Rockies Review: It's the All-Star break? Huh.
When I left the proceedings this afternoon, the Rockies were down 7-3 and had been spectacularly failing for the whole game. Seth Smith had paid back the favour of getting a start by grounding into a pair of painful double plays, and just to make sure he wouldn’t be alone in his misery, Tulo and Brad had done the same thing and confined their bombs to solo shots. Needless to say, the opening of this Review had a far more pessimistic tone, as I expected that they were going to complete what had been a generally underwhelming homestand. Coming back to find that Bradley finally acted like an All-Star after a generally underwhelming July was a very nice surprise (my reaction was to say, "What? Holy crap!" about ten times in a row) but as we close the first half at 47-41 (a remarkable figure considering previous efforts) there are still a number of matters that need to be addressed.
Remember those days when we were all carping that the schedule-makers were conspiring against us to keep us on the road? Well, it turns out that they may have been on to something, as the close of this ten-game homestand didn’t exactly leave us with the feeling that we can resoundingly defend our turf. The Braves were playing hot baseball coming into the series and we were frankly lucky to salvage a split, but losing two of three to the cellar-dwelling Diamondbacks and having to squeak out a sweep over the comically inept Nationals wasn’t grounds for self-confidence. The offense, apparently insulted that I counted them a secondary problem in last week’s Review, decided to check in for work only if they felt like it. Missing opportunities became endemic. A small village was left on the basepaths. And, like the first half of today’s game, backwards K's and first-pitch swinging reared their ugly heads. Maybe everyone was just eager to get to Disneyland.
There’s also still the fact that Jason Hammel needs to figure out how to pitch at Coors Field, effective a few months ago, and that we need to decide how long is too long to let Carlos Gonzalez unlock his considerable tool-kit while we’re trying to compete. His defense is impressive, but his offense isn’t anywhere near the world-beating levels he displayed at the Springs. To put it politely, he’s been a bit of a drag. As it turns out, Huston Street is the most valuable return (at least for this season) from the Holliday trade. It’s far, far too early to write Gonzalez off, but he struggled last year in his look-see with Oakland, and he hasn’t inspired confidence at the plate thus far. (CarGo offensive strategy: If in doubt, swing). He’s going to have to do something with that tantalizing potential if he wants to keep earning starts.
We’ve got a tight race and at least for the short term, Seth Smith (redeeming himself nicely with a two-run homer and the single to set up Brad’s game-winning double) may offer more offensive firepower. In my humble opinion, valuing defensive potential more, while valid, tends to work out like the "prevent defense" in the NFL. AKA, it usually backfires. In our current situation, in the race we’re in, and with our pitching staff, we may require a better hitter at the expense of a slight drop-off in defense. (And hey, Smith saved Jason Marquis’ bacon in a major way last night with a running, against-the-wall catch to rob Ryan Church of either a bases-clearing double or a grand salami. Not that it ultimately did much good in terms of winning the game. But there it is).
There’s plenty to grouse about, of course. But that shouldn’t take away from the fact that we are 47-41, two games out of a Wild Card spot, and performing frankly miles ahead of what everyone would have thought after the first quarter of the season. The bullpen, a serious Achilles heel last week, chipped in with six innings of mostly competent work today, the only blemish being a two-run homer allowed by Jorge de la Rosa. Matt Daley contributed two scoreless innings, Juan Rincon had a scoreless frame with two K’s, and Huston Street whipped through a 1-2-3 ninth to set up Hawpe’s last-minute heroics. Not to say that I’m necessarily trusting them any more, especially since Matt Belisle has rejoined the proceedings after Alan Embree’s possibly career-ending injury, and I still think that they should make a trade before the deadline to add a middle-relief arm. (Odds of that? Low).
But in the end, they had an exhilarating win to close out a roller-coaster first-half, and there are three days of All-Star proceedings to alleviate some of the stress before we embark on the likely-to-be-more-stressful second half. We’ll even have two representatives, one of whom will be starting. We’ll have a chance to not think about the daily heart attack that is Rockies baseball. We’ll watch Albert Pujols and company launch a few moonshots in the Derby and wonder if this is the year that the NL will finally win. And then it will be time for the real stretch run. Are the Rockies going to be ready? Who knows. This team isn't exactly synonymous with either consistency or reliability. But for now, they can feel reasonably proud of what they’ve done to get there.
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I love me some Dinger
in left field.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
hahah
Dingerrrrr
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jul 12, 2009 8:54 PM MDT up reply actions
He's a six-tool player.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
yes sirrr
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jul 12, 2009 9:02 PM MDT up reply actions
I concur, Dinger for president!
"Man, this is baseball, you gotta stop thinking! Just have fun."
The Sandlot (1993) – Benny Rodriguez (Mike Vitar)
by AtkinsandTulofan on Jul 12, 2009 8:54 PM MDT up reply actions
Dinger
probably has as good a shot at the GOP nomination in 2012 as anyone.
by J. Henry Waugh on Jul 12, 2009 10:47 PM MDT up reply actions
I thought triceratops were supposed to have great short bursts of speed
but Dinger looks slow. Comp = Adam Dunn?
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Smith/Spilly platoon
This is a close one. If the Rockies weren’t close, it would be CarGo. He has the talent to be really good. Since they are so close, they need to send him back down and bring Matt Murton back up.
Fowler has played well enough that he takes this decision away.
I don’t buy the “Defense” angle. One of the reasons Barmis is at second and Stewart is at third is because of their defense. If CarGo’s defense was good enough to compensate for his offense, then I would want CarGo. Nobody’s defense is that good though.
A S&S left field would be very strong.
i agree with that
because both Smith and Spilly are like the same player them playing everyday would not be good they get exposed so why not half n half….good idea.
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jul 12, 2009 9:03 PM MDT up reply actions
It's not as if we have a lug in CF or anything
We don’t especially need a guy with great speed in LF, though it is a luxury. Smith isn’t terrible on defense either…a positive 3.1 fielding which is third most valuable on the team overall behind Spilborghs and Barmes, and his UZR/150 in LF is 16.6, far better than CarGo’s -6.7.
I know that there are sample size and statistical anomalies abound with defensive statistics, but I’m not sure I buy that CarGo is ridiculously better than Seth defensively, certainly not close to the amount in which Smith whips CarGo with the bat.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 12, 2009 10:11 PM MDT up reply actions
i vote dinger
if dinger = a well balanced rotation including Spilly, Smith, CarGo, and maybe Murton.
if you're reading this, it means my undying support for your team will result in its failure.
Waive Dinger, purchase the contract of Socks the Fox and platoon Dixie and Spilly in left.
I’m afraid that we can’t afford to wait for Carlos to find his way against ML pitching staffs.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
We spilly Dinger more.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
yeah well i dinger spilly more
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 13, 2009 11:15 AM MDT up reply actions
No comment.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Comment.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 13, 2009 3:43 PM MDT up reply actions
I love Spilly and Seth...
so dinger was the option that seemed most like platoon
"Man, this is baseball, you gotta stop thinking! Just have fun."
The Sandlot (1993) – Benny Rodriguez (Mike Vitar)
by AtkinsandTulofan on Jul 12, 2009 9:41 PM MDT up reply actions
Spilly pulls ahead by 2 votes!
Take that, stupid purple dinosaur!!!!
by Rockie4Ever on Jul 12, 2009 10:36 PM MDT up reply actions
Dinger is clearly the answer to the left field question
If by left field question, you mean “who should be drawn and quartered in left field for our entertainment?”.
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Yes
the Rockies “Futures” looked good, and it’s time to bring up Eric Young Jr, I totally agree…..um wait
Excuse me…..am I in the right thread? Oh…..sorry
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
What about EY2 as a reserve, taking Q's spot
IMO PR goes around in circles re. EY2 replacing Barmes as a starter this season. But others have suggested risking losing Q to waivers or a refused outright assignment and bringing up EY2 as a bench player. Has that one been beaten to death yet?
If I’ve read folks right the pro’s are:
—potential to use EY2’s speed on the bases, at least as a pinch runner
—get EY2’s feet wet in the majors with an eye on competing for playing time next year
—insurance against a Barmes hella-slump
—Q’s barely playing anyway, and if Tulo gets hurt, Barmes can slide over and EY2 can fill in at 2nd.
—when Q has had to play regularly, he hasn’t hit very well, so putting EY2 in that position doesn’t seem to risk much, but could mean a gain if he can bring his OBP and basestealing skills along
Some of the CON’s:
—risk of rookie mistakes/non-productivity/growing pains
—possibly not ready defensively (have we heard any updates on this?)
—disturbing a good thing by potentially moving Barmes around
—team might not want to risk losing Q in case of an extended absence by Tulo or Barmes
—once EY2’s foot is in the door, PR will crash due to all the posts to “start EY2!”
—Frazier, upon seeing EY’s name in the lineup, will become confused and will pass out, and he is the only one who knows the combination to the humidor
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
This pretty much sums it up
I don’t think Q would be claimed if he was sent to the Springs. I’d assume he would take the assignment as well, knowing he was the only SS back up if Barmes or Tulo got hurt.
And you failed to mention Dinger. I’m not sure he would have the footwork at 2nd…but he’s smaller then Jeff Kent.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
IIRC
Johnny Herrera can back up SS and 2B as well.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 13, 2009 11:16 AM MDT up reply actions
Then you take Q off the 40 to add Johnny?
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
no I'm saying that if we needed emergency backup
we have Herrerra available, if Q is claimed in interest of us bringing EYJ up
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 14, 2009 9:27 AM MDT up reply actions
Smith is the answer
Carlos is lost at the plate. We talk about defense, but really it’s not like we are talking about SS here, it’s left field. Every now and then a ball is hit that is hard to reach in left but almost 85% of the time they are just pop flys. There shouldn’t be any more argument after today. Smith needs to be the starter.
Lost in the LF debate,
is the question of a deadline trade for some bullpen help. As I see it, our pen has been unreliable to say the least. I really don’t think Belisle is the long-term answer here. DoD, at least publicly, has made it appear as though the Rox are not going to be part of the trade market. This raises some alarms for me, as we are entering the second half of the season firmly in the playoff chase. Any thoughts, Rowbots?
As for LF, I spilly both Dixie and Spilly. A platoon of the two would suit me just fine. CarGo, while obviously having some great tools, is short of a full belt until he learns how to hit big leagues pitching. If we were out of things, I might say play him. But as the opposite is true, send him back to the Springs until call-ups in Sept.
Free Seth Smith, damnit!
Expectations for Carlos Gonzalez
Would it help to consider what people’s expectations for CarGon are? His slash line at the Springs was .342 avg / .417 OBP / .626 SLG. I remember a lot of people advocating for his recall in May. Maybe some were hoping for Hawpe-like #’s based on that; or maybe some were just hoping for any change from those dreadful days.
I’m not sure what the MLE’s at minorleaguesplits are based on, but I imagine they’re at least marcels. The MLE for that line in Coors is .292 / .354 /.504
Various pre-season projections for Spilly, Smith and Murton are all pretty close. Generally OBP’s in the .350-360 range (CHONE’s OBP for Spilly is .376) with SLG’s around the .450 range (most are a tad lower for Murton).
Pre-season projections for CarGon were pretty ugly, as they’re based on his games with Oakland, and his previous minor league seasons, which aren’t nearly as good as his two months at the Springs. CHONE’s .317 OBP and .422 SLG was most optimistic (I don’t have access to PECOTA, so I have no idea about that).
Basically, even if one believes CarGon made a developmental leap at the Springs, the projections/MLE’s for the 4 OF’s are close enough that they’re likely within the range of error of the projections and thus evaluations of defense, baserunning, platooning and of course the judgment of the Rockies coaches, scouts and other dev people become even more important factors.
I like a platoon of Spilly and Smith. I’d like to see what Smith can do with regular time given how strong his start was this season. I honestly don’t know how much time to allow CarGon. IMO he’s had enough time for now but perhaps the Rockies staff strongly feels as if he improved at the Springs and can replicate that on the big league level.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
I suspect
there’s added pressure on O’Dowd & the FO to give Gonzalez every opportunity to succeed because he was the centerpiece of the Holliday deal. Woody Paige & Mike Kiszla might write mean things about them if CarGo is deemed to be a failed prospect.
by J. Henry Waugh on Jul 12, 2009 10:42 PM MDT up reply actions
Huston Street's return to form helps create an excuse to circumvent that constraint.
But knowing those two authors, they’ll ignore Street and deem the trade a failure anyway.
by Greg Stanwood on Jul 12, 2009 11:28 PM MDT up reply actions
True on both counts. Or they could point to Holliday's 2009, or Marquis
While I wouldn’t be surprised if the FO wanted CarGon to get regular time in the majors, I would be surprised if it was for PR purposes. I assume they really believe he can play and felt it was time to find out.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Good point
… but part of a GM’s job is to ignore that crap and do what’s right. I think O’Dowd’s done well not worrying what writers say.
Plus, CarGo is young and couldn’t possibly be considered a failure at this point (oops, I guess I already forgot about Kiszla, didn’t I?). Personally, I think CarGo should’ve been sent down about four games ago—the man needs him some Springs time and the Rocks can’t afford to waste at-bats everytime he walks to the plate. I like Silverblood’s idea of shooting for more offense.
I agree with the many people on here that say he needs to get ML ABs to work it out...
… but at the same time, sending him down at this point would do three good things:
1.) We’re in a wild card race. We need offense. Right now, we don’t have the luxury of letting him take as many ABs as he needs to get his swing. Putting Seth/Spilly in there, who have both proven that they’ve got the ability to hit, just gives us a flat out better chance of winning. Yes, we’ve got a crazy W-L record with CarGo starting, but how many games can you honestly say he was the cause of the win?
2.) By going down to the minors, chances are Carlos’ bat would probably explode from all the hits, which would be a major confidence booster. Not 100% sure on this, but my guess is that the slump he’s in right now is lowering his confidence, therefore making the slump even worse. Going down to the Springs and reassuring himself that, yes, he can hit, might be just what he needs at this point.
3.) We can all stop having heart attacks when he comes up to bat in an important situation. With the economy failing enough as it is, it’s probably not wise to be killing the people that are already watching the game.
The biggest downside is that CarGo will not be able to continue to adjust to major league pitching down there.
But the obvious response is that he won’t be able to do that off the bench, either. I’d like to see him optioned down.
by Greg Stanwood on Jul 13, 2009 6:53 AM MDT up reply actions
Amen!
i had this discussion with my dad while we were at the game on thursday and he kept saying that CarGo has too much this and too much that to be sent down. i think i finally won him over by saying that i’m a lot less concerned about CarGo than i am the Rockies… well, that and the fact that CarGo went 0-4 that night. :-(
its the platoon of murton and smith.
another possible platoon: call up EY2 and platoon him with barmes at 2nd. it could be cleric byung
by Jay Doubleyou on Jul 13, 2009 2:03 AM MDT up reply actions
If he came up this year
I’d spot start him vs. RHP’s, but wouldn’t go this full route. Interesting option for next year, though, if Barmes is still around. After all the talk of “he’s the starting secondbaseman and that mean old Clint would never see it that way,” I wonder what they do with him. If they keep him, it would be hard to see them cutting his starts to lefties only.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
The only problem with that is, so did CarGo
Both have absolutely torn up the minors. CarGo gets his shot, and he blows it. What if Murton’s the same way?
Spilly/Seth platoon with the occasional Murton start until we know he is for real or not. That’s the safest way to go. Not saying it’s the right way, but the safest.
Murton already had one shot, and performed decently for a 5th OF
He wouldn’t have been booted from the team had CarGo not been beating down the door. It can be legitimately argued that CarGo has blown his first shot with the Rox, justifying a return for Murton.
by Greg Stanwood on Jul 13, 2009 6:55 AM MDT up reply actions
I'd play Spilly over Murton
They’re likely close with the bat, but for me, Spilly’s D and role with the team get the edge. If someone were hurt or traded I’m sure he could step in and perform decently.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
I would keep Cargo
With the team but play him less. Maybe 1-2 time in left and center if Dex needs a day off. If the team wasn’t in contention, or they drop out you play him everyday and live with it. Murton is not in the long term future plans so he is out of the equation for me. And while Seth has some clutch hits, he isn’t a 320 guy everyday either. Barmes is you second baseman this year, we don’t need wholesale changes mid season to position players.
I have no confidence in Belisle being on the team and if we are going to win the WC we must get another quality BP arm. The Rincon/Peralta thing isn’t going to work and we are rolling the dice with Corpas who could go down again at any time.
Nickname for Set Smith
Drew Goodman mentioned a good nickname for Seth Smith during yesterday’s game. I was not in the gamethread and I have not had time to go read it, but I would like to formally nominate “Late Night” as Seth Smith’s new nickname due do his almost .500 batting average after the 7th inning. If this has already been done then please accept my nomination as a second or third or whater number we are on.
What if the hokey pokey is what it is all about after all????
Back under Hurdle
Failing players were often given a couple of games off to work things out. Why not bench Cargo for 5 games or so and let him work exclusively with Baylor during that time, and then let him come back and get some regular playing time. If he doesn’t show improvement then it’s time to either keep him as a defensive reserve or send him down. It didn’t take Tracy long to bench Atkins and place Stewart at 3rd, so I don’t know why the lf problem has dragged on like it has
Here's to hoping Francis has a speedy recovery...
I'd wager it's pressure from upstairs
The thing is we have 2 ends of the spectrum. It’s either “everyone plays” little league ball, or it’s “THESE ARE THE STARTERS /stone”
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 13, 2009 1:49 PM MDT up reply actions

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