Thursday Rockpile: What it will take to sign Matzek, and oh yeah, we're winning. A lot.
by Rox Girl on Jun 11, 2009 9:26 AM MDT
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PrintSo the Rockies win streak continues, the draft continues, and our fretting over whether top pick Tyler Matzek will sign or not continues, this is all still a much better position to be in than we were a month ago.
Back to the middle link in the above sentence to a Troy E. Renck blog entry at the DP because I want to explore the Matzek issue a little. The following are the largest signing bonuses ever handed out by the Rockies according to Baseball America, as well as the highest value of a contract the Rockies purportedly offered 2000 first round selection Matt Harrington:
| Name | Year | Bonus |
| Greg Reynolds | 2006 | $3,250,000 |
| Jason Young | 2000 | $2,750,000 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 2005 | $2,300,000 |
| Chin-Hui Tsao | 1999 | $2,200,000 |
| Chris Nelson | 2004 | $2,150,000 |
| Matt Harrington | 2000 | $4,900,000* |
Matt Harrington never signed and the money was for an eight year contract, not a bonus, you can read more about his saga here.
So this will all be speculation on my part, but I'll try and spell out where I'm coming from. At any rate, my first point would be that Matzek can expect to top Reynolds' bonus, so Renck's estimate of a $2.8 million to $3 million offer being the highest the Rockies will go to haul him in seems doubtful. Reynolds had more experience and a better draft position, but everybody has to be honest here that Matzek's the superior talent. At the other end of the spectrum, the Rick Porcello deal that Matzek wishes to emulate (like Harrington's offer it wasn't a true bonus but a four year contract) seems a scarier bridge to cross than it might turn out to be. I doubt a Matzek contract with the Rockies reaches that sum, but if he's able to step off of it, using Porcello as a model of sizable bonus plus an MLB contract might be more within the team's grasp.
I'm also looking at the deal that Matzek's agent Greg Genske worked out with the Reds and Yonder Alonso last season as a model. It's another MLB contract which came in at a value just over $4.55 million dollars for the seventh selection of the 2008 draft. Alonso was a college draftee and a position player, so there's an expectation of earlier success built into that, but looking over those negotiations gives us a sense of how Genske operates. I think piecing everything together gives us the following for what we should expect a Matzek deal to look like were it to get done.
- A signing bonus north of $3,250,000, breaking the Rockies record
- Additionally, it's likely to be an MLB contract similar to Porcello or Beckett that will pay him more over four or more seasons
- Incentives like those in the Alonso contract including college tuition and family trips to see his debut as well as bonuses for awards such as the ROY he earns
- A sum value of the contract less than Porcello and Beckett, but at least equal to what the Rockies offered Harrington, which puts it somewhere between $4.9 million and $7 million.
Are the Monforts and the Rockies willing to go this far? Is Matzek willing to drop down to that Harrington level to get a deal done and his professional career started?
Related: Buster Olney: Signability still an MLB draft trump card - ESPN - Buster Olney Blog on ESPN.com.
While signing Matzek might be an issue, not so with most of our other picks. Both fourth round selection Kent Matthes, a right fielder out of Alabama, and fifth round selection Joe Sanders, a third baseman from Auburn, expect to sign and start playing quickly in the Rockies organization. Both are relatively polished and from the South, so while I would expect them to be sent to Tri-City, Asheville might not be completely out of the question. That said, I watched the Tourists last night, and they seem to be clicking fairly well with their current mix of players, I'm not sure who would get bumped there and where to make room.
Same goes for supplemental pick Rex Brothers and our other first round selection, Tim Wheeler:
Said Wheeler: "The signing thing will happen in a few days, I'm sure, but right now, I'm just really excited about being drafted."
****
Fowler getting on base often, fueling revival - The Denver Post - OBP is good.
Christian Friedrich is turning heads as a Colorado Rockies prospect - ESPN - Jason Grey says that a scout sees Friedrich as a top of the rotation starter in the Erik Bedard mold. This was copied and pasted as a FanPost last night/early this morning. Please do not do this, link the story in a FanShot, but don't just trample over copywright law
Tulowitzki putting muscle into bid to return to power - The Denver Post
Inside the Colorado Rockies " Quick hits: Starters earning wins
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Erik Stavert
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Signing Matzek
I really would like to know the behind the scenes conversations about Matzek. Did the Monforts approve of this pick before hand? If so, then I think the Rockies have a better chance of getting this done.
But (and I’ll let the pessimist in me shine here), What if Dan O’Dowd knows that the Monforts would never spend that kind of money. DOD drafts him any way, knowing full well, that he can’t get a deal done. At the end of the season, when I fully expect O’Dowd to be released/fired he can say, “See, I did a great job, it’s not my fault I wasn’t given the proper support/resources/financing. I was always having one hand tied behind my back. AND if/when I land at another job/organization remember I’m better then the team on the field showed”.
In other words drafting Matzek could be a gigantic C.Y.A. move.
Now if he signs, I will say that it will do a world of good in restoring my faith in this Rockies organization. (which I do think is the worst in baseball…I mean I understand trading away soon to be Free Agents, but there are only so many ways to get talent in a system, and they all require an investment in money at some point. Don’t want to pay for high priced vets, fine, I get that, then you have to draft, sign, and develop young guys then)
What about the possibility that ownership doesn't want to commit to Matzek type money this year but DOD
has convinced them to draft him, if they can sign him for a reasonable amount, fine but if not they get an extra pick next year? I’m beginning to believe that DOD will get extended because he does what the M&M boys want without too much hassle (that we know of).
Of course the downfall in this scenario is that the M&M boys won’t be any more likely to pay a high draft pick next year than this year.
I just don’t have confidence that they will pay the money necessary to make us a consistent contender.
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton
That's a middle ground scenario
I can see that being an option. Next year, they might get a college player that has little or no leverage, so you never know what another year will bring.
I just don’t have confidence that they will pay the money necessary to make us a consistent contender.
I agree. I have no confidence either. At a certain point a baseball team has to pay to play. There are costs of doing business and to having a successful business, wither that be a local corner deli sandwich shop, an accounting firm, or a major league baseball team. I don’t think the Monforts want to/or maybe can do much more then keep the doors open. That’s why signing Matzek to me would give me a boost of confidence, that they have a plan, and the resources to actually pull off that plan.
2nd thought,,,worse scenario:
hell, that might even be the conversation. “we have the 11th pick….that’s 1.8 million in slot, but it’s early first round so every is over slot…um we don’t have that money…pick Matzek, he won’t sign, and thus, we don’t have to spend money on an 11th pick.”
It's like lotto.
Keep picking till one signs, and all your fans have committed hari-kari.
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
Well, hara-kari, but still.
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
Let's try hara-kiri.
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
Eh. Should've just gone with seppuku. Less 'i's and 'a's. :D
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
yeah that's where I usually just end up
otherwise I’m disemboweling myself with a dead Cubs announcer
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 11, 2009 10:21 AM MDT up reply actions
If this is DOD's plan
not only should he be fired immediately but should be beat up in the streets at high noon. If the Monforts did not approve, he should not be employed. Messing around in the first round has already cost us enough. Moreover, now that it has happened and regardless of how, signing this pick is a must for the organization and if it doesn’t get done it will be an incredible disappontment.
For once I’m actually optimistic that the org/DOD made a strong/smart play. Please don’t make me a fool…
I hope I'm wrong
BUT….leopards rarely change their spots. The Rockies MO has always been to do the cheapest thing. Even when they do something I think was the right thing to do (like trading Holliday). So the pessimist in me is looking for “What is the cheapest move here?” And drafting a guy they can’t sign….is the cheapest. Saves money all around.
And that is why signing Matzek, would be HUGE in changing the image of the Rockies organization. It would be the best thing possible in terms of “We have a plan, and we have the resources to make that plan a working success.”
In general, I agree with you re the org/fo being cheap
that said, here it seems the typical Rox pick would have been a Reynolds/Weathers type move, basically overdrafting to save dough. While obviously “no contract” is cheaper than “cheap contract”, I think overall the organization is not flatly self-destructive such that they’d actually purposefully waste a pick.
But I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if you are right, and that’s a sad thing.
I'm the guy that had this conversation once
(with an old girlfriend) “I hate how you are so negative, and pessimistic. What I hate even MORE is that you are usually right!”
being pessimistic about this team
can save some heartache, for sure.
I wasn't going for copyright trampling
and I thought there was enough attribution, but either way, okay.
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
Huh?
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
rox girl made a comment at the end of the rockpile about not c/p text
befizzle seems to be owning up and apologizing.
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 11, 2009 9:51 AM MDT up reply actions
I don't mean to single you out,
And I do hope you’re not offended, it’s happened in the past, but just copying and pasting an article verbatim is verboten. Try and stay under thirty words when you quote an article. It would have worked much better as just a link in a FanShot, that’s what those are for.
Not at all. I wasn't quite sure the best way so,
good to know. :)
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
It's definitely an exciting read, however.
Friedrich’s value appreciating to ace status would almost make up for not signing Matzek should that happen. Not quite, I’d still be disappointed, but at least there’d be that consolation.
Well,
if Friedrich can make this early review stand-up, for me it helps with Matzek, and even the Gregs, though Smith may not deserve that expectation of success.
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
there's a link you can copy
right onto your bookmarks bar, and whenever you find an interesting article or story, you just click the link, and it turns it into a fanshot
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 11, 2009 10:25 AM MDT up reply actions
Küssen Verboten?
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 11, 2009 10:22 AM MDT up reply actions
Ich bin der Mann, der alles kann!
(Might be a different group)
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Jun 11, 2009 10:51 AM MDT up reply actions
Ist das nicht ein Schnitzelbank?
Listen, this signature line is a big part of who I am.
by frightened inmate #2 on Jun 11, 2009 11:05 AM MDT up reply actions
Du. Du hast. Du hast mich. Du hast mich gefragt, du hast mich gefragt...
du hast mich gefragt und ich hab nichts gesagt!
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Jun 11, 2009 11:24 AM MDT up reply actions
hey, could you guys get your hands on the right row?
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton
by pedalpusher on Jun 11, 2009 11:28 AM MDT up reply actions
I didn't realize Dex was batting behind EYJ in AA
Although it makes perfect sense, that’s how I’d have them up here as well
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
That's a depressing sextet of top bonuses in franchise history
Only Tulo has had a full successful season in the bigs so far.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 11, 2009 9:58 AM MDT reply actions
and the keyword is
A full successful season
Its not like he’s not big league material, cause he is. It’s just that with that big contract, he better start playing a little better.
by Rockie4Ever on Jun 11, 2009 10:01 AM MDT up reply actions
This seems to fit here
Just in case someone missed it, Jabbs pointed out yesterday evening that Keith Law believes Purke and Matzek are least likely to sign.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 11, 2009 10:03 AM MDT reply actions
Before anybody freaks out over that
Remember there’s a good bit of time between now and August 17th.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Jun 11, 2009 10:05 AM MDT up reply actions
I think their negotiations might be closely related
In the same way that Buster Posey and Yonder Alonso were last season, with rival agents trying to one up each other for the best deal for their client. I think if/when Purke signs that Matzek will likely follow closely with a similar deal worth just a little more or vice versa.
I kind of wondered this yesterday
How much does the potential signing hinge on the Rox moving salary? Hawpe seems most likely to be moved, I’d imagine if they can move Atkins, they’ll be eating some money. Spilly doesn’t make enough to really provide relief.
Listen, this signature line is a big part of who I am.
by frightened inmate #2 on Jun 11, 2009 10:35 AM MDT up reply actions
Here's the real theory....
O’dowd can read the future. Here we go.
He drafts Matzek at 11. He knows he won’t sign, they will offer big, make it public, and everyone will know the results. He will drop in next years draft, obviously because money is tight. Rox retain #11.
Rockies go to the WS again, tons of increased revenue.
Now we have the #11 pick after a WS, and increased revenue to spend on anyone. But, considering the events of the years previous draft, Matzek is still available, and drops to 11 again because of his money demands.
Its logical….
Not if he attends Oregon.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
I just like the part about going to the WS.
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton
by pedalpusher on Jun 11, 2009 10:41 AM MDT up reply actions
and then Friedrich
takes over as a legit ace and Francis makes a comeback and Holliday signs a deal with the Rox for less money because he misses Denver and the Red Sox take on Atkins’ entire contract and Chris Nelson/EY2 becomes our 2B next year…
I love optimism! What a difference a winning streak makes!
but ubaldo jimenez is a studmuffin already
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 11, 2009 11:22 AM MDT up reply actions
A win streak is nice.
Haven’t been on a game thread since the streak started i don’t believe so i’m staying away — no need to jinx things and ruin our ‘playoff run’.
See? Someone recognizes jinxes!
I mean, it’s one of the more extreme ones, typically It’s just like “BOY WOULDN’T IT SUCK IF HAWPE GIDP HERE”
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 11, 2009 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions
i've been in and out of game threads during the streak
it’s nice to know you don’t have any effect on the team. takes the pressure off.
Listen, this signature line is a big part of who I am.
by frightened inmate #2 on Jun 11, 2009 11:36 AM MDT up reply actions
Matzek...
I think my thinking is different here from everybody else. I think that even if the Rockies don’t have the money to sign Matzek in the end, it was a good risk. I’m not convinced that Matzek really wants to go to college and it would be financially foolish of him to turn down a multi-million dollar contract—even if it isn’t “precedent setting”—since he risks injury and/or loses three years of income. So I think the Rockies call his bluff—make him a generous, but not ‘break-the-bank ridiculous’ offer and see if he takes it. If not, you get the pick next year—plus you have two other first rounders this year. I like it and think it is a smart gamble—-and I’d do it again next year with whatever protected pick the Rockies have.
And there was a comment over at Renck's blog that made a lot of sense.
(I know, a DP commenter that made sense! Probably was someone here.)
Anyway, he pointed out how MLB is likely to try to fix the draft, put in a real slotting system for bonuses like the other drafts have. If they do that within the next three years, then Matzek would be better off signing now before things change. If he refuses to sign and instead goes to college, the system could very well be different the next time around.
I saw that comment too...
and I was like, this is actually a lucid point!
It’s like the possibility of an uncapped free agency year next year in the NFL…the system might be different (and even more to the advantage of the owners), so that adds quite a bit to the risk of uncertainty from Matzek’s POV.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Jun 11, 2009 12:39 PM MDT up reply actions
Major league contract
If a player signs a major league contract, they’re on the 40-man, for starters.
Is each year in the minors then considered an option year? Meaning that a draftee has 4 years before a team would be forced to add him to the active roster “for good” or risk losing himn while trying to outrigh him?
Basically, yes.
Each year a player on the 40 man active roster is placed on a minor league team, the club has used one of his three option years. This is if the Rockies do sign Matzek to a major league deal—probably saving big bucks on signing bonus but starting his organizational clock much sooner and forcing quick promotion through the system.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Jun 11, 2009 12:37 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't like this idea with a HS pick, even if he is the best out there.
He needs more time to adjust (although Lincecum didn’t).
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
Lincecum was a college pick
Porcello was a HS pick that it seems to have worked out okay for. I’m not sure if the Rockies will go this far for Matzek, but I wonder if there’s any other way to reel him in otherwise.
Sorry, my mistake
I got them reversed.
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
Curious
If Matzek was that interested in college, wouldn’t his talent be taking him to one of the PAC-10 powerhouses, like USC or ASU, rather than a program that has been dormant for a number of years?
Seems to me that with the OU situation and the potential that the draft process could look totally different in 3 years, Matzek would be willing to meet in the middle somewhere.
TGFPR!!
Oregon's head coach
is one of the nation’s best, George Horton.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
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