The past 28 days: Sample Size? We don’t need no stinking Sample Size!
Caught up in excitement of a lot of winning, we've had mostly heroics. It's been a team game the past 28 days, and here's where the Rockies stack up:
The Rockies are 1st in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS. - .285/.362/.477/.838
They are 5th in terms of IsoD, or basically patience, behind Washington, San Diego, Milwaukee, and Cincinnati. - .077
They are 1st in IsoP, or how hard they hit the ball on average - .192.
They are 4th in SBs, behind the Dodgers, Mets, and Dbacks - 18.
They are 2nd in homers behind the Phillies - 33.
They are 2nd to last in GDPs (in the good way), with only Philly with less - 14
They are leading the league in BBs - 101
However, they are also leading the league in BABIP, at .321, compared to a league average of .293
So what do we draw out of this? Click past the jump and we'll take a look.
Also check out this spreadsheet if you'd care to take a look at what the whole crew is up to:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rDrR5jMVWjorV5RiApqasxg
Well, they're clearly hitting the ball well, and waiting for their pitches. That team slash line is the kind of line you'd want to see out of any good ballplayer on your team. A .838 OPS player would be a starter on any team in baseball. The downside is that that high BABIP would suggest that they are batting at a higher average than you'd expect, and suggests they're due to cool down.
The biggest individual offenders in this regard are Seth Smith (.424), Brad Hawpe (.406), and Clint Barmes (.390). Out of these 3, this is going to hurt Barmes most, which we're all pretty aware of, as his plate discipline is rarely existant. His IsoD is at .018, suggesting that if he doesn't hit it, it's an out. As it stand, Barmes' .884 OPS is being mostly driven by slugging. As Hawpe and Smith have much better plate discipline in general, it won't completely sap their high OPS once their BABIP returns to normal levels.
What is good to see is that the team's OBP is at a healthy .362, leaps and bounds above the competition, and even with a normalized BABIP, it probably wouldn't drop too terribly low. We have a top-notch offense, and there's really no denying it anymore. Also, with the high BABIP, the fact that we've grounded into so few DPs tells us that we're not making terrible contact with as many pitches, in terms of rolling one right to the SS.
Outside of Hawpe, the OF has been offensively disappointing, at least in terms of Gonzalez, and somewhat Fowler, but these two are their own discussion entirely.
The real superstud on the team the past 28 days hasn't been who you'd expect. Granted, Hawpe is OPS'ing 1.013, but Troy Tulowitzki had dialed up his game, batting to the tune of .353/.447/.750 with a team-leading 7 dingers. What's more impressive is the fact that he's doing it all with a .340 BABIP, suggesting that while his numbers should come down, they won't drop TOO far when they do drop. Granted, I don't see Tulo averaging more than a double every time he gets a hit, but at the same time, I wouldn't be terribly shocked to see a .320/.410/.520 line out of him once he cools down a bit.
So what am I getting at here? Well, basically that the team is awesome. Sustainably awesome? Well, probably not at the head-and-shoulders level we've been batting above the rest of the NL. Some has been luck, and some has been players just stepping up their games.
How should we feel?
Proud.
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No pitching analysis?
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
Thanks for the stats
esp. BABIP. Evidence that Barmes’ hot streak was unsustainable; I think he’s entering the ice age now. (I still don’t see another alternative at 2nd, though.)
Profound comment of the day
Now that we’ve put ourselves in a good situation – we won’t win 90% of the games butttt if we win 60% of our remaining 91 games, we finish with 92~ wins. The streak? Unsustainable. Winning 60% of the remaining games? I think we have a shot.
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
Also
is it time we Cargon back down and play Fowler Hawpe and Smith full time? Lastly, what’s the backup plan if and most likely when Barmes comes back down to earth? Would batting Tulo second and Barmes 8th offset a dropoff by Barmes?
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
NO NO NO
Whether some of you like it or not 50 ABs is not a fair amount to determine whether he can or can’t hit. First while he did play last year it was a different league different pitchers etc. No different than say Holliday going to the AL. AAA does nothing for him he has proven beyond a doubt he can play at that level. He is 23 plays great defense and needs 250-300 ABs before you mak any serious decisions.
You can’t hit Barmes 8th he has proven he can’t hit there. while 2 foe 20 is a slump I don’t change any thing until the LA series and the I might move Tulo to the 2 spot Barmes 6th and Cargo 8th.
Barmes 6th isn't a bad option
just because he’s a good SLG guy and not so good as a OBP guy
Managers figure because the guy has wheels (well he’s at least a smart baserunner), they should bat him in the OBP spots. Granted, he’s hitting well there, but someone else would more than likely be more productive for the later-order spots.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: Badass
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 24, 2009 2:20 PM MDT up reply actions
Agree with all of this
Also, speaking of wheels. If Tulo bats second, we gotta make sure someone teaches him how to jack a bag properly. Guy’s what? 9 for 15? Not too hot.
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
BABIP issues
What’s the average BABIP for games in Coors the past few years? I’m pretty sure it’s higher than the league avg as a whole.
and even with a normalized BABIP
As a team, they’re currently at .298 for the season. In 2006-2008 they were .310, .322, .308 as as team. It’s possible the little hot streak was the regression to the mean, so to speak (and also perhaps reflective of catching up in the # of home games played). So, as you conclude, we wouldn’t expect them to hit for the rest of the season as they have in 28 days which include a 17 of 19 run, but there’s reason to believe that the team as a whole can perform at the level of their current overall #‘s, or perhaps a little higher. And that’s pretty good.
Also, re. Barmes: his overall BABIP is at .326. It’s .295 career, but it was.328 last year. It is possible for hitters to post a BABIP above the league avg (though not likely .390, as Magic# notes). We know Barmes isn’t a .330 or a .400 hitter, but he could be a .280 hitter, and that’s also pretty good. Or at least, it’ll do.
Free Seth Smith!
absolutely on Barmes
I’m just saying he’s due to collapse a bit, and hopefully it won’t be a violent drop below the line
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: Badass
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 24, 2009 2:43 PM MDT up reply actions
And ATVs
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 24, 2009 3:07 PM MDT up reply actions
Or teach him to drive one
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
Ok I'm going to say it
Tulo needs to goto the All Star game. He has the seconed most homeruns in the major leagues by a Shortstop, and while he struggled in the early season, his numbers are very good right now.
Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg
He is kind of sneaking up
I wouldn’t be surprised if Rollins gets on there somehow, despite his very bad season. Tulo is 3rd among qualifying SSs in wOBA in the NL.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 24, 2009 3:09 PM MDT up reply actions
hanram is so good
terrible things
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: Badass
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 24, 2009 3:10 PM MDT up reply actions
Also
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 24, 2009 3:10 PM MDT up reply actions
Why is Tulo ranked so poorly in fielding?
They have him 7th in the league at UZR/150. What is the RngR and why does Tulo have -2.2 when JJ Hardy has +6.3?
Plenty of possible reasons
The stats are in relation average at the position; Tulo could be 2.2 runs below average (2.2 runs is miniscule—a few missed plays). There can also be data issues – the creator of the stat has stated numerous times over the years that such small samples of data (i.e., half seasons of fielding data) are inherently unreliable. With that sample size, random variation (where batted balls land) can play a large role. Sometimes, scorer biases/inaccuracies can play a role. The same system has been used with two sets of play-by-play data—fangraphs uses BIS, whereas the researcher uses STATS inc, and those two systems can show a big difference. (Same stat system—the difference is the characterization of batted ball data—one system may list the batted ball to short a liner, another a fly ball, though this tends to affect the OF more.)
If you look at Hardy’s fangraphs fielding card, he does well in that category each year, so it does appear he’s a very good fielder.
As long as we’re fretting over 70 games’ of data, I think most would agree that of the Rockies, Fowler’s UZR is most puzzling thus far.
Free Seth Smith!
I'm sorry, but I can't accept these numbers.
Some of this just seems too far off to be right. Pujols and Helton are at -4.4 (7th in NL) and -4.5 (8th), respectively, while Casey Kotchman leads the league. Matt Kemp, who I watched misplay a fly ball into an extra base hit at Coors, leads NL center fielders. They say that Tulo has had the most defensive games and expected outs by a far margin. It seems like they are trying to say that he makes more plays than any other shortstop, but the league average shortstop would make even more plays given the same distribution of balls in play.
Maybe it has only been half a season, but if that is not enough of a sample size for this stat to be accurate, nothing is.
Half a season isn't enough of a sample size
Unfortunately, I can’t do the math for you, you could google “UZR” and “mgl” and/or “litchman”. Google “inside the book blog”. They’ll talk about the statistical reliability of various pieces of data.
I’ll use an example from hitting stats from their book (“The Book”). Do you think 20 points of OBP is a big increase? Such as if a player raises his OBP 20 points from one season to the next? That is just as easily random variation—they estimate for a player with a .330 OBP, one standard deviation over 500 PA’s is 0.23.
You’re fretting over Tulo being 2.2 runs below average. What’s an out worth, 0.7 or 0.8 runs? That’s 3 plays! That could be the result of how the stringer scored the grounder, or even a result of positioning.
Free Seth Smith!
Remember this
Fielding metrics are never going to be perfect. It’s just not plausible. There’s too much discretion and too much bias to make it happen, it’s never going to be truly objective.
UZR tends to track how guys handle the ball off of the bat. Helton’s definitely slowed down in that regard, but a lot of the strength of a 1B is ability to pick a ball or turn an errant throw into an out, or at least hold it to a single. UZR doesn’t really track that well.
It’s the same reason there isn’t a good catching metric.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: Badass
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 25, 2009 1:16 PM MDT up reply actions
Thanks. I'll keep that in mind.
I’ve been hearing more about the improvements in defensive metrics lately, so I thought they had become fairly reliable. Now I feel like they should be taken with a grain of salt, and maybe aren’t worth a whole lot more than fielding percentage.
FWIW, I was looking more closely at some of those numbers, and it seems that the guys with high RngR are the ones who have low exO. In other words, if the system doesn’t think that there were many balls hit to a player that the average fielder would have gotten, the player will score better under UZR. Tulo has made more outs per 9 than anyone except Elvis Andrus, but the system thinks he should have made even more. For some reason, it thinks Jeter is doing better than average, though.
is this a counting rocks?
if you're reading this, it means my undying support for your team will result in its failure.
That's what it says
under the headline.
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
yeah, why?
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: Badass
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 24, 2009 3:55 PM MDT up reply actions
I realize they want to get a read on Carlos but
at what point do they decide that hitting major league pitching in an effort to make the playoffs is more important?
I know about the speed and defense and arm but his K rate is starting to get really alarming. When we’ve got Seth and Spilly who obviously are better hitters right now, I’m not sure we can afford to have Carlos out there on a daily basis. I guess I’m really starting to get concerned that he’s overmatched vs. major league pitching. Especially combined with last year in Oakland.
OK, now altogether, “Sample Size!!!”.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
couldn't agree with you more
I just saw that catch Spilly made last night, the Angels announcer said he didn’t know Anybody could’ve chased down that ball, and they have Torii Hunter. How this guy got into the position he is in, is beyond me. Gonzalez is falling into the same position he was in Oakland and they wisely sent him down- his history is not changing. Smith is not as good defensively and Tracy likes him as a pinch hitter. Playoff run should rule at this point
Hey RMN...
I like the spreadsheet. Is this new or have you done this before and I’m woefully ignorant? Either way, it’s pretty cool to see that once in a while.
This is the first column I've included the spreadsheet in
I usually build one when I’m doing a big team thing, but i just put the results in a data table in the article.
I figured everyone would want to see what Helton and Iannetta were doing, but i didn’t really have much remaining time to write about them, outside of “They’ve come on strong as well” and you readers deserve better analysis than that.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: Badass
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 25, 2009 7:04 AM MDT up reply actions

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