Tuesday Rockpile: The fate of Corpas, Hurdle's lineup, and statistical musings

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 5, 2009 7:00 AM MDT in Rockpile Comment 67 comments

Finally hearing the racket from the Row (and apparently the clubhouse), Clint Hurdle has decided to solidify his starting line-up. At least more than it has been. Despite his recent struggles (2 for his last 17), Dexter Fowler is being given the CF job for indefinitely, leaving only LF and 2B as the only variable positions.

"I want to give this lineup a chance to go. With Dexter (Fowler) in center, we only have two positions where we are looking to move people in and out: second and left field," Hurdle said. "We will play the hot hand accordingly."-Renck

No word on the consistency of the actual batting order.

Also of note in the article, Manny Corpas has one more chance before being demoted, Greg Smith threw five innings in extended spring training, and Taylor Buchholz will throw his second bullpen session today.

Thomas Harding touches on the likelihood of Alan Embree finishing his career with 900 appearances, good for the top 30 all-time.

Amy Nelson at ESPN.com has an in-depth feature on former Rockies first-round pick Matt Harrington, seventh overall. The right-hander turned down a $4million offer from the Rockies in 2000 after his agent asked for $4.95million, a 25% increase overall 1999 1st overall pick Josh Hamilton. Harrington was drafted a record five times, never signed, and now works in Costco tire shop. I wish I were joking.

Strength and speed

Before yesterday, the Rockies were the only MLB team without a HR with at least two runners on base. Chris Iannetta's grand slam finally changed that...

...How do you recover from trading away your best hitter, he who led your team in HR each of the last three years? Well, you hit HR as a team. The Rockies have an MLB-best eight hitters with at least 3 HR, nearly double the league average of 4.23, and nearly three standard deviations higher. The A's, Giants, and Mariners only have one such 3 HR batter, and Matt Holliday is not one of them...

...The Rockies are currently in 2nd place in HR in the NL, trailing by one, and it's not just Coors Field. No team has more road HR in the NL than your Colorado Rockies...

...I was personally more worried about losing speed from last year's roster. In shedding Matt Holliday, Willy Taveras, and Scott Podsednik, Colorado lost 108 SB's from last year's roster, worth 77% of the team's total. Naturally, the Rockies rank #1 in SB in the NL, without a single proven SB threat at the major league level. Rockie thieves are safe an impressive 75% of the time. Thank you Dex.

...That means the Rockies are in position to finish #1 in both HR and SB in the NL. When was the last time a team lost a three-peat HR leader and over 75% of its SBs from the previous year to turn around and lead the league in both categories, all without adding a notable hitter via trade or free agency to fill that need? Don't look at me...I have no clue.

More fun prodding data after the fold.

RAR - Rockies pitchers are mean at the plate

Sunday, Rox Girl evaluated the NL West starting pitchers via RAR (runs above replacement) with the assistance of fangraphs. I decided to take into account offensive contributions as well, since the pitchers' bats contribute to the game, whether we want them to or not.

The Rockies have a strong advantage in at the plate for starting pitchers. In fact, of the six that manage to meet replacement level, three call Coors Field home:

Pitcher	Hitting RAR
Marquis	1.0
Geer	0.9
Morales	0.7
Jimenez	0.5
Gaudin	0.0
Silva	0.0

The full chart is available here. Note that due to small sample size, Geer, Morales, Gaudin and Silva could easily experience large fluctuation with one additional start.

This gives Rockies pitchers a small assist over pitching-only RAR numbers. Jason Marquis and Ubaldo Jimenez slide up to be among the top six most valuable starters in the division so far.

Pitcher	Pitching RAR	Hitting RAR	Total RAR
Haren	14.6	-1.9	12.7
Lincecum	12.0	-1.7	10.3
Billingsley	11.2	-0.9	10.3
Marquis	5.9	1.0	6.9
Wolf	7.4	-1.5	5.9
Jimenez	5.3	0.5	5.8

Full chart available here.

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Comments

Line-ups

reading between the lines of line ups being set besides 2nd and LF makes me think that Atkins has 3rd wrapped up, and that Stewart while an option at 2nd…isn’t endearing himself to Hurdle, as it shouldn’t take much to upstage Atkins at 3rd.

I’ve seen Atkins bat slow down dramatically…yet he’s still the clean up hitter? This makes no sense. If they (the coaches) think Stewart isn’t a viable replacement, than get Atkins OUT OF THE CLEAN UP SPOT!

And here’s a thought for you Hurdle: Maybe Stewart could use regular AB’s to help get going (Maybe not but how much worse could Stewart be hitting than Atkins has been?), and if both Stewart and Atkins can’t hit….Stewart is the better fielder. (In Atkins defense he has had a 2 multi-hit games in the last 10 games and Stewart is batting .086 over his last 10 games)

by Redhawk on May 5, 2009 8:34 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Thats the worst part

All the Stewart supporters have nothing to go on except “well if he got regular playing time and wasn’t afraid that going 0fer would get him benched for another week he’d be doing better”.

Atkins seems to get to the cusp of the pine and then have a 2 hit day with 3 RBIs and he’s back in the sunlight again.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 8:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stewart/Atkins

Stewart’s 5 for his last 44 at the dish – that’s enough to push just about everybody to the bench, at least for a while. Maybe he needs a couple of those ‘work days’ that seem to have worked for Tulo and Iannetta. I did like seeing him as a defensive replacement for Atkins last night – an implicit statement by Hurdle that he knows who the better defender over there is, perhaps? I hope so, anyway.

Atkins looks like crap right now, obviously, but his career numbers earn him a certain amount of carte blanche that he hasn’t burned through quite yet. If you’re hunting for something positive for him, his walk rate is up and his K rate and K/BB ratio are down so far this year from last.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on May 5, 2009 8:52 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

And last was down from the year before

I’m not sure why we’re making him out to be a storied veteran (we meaning us and Clint Hurdle) who has years and years of elite performance to justify this. He had 1 good season. He followed that with 4/6 of a good season. He followed that with a poor season.

Sounds like a flameout to me. NEXT

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 8:54 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Atkins

did have a great swing, it was sweet and smooth. I really thought at one time several years ago, he was Wade Boggs part deaux. Now his bat has slowed way, way down. It is possible that he can adjust his timing of his swing to make up for that some what, but starting to swing early will leave him vulnerable to late movement on pitches. In other words, Atkins could get a little better..but I don’t think he will ever be back to where he once was offensively.

I have my doubts on Stewart as well…but he at least has “Potential” (“fancy word meaning he ain’t done it yet”. Satchel Paige)

Speaking of potential…..this is where I mention giving Eric Young Jr. a shot. He could be broken in slowly, hang out with Barmey….learn fielding and hitting in low stress settings.

by Redhawk on May 5, 2009 9:01 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty much right on the first 2 paragraphs

and I don’t disagree with the 3rd. I just read somewhere – and I think it was from Tim Kurkjian’s book “Is This A Great Game or What?”, but the concept that an older player will mentor a younger player is kind of flawed. It applies here as well, why would Barmes willingly help train up the guy looking to replace him? I mean, if we know Barmes at all, he seems like the kind of guy who’d be a team player enough to do it, but if it means his roster spot or EYJ’s, why on earth would he give up his job?

I want to see a better bat at 2B as well, and I think EY and Barmy would be a wash when you combine Offense and Defense.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 9:16 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Satchel Paige quotes

Priceless. I always made fun of my friends who tried to say they loved players they’d never seen like Ted Williams or whatever, but then I learned about Satch and fell in love. 99% legend? Sure, but still awesome.

…and right on, here. I agree that I want to see Stewart more, but its more about getting him straight for the future than what he might offer now. Though I’m also getting the itch to see CarGon too, so maybe I’m farther along the “rebuild” road than others.

by Teekalong on May 5, 2009 11:23 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't say that's rebuild

Rebuild is the 2004 Rockies.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 11:24 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Was that rebuilding?

Or just “fielding a team?” And I just looked at the stats, did Burnitz really have that good of a year? One upside to that season was going to a game at Dodger Stadium where Vinny hit one nearly out of the yard, Vin Scully still talks about that bomb.

by Teekalong on May 5, 2009 11:28 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

rebuild is you just field a team for cheap, keep some fan favorites around

and then wait for the minor leaguers to be ready to go.

05 was the “realization of the farm” year.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 11:44 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt you're "rebuilding" as such

I reckon you’re getting that itch because a) our current players are either limited or inconsistent and b) of course you want to see what a genuinely exciting but unproven young talent can do, and when you see players in the team who are themselves not playing any better than replacement value you maybe see there being no downside and a lot of up, if only because of the novelty?

by biondino on May 5, 2009 11:34 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

"4/6 of a good season"?

Where I come from, we just call that ‘a good season’. Pretty excellent season, actually, and it followed a season in which he was a top ten hitter in the National League (we call that a ‘great season’).

I’m not trying to fight with you, man, we both agree that he’s hurting the ballclub right now and I’m hardly expecting his 2006 form to just reappear any day now. I’m just saying he’s got what Clint Hurdle would call a ‘track record’. And “PFFFFT HE SUX NEXT” doesn’t exactly advance the dialouge.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on May 5, 2009 9:03 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right on principle

And I’ll take 4 good months, provided that the 2 not-good months are like still above replacement level, with solid you know? Remember how AWFUL Atkins was the first 2 months of 2007?

Maybe he’s due for another season like 2007, but the problem is now that we have a real replacement for him in Stewart. We can’t sit on our hands.

How are we supposed to advance the dialogue? We’ve beaten him almost to death between the offseason and his miserable start thus far.

I wasn’t saying “NEXT” like “DONE TALKING TO FRANCHISE26” I meant “Well this guy’s doomed, who do we have ready to start?”

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 9:14 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know you didn't mean that

I guess I’m just trying to explain why Atkins’ playing time is only on my third-to-last nerve instead of my last one. I don’t think this bad start = “Oh my GOD he BLOWS”, necessarily, but yeah, he’s got to make adjustments otherwise pitchforks and torches every time he’s penciled into the four-hole start to sound reasonable.

And thinking back, yeah, we have kinda flogged the Atkins/Stewart horse. But they’re different hitters – Stewart’s going to hit more bombs and strike out more, while Atkins, theoretically speaking, will draw a few more walks and find more gaps. The better fit for the lineup right now, with Stewart struggling as he is in what’s really his first full big league season, is Atkins, until he has proven beyond any sort of doubt that he’s not the trusted ‘RBI guy’ Hurdle thinks he is. And that day may be coming fairly soon.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on May 5, 2009 9:29 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

The concern I have

is how far away “fairly soon” is. It’s no secret that I’ve wanted to trade Atkins since I started regularly posting here, so my bias is clear.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 9:47 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

You guys are correct

we have beaten the Atkins horse.

And this brings up an area of concern for me. Depth in the minor leagues. Looking at 2nd we have EY2…and really no other hope. We have a good OF prospect in CarGo, and a utility guy in Colonel. But do we have any more prospects? I mean real legit starting prospects close? (by close I mean AAA, AA)?

The reason for the concern, is even if a player is a can’t miss prospect…they miss all the time (more so in the post ‘roid era). That’s why I’m actually thinking trading both surplus bodies (we have extra OF’s, Utility guys, and #5 SP) for more useful bodies (middle INF, Corner IF, bullpen arms) needs to be starting to happen. (not to save 09…but to help the organization in future years)

Any 2nd baseman on other teams systems that would be desired like the One Ring?

by Redhawk on May 5, 2009 9:48 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess maybe Pedro Alvarez

But he’s more a corner IF, and from what I’ve heard, not a stellar one, either.

Probably Alcides Escobar or Gordon Beckham, maybe Tim Beckham

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 9:54 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

But either of them bend it?

by ch3cooh1 on May 5, 2009 9:55 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Escobar and G. Beckham are probably only equal to what we already have.

T. Beckham would be worth giving something up for, but he’s still got some work to do before he’s MLB ready.

by Rox Girl on May 5, 2009 10:01 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

which would give us a glut of IF, and push this forward 3 years and we're out of OF and have like 29 2B

If we build on Smith/Dex/Gonzo, and then (assuming he has a consistent bat etc) Stewart-Tulo-Nelson/Gomez?-Hawpe, we’ll end up with Gomez/Nelson riding the pine as the UTIL.

I’m really impressed with Gonzo in AAA as well.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 10:06 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't give up on Chris Nelson.

Do not give up on Chris Nelson. The guy is the CarGo of the infield for us, he’s easy to dismiss after so-so performance but he’s athletic enough to be more of a can’t miss guy than anybody we’d scrounge up from other teams, and now we’ve got Hector Gomez making a strong push to be moved to AA soon himself, so if you’re not necessarily looking at 2009, but 2010 and beyond, I think we’re just fine as far as 2B goes.

by Rox Girl on May 5, 2009 9:57 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't realize he was 23

I thought he was 25 by now, and my immediate reaction was “pfffff jayson nix 2.0” but he’s looking pretty decent in AA.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 10:00 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

You know what's crazy about Jayson Nix in 2009?

The guy has zero strikeouts so far this season. For that swing, and that eye to have zero means that are several Southern and International League pitchers that aren’t doing something right.

Anyway, Nelson should at least be able to pass the Nix standard, the bigger test is passing the Barmes standard. You’ve got one guy (Barmes) with little natural talent and few skills playing well over his head, and another with lots and natural talent and few skills playing under his. Nelson should be able to win that showdown easily, but who knows? Barmes has carved a nifty little MLB career out for himself by defying expectations and being in the right system that doesn’t really seem to go out of its way to give him serious competition.

by Rox Girl on May 5, 2009 10:15 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nix has a K this year...for the ChiSox

He started playing for them Sunday, as their leadoff hitter. Guy has one K and three hits in 7 ABs

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 5, 2009 10:19 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I randomly turned on ESPN radio the other night and heard the announcer say he ripped a single to left, and I almost crashed my car.

by Teekalong on May 5, 2009 11:36 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

good to hear

After looking at my rambling post, what I guess I was saying how fast a pipeline can get empty, or at least get that big gap of nothing as the next wave comes through.

by Redhawk on May 5, 2009 10:00 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you on this, actually.

As much as I want to see Stewart given a full time opportunity, I see it more as a developmental win later move than a win now move, and that’s because Ian’s bat has just been too inconsistent to make me think he’ll thrive with an everyday role.

by Rox Girl on May 5, 2009 9:50 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

How do we know until he is given the everyday role though?

I know we keep talking about him replacing Atkins, but why not replacing Barmes at 2B. I know we lose a little defensively, but he would give us a lot more at the plate and give us a good player on the bench.

It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.

by smokinRox on May 5, 2009 10:15 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Theoretically

but Barmes is far outperforming Stewart at the plate right now too

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 5, 2009 10:20 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

In what way?

Barmes Slugging .448, Stewart .462, Barmes OBP .286, Stewie .349, Barmes OPS .733, Stewie .811. Barmes has 1 more 2B in 15 more AB’s and an equal number of HR’s. Stewie has 8 BB’s to 2 BB’s for Barmes. How is Barmes far outperforming Stewie at the plate?

It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.

by smokinRox on May 5, 2009 10:59 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Check the past 14 days

In a “what have you done for me lately” sense, Barmes has him beat.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 11:01 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

So he outperformed Stewie

for 14 days and he’s the better offensive threat, sorry not seeing it.

It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.

by smokinRox on May 5, 2009 12:10 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I prefer stewart as well

I’m just presenting data

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 1:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

That Harrington story is actually kind of sad.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 8:54 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Definitely makes you wonder what might have been

If he signs that $4.9 million contract, does he enter the system get developed the right way, not blow his arm out and become the Rockies ace they’re currently looking for? Or does he blow it out anyway? Do the Rockies take more chances on talented HS pitchers in the draft if he signs?

by Rox Girl on May 5, 2009 9:47 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

This an e-mail that I wrote to RockiesMagicNumber about Harrington

The closest parallel I can draw is a game of Deal or No Deal where the one trusted person on the couch keeps yelling to pick more cases even as the big amounts keep coming off the board.

It’s simply a game of risk aversion “I’m willing to forego $50k for a 1 in 7 chance of winning $250k” or “I don’t like those odds I’d like to cash out.” And since it’s all house money (the player isn’t going to leave the studio with a dime less than what they walked in with) it warps people’s sense of risk. We all like to say we’d take the first offer but once in the game people are going to act differently.

The other thing that warps it is the information they give you. They tell you what dollar amounts are still in play. What if they only told you that the 36 cases contained amounts between $0.01 and some amount >$1mm but not the individual amounts. Then does that change how people play? Absolutely

This, essentially is what happened to the Harringtons. They assumed that the dollar amounts ranged from nothing to $4.95mm. When the first offer came in at $2.2mm they decided to keep playing because they (erroneously) assumed that the big money was still out there and were comfortable with the amount of risk. The offers kept getting smaller and the deadline kept getting closer so turning down, say, $500k thinking that the $4.95mm was still out there sounded like a good gamble. They were playing with imperfect information that was being fed to them as “sound” advice from the agent. And in the end they were left holding the bag.

by ch3cooh1 on May 5, 2009 9:50 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

What gets me

is why they thought he should get a 25% raise above the previous year’s #1 overall pick, when he was #7. Thy asked for $4.95m, and the previous year’s #7 pick was paid $2.1m. I know I can’t possibly truly put myself in his position, but how you could expect a 235% increase from the previous year is beyond me. The Rockies almost doubled it as is…

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 5, 2009 10:03 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not really doubled

If you’re giving up arb years, that needs to be taken into account.
His stock had fallen because he was perceived to be a “difficult” sign, and hindsight being what it is, he probably should’ve had a “misinformed” tag associated with his name as opposed to “difficult”… If he had had competent representation, he likely could’ve gone #1 and been worth a raise on #1 money.

I’m glad he’s come to peace with his journey, or lack of journey as it were.

by rockieprogress on May 5, 2009 10:23 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

My mistake

I misread the article…the Rockies offered about a $2mil signing bonus, about even with Kyle Snyder of the previous year. I had thought the $4mil was the signing bonus.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 5, 2009 10:27 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

How could they expect it?

That’s a good question. The answer I can come up with: Pretty easily. Bear in mind that I’m no agent, I’m just a half-ass engineer but this probably the pitch the agent came up with.

I pulled the signing bonuses for the first pitcher taken in every draft from 1993 through 1999 and then added the the $4.9mm that Tanzer was after. What I found wasn’t really that surprising.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v316/ch3cooh/pitchers.jpg

It fits a polynomial regression pretty well. The only real outlier there is 1995 when the Cubs signed Kerry Wood and his history of throwing 100+ pitches on a regular basis. If you remove that data point the R^2 increases to over 0.99

So Tanzer sits down with the Harringtons, who admittedly know nothing about the business of baseball, and puts a graph like that in front of them and tells them that he believes that Matt is the top pitching prospect in the draft regardless of where in the top-10 he gets drafted. The Harrington’s not having any reason to doubt Tanzer get that number in their head and when the first offer of $2.2mm comes in this whole sordid affair starts.

by ch3cooh1 on May 5, 2009 11:41 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just an extra note

I adjusted the dollars for inflation at the recommendation of RockiesMagicNumber. Using statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics I converted all of the bonuses to equivalent amounts in the year 2000 (cue the Conan O’Brien fans). R^2 goes from .9853 to .977 which is still strong but a little weaker. This, again, is due to the Kerry Wood bonus. Adjusted for inflation the differences between it and Paul Wilson’s in 1994 and Kris Benson’s in 1996 are even larger.

RockiesMagicNumber accuses me (via text) of being really bored. I just happened to find this little research project more interesting than the other stuff I’m working on today.

by ch3cooh1 on May 5, 2009 12:04 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good work

but there’s still a huge flaw in demanding money for being the top pitcher taken when you were actually the fourth. Regardless of where he “should” have gone due to signability concerns or otherwise, you just can’t demand first pick money from the 7-spot

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 5, 2009 12:05 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

The argument is inherently and fatally flawed

And that’s the point.

Tanzer sits down with the Harringtons and lays all of this out and declares Matt to be worth a $4.95mm bonus. The Harringtons, not being businesspeople, have no inkling that they should doubt Tanzer and scale their expectations based on where he was drafted in the first round. After all they hired him specifically for this kind of advice.

by ch3cooh1 on May 5, 2009 12:15 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, the agent is not negotiating only in the interest of his client. Since the agent is entitled to a cut of whatever the player gets from the team he is also negotiating in his own self-interest. So after being told that Matt is worth $4.95mm dollars the first offer from the Rockies comes in at $2.2mm. From that point on the Harringtons are taking the advice of someone who is also trying to maximize the amount of money he can get for himself.

Going back to the Deal or No Deal analogy, they were being given bad information and playing a game they don’t understand. They thought their case had $4.95mm in it. As they continued to play the game they did not adjust their expectations based on the offers being made for that case. They did not make these adjustments because the person they brought in to advise them on these matters (and acting partially out of self-interest) was not telling them that they should. Instead they continued to believe that they were sitting on $4.95mm despite what the contract offers were telling them.

by ch3cooh1 on May 5, 2009 12:36 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you find it at Cot's or BA?

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 1:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bit more complex than that

Most places just had annual compensation nothing broken out for bonuses. So I had to use Wikipedia to find the first pitcher selected in each draft and then do some googling to find press accounts of the bonuses.

The Harrington info I pulled straight from the ESPN article

by ch3cooh1 on May 5, 2009 1:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Once again Hurdle is too in love speed

The Rockies suffered with Taveras last year. He was in the lineup way too much because of the “possibility” of his speed on the bases, and going for some MLB record, but it was not a good team decision, and here he is again going with Fowler. Treat him like everybody else, benched when cold, like now, and send to minors if he can’t measure up. Word is getting out on his weaknesses and he is getting caught stealing. He’ll be back but don’t make the team suffer because you love the press and “possibilities”. The Rockies have a bench ready to contribute offense and can cover the outfield just fine with Spilborghs, Smith and Stewart

by indianrox on May 5, 2009 11:13 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

he is getting caught stealing.

Twice. In 11 attempts. That’s pretty good. He got gunned down last night by a catcher with one of the best arms in the game.

Why do you not like Dexter Fowler? It’s pretty obvious that you’ve got sort of an axe you’re grinding against him.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on May 5, 2009 11:17 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh

The Rockies are fourth in the league in stolen base success rate. At 75%. That’s really good. Especially when considering we don’t have a proven thief, and our best is a rookie

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 5, 2009 11:50 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Every proven thief was a rookie at some point.

by ch3cooh1 on May 5, 2009 11:51 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Naturally

It’s just that most take a little while getting going as a rookie. Stealing bases is an art of timing, understanding the pitcher and sometimes a cat and mouse game. Those are skills learned later on (usually)

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 5, 2009 12:06 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Glenallen Hill has been working closely with Dex

to time good base stealing counts and situations.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 1:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

"When you see a spider..."

…Run!

by FooMan on May 5, 2009 1:48 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Disturbingly

UZR likes Spills in CF more than Dex. Granted, Sample Size, but it suggests that Smith LF Spills CF is a better combo.

Just throwing that out there.

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 11:56 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fangraphs also says

Hawpe has the worst OF arm on the roster, and by quite a bit. Does that make sense to anyone?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 5, 2009 12:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not "arm," it's holding runners...

IIRC, the “arm” rating is based on baserunner “kills” and how many runners took an extra base. Hawpe’s assists have been way down in past years, so that takes away the benefit of the extra outs. Given his slooowness in the field, it seems reasonable to me that he’s not in a position to make throws to hold runners, either.

by FooMan on May 5, 2009 12:28 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, small sample size

UZR for so few events needs to be taken with large grains of salt, as well.

by FooMan on May 5, 2009 12:29 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Both of these points +1

Matt Murton status: Freed
Garrett Atkins status: Not Traded
Clint Hurdle status: Still Employed by the Rockies

by Andrew Martin on May 5, 2009 1:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Last year

Remember how awful it showed Spilly to be in center last year (in a small sample size as well)?

While the newer defensive metrics might be statistically accurate there are still a few guys who break the system each year even over the course of an entire season.

Fortunately FSN is showing 150 games this year so those of us in the region can see for ourselves what kind of range our outfielders have and I don’t imagine that it took any of us more than a week to become convinced that Fowler has exceptional range in center.

Spilly’s range (or lackthereof) is much more difficult to determine simply from watching him play on TV and that is where the defensive metrics (if a sufficient sample size is available) can be especially useful.

by MADness on May 5, 2009 3:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pardon me while I get my Hurdle-bashing on

So, naming Dex the full time CF equates to solidifying the lineup (2B and LF notwithstanding)? What about the playing time between Iannetta and Torrealba? Yorvit has started game #s 3, 5, 10, 13, 16, 19, and 22. The starters for Yorvit’s games have been Morales twice, JDLR twice, Cook once, Jimenez once and Marquis once. From game #10 on, Yorvit has started every 3rd day (this trend will continue if he starts tonight). Does this really count as having a solid lineup? Or should this be chalked up to the fact that catchers take a beating behind the dish and necessarily need more offdays? For some context, Iannetta has played in 17 games, which—along with Nick Hundley and Chris Coste—ranks seventh among NL Catchers. Pudge Rodriguez leads all NL backstops with 25 games played.

Manager Clint Hurdle made an interesting confession before Monday’s game.

Solidifying the lineup is something that should happen in spring training. Don’t confuse this with solidifying the roster. Hurdle unwittingly confessed that he didn’t do in spring training what an MLB manager should. I could continue to rant, but I’ll leave it there.

"DAMMIT! No, calm down. Learn to enjoy losing." --Hunter S. Thompson

by PioneerSkies on May 5, 2009 3:56 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Just speculating

but I think a few of those Yorvit starts are more about CDI’s awful start than some sort of master plan. Once (if) CDI gets it together, Yorvit will sit more.

by Teekalong on May 5, 2009 4:55 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs