t be for a salary dump/prospect gathering.
What do you think the return would be
For a Smith/Atkins/Ortmeier type of package? And throw in Baker to cover airfare.
Leaves an outfield of Spilly, Hawpe, Dex, Murton, with CarGo as a late season call up and in the back pocket assuming Spilly signs elsewhere with Boras.
Hawpe takes 1st on Helton’s rest days and plan on him for the future, Stewart plays every day (hooray), Murton stays with the big club (hooray), um, and we win the division (hooray).
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by frightened inmate #2 on May 1, 2009 11:35 AM MDT up reply actions
Smith is the one really valuable piece of those three
Ortmeier’s fungible, doesn’t really add anything to the package and therefore wouldn’t add anything in return, so I’m going to take him out. Atkins value is pretty low right now because all the numbers are showing that he’s in a steep decline. A team in need of a third baseman would want to get him as cheaply as possible and hope for a rebound, so I’d guess that the best the Rockies could hope for would be a guy some organization has given up on, or perhaps a scaled PTBNL scenario where the quality of a prospect that’s returned to the Rockies will depend on Atkins’ production with the club he’s traded to.
Smith is cheap, productive and entering his prime. He provides both offense and defense in left field whereas most players who get put there provide only one or the other. I don’t know why the Rockies would want to trade that, so much so that I can’t even find a comparable trade in the last few seasons from any team. There is one that’s kind of close. Smith’s not nearly as talented as Josh Hamilton, so the Rockies won’t get anything like Edinson Volquez back, but a hard throwing young pitcher could be conceivable if the team finds the right match. So I’d be looking at a team like Atlanta with young starting pitching to spare and a need for a left fielder. With Tommy Hanson breaking down the door, the Braves might be amenable to trading Jo Jo Reyes or Charlie Morton for Smith.
They wouldn’t want Atkins, though, so that would be a separate deal. I guess that’s your answer, though, I’d expect Smith/Atkins/Ortmeier/Baker to return a pitcher like Jo Jo Reyes and a single PTBNL.
The problem with these kinds of trades...
is that teams receiving up to 4 such players would have to clear out 2-3 spots on the 40 man roster to do it, risking losing extra prospects to other teams on the waiver wire.
For this reason, a one to one trade works best, but it is unlikely at this juncture.
Eschew Obfuscation!
Yep...
I definitely agree, that’s why I pointed out that the one easy fit for Smith isn’t a good fit for any of the other players involved. I also doubt I would attempt any of these trades were I GM right now. I just tried to answer the question.
Right now teams are still too bunched together so nobody knows who’s really buyers or sellers anyway. The only team that’s out of contention is Washington, everybody else still harbors at least some degree of hope that the rest of the season can turn their way. Without knowing if you’re looking to trade for this season or next, it makes it difficult to identify who’s going to be moved.
There is a decent chance that there will be an injury
If not, than I imagine that Spilly could be the odd man out. He is due to start making bank and is the eldest of the outfielders other than Hawpe ( he may be older, not sure). I could see them using Spilly in a package to get a top end pitcher midseason. Lets just hope for the Jays to fall apart and shop Halladay.
If Dex and Smith continue at their pace
Spilborghs might not get enough starts to be showcased. I’m afraid it will be impossible to get fair value, and if he were to be in a trade for a top end pitcher, someone else would have to be the centerpiece of such a deal.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on May 1, 2009 11:25 AM MDT up reply actions
They still seem to be starting Spilly more often.
So, it’s hard to tell. But out outfield is starting to really get in a grove. Dex is the only one hitting below .300, despite being the most valuable.
And he's got Boras as an agent...
don’t underestimate that.
But yeah, if we can trade Hawpe for a nice return at the deadline, we should, unless we’re winning the division or seriously contending. Maybe even then, if only to improve the OF defense and get an arm in return.
Eschew Obfuscation!
It would also improve team speed
Not that it’s incredibly important at this moment, but still nice to have.
It certainly would
I was really impressed after seeing CarGon the other day. He is extremely athletic, and bigger than I thought. He really looks like he can move, and from what I have heard when listening to Sky Sox games on the radio, he has made some real good catches in CF and looked great defensively.
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
Hawpe is older by a couple months
But yeah, he and Spilly are essentially the same age. But Spilly’s just arb-eligible after this season, not a free agent. Unless he has a MONSTER year, I don’t see him getting a huge payday… maybe something like what Buchholz got this year.
I'd actually look more at Clint Barmes as a comparison for Spilborghs' first arbitration year...
considering he would have a full-ish (with some platooning) season in Coors to show some value and he would be about Barmes’ age next year—1.6, 1.7 million next year is my prediction.
Eschew Obfuscation!
Who comes up to replace Friedrich?
He has been awful tough so far and should be headed out soon, it would seem.
Who is still in Tucson and would be a likely replacement in Asheville?
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