Friday Rockpile: Eight isn't enough, so the Rockies go for nine
by Russ Oates on Jun 12, 2009 7:31 AM MDT
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PrintEight's just great for Rockies - The Denver Post
"The huge thing lately is that the mood on the field has changed so much. Now we expect something to go right, not wrong," shortstop Troy Tulowitzki said. "You can feel it all the way into the stands. Their crowd expects something to go good for us and bad for them."
Bullpen now stoppers in tough situations - The Denver Post
Matt Daley has a line about the confusion that was the bullpen until recently, when guys didn't know their role out there. Also, Jason Hammel expects to receive his ALCS ring next week when the Rays visit Denver.
Rockies' surge isn't easy to explain - FOX Sports on MSN
Tracy Ringolsby latest work at Fox Sports looks at the Rockies' "surge."
Cooperstown Confidential: Dr. Strangeglove and Mr. Cooper -- The Hardball Times
Since we're on the subject of a nickname for Carlos Gonzalez, here's a piece on the nickname of "Dr. Strangelove."
Red culmination: Rockies pick Tyler Wallace to cap memorable Eaton career | Greeley Tribune
Here's a good article on the Rockies' selection of Tyler Wallace and Sterling Monfort.
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nicknames, indeed a lost art
probably on everyone’s part. Fan nicknames are often abbreviations…CarGo/CarGon, A- I-Rod, etc. Players’ nicknames for each other are usually just variations on their names.
I forget where I read it (was it here?), but I got a kick out of nicknames emerging for Pablo Sandoval—“Kung Fu Panda” and “Fat Ichiro.”
We've discussed this a bit while trying to stick Stewart and Smith with nicknames.
The best nicknames aren’t the ones that are variations of names or abbreviations. Such as Vinegar Bend Mizel or Dizzy Dean. A different era for sure but those type of nicknames had more pizzazz.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
Around here
I understand the tendency to go towards whatever is short. It takes too long to type “Vinegar Bend Mizel” in a game chatter (just using that nickname as an example), though I suppose it could be typed VBM. Then the nicknames tend to be very clubby, though (as one has to be part of the group to know what “VBM” stands for), though I suppose that could be desired in a game thread.
Why?
Is it that unusual to string together 8 in a row?
To me, the starting pitching has been one of the relative strengths pretty much all year. (Though Cook and to some extent Jimenez did get off to slow starts.) Quality starts isn’t the greatest stat, but it has some use in showing whether starting pitching is keeping teams in games. (Which in this era is ostensibly the case if you allow no more than 3 ER in 6 innings, given usual unearned run pcts and scoring averages.)
By that measure, the starters have been one of the relative strengths of the team. The past few years, the NL league average for QS’s has been about 48-49% of starts for the season. The last 3 teams to lead the league in percentage of QS’s turned in 59, 55, and 56%.
Here’s how the Rockies have done, dividing the season thus far into 3 chunks of 20 games apiece:
1st 20 games: 10 QS
2nd 20: 13 QS
3rd 20: 13 QS
Overall: 60%, 2nd in the NL to the Cubs at 63%, and as compared to the league avg of 49%.
I don’t have a split for bullpen ERA, but that would be interesting to see. It seems like it has really calmed down lately. Though, small sample size warning and all that. The starters going deep into games 8 times in a row probably helps here, too.
Naturally, with the pythag so far off prior to the winning streak, most statistical investigation into the pre-streak malaise tended to be a bit confounding. There was no obvious weakness, or rather, there were so many…something would be going wrong often enough in enough places that they could never get going for more than a couple games at a time.
Seems like it’s been a real team game this year—they’ve stunk as a team, and now they’re hot as a team.
The QS numbers are suprising
because the consensus around baseball is that our pitching is terrible, and we got off to a bad start. But using the QS metric, Dan O Dowd might have put together the best rotation of his tenure this year. And that is with Francis and Morales missing substantial time.
Can we give a little credit to the much-maligned Bob Apodaca here too?
Two guys in particular in that rotation – De La Rosa and Hammel – has really come a long way as the season has progressed. Cook and Jimenez had to battle through some mechanical faults and have gotten back on the horse. Marquis is arguably off to the best start of his career.
Since Apodaca gets pounded, I think a lot of the time unfairly, around here, I figured he deserves at least a portion of the credit for the work of this rotation.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
+1
Apodaca may not be the best pitching coach around, and while he has the use of the humidor, he has overseen most of the top staffs in this franchise’s history
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 12, 2009 9:54 AM MDT up reply actions
nope sorry you're all wrong
everybody sucks and Apodaca needs to be shot out of a cannon because he’s the problem too and the pitching iz all offal
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 12, 2009 9:55 AM MDT up reply actions
You know, I was thinking that exact thing this morning. And I for one have been giving him grief for quite a while.
The staff in general and the rotation in particular have improved significantly over the past few weeks. And since he’s the pitching coach, I’m assuming he’s at least partly responsible for it.
Makes you wonder why the staff under-performed previously. Did things just kick in? Was Hurdle an impediment to the staff? Whatever, Apodaca should get some props for the recent performance.
Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America. ~Bruce Catton
So far it's looking like we've got the best pitching staff in franchise history...
not just O’Dowd’s tenure. So far our pitching WAR (which I’ll explain next week) net of hitting is 7.2, which is quite frankly phenomenal (without hitting, it’s 8.4).
The starters alone are worth 7 WAR (5.7 net)! When you consider that last year’s staff produced 15.4 WAR net of hitting all season (and was the best staff I measured) it is quite possible that this will be the best staff we’ve ever seen out of Colorado.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Jun 12, 2009 10:03 AM MDT up reply actions
Link to our pitching WAR numbers:
Here.
That’s a value of $32.4 million we’ve gotten from the pitching staff this year, with Jimenez being worth a net 2.2 WAR already! In addition, Clint Barmes is now our most valuable position player with a 1.6 WAR.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Jun 12, 2009 10:06 AM MDT up reply actions
One more thing...
Garrett Atkins wRAA so far (-15.6) puts him on place to be well below replacement player by season’s end. As it is, replacing him with a league-average player would produce 1.2 wins.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Jun 12, 2009 10:08 AM MDT up reply actions
I would guess 1995 or 2000 is the best in franchise history
The runs/game are high, but the park factors were through the roof back then.
Those were good years... park adjusted ERA+ of 109 and 110 respectively.
The Rockies were second to the Braves in the NL in both years. 2007 may have been better, though, with an ERA+ of 111.
No, ROAD games skew....
the current Rockies pitching stats. Wait until we have played an equal number of home games as road games before declaring this the best Rockies pitching staff ever. As things stand now, it’s hard to tell given that 14 more games have been played on the road than at Coors Field.
Consensus around baseball
Perhaps among sports writers, or casually interviewed, anonymous team execs, the consensus is that the pitching is terrible. However, I suspect most members of front offices who are responsible for player evaluation understand park effects to the point where the consensus isn’t that the staff is terrible.
But I hear you about the bad start. Cook and Jimenez have rebounded nicely. ERA’s in May/June:
Cook: 2.84
Jimenez: 2.63
This is exactly the point
Good catch. It’s the people actually following who know that this team is better than just garbage. We have a team with 4 above average starters (according to tRA and pRAA) and Aaron Cook – and I don’t think tRA will ever like him, but we know what his strengths are.
It’s not fantabulous, but with a guy like Jimenez on top, this is a downright decent pitching rotation.
Everyone cries that the Rockies don’t have a LEGIT ACE™ and so therefore we’re clearly awful and suck and our pitching is a joke. But as PF and RG have pointed out so many times, our back end starters stack up very well against opposing back end starters.
This is us:
Starter ——————— tRA ——- pRAA
Cook, Aaron ————- 5.27 ——- (-4.9)
Jimenez, Ubaldo ——- 3.39 ——- 10.9
Marquis, Jason ——— 4.37 ——— 2.7
De La Rosa, Jorge —- 3.67 ——— 7.8
Hammel, Jason ——— 4.17 ——- 2.9
Total: 19 pRAA, or essentially 2 wins above a completely average pitching staff.
Now this is the supposed “Best pitching in the NL” or whatever:
Starter———————-tRA ——pRAA
Lincecum, Tim ——— 2.84 — 16.6
Johnson, Randy ——- 5.1 —— (-3)
Cain, Matt —————- 4.34 —- 2.8
Sanchez, Jonathan —- 4.87 — (-1.3)
Zito, Barry —————- 5.85 — (-9.3)
Total: -8.13 pRAA, or they’re almost a full win below an average pitching staff.
Remember how the Giants were supposed to be a team that would win like 82 games just because nobody could score on them?
Hm.
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 12, 2009 1:45 PM MDT up reply actions
Wow, Jorge
Performing above expectations. I didn’t realize how close his performance has been to Ubaldo’s until now.
How do you get -8.13 total for the Giants?
Is their bullpen really bad—cuz the starters have a 5.8 net pRAA
Eschew Obfuscation!
Whose numbers are you looking at
Because I’m buying into StatCorner pretty hard anymore
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 12, 2009 3:43 PM MDT up reply actions
excel might just be lying to me then
or something, I don’t know. Point is, Rockies pitching > Giants pitching
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 12, 2009 3:55 PM MDT up reply actions
Good inconsistency
Another great thing about the streak is that it’s broken a very annoying trend of consistency on the team’s part. They went 4-6 in each 10-game block of the season until the last 10. Their cumulative records were 4-6, then 8-12, 12-18, 16-24, and 20-30.
Some interesting Fangraphs articles
NL Rookie of the Year race The article completely omits Fowler but mentions Jordan Schafer, who played himself into AAA and a McLouth trade, as a possibility. Also, in the comments, some suggested Seth Smith, though I’m pretty sure he’s not a rookie. Apparently others out there think he needs more playing time too.
Also, MLB’s best fastball: Tim Wakefield? Seriously.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 12, 2009 8:55 AM MDT reply actions
I saw that too
Dex is sporting a nice healthy -10 UZR/150 so far and his bat is leaving a bit to be desired.
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 12, 2009 8:57 AM MDT up reply actions
Lack of candidates/games/data, etc.
Kind of a goofy discussion. Some in the thread were getting all mad about about Colby Rasmus not being crowned. No one’s having a great year (yet), a la Tulo and Braun in 2007. And yet, people are acting as if Rasmus is really going to be a +30 run fielder for the year (who knows maybe he will, but even the designer of UZR doesn’t believe in true talent +30 fielders), or that those statistical tools are so precise (esp given the small sample size) that differences within 10 runs are certain.
I think it’s clear we’ll just have to wait until later in the season to have a better idea. A single hot streak by someone could completely change the discussion at this point.
Problem is
that RZR correlates with the conclusion that Dex is below average. Interestingly enough, however, FRAA has him as right at average.
Fielding metrics aren’t complete yet, hence the disparity
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 12, 2009 9:56 AM MDT up reply actions
It's the same input
Fangraphs UZR uses data from baseball info solutions, as does RZR (at least as done on the Hardball Times site). The Fielding Bible stats, too, I believe. Though the method of turning this data into a plus/minus or a runs below/above average will differ.
MGL, the UZR creator, also runs it with Stats Inc data, or at least used to. I don’t know how the results vary.
FRAA isn’t pbp-based, so it’s quite another thing.
I don't really subscribe to much of BP's information anymore
I just use it as a comparison, reason being it’s all smoke and mirrors and voodoo, and you don’t know how they do everything.
I just prefer UZR and FRAA to RZR because you can translate it directly into production. RZR seems to be a good comparison stat to look at multiple fielders, but take it out of that context and it’s kind of abstract.
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 12, 2009 1:48 PM MDT up reply actions
Oh I know there's a lot of room to work with still
But fangraphs is suggesting that most of the negative is coming from lack of range. This surprised me, but maybe when he makes it look easy, if he was trying harder, he might make more near-impossible plays.
That or maybe we should look at him in LF and Gonzalez in CF.
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 12, 2009 10:42 AM MDT up reply actions
Hmm
I have a hard time thinking Dex has anything resembling lack of range. I just don’t see it. Sample size issues? And as for making him go to LF, he’s already making catches in LF as is…I’m so confused. Having a “gazelle’” in CF and a strong arm in the corner seems like the optimal setup to me
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 12, 2009 10:49 AM MDT up reply actions
I'm with you
I’m just going off of what the numbers tell me
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 12, 2009 10:54 AM MDT up reply actions
Defensive statistics are tough for me to wrap my head around
almost as much as value stats. True, I haven’t put a lot of time in to really research and understand them, but they just don’t support what I see. At all. Not that my feeble baseball eye is god, but I really have a hard time rationalizing Dex as having poor range.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 12, 2009 11:37 AM MDT up reply actions
Just like any scorekeeper
They’re subject to the recorder’s eye. It’s not just based on nothing at all or theory, it’s based on a grid-based field system, and where they start and where they make the play, or where they DON’T make the play, etc.
Dex makes a lot of huge plays, and that makes everyone say “Awesome Fielder right there” – and I’m not saying he’s not just based on that. It’s the boring plays that you might not appreciate because he didn’t dive or do something Willie Mays-esque (thank you CarGon) that really define how good of a fielder he is.
This is why I question the “eye” – not just yours, everyone’s – and want to rely on quantifiable things.
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 12, 2009 1:51 PM MDT up reply actions
Quantifying things
The simple fact that something was measured and quantified does not mean that it is automatically correct.
Defensive metrics are still too variable to be relied upon (though they do provide useful reference points).
I'm guessing SSS has a part to do with it.
Is taking his range score down quite a bit. He’s still only had just over 100 chances out there, it seems that a couple more or fewer catches could effect things by quite a bit.
It might also be a positioning thing, I think the Rockies have been playing several hitters wrong this season, but it hasn’t been as notable obviously in the win streak.
Fair point
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 12, 2009 1:51 PM MDT up reply actions
Me too. ("have a hard time thinking Dex has anything resembling lack of range")
Occasionally he misses a jump, but so do most people. At this point, I defer to the team’s development people and scouts on who should play CF. I assume they see something in Dex. He’s also in his first year, so there’s likely room for improvement as he learns the hitters and the parks around the league.
I hear the Angels are offering like everyone on their team in trade
At least they’re available.
What do you guys think, a catching tandem of Iannetta and Napoli? That’s a guaranteed 8 pitches per PA when the catcher’s spot comes up
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
I'm bitter towrds Napoli
He went from dark horse fantasy pick of the year for me to sucking the life out of my team. That would be a ridiculously powerful and talented tandem hitting wise. I think they were top two in wOBA last season among MLB catchers.
Or we could just start CDI with frequency suited to starting catchers and trade what could go to Napoli towards pitching…
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 12, 2009 9:01 AM MDT up reply actions
Wanted to briefly toot my own horn
and advertise the 2nd wallpaper I made for the Rockies (since the update may get lost in the fanpost shuffle). It’s -—> thataway. :)
"Admirably obsessive." - Uni Watch, March 24th, 2009
NA34 | HK | RMN
Another great Troy Renck writeup
He also coined a great phrase for a t-shirt: “Up With Purple!”
oo_nrb
that is fantastic. I mean, that is true art.
And I know this comes up pretty often, but the top links on espn.com/mlb are currently:
A bird getting hit by a baseball (pretty crazy, especially considering the circumstances)
One run games (ok, cool?)
Sox vs Yankees ( I don’t care if it’s a headline about A-Rod making gay porn with Big Papi, I still would not be interested in one goddamn thing these teams do anymore.)
Phillies/Mets ( See above. At least it’s NL.)
The Draft (Makes sense)
Pirates and Tigers (Both of which are endangered, most likely through sheer lack of fight or flight skills)
The Rockies get more shaft every year than Augusta and I’d like to be able to go somewhere other than PR to get news about them.
That being said, this website is the most comprehensive and honest place I have ever seen baseball discussed, so screw everyone else. I want PurpleRow and PurpleRow 2 channels on my box!
"If I can't live off $12-million, there are serious problems." -Larry Walker on Juan Gonzalez
I would have gone a different direction with the 'more shaft than' joke
because I am mentally 12 years old. But I learned in the game wrap yesterday that we’re not receptive to that kind of humor around here.
(Relax, I’m teasing you all! I kid because I love.)
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Jun 12, 2009 10:22 AM MDT up reply actions
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