Top 30 PuRPs: Spring Edition
by Rox Girl on May 12, 2009 2:12 PM MDT
in Pebble Report
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PrintThe top three remain the same, but Brandon Hynick and Hector Gomez swap positions skipping over several players on the way up or down. Esmil Rogers leapt twelve spots to land in the top twelve. The Purple Row community really likes their AAAA type players at the bottom of the list, as players like Jeff Kindel and Matt Miller hang on tenaciously despite the system having better prospects available to choose from. Sigh. Maybe next time.
Notable omissions include Jordan Pacheco and Kiel Roling, as well as some young International talent. The list will have quite a few more prospects to choose from a little over month from now after the MLB draft is completed.
- Dexter Fowler 419
- Jhoulys Chacin 403
- Christian Friedrich 382
- Hector Gomez 361
- Michael McKenry 335
- Wilin Rosario 326
- Eric Young Jr. 320
- Christopher Nelson 301
- Charles Blackmon 287
- Casey Weathers 284
- Brandon Hynick 239
- Esmil Rogers 231
- Keith Weiser 205
- Connor Graham 202
- Matt Daley 194
- Shane Lindsay 179
- Chaz Roe 162
- Delta Cleary 162
- Bruce Billings 139
- Darin Holcomb 132
- Samuel Deduno 114
- Alan Johnson 111
- Cory Riordan 91
- Cole Garner 75
- Aaron Weatherford 73
- Christian Colonel 71
- Parker Frazier 63
- Scott Robinson 61
- Matt Miller 59
- Jeff Kindel 46
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I'd just like to point out how awesome Weiser is looking in AA
Not a great ERA, but he has a 30:3 K:BB ratio. He’s a little too home run friendly, but he’s looking like Jason Hammel with better control and stuff.
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
Better control? Certainly
Better stuff? No. Weiser’s stuff is very hittable, that’s why he’s given up 19 AA base knocks in his last two starts (10 2/3 innings), including eight for extra bases. If AA hitters are getting nearly one extra base hit/inning off of him, I hate to think what MLB hitters would do.
I guess I figure he's missing enough bats to make that claim
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
by Andrew Martin on May 12, 2009 3:23 PM MDT up reply actions
He thrives on hitting his location
The upside is Jamey Moyer or Tom Glavine, the downside is all the other prospects that flamed out after being compared to Jamey Moyer or Tom Glavine. The latter category is easily more populated than the former. I’m not saying Weiser’s a bad ‘spect, but he’s the third, maybe fourth best in that Tulsa rotation and is probably too close to Texas League FIP leading Rogers in our voting.
That you would bring up Weiser as the AA pitcher to be excited about rather than Esmil is somewhat indicative of this.
I suppose I'm not sure how to take that
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
by Andrew Martin on May 12, 2009 11:47 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't mean it to be a personal dig,
It’s just I’ve noted that people here tend to be more excited about Weiser than they probably should be, and not excited enough about Rogers. The guy that’s pitching in the low 90’s with nasty movement and a plus curve that now has finally found some top notch command and solid control to go with it should have us salivating more than the finesse LHP who’s seeing a spike in his K rate. Both pitchers have taken a step forward this year and that’s good, I hope they both keep it up, but the difference is in their ceiling, the one could be a legitimate mid-rotation quality pitcher while the other looks to be another bottom of the rotation type to compete with Greg Smith (Weiser’s just ten months younger).
Please forgive me for my ignorance but
when do Dex and Matt Daley come off the list. Is it time on the ML roster or ABs, innings pitched or some other qualifer?
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton
Thanks.
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton
To answer your specific questions about Dex and Daley
Dex gets off this week, Daley has another month.
So...maybe the whole list should be pushed up?
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
by Andrew Martin on May 12, 2009 3:23 PM MDT up reply actions
I assume the scale is 30 for a 1st place, 1 for a 30th?
Also, what is your ballot RG?
Eschew Obfuscation!
This might be ignorant,
but why isn’t Carlos Gonzalez somewhere on this list?
Draft
given the plethora of earlyish selections in the draft this year, do the Rockies have the budget to focus on talent and not signability? because it would be a great opportunity to infuse some new blood into the system.
The Rockies aren't likely to go after players that are going to be signed over slot
At least not with those first three picks, especially not in this economy. The question will be whether they find the more talented players that are still available for that kind of money (like they did with Friedrich) or whether they pass up on the correct players who would still be available at the slot price (like they did in selecting Reynolds).
I don’t care about the signing bonus, Lincecum, Bumgarner, Longoria, etc.., all signed for pretty close to their slotted bonus figures, I just care about the talent.
I'm saying that the Rockies should adopt the Yankees strategy in the draft
just that it would be nice to not have a repeat of [repetitive, whiny reference to 2006 draft] this year.
Would like to add my two-cents on this
This is the one subject that infuriates me the most about the club. With Tulo in 2005 and Friedrich last year, I believe the Rocks took the best available players at those slots – both from a signability and talent standpoint. In 2006 and 2007, they pissed away opportunities to make great long-term improvements for the club. In 2006, the talk by both the experts and this blog were Longoria, Longoria, Longoria. Then all of a sudden the day before the draft Reynolds’ name creeps into conversations.
To me this was clearly a pick that was made way over slot so the team could pay as little as possible. Now can Reynolds become a decent MLB pitcher – sure. Will he – don’t know. I do know that when you have the 2nd pick in the draft – and are a "small" market team like the Rocks – you have to make the most of your high picks. The Rays have done a great job of making the most of their top end picks.
Same issue in 2007. Weathers could end up being a quality reliever/closer for the team. However, at the 8th pick, you just can’t be taking relievers. From a signability standpoint, Porcello was out, but I don’t remember any arguments against Parker being a tough sign.
Again – This year’s high picks had to be made to count. Otherwise we end up more like the Pirates and less like the Rays. Sad thing is, I fully expect the team to over draft again this year with the # 11 pick.
TGFPR!!
Not sure I agree on Reynolds
The pick was not a good one, but I don’t think money was the deciding factor. I think that was a case of the Rox looking for the “safe” choice. Longoria signed at slot and I’m sure would’ve taken the same contract Reynolds received. With Tulo, Atkins, and Stewart in place though, I really think the front office elected to go for need with the starting pitcher they thought could hit the big leagues the quickest, regardless of what his upside was. In a lot of ways, that line of thinking is even more damaging than drafting based on money.
Don't look at me...
I left Miller and Kindel off ;-)
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on May 12, 2009 3:56 PM MDT reply actions
Parker Frazier
It seems like I have heard a lot about this kid – all positive things. I was wondering why he wasn’t higher on this list.
Too much contact, not enough K's
It’s hard to know how good his sinker will be against better competition, and the lack of an out pitch to use when he’s deep in trouble with traffic make it hard to place him very high right now. That said, I don’t know exactly why the community doesn’t like him as much as it does somebody like Hynick, who also doesn’t have a working out pitch at the moment and has less time to develop one.
Re: Hynick over Frazier
A lot depends on how you evaluate the talent. If you’re in scout mode, you might see higher prospect-worthy material. If you’re in stathead mode, you see that he was outright terrible in Casper in 07 and has struggled in Asheville this year, and Hynick dominated at both stops. Hynick also has done better with the K’s than Frazier, albeit not by much.
The age difference is duly noted, but given that Hynick could jump the MLB this year under the right circumstances and Frazier still hasn’t shown success above A-ball, I had to rank Hynick much higher. I’m all for ranking lower prospects higher than a AAAA player if they project to be better, but I’m not convinced yet
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on May 12, 2009 4:34 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't know, if I'm a stathead, I see that
Frazier’s FIP as a 20 year old at Asheville this season is about equal to what it was last season in Tri-City, and it’s about equal to what Hynick had in Modesto as a 22 year old in 2007. Casper’s the only place that Hynick had a distinct statistical edge,, but if Frazier was to be sent back there this season with two years professional experience, he’d probably be just about as dominant and still younger than Hynick was when he passed through.
Those are all good arguments
I hadn’t checked into the FIPs, mostly because I’m not sure where to find them honestly. His WHIP is 80% higher though than Hynick’s in the two seasons you are comparing, so I didn’t figure fielding could come close to bridge that gap. It seems a lot of your argument also hinges on age, which is fine. It’s just up to Frazier to actually take advantage of that, which I suppose I weight less heavily as an advantage in this case. Btw, are you going to publish your list? ;-)
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on May 12, 2009 5:16 PM MDT up reply actions
Thanks for the comments Rox Girl and Poseidon's Fist
Very insightful. I appreciate it. One more quick question – how do you guys evaluate these players? What could I do if I wanted to watch a few of these guys but can’t travel out to the locations our minor league teams are at.
by Business Socks on May 12, 2009 5:21 PM MDT up reply actions
Check out ProspectTube.
Here’s a link. It has a few Rockies prospects on video.
I’m a bit intense in my own evaluation
Watching them in person is a big help, if possible, I can usually only see players at Asheville lately, though, then video, then audio (the affiliate radio stations are linked down the left sidebar on the main page) as sometimes I can pick up things from the announcers who are seeing the games, then game logs, then box scores.
I then mix in a generous helping of Sabermetrics with the cumulative stats and sites like Baseball Prospectus, First Inning, minorleaguesplits or Project Prospect, read scouting reports from sites that talk to scouts like Baseball America or MinorLeagueNews.com. Talk to people I know who know these prospects better than I do either in the organization or media, and then I make my own judgment calls from there.
I would not recommend this method to anybody else who wants a life, however.
Thank you
I really appreciate it. This is really good stuff.
by Business Socks on May 12, 2009 5:57 PM MDT up reply actions
Yes, I will,
I decided to go youth/upside heavy since the rest of the community seemed to have all of the older players well taken care of.
1. Fowler
2. Rosario
3. Chacin
4. Friedrich
5. Gomez
6. Nelson
7. McKenry
8. EY2
9. Blackmon
10. Rogers
11. Weathers
12. Graham
13. Cleary
14. Robinson
15. Lindsay
16. Roling
17. Massey
18. Garner
19. Billings
20. Daley
21. Deduno
22. Weatherford
23. Johnson
24. Pacheco
25. Mayora
26. Holcomb
27. Kandilas
28. Yan
29. Frazier
30. Hollingsworth
The FIP’s, btw, can be found at FirstInning.com or minorleaguesplits.com
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