Thursday Rockpile: With Rockies run over, anxiety attacks starting...
by Rox Girl on Jun 25, 2009 7:53 AM MDT
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PrintLosing two in a row to the Angels at their home park isn't something that unheard of this season, even the Red Sox have done it. Yet because of the way the Rockies started the season in the gutter, people seem to be assuming that this is more like seeing a recovering alcoholic at the bar, and the wheels have fallen off the wagon:
Road turns against Rockies - The Denver Post
Troy Renck questions if the Rockies are suffering an identity crisis. The rest of the road trip will help us know, Oakland and Dodger Stadium are two venues Rockies teams in the past haven't fared so well in. Of course, the last time we visited Oakland the Rockies starting pitchers were Brian Bohanon, Denny Neagle and Pedro Astacio, so maybe the history there doesn't mean as much, but the Dodgers have certainly had our number of late.
Jason Marquis battled, and fought to stay in the game last night, but Tracy Ringolsby asks, "Was it a good idea?" My opinion is that at 6-0 after three innings, the game was pretty much already in the Angels court and that's where Marquis as innings eater became more important than Marquis as winner. Leaving him in didn't pay the Rockies last night, but it may later in the season.
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SI.com's Joel Sherman and ESPN.com's Rob Neyer both see the legitimacy behind the Rockies 2009 revival:
Rockies hot streak under Jim Tracy has them thinking trade - Joel Sherman - SI.com
Are these Rockies for real? - SweetSpot by Rob Neyer - ESPN
Sherman's article mentions that Jhoulys Chacin may be the Rockies preferred internal option to replace a starter later in the season rather than going out and looking for one on the trading block, Chacin will get some early big game practice Friday as he's set to start in Tulsa's "playoff" game with Springfield. As Jack Etkin writes, it's actually a regular season game that will count in the second half standings as well as a winner take all play-in for the first half title.
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Tulowitzki’s Revival | FanGraphs Baseball
Dave Cameron at FanGraphs takes a look at Tulo's resurgence.
Saunders: Rockies' Marquis, Spilborghs are keepers - The Denver Post
Patrick Saunders opines that the Rockies should keep both Ryan Spilborghs and Jason Marquis in light of Sherman's note from the NY Post yesterday that a Phillies deal had been in the works.
Lovin' box scores, shortstops and one-pitch outs - ESPN
Peter Gammons blogs that if the Rockies do decide to market Spilly, there will be plenty of interest, including from the Red Sox, Rangers and Tigers. Oddly enough, I haven't found any rumors this morning of teams inquiring on Garrett Atkins despite his great performance last night. Should he outhit Matt Holliday while the Rockies are at Oakland? That might make it a different story.
Rockies' Gonzalez stays confident after rough start - The Denver Post
More Rockies notes, including news that Carlos Gonzalez is still confident, Clint Barmes is still number two, and that Nolan Arenado, the second round pick from this year's draft was a guest of the Rockies for the series but apparently Tyler Matzek declined the invitation as negotiations continue.
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Keep or trade Marquis?
well, yesterday I was all in the “Keep Marquis, he’s a winnah” camp. But, after last nights selling, I went and looked at some of his numbers. Specifically his historical splits 1st half vs 2nd half. And here’s what I’ve learned: TRADE HIM NOW!
Marquis is about to be a below average pitcher. He’s also the Rockies most expensive pitcher, and even trading him for 1/2 the season should bring some salary relief (that could go a long way in signing Matzek). He’s at the height of value right now. Quality starting pitching is always in demand. He should bring something back.
But, But Redhawk….if you trade Marquis, and George of the Rose keeps sucking then you are now down 2 pitchers. Plus as a contenda we’ll need more pitching..not less. Yes, that is an issue, but if you look at Marquis numbers in 1/2 of the season in his career..you will see that we won’t be much worse off with a replacement level guy. The Rockies have several young promising arms in AA that look to be near ready. Some are already on the 40 man roster and their clock is already a’tickin (Deduno, Rodgers). Greg Smith is making his comeback from injuries.
And no this isn’t about one bad game (though that did get me to actually look stuff up).
And to take a page out of the Kisla thought: Trade Atkins & Marquis for Halladay!
and I left out
Franklin Morales who is doing ok in the Springs again.
Reynolds and Hirsh are available too, but I’m sorry, but I think I’ve written them off from ever helping the major league club. Hirsh is the saddest story, going from minor league pitcher of the year twice to being near done. He’s out of options after this year, and I see no reason to keep him on the Rockies 40 man after this season.
Hirsh is looking like garbage in AAA
I hate to say it, but Eaton and Johnson might be the best callup options. Lord knows I’m excited to see Hynick or Morales or Chacin, but Esmil Rogers looks like the best candidate for either a promotion to the Springs, and then we go from there.
Yeah Hirsh makes me sad as well. He seemed to fit in really well with the team, and then just freak injuries, etc, killed him.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: Badass
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 25, 2009 10:41 AM MDT up reply actions
Not all players
need to go to each step/level. I’m not sure pitching at Colorado Springs with no humidor is such a great thing for a young pitcher. Then again, it might help make a guy concentrate.
Johnson has fallen off lately, and never had that great of stuff, and I don’t know if he’ll be much of a major leaguer.
I’m ok with having to promote Morales, Chacin or Rodgers, ore even Eaton to the major league roster if we had too. And the way it’s going, I suspect the Rockies will have one if not 2 rotation spots to fill.
i think we're on the same page here
and you raise good points. I’m just thinking about the concept of promoting a pitcher too high too fast, it can mess with their confidence, and break them.
I guess we’ll just have to see. Here’s hoping for DLR’s next start to be decent
/raises glass
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: Badass
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 25, 2009 7:21 PM MDT up reply actions
This is pretty much what I've been arguing with Marquis since the Pirates 10 run inning...
sell high on Marquis. It needs to happen because a) he’s expensive, b) he has value, and c) he’s honestly not this good and we can get a better trade now. That and we actually have some pitching depth already with Morales and Smith.
Eschew Obfuscation!
It was a radical idea
but I’ve come around to this arguement.
And we have Adam Eaton in the system as well, so we have that going for us too.
Smith looks like crap in AA
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: Badass
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 25, 2009 10:42 AM MDT up reply actions
Through one start
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Jun 25, 2009 10:44 AM MDT up reply actions
point
i misread his line to think he’d pitched like 30 innings already
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: Badass
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 25, 2009 11:15 AM MDT up reply actions
" Marquis since the Pirates 10 run inning"
You mean the 10 run inning given up by Corpas, Grilli, and Daley in relief of Jimenez?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 26, 2009 1:21 AM MDT up reply actions
Yes...
I wasn’t referring to Marquis giving up those runs, but rather the traumatic event that I was forced to witness. It made me realize that Marquis (and Hawpe for that matter) needed to go, and I still haven’t backed down from that position.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Jun 26, 2009 10:30 AM MDT up reply actions
Marquis 1st half-2nd half splits: DON'T PANIC
Several thoughts here…
1) A 4.93 ERA isn’t reason enough to slough him off. Sure, no one would be happy if Marquis posts a 4.93 ERA in the 2nd half, but it could be worse. Who do you bring up that will do better? Greg Smith coming off injuries, moving from a pitchers’ park to a hitters’ park could easily do as bad or worse, as could Fogg, Morales or callups from AA. And a true replacement pitcher? Well, the analytical replacement starter is going to be set higher than a 4.93 ERA, given that the league ERA for a starter is 4.36. A true, “freely available” starter? You don’t want to know. So, if you want to trade him, you’d better get someone decent back, which is hard to see happening unless the Rockies send over someone else as well.
2) I was poking around Marquis’s splits, wondering if there was a pattern. There doesn’t seem to be. It’s not like he folds after particularly heavy usage; he’s improved his 2nd half ERA in a year (2004) with high IP/GS (for Marquis) in the first half but also has seen his ERA balloon when his 1st half usage was relatively light (2007).
While I wish there were a pattern, so the Rockies could identify it and fix it/avoid it, at least it doesn’t seem necessarily to be workload-based. If it is, well, this is manageable, and is helped out by Marquis’s efficiency (~3.5 pitches/PA).
3) FIP tells a more heartening story: His career 2nd half ERA is higher by 0.69 runs. His career 2nd half FIP, OTOH, goes up by about 0.27 runs. You can kind of see this in that his BB and K rate don’t decrease as drastically from 1st to 2nd half (and HR rate goes from 1.1 to 1.2 per 9) as ERA, while his BABIP is .272 1st half, .303 2nd half. Some of his big el-foldo years ERA-wise include ginormous BABIP swings, like from .266 to .333 (2006) and .246 to .306 (2007). His career BABIP is .285, his BABIP thus far in 2009 is….285.
Hard to say if that’s predictive or not. BABIP increases like that could be bad luck or regression to league norms, but it could also be signs of a tiring pitcher. I feel a little better seeing that his 2009 numbers are at his career mark so far, though.
Heck, maybe it’s not Marquis…it’s his fielders. Yeah. The midwest humidity. I’ll keep telling myself that.
Free Seth Smith!
Remember about FIP
That it’s gonna have trouble with guys like Marquis and Cook that put a lot of balls into play.
But yeah, good post. This is the kind of thing you should make into a Fanpost. In fact, if you want to, I can hide this for you.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: Badass
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 25, 2009 11:16 AM MDT up reply actions
Hmm, it's up to you
since it is within the context of a marquis discussion, I can see it either way. I’d be happy to write it up as a fanpost and include some background context that led to it.
I figured FIP was interesting for that reason (that Marquis’s ERA tends to be better than his FIP). I’m not quite sure what to conclude, but figured BABIP figures are interesting and some reason for optimism.
Free Seth Smith!
his low strikeout style usually doesn't help FIP
I’m not trying to shoot you down, I’m just suggesting that like Javy Vazquez, FIP can over or underrate pitchers.
tRA is suggesting a “deserved” ERA of 4.57, but he’s also the innings-eatingest pitcher on the team.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: Badass
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 25, 2009 11:43 AM MDT up reply actions
FIP and other elements
Maybe I’m misundertanding—are you saying that FIP is just generally unreliable in Marquis’s case?
I understand what FIP is and that there’s not the same differential for all pitchers. If I were wondering about Javy, seeing his FIP wouldn’t be as eye catching, because I’ve seen that his FIP is usually better than his ERA (I guess he must be the poster-child for FIP outliers).
Marquis is the opposite (do I have this wrong?), his overall ERA is usually better than his FIP. It caught my eye to see that his FIP was encouraging, despite how it tends to underrate him overall. Perhaps I should have thrown out FIP altogether as something that only confuses the issue.
However, I did dig a little deeper to take a quick look at some non-fippy things, like his BABIP, and saw it worsen, as one would guess. (Whether the things like strand rates and DP rates also get worse would be interesting to know.)
To see that this season’s ERA and BABIP are not far off from his FIP and career BABIP gives me some reason to be optimistic, or at least counters the shock of just looking at 1st and 2nd half career ERA. The non-FIP elements that one could say typically regress to the league mean for Marquis may not be as far from the mean in this first half.
Now, maybe he just gets tired and in the 2nd half loses whatever bite that enables him to do well with low K rates, and he’ll still get worse. Or his HR rate could go up…
FWIW, a tRA of 4.57 seems pretty close to his actual performance (4.66 after last night), since it’s set against runs/9 rather than ERA.
Free Seth Smith!
It was just meant to say
that high K guys are rewarded by FIP, and low K guys tend to not be as much, despite groundballing tendencies.
It’s pretty on the mark with Marquis right now. Earlier this season it was a lot easier on Randy Johnson than it should’ve been, so with FIP I like the extra analysis.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: Badass
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 25, 2009 1:11 PM MDT up reply actions
Spilly and the Red Sox
No doubt he could help just about anybody, but the Sox’s interest in him is surprising to me. They already have two similar players to him (Baldelli and Kotsay). Spilly would probably be a slight improvement due to Kotsay’s age and Baldelli’s health, but it’s an odd move for them.
Free Seth Smith!
Atkins
I think his contract more than this year’s batting line is probably going to be the issue, as he appears to be coming out of his slump, or at least showing there’s not some major physical problem at the root of the slow start, and he has a track record of being a fair hitter. As the deadline nears, less will be owed so perhaps they’ll get more interest. As it is, I guess I don’t see a problem not trading him. Tracy seems committed to Stewart, and one would doubt with the contract that Atkins would bring much in return. If Atkins is going to hit a little, it’s not a bad thing to have a RH bat on the bench. (Though I guess if the Rockies are that strapped for cash as the more pessimistic around here think, that’s bad…but also pretty crazy for a team that could be going down to the wire crying “my kingdom for a middle reliever.”)
Free Seth Smith!
As Depth
Akins is great to have. You never know when some one gets hurt. Stewart can’t play every day for the rest of the season, so to have a guy like Aktins as bench depth I think is just fine, if he is immovable. The real issue was Hurdle not only starting Atkins everyday, but batting him clean up, when he’s obviously not a clean up guy.
As for his salary…the Rockies are cash strapped. So any savings would be good….but not sure that’s in the cards.
The Sherman SI article
That article was good. Maybe I should say really good, given that the trainwreck of the Kruk piece is out there.
Free Seth Smith!
I hate off days
though I’m pretty sure the Rockies won’t lose today.
Interesting note in the DP on 2nd round pick being at the game last night, but Matzek, who lives fairly close wasn’t at the game.
I personally don't feel Matzek has any intention of signing with us.
If he decides to go to Oregon, it will be interesting to keep track of him and see where and by whom he’s drafted after his junior year.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
Matzek's just all business, I'm getting the impression,
Which is fine. I wouldn’t take it a s a big sign either way that he didn’t show up. He’s got a gift that people would be willing to pay big money to utilize and he has every right to capitalize on it. Should the Rockies sign him, I wouldn’t look for us locking him into a Tulo type of arbitration contract, though and don’t expect to see him in a Rox uniform past the slave years.
Has your thoughts on Matzek changed at all since the draft
either in the Rockies chances of signing him, wither drafting him was a good idea or no, or on the kid in general?
I'm probably a little less optimistic that he signs,
But think that people are getting ahead of themselves who say that it isn’t going to happen or that he has no intention of signing with us as pedalpusher says above. He’s an agent’s dream client, similar to A-Rod or Holliday in that respect, and while other people see signals of going to Oregon in his words, I just see a hard line negotiating stance that’s going to bleed every drop of money possible out of a deal.
Let’s look at his options:
1. Sign with the Rockies – Benefits include a sizable chunk of cash right now, a likely faster entry into the MLB than the one he’ll have as a Junior out of Oregon (he could be in the majors in 2012 with the Rockies given average ascents for top quality HS players, with the Ducks, an MLB debut could be 2014 or later) and therefore he would also enjoy the benefit of a quicker and larger/longer first free agency contract. Drawbacks include missing out on playing first base and the fact that the Rockies aren’t going to open their checkbook as much as he originally wished heading into the draft.
2. Go to Oregon – Benefits include a good college education, a chance to work with some top notch college coaches who have a history of developing quality, MLB desired pitchers. Drawbacks include that there’s a much higher likelihood of his draft stock and bonus falling in that time than going up. What’s more, look at what Brian Matusz signed for as the top college LHP and fourth overall selection in last season’s draft: $3,200,000. The idea that he’ll get more money next time around is pretty far fetched. He’s already an MLB desired pitcher, so the benefit of the coaching is somewhat moot.
3. Go to Junior College – Benefits include being eligible for the draft next season, but this route doesn’t seem to work very well historically. Other drawbacks include the loss of that good college education for one that’s mediocre at best and the loss of the coaching at Oregon.
If he is really as business minded as I suspect, signing with the Rockies should still be the premium option and he’ll be happy he signs with them and gets his professional career underway. If he’s genuinely interested in college and playing first and the Oregon coaching staff, going to college will be his route and he should still be happy. If his words and behavior are actually just the manifestations of a big ego and he really is ticked that the Rockies called his bluff, he’ll either likewise go to Oregon or JuCo, but the happiness of how things ultimately turn out probably isn’t forthcoming for him.
I think people really need to take a close look at how the Rockies have some appealing cards here, though, before writing off their chances of signing him.
Remember also the negotiating game
Good analysis as usual.
There’s also the negotiating game. There’s little reason for either side to do much this early (besides the obligatory contract offer from the Rockies). So there’s likely to be little news over the next month, and the silence won’t really mean much. There may be little in the way of offer-counteroffer action until days or perhaps even hours before the deadline.
Free Seth Smith!
Good analysis as usual. I will preface the following remarks with I don't know this kid from Adam and have no idea is mind set
but I really feel that his contract demands pre-draft may have been a tool to keep from getting drafted by Washington or other perennial bottom dwellers and/or small market teams. Now like it or not, we are seen as bottom dwellers who play 81 games in what is still thought of as a launching pad. If a big market team or consistent winner had drafted him, I would feel differently. Again, I don’t know him, but I would think a kid this good doesn’t think his skills will deteriorate over the next three years and he will be in the same position.
Is the lure of mega-bucks enough to offset that? Probably if the Rox come up with his asking price. Probably not if the Rox insist of offering something more realistic for his talents.
Now I really hope I’m wrong and that we can get a deal for a reasonable amount done. But I’m leery that will happen.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
by pedalpusher on Jun 25, 2009 10:57 AM MDT up reply actions
see why aren't you turning these into Thoughts from Up High
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: Badass
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jun 25, 2009 11:17 AM MDT up reply actions
Dirty blog secret?
I like a mix of quality content in the comments as well as on the front page and in fan posts because it makes people more likely to click through and read these and keep on coming back, keeping the Row’s page views/visit and time spent on the site high relative to other blogs. It’s like finding easter eggs on DVD’s or in a video game.
Eventually, once the economy recovers and advertisers actually decide to start spending again, they’ll look at the 2300+ visitors a day spending over five minutes on the site with 2.5 page views/visit as more appealing than the 2500+ visitors at True Blue LA, for instance, who only spend 2 1/2 minutes on that site on average and 1.8 page views. That way we can figure out a way to start compensating some of our front page contributors and columnists for the great work they do. I thought they might like that, but maybe I’m wrong. Of course, the goal is to get somewhere closer to McCovey Chronicles’ 6700+ visitors a day that spend nearly six minutes on that site.
The other big issue is that strong content in the comments elevates the overall discourse of threads so they don’t sink to newspaper level responses. By having lengthy, well thought out posts down here, it encourages others to follow suit and discourages/intimidates many who might not have as much to add to the discussion. Obviously that’s not always going to be the case and you’ll have a few less thoughtful posters make the attempt anyway, and as oo nrb pointed out the other day, this sword can cut both ways and make threads feel clique-ish and discourage lurkers who we would otherwise like to see contributing, but it does serve as a decent filter that saves us from some troll issues.
Does anyone know anything about
Friedrich’s elbow? Wasn’t he supposed to get an MRI this week?
Can't stree how important
the rest of this road trip is and then the 10 game home stand before the break…before these 2 straight losses i wanted 48-40 or 47-41 by the ASB and i am sticking with it. The 10 game home stand will be against all “bad” teams, i would like to take 3 or 4 of the last 6 in this road trip….preferably 2 of 3 in LA.
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
I agree... anything less than 4-5 will be a disappointment.
I think we have to win at least one of these series to keep some momentum, and I think if we have any hopes of actually making the NL West a race again, we have to win the series in LA. These next six are very important early road games.
stress* wow
typing to quick…
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jun 25, 2009 12:32 PM MDT up reply actions
47-41 is doable
And the Giants play Milwaukee so we ca gain some WC ground. i would like to be in 2nd place in both Div and WC at the break.
This
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jun 25, 2009 6:46 PM MDT up reply actions
"Sick"
Awesome nickname for Stewart!!
I forget whether that one was brought up earlier in the season when some suggestions were voted on.. at anyrate, “Sick” is what I’m going to use from now on.
I'd just like to go on the record
As being firmly against days with no Rockies baseball. Summer TV being what it is, and with all due respect to Ms. Fawcett and Mr. Jackson, I’d really rather be watching my Rockies play. The rockhead thanks you for your kind indulgence.
And how far back are we now?
I agree
I’m lost without either baseball or homework to do, and since it’s summer I don’t have homework for the next week. Even ESPN doesn’t have baseball, sad day.
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
He's absolutely terrible this season - the worst SS in MLB
In fact, they’d be better with Bobby Crosby playing short for them, and It may not be a fluke.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 26, 2009 10:25 AM MDT up reply actions
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