Fixing the Rockies in Twelve Easy Steps
by Jeff Aberle on May 17, 2009 9:41 PM MDT
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Note, this is largely taken from a payroll relief standpoint (as the Monforts won’t look at it any other way) and takes into account the fact that some things just won’t be (and can’t be) done, like trading away Todd Helton. The result is what in my opinion is a young, hungry roster that will be ready to compete by 2011 at the latest. Consider the following twelve steps a modest proposal to the Monforts…
1. Do not re-sign/extend Clint Hurdle. Whatever magic he had with the players is gone now. If the Monforts are too cheap to fire him, fine. But they simply can’t re-sign him next year. The Rockies need a fresh perspective in the dugout…from an old face. Don Baylor should be the new manager of the Rockies. Seriously.
2. O’Dowd needs to either go now or stay for a few years. Dealin’ Dan’s years with the Rockies have been plagued by a lack of strong strategic planning with some good tactical planning. Unfortunately, this team really needs long term strategic planning—needing a serious reboot—and if O’Dowd isn’t the man for that, it is time to give him his walking papers. A GM in his last year is bound to get desperate and make moves that could cripple the team’s future growth opportunities at the expense of fleeting immediate benefits. There are plenty of GM candidates out there who are willing to commit to the youth and rebuild specifically around the great talent the Rockies have up the middle (Iannetta, Jimenez, Tulowitzki, Fowler).
3. Flip Brad Hawpe for a) a high-impact infield bat prospect, b) a sinkerballing, hard-throwing pitching prospect, or c) a combination of those/a second baseman that is not Clint Barmes. Hawpe is our hottest hitter right now (value as high as it will ever be), he’s signed for one year past this one for $7 million, and he’s at a position of depth for the Rockies. The Rockies could then bring up Carlos Gonzalez and be relatively fine. In addition, there are a dearth of power corner infield prospects right now in the system. Getting a power first baseman prospect for Hawpe that is a couple of years away would be perfect for the Todd Helton-blocked Rockies.
4. Trade Garrett Atkins (but be realistic on the return necessary to get him) to a team like the Twins or Astros that needs a third baseman. If the Rockies could get a decent reliever for Atkins and some salary relief that would be swell, but if it is effectively just the latter (maybe at PTBNL) we’d all be okay with it too. As a result, Stewart slides over to third base full time.
5. See if we can get a relief prospect at the deadline for Jason Marquis, who thus far this year has seen a resurgence in his value. Innings-eaters like Marquis are always overvalued at the deadline (see Hernandez, Livan) and getting a power bullpen arm back would be a bonus. Morales and Hammel have shown they can fill, at least in the short term, a rotation slot, and there is Smith, Chacin, Rogers, Reynolds, Hirsh, or even Deduno waiting in the wings.
6. The Huston Street sweepstakes could be hot and heavy this summer as big market teams like the Yankees, Mets, and Angels look for bullpen relief in the form of a proven high-leverage guy like Street—even if he is being paid $4.5 million and still has an arbitration year remaining. The return wouldn’t have to be exceptional to help the Rockies—an upside arm or toolsy infielder would suffice.
7. Omar Quintanilla is not depth…place him on waivers, keeping Baker as a stopgap utility guy only until he can be replaced by an EY2 type next year. In any case, neither should be in the Rockies’ long-term plans.
8. The Rockies need a real second-baseman. If they can’t secure one via one of the listed trades, the Rockies should aggressively move either Hector Gomez or Chris Nelson quickly through the system with the intent of having one of them start in 2010. They have been potential high-impact guys in the system for several years and need to either do so or step aside. The Rockies have to give them an opportunity at a high level to prove themselves.
9. Thou shalt not be married to marginal talent (read: Clint Barmes). Verily, Barmes is a utility infielder that is being asked to do too much. He’s even a solid bench guy, but is ultimately replaceable next year by a Gomez or a Nelson. In addition, Ryan Spilborghs is projected as a fourth outfielder that some teams could be valuing higher. If the Rockies can flip him or Matt Murton for a younger player, even with similar tools/upside in the outfield, that would be a bonus.
10. Sell high on Aaron Cook, if possible. He’s under contract for at least two years after this one and has shown signs of decline this year. The Rockies have several young starters that will be ready soon enough, and Cook could bring back ( this theme again) a young impact bat or arm.
11. Keep Jorge De La Rosa. His stuff is electric and he is the type of pitcher the Rockies should invest in for at least the next three years. He’ll be more valuable to the Rockies by the end of this year than Cook, if he isn’t already.
12. Following steps 1-11, build the 2010 roster along these lines. Note that some of the players traded for in the earlier steps should be on the team (and at least one would be), though I’m being pessimistic in the return (AKA no great second baseman traded for). This should be the big league club in 2010 (starters at each position listed first):
C: Iannetta, McKenry
1B: Helton, Prospect (from Hawpe/Cook, back-up at 1B and 3B)
2B: Nelson or Gomez, EY2
SS: Tulowitzki
3B: Stewart
LF: Smith, Murton
CF: Fowler, Spilborghs
RF: Gonzalez
SP1: Jimenez
SP2: De La Rosa
SP3: Morales
SP4: Smith
SP5: Hammel
Long Man: Chacin
Middle Relief: Corpas, Daley, Grilli/Hirsh
LOOGY: FA pickup
Set-Up: Weathers
Closer: Buchholz
And this roster is assuming that we get very little in immediate return for all of the players we would trade. The starting rotation is a little uninspiring but the hope is that with the trades and the draft we'd get a few more high upside guys in the system to fill out the rotation. Which brings me to the bonus 13th step:
13. Take risks in the 2009 draft! The Rockies will be saving a bunch of money if they trade the players they should this year, so why not go above slot and take some high risk/reward guys? Pay high-impact guys in later rounds well above slot to get them in the system. Don't stop there though. Expand efforts in Latin America, where the best chance of acquiring another Jimenez rests.
Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).
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I agree with almost everything you said,
except 3) Trade Hawpe. I realize that there is little to no chance that we can really contend this year, but why trade the best bat that we have right now? I think that a better choice might be to wait until next year (when his contract is up) and trade him at the deadline. It might be sacrificing a little bit of trading potential, given that Hawpe might not be hitting this well by the trade deadline next year. But (and I don’t want to sound like a gloomy gus or negative nancy or whatever) I don’t see the rockies contending this year or next year, so wouldn’t it be better to trade him to a contending team at the trade deadline?
Every day that Hawpe remains on the Rockies, he becomes less valuable to them as a trade asset...
Hawpe with almost two years left on his contract will bring back a much greater return than Hawpe with two months left on his contract—even with contenders having a greater sense of desperation. The sooner we trade Brad, the better return he will bring us. If he makes the All-Star team, he’s an even more valuable trade chip—an opportunity that can’t be ignored, especially because, as you said, the Rockies likely won’t be contending this year.
Eschew Obfuscation!
I agree with Jabberwocky on this, after a lot of thought.
This winter there was a lot of talk about how Holliday and Taveras leaving could actually make us better, and while some of it seemed a hint deluded, I think we may be in a similar position with Brad. We have to face facts that on his own, Brad can do little to make the club a success now, and we won’t have him in the future whatever happens. Considering he’s genuinely a star player, even an average trade (i.e. not a shrewd, or prescient, or lucky one) could bring us multiple players who will add non-negligibly to the major league team.
I’m slightly loathe to want to focus on rebuilding right now, because I don’t think we’ve blown this season yet, but time moves fast and if things don’t get better, then researching and developing a possible Hawpe deal makes a lot of sense.
Good points all, biondino and jabberwocky.
And thanks for the feedback.
At some point, is it possible to trade away too much talent? i.e., if you end up trading away all of you best players perennially, it seems like you would be in a constant state of developing potential prospects. Why not hold on to guys when they are performing for you, especially when they are the only guys performing with you?
The issue is they get expensive and they can end up blocking better talent
Hawpe is starting to reach his peak, and trading him like right now would get us the best return, as he’s batting at an unsustainably high level and he just looks solid in all aspects.
I’d still rather keep him to back up Helton, but corner IF is dime a dozen. Hell, we might just re-claim Joe Koshansky or something.
The problem is that Helton is blocking Hawpe is blocking Gonzalez, who may be a solid choice in RF, and as Helton is virtually immovable, Hawpe becomes the odd man out, and like I mentioned, garner a good return.
The problem will be if Gonzo isn’t all that he’s cracked up to be, the sheer weight of everyone who DOESN’T buy into trading Hawpe saying “Shouldn’t have traded Hawpe” will cause the website to break.
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
by Andrew Martin on May 18, 2009 4:06 PM MDT up reply actions
Not to mention those who were against the Holliday trade...
It would be a risk to trade Hawpe and go with CarGo, but it’s a risk that in my opinion is well worth taking.
Eschew Obfuscation!
Just a question here.....
Is Todd really immovable? If the FO went to Todd and explained the likelihood of him returning to the playoffs with the Rockies isn’t really great, I think he could come up with a group of teams to whom he’d accept a trade. Then it would be up to the FO to go work out a deal. Then you get some payroll relief (we’d probably have to keep a portion of Todd’s salary on the books) plus you ease up some of the blocking that’s going on.
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton
Yes, Todd Helton's contract is as close as it gets to immovable...
the sheer amount of dead money the Rockies would have to keep to get another team to trade for him would outweigh the result of us losing his bat, casual fans, and any marginal salary savings.
Sorry, but it isn’t happening.
Eschew Obfuscation!
Yep you're probably on the mark.
But a guy can dream can’t he?
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton
I wish we could have Hawpe at 1B, I really do
But right now, it seems as if Helton is the only thing keeping the very casual fans coming to the park. Nobody cares what Hawpe’s OPS is or the fact that Smith seems to have taken big steps in his UZR.
I mean, come on, he’s OPSing 1.067, can’t we keep him?
We pretty much need to move him. We need to do it quickly, quick like a band-aid.
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
by Andrew Martin on May 18, 2009 11:43 PM MDT up reply actions
Hawpe at 1st
What makes everyone think Hawpe can field at 1st? He hasn’t played there in a long time, is not a young player. He could be a bad fielder at 1st, too.
Damage done at 1B
Is less costly than damage done in RF
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
by Andrew Martin on May 19, 2009 9:35 AM MDT up reply actions
I question this statement
as the 1st baseman gets a lot more times to hold the ball then a RF. and if he drops a throw at first, it’s a base or more same as a RF.
Now….just about anyone can stand at 1st. Even David Ortiz.
I concur with this
I wonder what the relation to just catching putouts and actually fielding the position is? I mean, if you can’t catch a baseball, you shouldn’t be playing the sport. But how many runs is being a good defensive 1B (in terms of playing the ball of the bat) as opposed to being the guy who catches the ball and stands there?
In other words, is being able to field the ball more important than being able to pick the ball on an errant throw, or vice versa?
I honestly don’t know…
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
by Andrew Martin on May 19, 2009 12:47 PM MDT up reply actions
I would
think that being able to pick the ball is more important at first because a majority of your opportunities come from catching the throws. The first baseman should have a range about equal to that of a third baseman, as long as the pitcher can cover the bag. Saving runs by not dropping the ball and saving teammate errors is more important because those are the guaranteed outs if the bad throw is fielded well.
"There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem - once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit." ~Al Gallagher, 1971
JFK
you can sacrifice range at 1B
you don’t have nearly the number of fielding chances you do at SS
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
by Andrew Martin on May 19, 2009 2:17 PM MDT up reply actions
That's why
I said 3b, not SS. Hopefully 2b has good range.
"There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem - once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit." ~Al Gallagher, 1971
JFK
Well
we’ve just walked into one of the interesting debates in baseball. Traditionally you put the worst fielder on the team at first. Now it seems there is more emphasis on range and glove at first, which to me makes sense to me. They are touching the ball A LOT. And more then anyone else on the team besides the pitcher and the catcher, so it goes to reason the 1st baseman should have some glove/range/defense ability.
But…where do you put the guy that can hit but has no glove? Left Field? cough Manny cough
For me at 1st it’s a trade off, and there is a balance some where, on Fielding and Hitting. If he’s a great hitter, ok…he can stand at first, if he’s just a good hitter, he better be better defensively.
It’s easier to sacrifice defense and range at first then any other position…but there is a tipping point.
Runs are runs
Hawpe could be better at 1st than he is in RF. However, if he’s still poor there, then that takes some value away from the move. Even if he’s fewer runs below avg at 1st than he was at RF, the value of his bat would also be weighed against other 1B’s rather than RF’s.
If he’s really 20-30 runs below average in RF, though, he’d have to be a really bad 1B to make up the difference.
And of course, perhaps he’d be just fine at 1B. I just wanted to raise the point because fielding a decent 1B could be more difficult for Hawpe than we thought, esp. at this point in his career.
Depends...
Helton is owed a lot…~53M or so: ~12.8M for rest of 2009 (just pro-rating off the number of games left), 16.6M for 2010, 19.1M in 2011 with a 4.6M buyout for 2012.
If the Rockies are as short of money as some posters seem to think (which seems a little doubtful to me, but what do I know), getting a team to take half of this is worth a lot. Though, you’d still have to get a team to take half!
Whether it’s worth it in the sense of enabling them to do something and make up for missing his 130 OPS+ depends on what they think they can do with the money, and just how cash-strapped they relaly are.
Well, I guess that's what I was thinking.
Surely someone would take Todd for 8 mil a year. The problem is going to get someone to sign on for 2011, IMO. Now if you can clear out 6 mil for the rest of this year and 8 mil + for next year, that would do two things: (1) free up some money for other uses and (2) clear up to some extent the blockage in the OF if Hawpe is moved to first.
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton
Hawpe
I think the real impetus for looking into trades for Hawpe isn’t so much because he’s expensive or blocking talent, it’s that he is someone who might have value to other teams and is more replaceable than other potential chits (Iannetta, Tulo, and I’d say Cook as well). The corner OF is one place where the Rockies have some talent, and they should look into moving it to see if they can get some value in return.
I think you’d have to do it soon, though. 2010 is his last pre-FA year; if you wait until the offseason, it will be like trying to trade a less valuable version of Holliday. (He has a team option for 2011, but Cots says Hawpe can void it if traded.)
Now, if you hang on to him as his contract increases, and if say he doesn’t age well (he turns 30 this year, and is slow), yeah, then you’re stuck.
well he's blocking Gonzalez sort of
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
by Andrew Martin on May 19, 2009 2:18 PM MDT up reply actions
CarGo better be good
if we trade Holliday and Hawpe to make room for him.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on May 19, 2009 2:42 PM MDT up reply actions
Plenty of options for CarGon
Hawpe has 2 guaranteed years on his deal including 2009. It’s hard to say he’s blocking CarGon this year because not a whole lot was expected out of CarGon. I don’t think his big numbers thus far this year scream “call him up” because he’s still young (23) and has many more AB’s worth of poor to mediocre performance in his record. Which is to say, I don’t see a problem with giving him more time in AAA to develop.
If it seems he’s worth a call up later this year, there’s the option of playing him in CF (depending on how his fielding there is and how Dex is doing) and in LF.
Seth Smith is a good player, but at 26, I think you can give away some of his AB’s to younger players.
Which is just to say that IMO, you don’t have to trade Hawpe because he’s blocking someone.
I should add that...
the points are basically in order of importance…though I might flip-flop on Hurdle/O’Dowd. Trading Hawpe is the single most important thing the Rockies should do in-season, after O’Dowd’s employment is sorted out. Trading Cook is more of a thing that should happen if the opportunity arises.
Eschew Obfuscation!
Where does Francis fit into the staff 2010?
wow, this is why purple row is starting to effect my work…How can I concetrate on 30 seniors a class period in spring when I have articles like this to chew on for a while….If I get fired, how bout a bailout?
Ummmm wow , thats a lot of faith in the system that has created some eye popping talent and some eye popping flops after some strong years, but relying on Hammels and Smith at the bottom is not much step up from this year, and when bad JDLR shows back up I dont want him as my #2…
But a great take and way more aggresive than any of the gut-less wonders over at the
Post or the front office for that matter…But there has to be a balance between prospects and vetrans and that 2010 line-up has just wait until 2011 writen all over it
GO ROX
Francis won't be back in 2010 in my opinion...
his arm injury is too serious.
De La Rosa as our 2 starter doesn’t worry me as much as it seems to worry other people. I believe that he has legitimately turned the corner this year and that there won’t be Bad Jorge to the extent there has previously been in his career. Morales at 3 is more worrisome to me than DLR, as is Hammel/Smith in the back end. That and the bullpen looks very shaky from where I’m standing. I can’t fix everything in a year, unfortunately, but this is where the trades/draft would come in handy—fixing the bullpen.
Actually though, I think Hawpe could bring us a Bowden from the Red Sox or something like that. Boston needs a new DH (Ortiz officially sucks now) and Hawpe fits the bill.
And to be honest, the projected 2010 lineup doesn’t to me seem to be overly worse than the lineup we have now. Stewart and Smith with regular playing time + Carlos Gonzalez putting it together – Clint Barmes and Garrett Atkins = Success. Sure, the Rockies wouldn’t have Hawpe’s bat, but I think the net gain (on defense especially) now and in the future outweighs that.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on May 18, 2009 12:35 PM MDT up reply actions
Barmes would be a decent guy to keep around
He’s gonna end up in a mentoring type position, and with a glove as strong as his, it’s not bad to have him backing up the middle infield, and for the time being, starting. He isn’t a massive salary drain, he’s a positive influence in general. He’s not bad for the short-term, if we’re planning on kind of tanking the next season or two.
Unless Gomez makes a massive jump or Nelson gets it together, we might as well have a good glove plugged in.
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
by Andrew Martin on May 18, 2009 12:53 PM MDT up reply actions
Yeah, I flip-flopped on Barmes...
as long as we have a manager that could keep him in that reserve role, he could be that guy. I just think that the Rockies would be better served giving their young guys (namely EY2 and either Gomez/Nelson) a shot to regularly face major league pitching. And Barmes won’t be THAT cheap next year. He does make well over $1 million this year and will have an arbitration salary next year that is higher—too high IMO for the Rockies to be paying a reserve.
Eschew Obfuscation!
Yeah, that is a high pricetag for a bench role
I guess I’m ok with paying defensive skills like he displays.
Fangraphs suggests he’s worth far more than he’s making, based on runs prevented with the glove and whatever marginal value he provides with his bat, and I’m assuming that’s adjusted for 2B leaguewide.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1830&position=2B/SS#value
Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies
by Andrew Martin on May 18, 2009 1:26 PM MDT up reply actions
If we keep net gaining defence
There are going to be a lot of very boring ballgames in the future. Though I guess we could get rid of the humidor.
Hawpe for Bowden: I'm not too sure on this
I don’t think so. Due to his stuff and no-hitter, Buchholz is talked about more often, but the Sox have been reluctant to trade either player. There were rumors they were interested last offseason in Saltalamaccia but were unwilling to part with Buchholz. Salty would have filled a big hole for them. I think they have more confidence in their ability to find a cheap DH than a cheap catcher, and would be unwilling to move one of these guys for a DH fill-in.
Bowden is an example of a guy the Rockies could hope to get back for Hawpe/Cook...
especially as a piece to put a team over the top into playoff contention.
I’m not sure the Red Sox would do it, but there’s got to be some team (maybe Atlanta) who would do some kind of trade like that.
Eschew Obfuscation!
I have a lot of faith in JDLR actually.
99% of his problems were due to him mentally psyching himself out. He has really really good stuff and it looks like he has kept himself under control this year (except for that outing where he made a couple of errors and broke himself down because of that.) I’m not arguing that he’s like OMG-Jorge-should-be-our-ace good, but when he keeps himself under control I see him as a legitimate #2-3 guy.
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