Sunday Rockpile: Trade Deadline will be no Halladay for Rockies
by Rox Girl on Jul 12, 2009 9:54 AM MDT
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- Troy Renck argues that trading for Roy Halladay doesn't make much sense for the Rockies because a cost he came up with (Ubaldo Jimenez, Ian Stewart, two top prospects) exceeds the expected return. He's right, I wouldn't trade for Halladay for that cost either, but the problem is that this isn't some real demand of the Blue Jays, just like whatever I or anybody else have speculated about isn't really a genuine demand. At that rate, sure, it makes little sense, but if you take Jimenez out of the equation it starts to make some. We can't know what that final cost is going to be, but by writing it off as completely unreachable before the process even starts shows lack of initiative. I sure hope the team itself isn't doing anything like that...
- Oh wait, Dave Krieger talked to Dan O'Dowd and found out that's exactly what the team is doing. Closing the door. Okay then. I'm going to now push some people's buttons and suggest that since the Rockies are shutting off the thought of adding an impact player at the trade deadline, it means that they are serious about doing what it takes to sign Tyler Matzek, right? Right? Rockies? Hello?
- Renck also writes a midseason review of the Rockies. So far, not too shabby, not too fantastic either. Let's hope there's some more magic left for the second half.
- Tracy Ringolsby asks for Inside the Rockies readers to make their own assessment of the team's first half performance.
- And that seems to be about it, a slow Sunday before the All-Star break, although Lisa Winston, who's a big Young family fan, has more about EY2's Futures Game appearance today. That first linked Renck piece does have some other relevant notes, however, such as Seth Smith doing some work at first base and no interest from the Rockies for Freddy Sanchez. John Perrotto needs to get a better source it seems.
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I wonder
just how much less the Blue Jays would demand for Halladay if somebody took Vernon Wells’s contract off the books.
Halladay, Matzek, and the whole crazy plan
apologies to Keith Urban
Roy Halladay is NOT a stupid idea, that should be shut down before even trying. Renck makes 2 assumptions that are just wrong. 1) The Jays will want a absorbent ransom, for 1 1/2 years of a 32 year old pitcher. This may be what they want, but in todays baseball climate, young, cost certain prospects are very valuable, and valued. Teams that do build through trades, don’t have them and the teams that do have them, don’t give them away. Also, the Twins did not get that kind of haul for Santana, and the Indians didn’t get that kind of haul for Sabathia. In fact both got a top prospect and a couple lesser ones. 2) Renck also assumes that at age 34 Halladay will get a 6 year deal around $20million per. That COULD happen, but I doubt it. that’s a lot of money for a 34 year old arm, even one that belongs to Halladay. Halladay, re-signed with the Jays not once but twice and below market each time, so money isn’t his #1 driving factor, also if the Rockies could make it through 2011, Helton’s contract would come off the books, freeing up money for Halladay
I think the Jays will end up trading Rios With Halladay. The Jays need to dump that bad contract, and since no one will have the prospects the Jays want/need, the next best thing would be salary relief. And in this game, the Rockies are out. This puts the Mets and Phillies as top contenders, though ESPN thinks that the Yankees and Red Sox will both bid Halladay’s price up, hoping to hurt the eventual winner.
Matzek. I agree. If you can’t play with the big boys in Free Agency, or in trades, then you have to be the best in developing talent from within. The Rockies drafted Matzek, knowing his asking price. If the Rockies DON’T sign him, it will be (to me) a sign that they are the joke many local sports “fans” claim them to be. Prove me wrong front office…you didn’t draft Matzek, just so you DIDN’T have to sign and pay a #1 pick did you?
Oh, and this has been a bad home stand. Besides Wednesday game the team has looked lifeless. 20th in the league in BA isn’t a good thing. Yes they are 2nd in the league in runs scored but so much of that is in blow outs. Getting a key hit to pick up Runners in Scoring Position has been all to rare, and frustrating.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
Trades
Sure, CC and Santana didn’t get that haul, but neither had 1.5 years…CC was only a .5 rental. And the Twins are regularly killed by analysts for how little they got for Santana. So I doubt the Jays will be giving any bargains. Its going to take some real big dogs to bring him in. And we should try, for sure, but I have absolutely no illusions that Halladay will ever wear a Rox jersey.
As for this homestand, I agree its been disappointing. However, I feel that just as the first 2 months of the season got the NN’s like me a bit over-pessimistic, June got all the sunshine kids a bit overhappy. We aren’t as bad as Apr/May, but are nowhere near as good as June. Barring some legit personnel moves, this team will remain frustrating. Win today, and its all good under reasonable expectations.
As for your BA argument — I’m with you to a large extent. It seems that a lot of dudes simply aren’t getting it done in the key spots (CDI, looking at you more than most here). My biggest pet peeve is a K with a man on 3rd and less than 2 down, and it seems like we’ve seen a lot of those lately. At the beginning of the year, too many looking Ks. Now, we’ve got the fellas chasing all over the place. I know the stat-crew will crucify any suggestion of “clutch” hitting, but I think that has been a real flaw in a lot of these tight losses, some dudes are just trying too hard in key situations (or, in Tulo’s case, some guys can’t hit a bigtime fastball in a key spot). As was mentioned by someone last night, losing 6 games in the last few weeks where we hold opponents to 4 or less? Man, some days I just really miss the Blake Street boys. That would never have happend under Bichette’s watch. Whatever, the point is a good one — MORE HITS needed.
agree...
with 1.5 years left before FA a better comparison is Texeira—remember what he got in return. I think the Blue Jays are hoping for a big return and don’t need to settle for less. If I were O’Dowd, I’d give them a call, but I wouldn’t expect that the price is anywhere near what the Rockies can afford in terms of prospects in return.
As for Matzek, the Rockies should make a serious effort and make a generous offer, but don’t go crazy. I applaud the strategy of drafting the best available player and making a serious offer rather than letting him fall to some team with deep pockets that will just meet his (crazy) stated demands (“precedent setting”). It is in Matzek’s best financial interest to sign, but if he really wants to give up 4+ million to play in Oregon with the hope of getting more later, then let him go. The Rockies—at worst—will get a high pick next year. I really think this was a smart risk taken by the Rockies and if he doesn’t sign it shouldn’t be taken as a sign that they took him “DIDN’T have to sign and pay a #1”. I’d do it again next year with the protected pick—teams need to realize that the compensatory pick is great leverage and they should use it.
by DenverBears on Jul 12, 2009 10:52 AM MDT up reply actions
I dig what you are saying re Matzek
but I’m just not concerned about precedent or a few million. I’m concerned about fielding the best team possible, and I think that Matzek-level guys are the way to make that happen. To me, letting him go is no better (and possibly worse) than a Reynolds-type deal. And, more importantly, we cannot claim to make a “fair” offer when we knew going in the kid wanted to get paid above slot. If you don’t intend to seriously pursue him, you fall into Redhawk’s theory that they just wanted to save some cash. And if that is true, i reiterate my suggestion that DOD should be gone.
It's not yet time to worry about Matzek
Over the past couple of years, MLB has usually held off on approving over-slot signing bonuses until a few days before the signing deadline. And we KNOW Matzek is going to sign for over slot, if he signs at all. But he won’t be signed until August in any case.
Absorbent ransom?
How will that be determined? A dunk tank? If, say, Chacin floats, the Jays don’t want him (but he’s then a witch. right?)
And, as proven time and again, ESPN is only aware of two MLB clubs: Yanks and Red Sox.
Cameron on Rios
Cameron on Rios. He’s far from alone in not thinking it’s a bad contract (and obviously isn’t in the same ballpark as Wells’s). It’s longer than I’d be comfy with, but in its last guaranteed year, 2014, Rios will be 33. He’s a pretty athletic player to be done at that age, though obviously there could be an injury.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
I think I'm in the minority in the thought that the Phillies don't have enough to get Halladay.
I don’t think their prospects are as valuable to Toronto as everybody seems to be suggesting. If this were the Giants trying to trade Lincecum, it’s another story, the guys the Phillies have would be a great match, but that Philly system is outfielder and pitching heavy, and Toronto’s already relatively strong in those categories. This is probably part of why you’re seeing more articles that are skeptical that he gets moved.
The Phillies
have two pluses going for them as leaders for Halladay: 1) the ability to take on payroll 2) they are fairly close to ESPN in Bristol, CT
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
apparently
their prospects (like Drabek) are that good, and are willing to surrender them. So I guess that’s a third plus
by bballrox4717 on Jul 12, 2009 8:34 PM MDT up reply actions
Funny how these things go
Column in the LA times today suggesting the Dodgers should trade R. Martin and two high-upside, low minors prospects and that would be enough. And my first thought was “no way they trade with LA without getting Kershaw back.” I don’t know if Toronto would want Uball from us (in which case I say no) but if they want pretty much any other pitcher we should be listening.
And we should sign Matzek no matter what else we do with the big club. Matzek should be unrelated to big-club doings from a general standpoint, and unless he asks for Strasburg money should be an absolute lock or DOD should submit his resignation.
Atkins and Torrerabla
It’s looking life if we trade these guys earlier in the season that the Rockies could have a chance at landing Haliday but whatever. Personally, I would be fan of just getting Halliday for 1 1/2 seasons just for draft compensation picks and chance to have one heck of rotation.
On an unrelated note. I know that the bullpen is a big issue but maybe we could work a 3 way trade with the Blue Jays give them Spillys for a bullpen arm and we take Alex Rios and trade him to some other 3rd team and split his salary.
by lizardlad01 on Jul 12, 2009 10:41 AM MDT up reply actions
Not getting the Atkins/Torrealba thing.
Seems like the “For Sale” sign’s been out on those two guys since last off-season with no takers.
I wish we could have...
our own sucker to take those two of our hands but apperently its not. P.T. Barnum lied, there isn’t a sucker born every minute. Although Barry Zito and the Giants might disagree.
by lizardlad01 on Jul 12, 2009 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions
Atkins/Torrealba probably wouldn't have interested Toronto at any point since about 2006
So I hope you aren’t suggesting that they would have landed the Blue Jays ace. As to your other trade proposal, why not just trade Spilborghs for a bullpen arm and not worry about Rios? It seems like you’d be adding some needless expense to the payroll at that point.
Alright landing the Rockies getting Halliday...
the odds of that happening are about as likely as Juan Pierre hitting a homerun in San Francisco. Not going to happen.
However, a three team trade with the….
Blue Jays….trade Scotts Down and Alex RIos
Rockies …. give up a AAA and Low A prospect and RIo’s contract
Cardinals…then take Rio’s and his contract and give to the Rockies a prospect
win-win-win scenario
Rockies get bullpen help
Cardinals gets a decent outfielder fairly cheaply
Toronto gets salary relief and decent prospects.
Still…though it’s unlikely to happen because it complicated but I think its one of the better trade ideas for the Rockies to do.
by lizardlad01 on Jul 12, 2009 11:34 AM MDT up reply actions
It's overly complicated still...
So let’s see:
Jays give up 2 MLB players worth 2.2 wins above replacement or $9.6 million (or about exactly equal to what they make in an entire year) thus far this season.
The Rockies give up one prospect (2 prospects to the Jays minus one prospect from the Cardinals).
The Cardinals give up a boatload of money and a prospect.
The Rockies get one highly effective, underpaid MLB reliever.
The Cardinals get one effective MLB outfielder that’s also a long term contract burden.
The Blue Jays get two unnamed, unvalued prospects but out of Rios’ contract
I see these proposals on message boards a lot where fans of one team insert themselves into a discussion of an available player even though there is no need on that team for said player. They do it because they think they’ve found a match with another team for that player and are using their favorite team as the middle man who they hope, in essence, will get a finder’s fee of some sort. It’s almost always the case that the two primary trading teams have a better option in doing a trade by themselves without the middle team, though. That’s the case here. The Cardinals trade a prospect or two for Rios and his contract and they and the Jays would be happy if that’s all they wanted. The Jays don’t have to give up Downs so cheaply that way. Downs is the finder fee in your scenario and a pretty hefty one at that considering his value.
....Raining on my parade....
Do you think the Cardinals would be interested in parting with one of their bullpen arms for Spilly or Smith?
This, I do see as possible.
Smith is probably even more valuable than that given his cheap cost for the next few years. Spilly will be worth a little less as he goes into arbitration.
The Jays won't trade him
They are already getting major backlash from fans. and J.P. said it himself " if someone will pay you 1 mil for you 500k house of course you sell" There is a huge difference between 1.5 years left and .5 and the Jays will only trade this guy him someone will drastically overpay. L.A. won’t get anywhere without Kershaw in the deal and we won’t without the players Troy mentioned.
I’m certain an exploritory call was made the Rox weretold what it wouldd take and said pass. The only discount you would get for Halladay is if you took Rios also that’s what 30 mil in payroll?
Smith at 1st
…such as Seth Smith doing some work at first base
Whoa. So he is John Vander Wal.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
oh no
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 12, 2009 11:25 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Because that's where we need him to play.
I don’t really hear any calls to cut into Todd’s playing time.
Uggh
I think this offense is making me sick. And what happens if the starting rotation comes back down to earth? I’m still struggling to envision more that 85 wins out of this team. We really to go on another tear after the all star break. And I’m sorry Tulo but this is not a playoff team absent a trade. Or we could look at internal options. Also it might help if the Giants lost a game ever.
The Giants have been taking care of business in their 10 game homestand.
Doing exactly what a contending team should. The Rockies? Not so much.
Yeah
I feel bad but I’m hoping that Cain is out for a bit. Although that might unleash MadBum on the world.
yea i never want to wish injury upon anybody
but i hope Cain ends up being out for awhile even though it will only be a wk or 2 wk thing
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jul 12, 2009 11:29 AM MDT up reply actions
i think
They are definitely a playoff team if they make a trade, and they could sneak in without under special circumstances. Once the giants sdd a bat though…
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 12, 2009 11:27 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
as much as it is early in the season
today is a MUST win for me…also with a win they would be where i wanted them to be before the road trip and homestand and as long as they go 6-4 out of the break going into the mets series i will be fine with 53-45…just got to keep winning series’s or trips/stands…
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
If you go 6-4 on a ten game homestand while the team in the playoff chase ahead of you goes 8-2,
That’s not exactly where I wanted them. If we want to make the playoffs, the team has to play better than this.
well yeah the Giants aren't going to continue this pace though
it has been very frustrating this series don’t get me wrong…especially since the Giants have been winning toppled with our losses.
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jul 12, 2009 11:20 AM MDT up reply actions
My worry
is the Rockies had an amazing June, which made up for a terrible April and May, to get them to the team I thought they were before the season. Which is a .500 team, that with a little luck could be above .500 and in a playoff race, but ultimately falling short.
This team’s biggest need is another hitter. Offensively the Rockies need an upgrade at 2nd, 3rd, LF and CF, and maybe Catcher…the problem is that’s not going to happen unless the players already there step up and produce more. Except 2nd…there may be (and may not be)and up grade with the bat. Personally I’ve seen Barmes chase too many 2 strike fastballs and sliders 2 feet off the plate to think he’s irreplaceable.
Mediocrity isn’t bad, but it’s not good enough this year to get into the playoffs.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
I thought about this last night
I think we need to do the following:
1)Bring up EY2 and send down Q. I know he is not as versatile, but I think bringing him up and slowly getting him late inning ABs and pinch running situations is fine. Its not like we are talking about a superprospect to ruin here.
2)Seth Smith needs more ABs. He scares the hell out of me in the outfield but a 60 OPS+ from CarGo is not going to get it done. Consider Matt Murton if CarGo needs to play everyday at the Springs.
3)Continue to rustle the bushes for bullpen help. And be willing to give up prospects to do it.
yeah i agree with all 3 points
although Seth Smith might be another Spilly meaning if he starts to play just about every day he will get exposed…but yeah even so he is a much better hitter right now than Cargo.
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jul 12, 2009 11:32 AM MDT up reply actions
And also
Going by OPS+, LF and CF are the only spots where we currently have a below-average offensive player, and Smitty and his 132 OPS+ can solve one of those spots.
LF
is the least demanding defensive outfield position, though having two butchers in the same outfield scares me. If Smith started, Fowler would have to cover a LOT of ground for Hawpe and Smith. Think of all the runs CarGo has saved; I think it makes up for a few mistakes at the plate, though watching him fail at big situations irks me all the time, but haven’t we sucked with RISP all year? I don’t think he’s the problem, I think that we need a new philosophy with RISP positions; while Tracy has helped, he hasn’t made the Rockies offense top-level like it should be. If you notice with CarGo, he walks more and strikes out less than he did in Oakland; there’s improvement, and there’s no reason why his average shouldn’t be higher than it was at Oakland. The same goes with Stewart, Fowler, Tulo, and Iannetta; we see flashes of brilliance (they all have great power numbers except Fowler, and besides Stewart, they all walk a lot) but the hits don’t show up, especially with runners on, and strike out a ton. It sickens me to see the hitters not living up, so when people demand for a bat, I believe it won’t help. Smith over CarGo obviously makes the most sense, but makes our outfield defense that much worse.
by bballrox4717 on Jul 12, 2009 8:30 PM MDT up reply actions
Hoffman replaces Broxton
Looks like Hoffman will replace Broxton on the AS team. I figured this would happen. I guess the all-time save leader having a good year is too much to resist. Due to a heavier workload and Hoffman missing the 1st 18 games on the DL, Street has made 16 more appearances and pitched 13 more innings.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
oh well
that’s fine with me i rather have Street rest and be fully ready to go for the 2nd half…let Hoffman have his last all star game appearance (in all likely hood).
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jul 12, 2009 11:49 AM MDT up reply actions
I like people who have sense.
Ever since Cook’s arm got used up in the ASG last year, I’d be terrified if Street pitched, since he’s pitched a lot. Also, if Marquis pitches more than an inning, I’ll be calling for Manuel’s head, especially for his clear favoritism for his own players. (Howard, Werth)
For Hawpe, I see him getting 2 ABs then leaving, which I have no issue with.
I just don’t like ASG and Home Run Derby for stamina and health issues.
by bballrox4717 on Jul 12, 2009 8:19 PM MDT up reply actions
Clear favoritism
Still not as bad as Bob Brenly choosing Damian Miller and Junior Spivey earlier this decade
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 12, 2009 8:25 PM MDT up reply actions
It may not be
but choosing a flipping 4th first basemen and shying away from a true centerfielder like Kemp makes no sense at all, and it irks me incredibly.
by bballrox4717 on Jul 12, 2009 8:32 PM MDT up reply actions
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