Wednesday Rockpile: Swing for the Fences, Ian!
by Jeff Aberle on May 13, 2009 8:39 AM MDT
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PrintSorry this Rockpile is late, Rowbots, as I had a 7 am final today. Only one more (tomorrow at 7 am) until summer can start!
The big story in last night's 12-1 beatdown of the Astros was the two-homer night of Ian Stewart, as well as the continuation of Brad Hawpe's blistering start. Of course, Felipe Paulino is hardly a major-league quality pitcher, but the offensive outburst by the Rockies was certainly encouraging to see, as was the stellar pitching of Ubaldo Jimenez. As Jack Etkin notes, the Rockies pitchers' 2.65 May ERA leads the NL--making Colorado's 5-6 May record even more troubling. The Rockies have an opportunity to equal their season-long winning streak (three games) tonight and to take their record for the month to .500.
Etkin also writes that despite Stewart's success last night, he is still hitting only .211 and has 24 strikeouts in only 71 ABs (14 of them, including his last 8, looking). What's that old adage? You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. Clint Hurdle puts it well within the article:
"The way he played through spring training, the first two weeks of the season, it’s almost like somebody pulled the plug on him," manager Clint Hurdle said. "That’s what him and I talked about. I said, ‘You got to bring something, whether it’s on the bases, defensively but swing the bat. Two strikes--open the field up. Swing the bat.’ "
If Stewart takes the advice of baseball sage Dave Garcia, he'll be just fine.
I’m not the hitting coach here, but I want to tell you guys something.’ " Garcia said. " ‘Don’t let a fastball strike hit the catcher’s glove.’
In other Rockies' news, Garrett Atkins is still struggling, and he thinks it's his swing. I think it is his swiftly declining bat speed that is problematic. Either way, Atkins is a dead weight offensively and defensively right now for the Rockies.
Meanwhile, Tulo's quad feels much better, which is great news for the Rockies, especially given his recent hot streak.
Troy Renck writes about the inconsistency of run support that Rockies pitchers have received this year--in wins they have received 8.1 runs and in losses just 2.9.
Finally, Etkin chimes in with a medical update on several Rockies. Greg Smith will make his first rehab start Thursday in Modesto where he will be joined by Ryan Speier. Franklin Morales and Taylor Buchholz also look to be on schedule to return fairly soon. News isn't so good for Greg Reynolds, who hasn't thrown in over a month and still hasn't been formally diagnosed.
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My words are yummy...
I have been pretty vocal in the Row about my Ian Stewart doubts. Last night he took a big step to addressing my personal concerns. He still has a ways to go (2 bombs are great, but 2 K looking, not so much) but if this a step forward that leads him to be the offensive player that he is hyped up to be, then I will eat my words with a cold beer and a smile.
What if the hokey pokey is what it is all about after all????
I think pretty soon
Atkins will be coming down with the same thing that put Conner Jackson on the DL for AZ.
A win tonight by the Rockies will propel them past Houston in the Wild Card race. And add in a Braves lose to the Mets tonight, and the Rockies could be tied with the Braves and 3-4 games out of the WC. And it’s not the games out that is the issue it’s crawling past other dead bodies/teams. Maybe this team has some life in it, as Stewart and Tulo return from the land of the dead as brain eating baseball hitting zombies
A home stand, lesser opponents, does wonders don’t it?
I'll be done with finals in a few hours
And what a productive semester it was. 12 page paper on banana bread and a 16 page paper on brewing beer.
Anyway, I will kick Hurdles rear if he sits Stewie tonight. Giving Ian a defined role, I think, is what he needs. A routine will help him out greatly. Atkins, on the other hand, not so much. Send him to the minors so he can work on whatever the problem is without hurting the club. Bring EYJ up and see if he continues to hit the way he has for the past 8 months.
Does Atkins have options left?
"What's money? A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do." -Bob Dylan
by Bryan Kilpatrick on May 13, 2009 9:31 AM MDT up reply actions
No
and he has too much major league service time. To be sent down he would have to agree to it. He could refuse and be released/waived.
This is the way I see it, via PR Academy:
a player with five years of experience can not be optioned to the minors, even if he had options remaining, and may obtain his release.
Atkins has 4.072 years of service time, so he’s still technically eligible to be optioned down. If I’m not mistaken, he’s got one option left—and only one, due to service time constraints. I could be wrong there as I have conflicting sources on that, but I think he’s in the same boat as Hawpe.
So the answer is yes the Rockies can send Atkins down…probably.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on May 13, 2009 10:02 AM MDT up reply actions
My "No"
was a probably no, as I was looking at the total service time in calender years being over 5 years. I could be wrong.
Now Atkins could be traded. The St. Louis Cardinals lost Ludwick last night to injury and are desperately looking to add an OF’er and preferably a middle of the order type bat.
Well….Atkins has been batted in the middle of order (uhem…I’m trying to sell here), and he can stand in the OF! There trade him!
That would be interesting
I was just assuming he would accept the demotion to fix whatever is screwed up. He has to realize that he won’t have a job in a few years if he keeps doing this, so I figured he would accept to fix the problem soon.
But if we can do it without his consent, than I’m all for it.
Yes
which is why it’s done with guys that are struggling. Usually they go to extended spring training if it’s still going on (these are the kids that will go to Rookie leagues), than can be assigned to the minor leagues on a rehabilitation assignment. The minimum stay on a DL is 15 days.
According to the Rules, players on a Disabled List “may be assigned to a Minor League Club for the purpose of injury rehabilitation for a maximum of 20 days in the case of non-pitchers and 30 days in the case of pitchers.”
Now…if a player isn’t really hurt, this is a violation of the collective bargaining agreement between the owners and players. But faking injury works for the player at times. He’s been sucking is about to be sent down or released, and then claims injury…to remain on the major league payroll and get extra money (this is for the lower paid guys that don’t have long term contracts). Or a veteran whose numbers have gone down, can claim it’s due to injury to keep some value up for his next free agent contract.
So Baker is on the DL
because otherwise he was going to be released?
Well....
we’ll never no for sure. It could be a legit injury. Or it could be stashing a guy off the 25 man active roster.
And what do the Freemasons and/or DeVinci know about it?
Not that I mind the sentiment
but does anyone really think there is even a slight chance that GA is going to accept being sent down? A 4+ year starter? It ain’t gonna happen.
They could try to make Garrett go to rehab
But he’d probably say something like “No, no, no.”
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
I LOL'd,
even though I hate the song.
Jim Zorn, 55. Sean Miller, 40. AJ Hinch, 34. Notice a pattern here?
FWIW, Renck recently reported Baker had a "setback" in his rehab
so either they are very dedicated to a fabricated injury, or he really is having problems.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on May 13, 2009 6:04 PM MDT up reply actions
I can diagnose Reynolds:
He has a puzzling case of the sucks.
"What's money? A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do." -Bob Dylan
by Bryan Kilpatrick on May 13, 2009 9:30 AM MDT reply actions
Strike out looking
A strike out looking is just another way to make an out. Ignore it. Ian is probably looking for something, and instead got something different, and felt he could not handle it. His options are to swing, probably miss or hit a week ground ball, or take it, and hope it is called a ball. So long as when he hits it he is succeedfull, leave him alone. The worst thing a hitting coach for Ryan Howard could do is fix his strike out problem. Looking or not, ignore it.
The opposite of Ian Stewart is Clint Barmes.
Exactly
although the strikeouts are alarming and a bit annoying, I woud rather have a guy take a borderline pitch that might be a ball then strike out swinging at a slider in the dirt that was never a strike from the moment it left the pitcher’s hand.
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
...and I'd rather have a guy that swung at borderline fastballs.
Not swinging at sliders off the zone and not swinging at borderline fastballs are two different animals.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on May 13, 2009 10:36 AM MDT up reply actions
A borderline pitch may go for a ball and lead to a walk
where as swinging at a slider in the dirt has no chance of being put into play, unless your Vlad, so I guess we’ll agree to disagree. In an ideal world Stewie would stay alive and foul those pitches off or at least swing at them, but if I had the choice I think his is the lesser of 2 evils.
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
Sure, in a hitter's count take the borderline fastball...
but not in a two-strike count. Don’t leave it up to an umpire’s interpretation, because they just love to punch hitters out.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on May 13, 2009 10:59 AM MDT up reply actions
I thought the "traditional school of thought" here was
protect on 2 strikes
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
by Andrew Martin on May 13, 2009 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions
I don't know if I am not making point or if we just disagree on this issue
but I am not saying Stewie doesn’t need to protect w/ 2 strikes because he does and him having the bat on his shoulder so much is a bad thing. I am just comparing to swinging and missing at 3rd strikes in the dirt that are not even close and have no chance of being hit. I would rather have the selective hitter, at least there is a chance it is called a ball as opposed to a swing and miss automatic strikeout.
We need Stew to swing and I hope he does that more, and not protecting is bad, I just like his approach better than watching Barmie swing at everything that even looks like it might be a pitch. Either way, he needs to stop striking out and give us some offense.
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
I don't mind the K's much either
Especially with ol’ whatshis last night and his pitches all over the map
But he was taking fastball strike 3s well within the strike zone last night
I know the difference between Barmes and Stewart and their striking out.
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
by Andrew Martin on May 13, 2009 11:30 AM MDT up reply actions
Strike out
What matters for a hitter is that they get on base often (OBP) and that they hit the ball hard (SLG). That is what the hitter needs to focus on. How they make their outs is irrelevant.
That fastball is coming in fast. If any of you have seen a 95 MPH fastball, (I have seen plenty), it is very hard to adjust to if you are looking for something else. So Ian takes a fastball right down the middle, and geniuses all over say he should have swung. It is not that easy though.
If you want Stewart to swing at that, you need to tell him not to be looking for the curve in that situation. He needs to change his approach. Now you have a slap hitter. (This is all conjucture on my part, but I would guess this is his approach.) If he gets his curveball, he will hit it hard. Again, he needs to optimize OBP and SLG.
If you see him strike out looking, don’t think, “If he could just swing at those pitches and get a hit .15% of the time he would be so much better.” For him to give in to hit the other pitch 15% of the time, he makes less of a commitment to the pitch he is looking for.
Only the best hitters do this. Ryan Howard is a great example.
We are spoiled by Todd Helton who has the amazing ability to foul off the bad pitches. This is truly an amazing ability. Ian my progress to this. Still Ian is doing well with his approach.
Play him everyday.
How hitters make their outs are certainly not irrelevant:
many outs are in fact quite productive (sac fly, sac bunt, RBI groundout, moving runner from second to third, etc.) while strikeouts are rarely if ever productive. So yes, I’d rather Stewart put the ball in play thankyouverymuch.
I’m not saying it’s easy to minimize strikeouts, and I understand your points to this effect, but it appears we have a fundamental disagreement on the “value” of a strikeout.
Eschew Obfuscation!
Value of an out
A strikeout has no value, whereas a other outs can move runners along. On the value of an at bat both are far behind the walk or single, and very far behind the value of a home run.
Ian sees the fastball coming. If it is right down the middle of the plate, he knows it. If he is fooled, there is still nothing he can do about it.
You could tell him to not guess with two strikes, and he would reduce his strike outs. But he would also reduce his OPS+.
If you told Ryan Howard to change his approach to make contact more often, he could do it. He would probably be very good at being a slap hitter that used all fields. He would sacrifice OPS+ though.
Ian did have a good game otherwise.
shouldnt you be looking fastball and react off that?
when there are 2 strikes? I understand waiting on a pitch earlier in the count but when there are two strikes you cant be up there thinking curveball and not look for any other pitch
thats just what im guessing
i havent played baseball since little league so ive never had to guess its going to be anything other than fastball
psst I'm the stats guy
you don’t gotta tell me about OBP and SLG
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
by Andrew Martin on May 13, 2009 2:41 PM MDT up reply actions
Me too
I have most of the original Baseball Abstracts. I have read a lot of books about baseball stats.
I could also play at a very high level.
could?
as in “back in the day, I was a AAA player”
or
“If I really wanted to now, I could walk on to some A+ team”
or
“Maybe I’m Seth Smith, maybe I’m Joe Nobody, but I know what I’m talking about”
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
by Andrew Martin on May 13, 2009 3:46 PM MDT up reply actions
How they make outs isn't entirely irrelevant
A strikeout is a no win play. At least if you put it in play, there is a chance you’ll get a dying quail or grounder with eyes. I understand your example with Howard, but it doesn’t hold water by looking at called third strikes. At least swing at something close and he could have eeked out a couple singles
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on May 13, 2009 6:07 PM MDT up reply actions
Bat Speed
Is there a tool out there (similar to Pitch FX) that would track bat speed or something similar. I know everyone has been saying “Atkins bat speed has slowed dramatically” but do we really know this for a fact?
"Better move your rental cars, I am about to take BP."
-Glendon Rusch
is he hitting to the opposite field? is his swing late on pitches?
Since he bats right, and most of the time, hes grounding out to 3rd/SS, I would say that hes swinging early – maybe over compensating for a slowing bat speed?
if you're reading this, it means my undying support for your team will result in its failure.
by fantasyfencing on May 13, 2009 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions
Actually
grounding out to the left side of the infield for a right handed hitter is a (more accurately “could be”) a sign the bat is late to the ball. Fly balls and you are thinking correctly.
But to Hizilla, Not that I know of. Bat Speed is one of those “eye ball test” things.
My fantasy team
appreciates it. Thanks, Stewart.
Jim Zorn, 55. Sean Miller, 40. AJ Hinch, 34. Notice a pattern here?
Non-Rockies note
MLB.com is broadcasting free, live look-ins on Ryan Zimmerman’s at bats today. So far he’s hitless in one at bat.
He's going to have one more chance, thank God.
I’m really rooting for him. He seems like a good guy.
Former Little League teammate
with Mark Reynolds, David Wright, and Justin and BJ Upton. :-D
Jim Zorn, 55. Sean Miller, 40. AJ Hinch, 34. Notice a pattern here?
Out, again.
I hate the giants more than the Dodgers today, which doesn’t happen often.
Now, we must hope that they go into extra innings.
Yeah
It seems unlikely at this point. Sadness.
I did like that many of the Giants fans gave him a nice ovation after that last out. That was classy.
yes, it was nice.
Did you notice that the Giants fans were actually booing when they intentionally walked him?
I heard that too.
But I don’t know how much of that was wanting him to get a chance for a hit and how much was disagreement over the IBB strategy.
True.
I know many aren’t, but generally I’m a fan of the IBB. I would’ve booed in that case, though.
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