Thursday Rockpile: Atkins on a clock.

by Rox Girl on May 14, 2009 8:40 AM MDT in Rockpile

"He is one of the better corner bats in the major leagues," O'Dowd said. "He is still young and hasn't reached his ceiling. We see him getting better."

From a November 2007 Tracy Ringolsby article

Garrett Atkins is running out of time to show a turn around. He's 37 at bats short of the 150 mark, a "key threshold" according to Clint Hurdle in the linked Troy Renck article, but there's not much indication given about what happens when that threshold is crossed without significant change taking place. With Ian Stewart breaking out of his own batting slumber, the Rockies do appear to have a semi-productive alternative path to take once again.

The major issue now becomes one of capitalization. Without a rebound from Garrett, it's hard to fathom how the Rockies will receive much of value in a return trade, and that situation doesn't get better when he's on the bench. By holding onto Atkins for too long, the Rockies front office has seemingly put itself in a lose-lose situation.

Of course, in the winter, what Rockies fan would have accepted an Atkins trade for yet another fifth starter caliber pitcher and nothing else, particularly in the wake of the disappointment many felt in the return for Matt Holliday? Much as we like to assume that the grass is always greener in the Metrodome, we also don't realize that it's not really grass. If the Rockies were able to trade Atkins to the Twins or another team for another #5, and said #5 doesn't outperform Jason Hammel/Franklin Morales, only does what a #5 does and matches them, than the gamble to hold Atkins makes more sense.

The Rockies didn't see the same fire sale backlash in their early season ticket sales and they have only lost the value Atkins has subtracted with his play on the field thus far. Was avoiding the box office backlash worth the one extra "L" Atkins has provided the team so far? It might be that it actually was. It's an interesting question, though. It's turning out that he best time to deal Atkins would have been just after Rocktober, a period in which the front office sat on its hands. Since that time he's batted .271/.319/.431 with an OPS+ of 89.

***

The Astros 24 hits last night were the most by an NL team this season and also the most given up by the Rockies in the post-humidor era. More tidbits on the game are given by Tracy Ringolsby, including the continuing saga of Ian Stewart's reverse platoon split, with his seventh HR off of an LHP last night. Stewart could have a tough test of that today if he's in the lineup against a very left-handed effective Wandy Rodriguez. Glendon Rusch's innings eating swing work in the blowout last night was what he's employed by the team to do, now the question will be whether it pays off over the next two weeks, Jack Etkin writes.

Todd Helton confirms what I suspected, his early regular season struggles probably had a lot more to do with the cold, wet weather than an age related slide. The Denver Post's notes column has quotes from Todd and Dan O'Dowd on the first baseman, O'Dowd also says that there has been no trade interest in Manny Corpas and the article also has some injury updates already touched on in an Etkin story linked in yesterday's Rockpile.

Jim Armstrong writes about how the game is drifting back toward a speed and defense era, but not too quickly. Big mashing second basemen like Stewart show that we aren't going to see a return of Whiteyball just yet.

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Comments

Armstrong's Piece

was very good. Basicly what I’ve been saying. Baseball will be going back to the running days, but hitters are bigger and stronger and hitting is more advanced today so it will be a different era today than it once was. There will be hitting and home runs, and scoring, and stealing.

In fact I’ll say it will be a better era. Baseball for years was a boring affair. Like soccer games at was assumed every baseball game was going to end 2-1. There is a whole generation of “fans” that were lost. The guys just older then me in their 40s and 50’s that still assume baseball is a long boring game, These fans made pro Football in the 70’s big….cause baseball sucked.

But at the heart of baseball will always be the same winning formula: Pitching, Defense, and timely hitting.

And giving up 15 runs is NOT good pitching.

by Redhawk on May 14, 2009 9:10 AM MDT reply actions

Atkins Trade

If the Rockies were able to trade Atkins to the Twins or another team for another #5, and said #5 doesn’t outperform Jason Hammel/Franklin Morales, only does what a #5 does and matches them, than the gamble to hold Atkins makes more sense.

Hey, no big deal that he wasn’t traded while there was still some value. I’m sure teams won’t let:

a) his declining OBP over a three year period,
b) abhorrent starts to two of the past three seasons, or
c) below-average defense at both third and first (in a pretty significant sample last year)

deter them from making a trade. The projections are more optimistic on the rest of the way than his first 6 weeks demonstrated, but at this point it would take a major injury to a team in contention in order to boost his value above a 5th starter or young, high-risk, high-reward prospect in June or at the deadline.

And given that Hammel has been ineffective so far, Smith, Reynolds and Morales have been injured, and Hirsh has been awful in AAA, couldn’t the team have used a potentially quality fourth or fifth starter? In addition to adding pitching depth, it would have allowed for more regular playing time around the diamond.

by deacs on May 14, 2009 9:12 AM MDT reply actions

Atkins

right now would be hard pressed to bring back a AA relief pitcher. O’Dowd’s biggest mistakes is not capitalizing on moving assets when they have value. Selling at their highest, which would upset fans, but looking at the game on TV last night, is their such a thing left?

If the Rockies could move Atkins for literally nothing, and move his $9 million contract it would be a HUGE win for the organization. At this point I’d assume the Rockies would have to eat a portion of the contract…just to give him away.

Still It needs to be done……return be damned. It beats cutting ticket and food people (which is a VERY real possibillity). And the Draft is coming up as well, and I’d like the Rockies to draft and sign some talent, not just college Seniors that are already too old, just cause they are cheap.

by Redhawk on May 14, 2009 9:23 AM MDT up reply actions

cough 7.25 million-ish cough

Otherwise yeah, Atkins needs to be gone for the sake of roster/lineup flexibility, if nothing else.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on May 14, 2009 10:52 AM MDT up reply actions

er...$7.05 million

Plus he’s on the hook for another year of arbitration…and we all know how that usually turns out, right?

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on May 14, 2009 10:55 AM MDT up reply actions

Oh my god the fifth start debate rears its ugly head

At some point we have to assume that one of the 400 back of the rotation starters we have stockpiled will be semi competant.

by moomacher on May 14, 2009 9:24 AM MDT up reply actions

Amen to this

A 5th starter, you guys. He’s not expected to win all the time. He’s not even expected to break even! If one single candidate finds a groove and makes 5th, or 4th, his own then we have done well, and the law of averages indicates that with the depth (of choice, not of talent necessarily) we have to pick from, we’ll be fine. We could even revel in the fact that we have a position in which we can experiment, considering all the outfield positions are stagnant.

By all means look at where we could do with a high risk, high reward prospect within the organisation and go for it. But another mediocre, low-paid journeyman when we have a well running over with them? What’s the point?

by biondino on May 14, 2009 9:28 AM MDT up reply actions

Hammel hasn't been ineffective, he's been a "potentially quality" fifth starter.

There are ineffective outings, there are very good outings and you hope by the end of the season to get as many of the latter as you do of the former. This is what I’m saying, it’s easy for us to assume we get something better than that in a trade for another fifth starter, but at the end of the day, it’s another fourth or fifth starter and the safest assumption is that we get what we’ve gotten with Hammel so far.

So you could as well end up with your twelfth fifth starter, and he winds up in the Springs, and being out of options gets claimed at the end of the season for nothing. This has a pretty high likelihood of happening and is the exact scenario that happened with the Jamey Carrol trade for Sean Smith last year. No value added to the Rockies whatsoever in trading the player, but you do with trading Atkins take a box office hit. That’s a sure thing. The gamble that he rebounds and gets you something better was the decision that the team decided to take, he didn’t but I don’t know if I fault them for that decision as much as I do for the one prior to 2008.

by Rox Girl on May 14, 2009 9:28 AM MDT up reply actions

Carroll was a fan favorite too

I mean come on, he’s famous for the worst sac fly in the history of important moments that Holliday still managed to score on.

Trading Carroll for nothing at least freed up some salary space, as would Atkins.

He has a 12.4 LD%, a 47.4 GB%, and an IFFB% of 15.8. I’d cite that it was just a BABIP thing, but it’s not, he’s pulling everything weakly. Sure, there’s still some power there, but he needs to retune his bat entirely.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 14, 2009 9:56 AM MDT up reply actions

It's a matter of degree.

Carroll never had the media in his pocket like Atkins did, he didn’t have a big season for the Rockies like Atkins did in 2006 or the sex appeal. To compare his box office quotient with Garrett’s doesn’t make much sense. Rockies fans were far more disappointed to see Kaz Mat depart that winter than they were Carroll. I’m not saying trading Atkins for nothing doesn’t serve its purpose, but the salary relief isn’t equal to his salary number because Garrett does, or at least did, have that extra draw going for him. You’ve got to think like a DP poster, who read all of Atkins’ Troy Renck fanboy articles over the years or the baseball groupies that were drooling over Garrett. You push him out right on the back of a Holliday deal and ticket sales would have taken a nosedive, I’m not sure how they don’t until after Stewart and Fowler have done what they have these past few weeks to establish themselves as players for rank and file Rox fans to legitimately be excited over.

Salary space is only good so far as it is used correctly to address a team’s issues, the Rockies haven’t shown a very high proficiency

by Rox Girl on May 14, 2009 11:29 AM MDT up reply actions

Not only have they not shown a high proficiency but they also have not

shown a high willingness.

Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton

by pedalpusher on May 14, 2009 11:32 AM MDT up reply actions

And I understand that

I just don’t see a rebound happening, and the longer we waste outs with him, the more we’re gonna lose. Amusingly enough, David OhNo had it pegged:

I believe that should the Rockies start Atkins at third base they WILL NOT BE COMPETITIVE IN THE DIVISION THIS YEAR.

Although he was citing defensive issues, he should’ve been gone this past offseason.

As long as he’s taking playing time, we’re just a worse team. He provides nothing to this team that a replacement-level player couldn’t. In fact, he’s playing at a -6.5 VORP right now and a -0.7 WARP (-2.1 WARP3)

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 14, 2009 11:40 AM MDT up reply actions

Alright, sure, but that's not even what I was arguing.

The decision to play him now is separate from the decision to keep him in the offseason. The Rockies aren’t competitive right now with or without him, the only way* they would have been is if Atkins had rebounded or Stewart broke out earlier. Atkins has been a -0.7 win player, Barmes has been a +0.3 player, Stewart a +0.1 player, but Stewart’s more valuable than that when he plays third. This means that playing Atkins is costing the team about three runs every eight games. That’s a big chunk, and with Stew improving, it’s growing bigger. I’m not against giving Garrett 37 more AB’s to show he’s getting better, but I don’t think the team should give him any more rope than that and take swift, decisive action at that point to keep him from damaging the team any further.

Given the personnel and the makeup of the team, obviously if the Rockies didn’t overvalue certain players, better decisions were available.

by Rox Girl on May 14, 2009 12:20 PM MDT up reply actions

I can kind of see the fallout aspect

and it’s a tough thing to weigh. O’Dowd clearly overvalued Atkins, esp in the minnesota trade talks.

I’m not sure what Minny saw in Crede, or if he was their reaction to not acquiring Atkins, but he’s not really a good option either. Well, I take that back. He’s an excellent fielder.

I guess I just wanted to see the FO take an almost parental stance on this and say “Now Denver, Atkins is throwing a lot of guys out of position. Starting him is a mistake. We should trade him to make room for Stewart” and then we just get over it. I mean, is it worth 7M to be “classy” about it? In Helton’s case, there was money at stake, but he was still arguably worth it, all things considered. Atkins is worth none of it.

It’s hard to look back in time and argue “well rebound blah blah” because we obviously didn’t know then what we know now.

I feel bad for the guy, but it’s part of this whole nice loving comfort team we have going. Trade the man! Make the tough choice.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 14, 2009 1:08 PM MDT up reply actions

Fair Enough

And your initial point, that the team doesn’t need more fifth starters, is correct. If Francis was healthy this year, there wouldn’t even be talk of a “more effective fifth starter.” Marquis or Jorge would be there, and that’d be fine. They need quality in return. I’m just not sure that Atkins will improve enough for it to happen. Is this a repeat of 2007? Or, is this the year where he puts the first half of 2007 and the second half of 2008 together to make one crappy whole?

The team needs a more fawning press. The newspapers should spend two weeks talking about how Atkins is a great buy-low candidate because he’s going to have a huge second half, and blah blah blah. Then boom: the Angels trade Howie Kendrick or Brandon Wood for Atkins. Second base problems solved. Instead you have Terry Frei and Woody Paige mailing in article after article about the Monforts.

by deacs on May 14, 2009 10:10 AM MDT up reply actions

GM's

read scouting reports more then they read local newspapers from other markets.

Atkins salary for 2009 is $7 million dollars. . That’s a pretty good chunk of money even for a baseball club, especially in hard economic times. Right now Atkins isn’t playing over replacement level. To expect ANYTHING of value is dreaming, If a team would offer to take Atkins off the Rockies hands, and make the Rockie pay for June ($1.2 mill) and they would pick up July, August and Sept ($3.6 million) it would be a GREAT deal. What the Rockies would get is salary relief/savings, and that’s really needed, as much as a 2ndbaseman or #3 pitcher (which isn’t going to happen)

Atkins only value is his career .293 average, and a hope of some sorta rebound closer to his career average numbers.

by Redhawk on May 14, 2009 10:27 AM MDT up reply actions

Atkins decline

makes me sad. I remember the good times, he reminded me of Andres in 93 with the way you could just expect a line drive headed off the bat. Now, you can defend the guy with just a 3b and someone to cover first. Batspeed, sure. But approach too. Maybe interconnected. I don’t know, but he’s not the same guy.

In any event, its time to move on. However possible. Ian should have been handed the reins already, now there’s no longer any concievable reason to wait. As Redhawk said, O’Dowd’s biggest weakness is indecision, its like he’s dead set focused on obliterating the memory of Dealin’ Dan. Or maybe his hands are tied. Who cares, just do something.

Go Nugs. Living in LA, shocking the Lakers would make my year.

by Teekalong on May 14, 2009 11:16 AM MDT up reply actions

Well our problem too is our sentimental attachment to our players

they all came up together, made the WS, blah blah, so now it’s like telling an old friend that you need to move on.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 14, 2009 11:41 AM MDT up reply actions

No doubt

and I’m as guilty of that as anyone, considering I’ll be inconsolable whenever Todd finally moves on. But that’s neither here nor there.

Once the decision was made after last season to stand pat (charitably) while the Dodgers — a better team to begin with (and a team that we’ve finished ahead of exactly once ever) made significant moves, it was clear that we were not going to be competitive and rebuilding should begin. I dig RG’s comments above about box office, but to me trading Holliday was enough to signal the lack of competitive desire this year, and I doubt dumping Atkins would have made much of a difference to Joe Fan. No amout of “Spils plus Smith > Taveras plus Holliday” was going to matter to those folks.

So my point is, I guess, stop pretending. “Fronting” if you will. DOD and the owners tried to sell this as a competitive team, and it was not and is not and now its time to come clean. Past time.

by Teekalong on May 14, 2009 12:40 PM MDT up reply actions

Well that's kind of true

The last part that is. It was a lot of rose colored glasses, and honestly, a lot of it has shown up, like Seth Smith for example. He’s a stud.

We tripped coming out of the gates and fell flat on our faces.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 14, 2009 1:09 PM MDT up reply actions

This is what's killing me

SB’s on the rise does not mean that Ricky is coming back and David Eckstein is the new hero.

My original post ran wayyyyyy long so I made a fanpost.

ch-ch-ch-ch-check it out

http://www.purplerow.com/2009/5/14/875228/big-men-up-the-middle-this-aint

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 14, 2009 9:40 AM MDT reply actions

Atkins is worthless

Honestly, if we could get a AA relief pitcher out of him, I think we would be getting a steal. I really liked him when he came up and I believed that he would be an All-Star, but this is not just a bad start any more. He has three hits in MAY! His bat is noticeably slower and he rolls over everything.

The part that bugs me the most is the fact that it seems like he doesn’t care. Now don’t get me wrong, I know that it has been well documented that he is quiet guy, but at some point he needs to show that he cares about hitting, and winning. He has only grounded into five DP’s this year, but it seems like 1,000. His failures have come in the most clutch situations. After failing he just unstraps his batting gloves and takes off his helmet, looking as if he is hoping his seat in the dugout didn’t get cold while he was up to bat.
We get frustrated with Tulo for his immaturity, but at least there is no doubt that he cares. When he fails he gets pissed, and unfortunately many times that carries into his next few at-bats, but frankly, I would trade a few extra bad at-bats for Atkins if he would get pissed just once.

Check out my website...www.rockiesreview.com

by Sandlotkid8 on May 14, 2009 10:55 AM MDT reply actions

+1 on the seeming apathy.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 14, 2009 11:41 AM MDT up reply actions

I think

to a large part, its just the nature of baseball. There’s always another AB a few innings from now, and a new game tomorrow, etc.

For my part, I don’t want to see the guys going all Kevin Brown or Youkilis, throwing tantrums all the time. But the apathy can be frustrating, no doubt. In Atkins’ case, I agree — show us that you care, maybe we’ll be more inclined to get behind you.

by Teekalong on May 14, 2009 12:44 PM MDT up reply actions