Seth Smith: Man of Many Splits
By this point in the season, I think it's been made pretty apparent that I'm a giant fan of our own LF Seth Smith. I find his playing time to be incredibly lacking, considering his general batting efficiency, his fielding, and the fact that I hear he also can fly and does charity work for puppies with cancer in his spare time.
Seriously, though, his statistical breakdown is really interesting, considering the deficiencies he's supposed to have and the actual numbers he puts up, both home and away.
For starters, let's take a look at my favorite stat, IsoD (OBP - AVG) which, as we all know by now, is a measure of how well a player is able to take walks. The general idea of OBP, again, as we all know, is how often a player DOESN'T make an out. Right now, Smith is amongst the leaders in both categories for the Rockies.
|
Name |
PA |
AB |
BB |
SO |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
IsoD |
IsoP |
|
Seth Smith* |
113 |
90 |
23 |
17 |
.278 |
.425 |
.489 |
.914 |
.147 |
.211 |
|
24 |
19 |
4 |
10 |
.211 |
.348 |
.263 |
.611 |
.137 |
.052 |
|
|
123 |
104 |
18 |
27 |
.231 |
.350 |
.510 |
.859 |
.119 |
.279 |
|
|
129 |
111 |
14 |
35 |
.180 |
.287 |
.405 |
.692 |
.107 |
.225 |
|
|
192 |
163 |
23 |
36 |
.221 |
.313 |
.387 |
.699 |
.092 |
.166 |
|
|
184 |
155 |
22 |
39 |
.258 |
.346 |
.394 |
.740 |
.088 |
.136 |
|
|
189 |
168 |
18 |
26 |
.196 |
.275 |
.286 |
.561 |
.079 |
.090 |
|
|
70 |
61 |
6 |
14 |
.230 |
.304 |
.344 |
.649 |
.074 |
.114 |
|
|
180 |
161 |
15 |
35 |
.261 |
.330 |
.422 |
.752 |
.069 |
.161 |
|
|
167 |
145 |
18 |
26 |
.345 |
.413 |
.614 |
1.027 |
.068 |
.269 |
|
|
159 |
145 |
11 |
33 |
.262 |
.323 |
.469 |
.792 |
.061 |
.207 |
|
|
194 |
173 |
18 |
25 |
.312 |
.371 |
.503 |
.874 |
.059 |
.191 |
|
|
42 |
39 |
3 |
6 |
.256 |
.310 |
.462 |
.771 |
.054 |
.206 |
|
|
24 |
23 |
1 |
7 |
.130 |
.167 |
.217 |
.384 |
.037 |
.087 |
* indicates LHB, # indicates Switch
The other number I love to see is that high IsoP (SLG-AVG), and it warms the cockles of my evil heart to see Seth Smith amongst the leaders in that category as well. However, whenever we see a player OPSing over .900, especially a Rockies batter, it can't be real, it's all Coors Field, he's actually terrible on the road, blah blah blah.
Join me after the jump and we'll see what Seth Smith has to say about this.
When you talk Home/Away splits, Seth Smith has this to say:
|
|
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
K |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
|
Home |
21 |
39 |
10 |
14 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
12 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
.359 |
.510 |
.590 |
1.100 |
|
Away |
25 |
51 |
6 |
11 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
5 |
11 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
.216 |
.355 |
.412 |
.767 |
Oh.
That wasn't expected.
Before we automatically burn him at the stake for being a Coors Hitter (TM), let's break down some more numbers. Because that's what we do here in Counting Rocks.
|
|
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
IsoD |
IsoP |
|
Home |
.359 |
.510 |
.590 |
1.100 |
.151 |
.231 |
|
Away |
.216 |
.355 |
.412 |
.767 |
.139 |
.196 |
Well I'll be buggered. Will you take a look at that? Those Iso's are remarkable similar, home and road!
What this is telling me is that Smith is surprisingly consistent between home/road - in terms of his batting style. He's walking a very similar amount, when he makes contact, it goes a similar distance (if you'll give him the benefit of a bit of a Coors SLG bonus), he's just having trouble getting the actual hits.
Granted, it's a small-ish sample size, but something's clearly up. Smith is currently batting with a LD% of 23.6%, a whole .02% lower than his career line. He's clearly making solid contact when he makes it, so let's check out BABIP and see what secrets that can reveal for us.
|
|
PA |
AB |
BAbip |
|
Home |
51 |
39 |
.433 |
|
Away |
62 |
51 |
.205 |
|
Season |
113 |
90 |
.304 |
Well, just looking at those home/road splits, it's pretty apparent that neither BABIP is really sustainable. Smith sported a .349 BABIP in the minors, which indicates that his home split might not be TOO unreal, but it more points to the fact that he just can't find a hole when he's on the road.
His 2008 numbers show an exact opposite split:
|
|
PA |
AB |
BAbip |
|
Home |
43 |
35 |
.148 |
|
Away |
80 |
73 |
.370 |
|
Season |
123 |
108 |
.370 |
So given that Smith's splits have flip-flopped between the two seasons, I'm not ready to brand him a home or road hitter. Or really anything other than a very, very patient hitter.
The funniest split to look at this season is the only one that everyone seems to be behind: Seth Smith can't hit lefties. Well, can he?
|
|
PA |
AB |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
BB |
SO |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
BAbip |
|
vs RHP |
101 |
83 |
23 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
18 |
15 |
.277 |
.406 |
.446 |
.852 |
.308 |
|
vs LHP |
12 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
.286 |
.583 |
1.000 |
1.583 |
.250 |
An OPS of 1.583? And you people say this guy can't hit lefties? Looks to me like OWNS lefties!
(What do you mean 12 PA isn't statistically significant? Go away, I'm proving a point here.)
Well I'm clearly joking around about the LHP splits, but the Home/Road splits are...well, completely weird. They're both very AVG-driven, and that road BABIP is bound to come up. This isn't the case where he's magically slugging .200 higher in Coors than on the road and that fills out his entire OPS split, he's clearly batting pretty similarly both places. My thought? Give the guy more playing time. There's no way a guy with those peripheral numbers is seriously a .216 hitter outside of Coors Field.
So to conclude, Seth Smith is a very interesting batter. Fangraphs lists him as just shy of a win above replacement (which would more than likely be higher if he had full-time ABs), but his .409 wOBA puts him tied for 5th with Adam Dunn in MLB LFs (4th in the NL).
You ask me what I think about Seth Smith? He's badass.
1 recs |
16 comments
|
Comments
Hardly as bullish on him
but he needs to play a lot more.
Smith should play every day.....
Spilly is proving this year that he was rightly cast in past years as a 4th outfielder. His ceiling is not what I see with Seth.
Trade Spilly
Spils signed with Boras in the offseason. It’s only a matter of time until his price goes up. I would package Spils and someone else (Marquis maybe?) to any takers at the trading deadline and open up a full time starting spot in left for Smith. CarGo can come up and be the 4th outfielder.
He's not a FA until after the 2012 season
His price will start going up after this season because he’ll be arb-eligible, not because of Boras.
If CarGon comes up, I’d have to think you’d start him for the most part. He might not be better than Smith but CarGon’s ceiling is higher and I think you have to find out what he can do.
If his bat continues the way it is, it's not going to go up all that much, either.
Plus, his age. He’s almost 30. Really, it is a difference maker. I mean, he’s still got a good few years, but with what he is (a solid fourth outfielder) you want someone like him long term.
Also, the whole thing with Boras was just for endorsements and such, wasn’t it? It’s not like Spilly’s a future MVP that will soon be demanding to get $50 mil or be traded to the Yanks.
I'd argue that in terms of overall game play
Gonzalez might be as valuable if not more than Hawpe, when you account his glove AND his bat.
I am saying that with a straight face.
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Hurt
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 3, 2009 3:28 PM MDT up reply actions
Good article.
I’m convinced.
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
Don't fool yourselves...
Carlos Gonzalez is also a Scott Boras client. The fact is that that what the Rockies received from the Matt Holliday trade was three pieces that they fully intend to turn around and trade as well. I would expect Street traded by the deadline, Gonzalez to get some playing time and possibly moved as well.
Spilly is a guy you keep. He is never going to be very expensive because of factors like age. However I would be slow to suggest that based on his numbers this year that he should be dismissed as an everyday player. If we took the first two months of the season we would also be saying that quite a few other Rockies are not everyday players.
Check out my website...www.rockiesreview.com
Well the point is
We’ll have 6 cost-controlled years of Gonzalez, and Spilborghs is going to get worse before he gets better.
Matt Murton status: Freed
Chris Iannetta status: Mashing AAA
Seth Smith status: Badass
by Andrew Martin on Jun 3, 2009 4:11 PM MDT up reply actions
What I like best about Smith
is that pretty much every time he’s at the plate, he does something productive. He finds ways to get on base and if someone’s on base, he’ll find ways to move him over. Even his outs are productive outs. This is what made him so amazing and 2007 and he’s still doing it in 2009. Smith should be playing everyday.
Good article RMN, as always. I always love when numbers back up my gut feelings about players.
I'm an agent
And there are good agents and bad agents, but even for the best, the market will be the biggest influence on fees, deals etc. Boras’s aggressive tactics with the game’s best players are well known and are justified because at the very top end, you can (almost) demand the moon and the stars and someone will pay.
At a lower level – say Spilly level – Boras will be far more limited by the market. There are hundreds of players round about Spilly’s skill level, and if Boras asks too much clubs simply won’t trade for him. CarGo too. So I wouldn’t be too worried about the Boras of it all unless carGo breaks out beyond our expectations. Spilly I wouldn’t worry at all.
looking at the table....
It really looks like Helton has changed his approach—-what happened? He used to be a walk machine.
Kind of scary
and I don’t know why. Look at some of the Comments in last weeks Counting Rocks about Helton to get a better ideal.
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
Somebody has to sit...
… and I really don’t think it’s Smith. You’re not going to sit Hawpe. Heck, I think they need to lock up Hawpe long term. I don’t think Fowler is in the big leagues to ride the pine. That means it’s Spils versus Smith. I think Smith wins.






















