Tuesday Rockpile: Jim Tracy loves Ubaldo, did O'Dowd beat Beane?
Jim Tracy knows that a winning staff needs an ace, but he doesn't think that ace must come in trade. He's already here. Tracy was Felipe Alou's bench coach in Montreal when Pedro Martinez began developing into a dominant pitcher, and he sees a striking similarity between Ubaldo and Pedro:
Manager Tracy loves what he sees of Jimenez - The Denver Post
"If and when he gets to that point, this guy is the dominant face of the staff and the foundation for stability of the entire rotation. His arm, how it works and how loose and free it is, it reminds me of a young Pedro Martinez."
Jimenez returns to site of crossroads | ColoradoRockies.com: News
Thomas Harding points out that Houston was where Ubaldo reached the end of ineffectiveness and started to find consistency last season.
Inside the Colorado Rockies " Easy Inning For Daley
Matt Daley threw one inning of scoreless relief last night in Colorado Springs. In fact, it was practically perfect. Daley struck out all three batters he faced - Brad Nelson, Chris Woodward and Adam Moore - on 15 pitches, 12 strikes.
Inside the Colorado Rockies " Quick Hits
Jack Etkin filled out his customary quick statistic hits after last night's game. The only positives came from Clint Barmes, Yorvit Torrealba and Josh Fogg. Stars of the team right there.
Two Months In: Oakland Athletics | FanGraphs Baseball
Billy Beane traded for Matt Holliday in a surprise move to build up the anemic offense he had grown. It has failed miserably, as the additions of Holliday, Jason Giambi, Nomar Garciaparra and Orlando Cabrera still find the Athletics with MLB's worst offense, with a 5.55% chance of making the playoffs via PECOTA. As RockiesMagicNumber noted in yesterday's Rockpile, Street is quietly pushing himself towards worthy All-Star consideration while Matt Holliday still has yet to show Athletics fans the dramatic bat we got used to.
And oh, by the way, Carlos Gonzalez hit his 10th HR last night. He is now hitting .348/.429/.652, good for 6th in the PCL in average, 7th in HR, and 1st in RBI. Matthew Carruth notes that Oakland is most likely going to have to trade Holliday by the deadline, but that "it just as certainly going to be far less than Billy Beane hoped three months ago." He won't even get back what he traded to us.
Buster Olney: For Matt Holliday and others, free agency looks bleak - ESPN
Buster Olney suggests that Matt Holliday indeed cannot survive outside of Coors Field, as evidenced by past home/road splits and his disappointing year so far. Most interesting to note is Olney's speculation on the contract Holliday may receive as a free agent this offseason:
With a strong season, Holliday might have been in position to get something in the area of six years and $100 million, but right now, he might be looking at something for three years and $30 million to $35 million.
Seems like that contract Dan O'Dowd offered a million years ago 15 months ago doesn't look so bad now.
Doctor pleads guilty to federal steroid charges - ESPN
The doctor reportedly supplied Cardinal Troy Glaus and Diamondback Scott Schoeneweis.
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Manager Jim Tracy says
“I sure do love the best pitcher on our staff”
Tracy further commented,
“He’s really good but he has to get better before he’s really there”
Tracy was later interviewed and revealed:
“The sky is blue and Houston is more humid than Denver. Baseballs are round.”
When asked about how he plans to turn this Rockies ship around,
“They need to hustle more and play good, winning baseball”
Hall of Fame commentator Joe Morgan was cited as saying about Jim Tracy,
“A very insightful man. Good grasp on the deeper and more intricate aspects of baseball and life itself.”
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
Holliday
I think everyone needs to slow down on the Holliday is worthless campaign. I’m not saying on this blog, but just in general. I can’t believe how quickly everyone rushes to judgement on these things. The season is not even 1/3 of the way through. Holliday is hitting over .270 and hit his 7th HR last night, and took one away by the way. He could very easily still hit over .300 and if he hits 25-30 HR’s hitting in a pitcher friendly park he would still look good in free agency. I’m not sure he will get the monster contract he expected, but thats due to the economy more than anything.
Also I still like the trade. Gonzalez is really coming on strong and I can’t wait to see him get that promotion. Street is pitching very well for us, and Smith is helping us out by not being in our rotation. I think O’Dowd made the right call on this, but I still think Holliday is going to finish strong. He just hit .291 for May and he is starting to find his groove, it takes a little bit after switching leagues sometimes.
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
I'm with you 100% on this
While I may badmouth him a bit around here, it’s all just sour grapes for us here, or so it’d seem. I publicly defend him, but you gotta agree that the way he batted the first 6 weeks of the season didn’t do him any favors.
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 8:42 AM MDT up reply actions
I know, he started very poorly
so I think everyone thought he was going to regret wanting to go to free agency. I am actually pulling for him, because I still like him and miss him, but also because I would love to hear people stop bad mouthing Coors Field and the offensive numbers. It would be nice to see a few of our hitters get some credit and not hear every positive ended w/ the statement, “but you have to be careful with using those numbers since he does play half his game in the hitter friendly Coors Field.”
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
yep, once again, 100%
^5
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 9:21 AM MDT up reply actions
Coors Field affect/effect
I agree on the “but you have to be careful with using those numbers since he does play half his game in the hitter friendly Coors Field” statement. It totally dismisses the fact that the hitters also have to go on the road where they have to adjust again, and again, to different breaks at sea level vs elevation.
OH..and do you ever hear ANY credit to the pitchers? any well, he pitches half his games at Coors Field so his numbers are misleading? NO.
Thats the attitude that bothers me more than anything
is that they will discount our hitters, but our pitchers don’t get the extra nod. I have to agree w/ you completely on that. I say that to myself all the time when they make those comments.
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
It's strange that this is the first place I've found people to share that sentiment
It’s also strange that pitchers like Jake Peavy haven’t been given the Petco treatment as much as Holliday got the Coors treatment. Peavy’s splits were just as wide, and Petco is pretty much THE pitcher’s park, while Coors is only one of the better hitter’s parks.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 9:35 AM MDT up reply actions
this is where I get all persecuted and martyred
because we’re the ignored team because EEST COAS BYUSSSSS
but yeah, it’s crap.
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 9:37 AM MDT up reply actions
It bugs me too.
I never got why the “omg, he hits at coors field so of course his numbers are superinflated” wasn’t applied to pitchers: “Well he’s pitching at coors field so of course he’s loads better than his numbers show.”
The truth of it is that a good hitter will be a good hitter no matter where they are. A good pitcher will be a good pitcher no matter what. I think people give too much credit to the ball park.
THANK YOU
My friends and wife think I’m crazy because this exact issue always riles me up, especially our pitchers not getting enough credit, but ESPECIALLY Peavy getting too much credit. Plus, the park effect is more drastic with Coors because the Rox play a ton of games in LA, Petco, and SF, where balls go to die.
Look at Peavy's career Home/Away splits
I’m not saying he’s not good. He IS inflated, however.
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 9:55 AM MDT up reply actions
deflated?
Listen, this signature line is a big part of who I am.
by frightened inmate #2 on Jun 2, 2009 9:56 AM MDT up reply actions
....
the one that means bad on road
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 9:58 AM MDT up reply actions
<but you gotta agree that the way he batted the first 6 weeks of the season didn’t do him any favors.
>
The way he hit the first 6 months didn’t do any future Rockies free agent any favors, either. This might work in our advantage.
I do agree that his trade value will be pretty low. The knock is going to be “put him in a new park, and he’s a slow starter.” Not exactly what a team looking for a 3 month rental wants to hear.
Listen, this signature line is a big part of who I am.
by frightened inmate #2 on Jun 2, 2009 9:04 AM MDT up reply actions
6 weeks
Listen, this signature line is a big part of who I am.
by frightened inmate #2 on Jun 2, 2009 9:05 AM MDT up reply actions
Changing leagues
Changing leagues is a bit different than just changing parks, too. Certainly the AL pitchers made sure they have watched film on Holliday – but on the flip side, Holliday has to learn 100+ new pitchers. Had he simply moved to AZ, the adjustment would have been much smaller for him.
Also, why are people surprised by the slow April? His career April OPS is .850, compared to .930 overall. Sure, this year the numbers were worse than usual (not surprising, with the other factors), but he has always been a slow starter. A 1.000+ April OPS would have been a marked departure from his typical method of stat building.
Career splits:
March/April: .850
May: .924
June: .952
July: .992
August: .891
Sept/Oct: 1.000
Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer
Holliday
April OPS: .648
May OPS: .872
June OPS: 2.000
(yes, I’m just yanking your chain with the small June sample size)
He dug himself a hole early in the season, and is climbing out. His road OPS is .851. The sky isn’t falling.
Maybe we could do a sign-and-trade and get him cheap :)
Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer
I don't want to sound like a Denver Post poster
BUT…..I always like Holliday. The Rockies have plenty of OF’s and don’t need another one, but I’d love for Matt to come back to Coors Field if the price was right.
I’d also love to date a super model, and have a bajillion dollars too.
on a scale of 1-10
what are the real chances of us signing him back?
3 yrs/30 mill sounds like something we could do. I would love to dust of by Holliday jersey and go back to Coors.
by cocainelips99 on Jun 2, 2009 9:41 AM MDT up reply actions
I'm in
I’ll contribute a dollar toward his contract. We just need 29 million more fans to do the same :)
Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer
I really don't see it happening...I say 2
We would have to get rid of two of Hawpe, Spilborghs and Smith, and with a payday coming for Iannetta, I’m not sure the funds are there to spend on a surplus position. Could be wrong
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 9:49 AM MDT up reply actions
That would be absolutely hilarious
if we had a starting OF with CarGo AND Holliday, with Street closing.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 9:57 AM MDT up reply actions
we'll give them back Greg Smith
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 9:59 AM MDT up reply actions
I want to see what he can do
when he’s not battling through three injures and two severe illnesses.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 10:00 AM MDT up reply actions
My prediction:
Worse than Hammel
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 10:08 AM MDT up reply actions
Probably so
Still worth a look
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 10:13 AM MDT up reply actions
He doesn't have much upside
but he could definitely be better than a #6…iirc, he had a better WHIP than any Rockies starter last year except Cook.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 10:16 AM MDT up reply actions
and an unsustainable BABIP
and played in a pitcher’s park
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 10:26 AM MDT up reply actions
Perfectly valid
I was never completely sold on him, despite wanting him to be the #5 starter out of the gate. I still don’t want to give up on him without seeing what he can do. Players can improve after a rookie year ;-)
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 10:28 AM MDT up reply actions
oh I agree
I feel that Hirsh could outperform him at this point, and if Morales is healthy after his next couple of rehab starts, Smith becomes irrelevant
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 10:33 AM MDT up reply actions
How very sad for him
Maybe he’ll be our Rusch instead
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 11:05 AM MDT up reply actions
There's no way, 1
If he’s having trouble getting the BIG CONTRACT because he’s still being haunted by Coors splits, you think he’s gonna want to come back to Coors? That move would make no sense for him.
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 9:57 AM MDT up reply actions
He's going to have to take what he can get
And if that’s a 3yr-$30mil deal, that’s what he gets. And then he’ll be 32 when he’s up for his next one…which might make teams shy away from a big contract then
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 10:00 AM MDT up reply actions
Almost zero percent
If the club goes with CarGo/Fowler/Hawpe, where would you play Holliday?
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
neither
Cargo, Hawpe, Smith are all cheaper and the dropoff isn’t so monstrous that you’d hate yourself for not
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 2:59 PM MDT up reply actions
Back on Smith again?
I think you would have to be smoking crack to think that Smith is even in the same solar system as holliday.
CarGo…Holliday?
CarGo…Holliday?
CarGo…Holliday?
ummm….Holliday.
by cocainelips99 on Jun 2, 2009 3:02 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't know... CarGo and Smith do obviously have some talent
granted, Holliday being back would bring about 10 billion fans that left when he did, bringing in extra trillions of dollars that would either A.) Bring us even more better/more famous players getting us to win our first World Series, or B.) Line the Monforts pockets.
Hmm. who has a coin we can flip?
Check in tomorrow to see why Smith is so underrated
Holliday definitely has proven more longterm with a full-time role, but Holliday < CarGo + Smith + whoever else gets that money
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 4:04 PM MDT up reply actions
yeah don't talk it up THAT much
Holliday is still > Smith
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 4:36 PM MDT up reply actions
and beside I didn't even want to talk about the comparison
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 4:50 PM MDT up reply actions
No one said Smith is better than Holliday
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 5:21 PM MDT up reply actions
You act as if you've proven that Smith is terrible or something
Smith is a solid player and has improved his game every season he’s played.
Yes, Holliday > Smith, I’m not stupid.
I’ll thank you to not make personal attacks.
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 4:35 PM MDT up reply actions
I'm not sure anyone is saying Holliday is worthless
Especially here. He’s absolutely an elite talent, but there are three things that are becoming incredibly likely: The A’s will get less out of Holliday than what they paid for, the Rockies seem to have gotten the better end of the deal, and Holliday would be richer had he taken O’Dowd’s offer last March. Those are the main points of interest to me, as all are inverses to conventional thought at the time of their inception.
I always hated the home/road argument. Holliday had just as good of road numbers as Rollins in 2007 if not better, but his home numbers were still significantly better. He did have a large split, but even his road numbers overall would have been better. And as many have pointed out, if the Coors Effect still exists, so too does the lack of Coors Effect once hitting the road
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 9:31 AM MDT up reply actions
Road OPS
Yeah, because Rollins’ park is so pitcher friendly. /sarcasm
Holliday’s road OPS has jumped each year of his career – they were .800+ in 2006-2008. I loved seeing people quote the 2004 and 2005 numbers … because, yeah, a hitter in his prime is likely to regress like that :)
One thing that people often ignore is that fact that all hitters, overall, hit 30 OPS higher at home than on the road. i.e. a guy who is a .800 OPS guy would be expected to post a .815/.785 home/road split. So before even talking about Coors hangover (which I believe does exist) you at least need to remove 30 points from the split. You can just take a hitter’s road OPS and say that it is his “neutral park” projected OPS – because it isn’t.
Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer
Precisely
That’s not true in extreme cases like A-Gone, but in general, yeah. It is for pitchers too.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 9:51 AM MDT up reply actions
Adrian Gonzalez is so good
Just…so good. I love that guy.
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 9:59 AM MDT up reply actions
3/30-35 seems very unlikely
I think it’s very unlikely. Where did Olney get that number? The Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Angels will all need corner OF’s.
That number is the low end
assuming Holliday does not improve the rest of the season, at which point, is productivity outside of Coors would be squarely in question. I don’t know the FA crop of OFs this season, but I’m sure that assumes he won’t be the top of that list if he continues his production.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 10:18 AM MDT up reply actions
He has been improving
Well, sure, if he doesn’t improve the rest of the season, teams will have questions. However, he already is improving; Olney even notes it.
I think he’ s another Johnny Damon, who landed in Oakland in his walk year and slumped to a .256 avg. He went on to sign a 4 yr $32 deal.
The other big names ((from Cots) include:
Rick Ankiel (interesting, yet his 2007 and 2008 with the bat are only equal to Holliday’s 2009 so far)
Jason Bay (inferior fielder to Holliday, but obviously a solid hitter)
Carl Crawford (if his option isn’t picked up)
36-yr old, declining Magglio Ordonez (I’m assuming the Tigers will decline his option)
35-yr old, hobbled Vlad Guerrero
ossified Hideki Matsui
I think that, and the economy, are enough to drag his price down from those starry eyed numbers Boras must have had a couple years ago. But he’ll still be the best OF available. If someone signs him for 3/35, it will be a steal.
I know he is improving
I just infer from Olney that his contract projection is based on a linear projection of his stats from what they are today, with no weights on recent improvements. Unfair, but simple. Good comparison with Damon.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 10:45 AM MDT up reply actions
I've never understood the comment, "If and when" as in....
….“If and when he gets to that point,”. Which is it? If or when?
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton
Yeah...technically should be "or"
But then that doesn’t exactly exude confidence.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 9:33 AM MDT up reply actions
Park factors
They’re old, 20-30 yrs old. That helps to evaluate players’ contributions given odd parks like Coors or Petco.
The thing that tired me out about Holliday (not on this site) is the assumption that to find the “true talent” level of any Rockies player, that is, what the player would do in a neutral park, is to take the road stats and pro-rate for a full year’s worth of PA’s. Ugh.
Some players are helped/hurt disproportionately by their park, but finding a “true talent” level is more complicated than just looking at road splits.
Holliday will be the first big player to leave since the humidor has apparently lowered the Coors’ field park factor (it used to be in the 120’s, now it’s more like 105-107). But in the old days, the performance of players who left was pretty much on par with their Rockies’ performance, one park adjustments are taken into consideration. Galarraga, Burks, Bichette. Vinny’s performance dropped off, but that had already started in Colorado with his 1999 season.
Oh but you have others
Preston Wilson, Jeromy Burnitz, Jeffrey Hammonds, Jay Payton, Jeff Cirillo….
It probably didn’t help that Castilla came back to Coors and suddenly had an amazing season after leaving and becoming somewhat average.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 10:15 AM MDT up reply actions
Ok
but are they anywhere near Holliday’s level of ability, and with his track record (multi-year tenure in Colorado)?
Wilson had a bad knee, and had put up OPS+ of 113, 73, and 100 with Colorado. Burnitz was 36 the year after he left. Castilla’s amazing season was worth an OPS+ of 109, and low OBP guys like Wilson and Castilla look better under OPS+ than they do with less quick-and-dirty stats (like park adjusted wOBA or EQA). When park-adjusted, Hammonds’ CO season looks in line with his previous 3; was the falloff due to Coors or him being injury-prone?
Somehow missed the PF being included
But that’s still a different way to say Coors Field gives a distinct advantage. Regardless of reasons, guys like Wilson and Hammonds and Payton that bust out in Colorado perpetuate the impression that Coors is a launchpad, and the national impression is what truly carries it.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 10:27 AM MDT up reply actions
For the average sportswriter and fan perhaps
I think plenty of teams, if not all, have a decent understanding of park factors.
ESPN lays them out pretty clearly
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 10:42 AM MDT up reply actions
You'd be amazed
at the misunderstanding, though. People will see the PF’s, but still say “so and so had a .750 OPS on the road” and assume .750 is what the player would do in a neutral park.
well it's obviously not a neutral park
But it averages out to be relatively close to one as far as the league is concerned
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 10:58 AM MDT up reply actions
Hey guys
How come in 2001 Progressive field was the top hitter’s park, and in 2009 it’s the 2nd-top pitcher’s park?
Sample size
Park factors are calculated by empirical data, and while 81 games seems like a lot it takes more than one season to perfectly hone it. Check out Chase Field in 2002, 2003, and this year.
Those 2002 D-Backs got 47 wins from Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling alone, 98 for the year, and they were 29 games above .500 at home. That may skew it.
BABIP can make a player’s stats change dramatically year to year, yet his skill level may not have changed. It’s sort of that way with park factors. It just takes many years before you reach any longterm confidence
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 11:04 AM MDT up reply actions
ESPN park factors
I remember there being something slightly questionable about the way ESPN calculates. Maybe it assumes that everyone has the same mix of parks on the road (which, with the unbalanced schedule, isn’t true)? I might not be describing the problem very well. Or maybe it’s something else.
They’re a good baseline, though. I use them frequently.
Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer
Clarify
To clarify this a bit:
If the Rockies and Padres played 162 games against each other (splitting home and away), the way that ESPN calculates the factors would result in a monstrous hitter factor for Coors and a monstrous pitcher factor for Petco (because the road games for us would be in Petco and the road games for them would be in Coors).
This obviously isn’t a real life example, but the fact remains that there is an unbalanced schedule (twice as many games against a team in your division vs. teams outside your division), and the proportion of road games that you play in pitchers’ parks vs. hitters’ parks affects your own park’s factor.
There really needs to be a divisor used to weigh the road parks equally, rather than the current system that gives heavier weight to parks within your own division.
Essentially, if you play in a division where all the other teams have extreme hitter’s park, your ESPN park factor is going to make your park appear to be a pitcher’s park, and if your division is filled with pitcher’s parks, your park will appear to be a hitter’s park … when in actually, your park might be completely neutral.
Does that make any sense?
Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer
Makes sense to me
and seems like a simple change. Scale the data from each road park to a single number relative to the number of games played there, so each park has equal weight.
Is this calculation done with raw data, or after iterations? If it is raw data, there would be sample size issues with equally weighting parks, especially if we somehow scored 30 runs in a series at Oakland.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 3, 2009 10:15 AM MDT up reply actions
Raw
Yeah, raw I think.
Sample size could definitely be an issue, although not a monstrously huge one. The minimum games you’d play in a road park is 3 and the max is 9, right? So it’s not as if we’d play 3 games @ OAK and 25 @ SD. You’re working with relatively small samples, so it’s always going to be a bit of an issue.
I feel that there should be a straightforward way around this problem (albeit with busywork) but it’s eluding me for the moment. Or maybe I’m just wrong – I wasn’t a statistics major :)
The real issue I have with the ESPN one is that there is a clear bias built into the model that exists regardless of sample size. Create a division with 4 bandboxes and one neutral park, and the neutral park is going to looking like a dramatic pitcher’s park, even if you track it over a 20 year span.
Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer
I should hope teams understand park factors
I suppose I was more concerned with public perception in my statements
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 10:47 AM MDT up reply actions
My bad
I’m slightly concerned we won’t get fair value in trades due to misinformed management of other teams, but not really. Holliday was a whipping boy for the Coors Effect, and we got a decent haul for him. I just hate that any national broadcast or discussion of a Rockie hitter must involve the words humidor and/or launching pad.
The Crawfish Boxes even tried to explain away Helton’s home run last night as being a Coors Field phenomenon, even though the game was in Houston.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 10:55 AM MDT up reply actions
It's magic coors field pixie dust
sprinkle some over your head and the Coors Field effect takes place..
doesn’t explain why it only works on Todd Helton though…
watch out for the potted plants...
THIS is a huge issue for me
Road splits.
I’ve watched the Rockies enough to know that the first 2 games of any road trip, The Rockies will not hit. I don’t care if the pitcher is Oswalt, or some scrub just up from AA. And the names on the Rockies don’t matter either. It’s happened since the Blake St. Bombers through the Kit Pellow/Royce Clayton scrubs to Gen R.
THERE IS SOMETHING GOING ON HERE. It take awhile to adjust. Breaking balls break more, and thus their time from pitcher hand to plate is longer. Slightly, and maybe fractions of seconds, but that difference is huge on a major league level. Not to mention the physical changes on a body going from elevation to sea level.
And this is never, ever mentioned. In fact I think this factor is HUGE one for the organization. Like the humidor big.
Yes...
This is the other thing beside just adjusting for park on seasonal stats—the “Coors Field effect.” I could have sworn someone has actually documented evidence for it, but I can’t remember where I saw it.
I believe
Heltonfan from the Fanhome boards did some work on this. Not sure where to find anything on it but Its known over there as the “Hangover” effect. Its real, and in some cases it can be used to show that our players are actually better then what their numbers indicate because of the Hangover effect, though not so much anymore since the Humidor days.
There was a fan shot awhile ago
About this and Matt Holliday found here: http://www.purplerow.com/2009/1/24/735756/interesting-tidbit-about-r
Here's to hoping Francis has a speedy recovery...
Nevermind
It looks like the article has been moved
Here's to hoping Francis has a speedy recovery...
I found it, and others:
It just moved. Here’s the Baybridge Baseball article I think you meant. Also, there’s a sequel, with links to:
—A typically snarky BPro article from 2000, which did not find a hangover effect.
—A Dave Pinto, Baseball Musings post on the Baybridge article article.
Hey if you guys
really want to understand why there’s a bias against Coors field hitters just look at the first comment for this post by RMN. It’s that type of rationale – shallow and shortsighted that perpetuates all this. Gonna be a long time until Coors hitters get respect
Steroid's Doctor
every time I read a case about steroids in baseball, I’m so, so disappointed that no Rockies are named.
If ya ain’t cheatin you ain’t tryin
Maybe we're just better at covering our butts
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 11:18 AM MDT up reply actions
I'm assuming the Rockies aren't using
I’d hate to think that their performance the last 2 years was while they were ON steroids.
Where is Barry Bonds when we need him?
Touche
He’d probably be about as effective defensively at third as Atkins
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 11:37 AM MDT up reply actions
I just don't get all the ragging on Atkins' defense.
Granted he doesn’t have the range that Stewie does, but the balls he fields are for the most part clean and he has a strong arm. He does a decent job of fielding bunts and making the throws.
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton
He doesn't just have less range that Stewart, he has less than most
This suggests he’s worse than all but one 3B since 2006 overall defensively. Fangraphs has him 4th from the bottom this year, beating out a transplant from an different position, a rookie bopper and an old man with leg issues.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 12:11 PM MDT up reply actions
Doesn't Fangraphs include the hitting as well?
If so, no wonder he’s at the bottom. Is there a rating that deals only with defensive aspects?
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton
UZR
When you’re comparing players, go to the “value” section and sort by fielding
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 5:50 PM MDT up reply actions
thanks.
How is UZR calculated?
Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?
Author: Jim Bouton
Yes it does
I sorted the fielding, and that’s where he’s 4th from bottom. He’s worst in overall.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 9:58 PM MDT up reply actions
I would love to see Bonds with this team
Not really, but I’d just love to see the FO do more things
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 2, 2009 12:19 PM MDT up reply actions
Dude
spent the weekend in OKC (daughter in womens world series tourney). Went to Bricktown Park Sat night and loved it. Nice town too.
by PinchHitLancePainter on Jun 2, 2009 4:39 PM MDT up reply actions
rockies theatre of the absurd
While I’ve appreciated Tracy’s initial post game interviews so far being more candid and less ‘jerky’ (refraining from using more appropriate word) than Hurdle, last night my ears perked up when I heard some lines right out of Hurdlespeak. Particularly the “we hit a lot of hard balls right at em and that’s just going to change at some point” —think I heard Hurdle start repeating this mantra around the second week of the season!
Ringolsby made a quiet smart refutation of this cliche by saying (in short)…“If the pitcher hits his spot, the defense is set in position to make the play.” This means the onus falls on the hitter…there’s a reason why a (good) hitter is checking out where the defense is set before every pitch; it gives him a good idea how they are going to try and pitch him and what they are willing to give him. And this isn’t football where they can give you different schemes to try and confuse the hitter, generally the defense is set and not running around to try and confuse the hitter. It’s why everyone says Helton is such a smart hitter — I love it when he checks out the defense, figures out how they are going to pitch to him, where the holes are and drives one right into the spot. Of course, if the hitter figures out all of the above, has a good at-bat and still hits it right where they wanted him too – well, then the pitcher won the at-bat.
Amongst the many issues the rox hitters have suffered from this (last) season, it’s their failure to make these adjustments at the plate, be it at home or away. It also falls under the ‘team baseball’ umbrella Hurdle/Tracy have gone on about, if a couple hitters have smart at-bats and get a couple of singles/walks and then the next guy comes up and wildly hacks at the first pitch getting a GIDP/flyout it is really a deflating experience (for the fans and other players). Obviously, Tracy is/comes off as a smart baseball guy, so he’s trying to encourage his players publicly but my guess is this discussion takes place (too often) inside the clubhouse/office.
Anyways, this is a long ramble to say current Coors hitters may also not be getting respect because they have a reputation for being undisciplined and ‘little leaguish’ at the plate (as one Padres coach noted).
watch out for the potted plants...
Strength of Schedule
Sky Kalkman at BtB calculated it, and we’re about average. Earth-shattering, I know.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 2, 2009 2:40 PM MDT reply actions

















