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No Surrender, No Retreat

Here we are at the midway point of the season, a critical time for the Rockies. Only five times before (1995, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2007) have the Rockies been at or above .500 entering the All-Star Break. Of those five times, the Rockies finished the season above .500 three times ('95, '00, '07). Of those three times, twice did the Rockies make the playoffs ('95, '07). Once did they make the World Series ('07). Zero is still the number for World Series championships.

The second half of this season has yet to be written, obviously, so we don't know where this one falls yet; however, there's one thing to say about the next two and a half months:

NO SURRENDER, NO RETREAT

No surrender, no retreat? Absolutely. First, a little explanation about that line. It comes from an episode of Babylon 5 with that title. Captain John Sheridan of Babylon 5 can no longer stand by and watch the tyrannical Earth Alliance government order the destruction of civilian ships. He decides to make a stand at Proxima 3. Ultimately, his fleet does battle against the Earth Alliance military that he nobly served. From that point forward, there's no taking back what he started. The liberation of Earth and its colonies is the only acceptable result--anything less is failure.

The Rockies have reached that point. They were dead for the first two months of the season (did I mention that John Sheridan died and came back to life. Twice.) and then received a breath of fresh life with the removal of Clint Hurdle and the ascension of Jim Tracy (John Sheridan really did receive a breath of new life, as Lorien, the first sentient being to ever exist, was able to transfer life energy back into Sheridan. Twice.). That started something good and there's no turning back from that now. The Rockies can't give up on what they're doing, they can't retreat from the playoff race. They're in it to win it (uh, now I'm borrowing lines from The West Wing).

So, I leave it to everyone here: What predictions do we have for the players and for the team as a whole?

As a starting point, let's look at a few of Rox Girl's preseason predictions from January 2 after the jump.

Star-divide

Garrett Atkins - Will regain some lost discipline and shed his free swinging ways. In 2006 and 2007, Atkins drew walks in at least 10% of his plate appearances, in 2008 that number was down to 6.1%. If he wants to restore his value before he hits free agency after the 2010 season, he'll have to show himself to be a complete offensive player once more.

He did gain some of the plate discipline back (9.7%), but everything else . . .  yeah.

Carlos Gonzalez - Will find the fertile field we call Security Service cures all his contact and discipline woes like a revivalist tent preacher.

Carlos Gonzalez could not be contained with the Sky Sox. The same cannot be said while with the Rockies.

Ubaldo Jimenez - Will emerge as the NL West's next great ace.

He's getting there, even if he doesn't receive that much attention.

Jason Marquis (pending) - Will teach U-ball how to hit.

Who knows if Marquis has made any difference, but U-Ball does know how to hit now. I was tempted to edit the entry and make it into "Will lead the league in wins at the All-Star Break."

Ian Stewart - Will drive in the winning run when the Rockies clinch the NL West.

Still could happen.

NO SURRENDER, NO RETREAT

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Prediction: .500

And no Rocktober, as at least one of the other Wild Card strugglers will come alive (and the Giants probably won’t screw it up).

by biondino on Jul 13, 2009 8:34 AM MDT reply actions  

Well good morning, little miss sunshine...

The Giants will screw it up, and the Rockies will have a better than .500 post All-Star record. The other part about one of the strugglers coming alive, I agree with. I think it’s Milwaukee, but that Atlanta team isn’t out of the question. I don’t know if they rebound enough to overtake us, though. This is a prediction.

by Rox Girl on Jul 13, 2009 8:48 AM MDT up reply actions  

Oh come on

Predicting .500 and an 87-win season is hardly doom- (not DOOM-) mongering. And I don’t know if it will be just one of the water-treaders either – there are several quality sides below us, and in this crazy game the only thing that’s actively impeding a rally from multiples is the fact that they all have to play each other.

I think the Rox of the last fortnight are the real Rockies. My big worry is that a slump – and it’s been a long time since we had one, in results terms at least – could hit confidence hard. Injuries have also been relatively kind to us and the loss of, say, Cookie or Bradley could be a real problem.

But ultimately, this is all just instinct, and a personal tendency to the mean. I hope you guys are all right, and we sweep our way to the WS again!

by biondino on Jul 13, 2009 10:01 AM MDT up reply actions  

84 wins

fwiw, if they play .500 ball exactly after the break, they end up with 84 wins, and surely will miss out on the party.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 13, 2009 10:18 AM MDT up reply actions  

Much as that isn't a playoff spot, and a disappointing finish

Me being the silver-lining guy, I’d be pleased with a finish like that, especially after the start we had. Signs of good things to come.

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 13, 2009 11:39 AM MDT up reply actions  

I'd be disappointed

Could be signs of good things to come, but you know, a bird in the hand…not that this bird is in hand, but the team is in a good position.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 13, 2009 1:29 PM MDT up reply actions  

I think we're on the same page here

But we need to add pieces to plug holes if we really want to win this thing.

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 13, 2009 1:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

Prediction: Wild Card Winner

88 wins is what i can see us getting looking at the schedule….let’s do it boys!!

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

by TuLoRocks2008 on Jul 13, 2009 8:38 AM MDT reply actions  

Uhm.., do we need to pull out a dictionary and distinguish the difference between the words

RESOLUTION and PREDICTION?

But still, the Rockies on a whole are doing better at those resolutions than I’m doing at mine.

by Rox Girl on Jul 13, 2009 8:42 AM MDT reply actions  

You resolved

that 2009 would be different. You’re predictions were how that resolution would be fulfilled.

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jul 13, 2009 8:58 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions  

Uhm... not exactly..
My wishes for the Rockies new year in 2009. Just like with my own New Year’s resolutions, some of these will be more realistic than others, some will be forgotten two weeks from now as silly wishful thinking, but hopefully a few will come about in reality:

Yeah, I’m still not seeing “prediction” in that… Still, my wish is pretty close with the Toddfather.

by Rox Girl on Jul 13, 2009 10:33 AM MDT up reply actions  

No Surrender

well, it’s also a movie with Jean Claude Van Damme (no not the “Twice the Van Damme-age” one), and a line from Bruce Springsteen No Surrender both predate Babylon 5 but hey, bonus points for the nerdness.

Prediction: um…..I really don’t know. I feel this team is like a long distance runner that sprinted at the wrong time. I think it has issues. It needs to pick it up when it comes to hitting and scoring runs consistently. I’m very worried about the bullpen, and I’m not real crazy about JDLR and Hammel at the back end of the rotation and I worry Marquis will fade like he has in the past. BUT when I look around the competition have their issues as well.

To make a playoff kick, some one usually has to step up and have a career year. So here’s a prediction: Smith adds punch and ignites the offense, EY2 adds a dynamic off the bench, Morales is nails in the bullpen until a starter gets hurt and Morales steps into the rotation for a couple weeks in August. Marquis doesn’t fade, and has a career year, and gets mentioned for the Cy Young. Rockies take over 1st in the Wild Card on Sept the 16th after sweeping the Giants in San Francisco, then hold on, with a nice home stand

Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!

by Redhawk on Jul 13, 2009 9:03 AM MDT reply actions  

"No Surrender"

is a tune sung by British nationalist idiots and directed at the IRA. Now I’m no fan of the latter either, but out of context it’s not a phrase you want to use in polite society over these parts*

*France

by biondino on Jul 13, 2009 10:03 AM MDT up reply actions  

Better than that.

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jul 13, 2009 10:56 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions  

Is he related to this guy?

Nerd song linkage

And now I have every rowbot signing this song for the rest of the day!

Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!

by Redhawk on Jul 13, 2009 11:00 AM MDT up reply actions  

I think they're well positioned.

It’s not a sure thing, naturally. If there weren’t worries about the 4 and 5th starter and how the #4 or 5 (park adjusted) offense schedules it runs, the team would be front runners and not wild card contenders (and you’re right about others teams’ problems – compare the other teams’ rotations). The only glaring hole has been the bullpen, and between Morales, Corpas and a possible trade there are good chances to shore it up a little. While it’s nice to ride the back of some guy having a career year (you could include Hawpe here, though, and Barmes and Marquis are also having their best seasons thus far), it’s also a strength that so many on the roster contribute.

I would feel a lot better, though, if the 8th inning guy(s) weren’t a guy with elbow chips backed up by a guy who was great but whose elbow problems have taken 3 mph off his fastball (Rincon) and a guy (Peralta) whose 4.34 ERA this season is close to his 4.45 career mark entering the season, and that’s without yet exhibiting his career HR rate of 1.4 per 9. If Peralta starts surrendering HR’s at his old rate, look out. Maybe Morales can step into the role.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 13, 2009 11:12 AM MDT up reply actions  

Herges

How about: Rockies pick up Matt Herges, he returns to ’07 form and bolsters Rockies bullpen?

by deacs on Jul 13, 2009 12:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

I don't know if you saw the Herges article in Counting Rocks

But it could be a smart move. Problem is, he’d probably just be the next “see what sticks” guy we toss into the pen.

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 13, 2009 1:51 PM MDT up reply actions  

Has there been any news on Herges?

I’m finding articles about the DFA, but not about where he ended up.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 13, 2009 2:03 PM MDT up reply actions  

no, but google him

click “news” and then check out the 2nd big link on the page (where the little links are all just the individual headlines)

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 13, 2009 2:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I saw that!

pretty cool.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 13, 2009 2:37 PM MDT up reply actions  

Predictions

-Marquis wins 19, finishes a distant 5th in Cy Young voting.
-Street snaps Rockies save record with 43.
-Tulo ends up with 27 homers but only a .265 average. Becomes most underrated shortstop in the game because his average isn’t higher.
-We keep Atkins and he enters a straight platoon with Stewart.
-We keep Spilborghs and he and Smith start to platoon in left field. Gonzalez is sent down to re-learn plate discipline.
-Fowler ends up with a .360-ish OBP and 30 steals.
-We trade two minor leaguers for John Grabow, who instantly becomes our third best reliever.
-We go 27-11 against the NL West the rest of the way.
-We win 88 games.
-The Giants win 87.
-See you at Coors for NLDS Game 3 October 8th.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on Jul 13, 2009 9:46 AM MDT reply actions  

If John Grabow becomes the 3rd best _anything_ for The Rockies

I will eat a chunk of raw onion slathered in mayonnaise. Two of my least favorite things

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 13, 2009 11:41 AM MDT up reply actions  

Not sure if you've noticed, but...

A) We don’t have a viable short-use lefty (Morales isn’t being shoehorned into LOOGY-hood, nor should he be)
B) Randy Flores sucks
C) The rest of our bullpen isn’t very good either
D) Randy Flores REALLY sucks.

Grabow’s holding lefties to a .588 OPS this season, and that’s with a .367 BABIP against them. He can get a righty now and again, too. I think he’s better than Peralta and Rincon, he’s a damn sight better than Daley, and Flores sucks. Now Morales and Corpas will probably (hopefully, in Manny’s case) pitch better than Grabow will, so maybe I should have said ‘fourth-best’, but whatever. We need a lefty. Grabow’s the one that I want.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on Jul 13, 2009 1:12 PM MDT up reply actions  

I guess the issue is will he be used just as a LOOGY

Or will he be an inning guy? Because I don’t want to watch what happens if he pitches here as an inning guy.

I concur with A-D, I just am not 100% sure of the need for A, as much as it may be touted as a key piece.

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 13, 2009 1:52 PM MDT up reply actions  

Considering the way Tracy uses his pen, I'd say there's a need.

You and I and other internet statheads might think the LOOGY is a waste of a roster spot, but if the guy in the dugout doesn’t, you might as well get him one that’s good instead of one that’s, you know, not Randy Flores.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on Jul 13, 2009 2:14 PM MDT up reply actions  

Well look at Embree

he was supposed to own lefties, but this season, lefties owned him on a new magical level of terrible.

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 13, 2009 2:17 PM MDT up reply actions  

I'm Feeling Good

About our chances to overtake the Giants. Why? Look at the disparity between the Giants home and away records. The Giants have a losing record on the road, and they’ve used home field advantage to it’s full…advantage. I don’t think that will continue, and the Rockies will get better at using Coors Field advantage.
We have 13 games remaining against the Giants, 7 at Coors.

Prediction:
Rocks go 3-3 at AT&T, and 6-1 at Coors, and end up overtaking the Giants for the wildcard.
Finish the season 4 games back of the Dodgers.
Meet the Dodgers in the NLCS…but I can’t predict the outcome ;-)

by ShadowPenguin on Jul 13, 2009 9:55 AM MDT reply actions  

With the Giants

having Cain dinged up, and RJ out right now, the Rockies should be looking ahead to a strong start after the break to capitalize on their weakness.
The biggest difference this year is no Hurdle. He had a way of getting his team into a losing streak and not having the answer on how to get them out of it (especially around the All-Star break). Tracy keeps the team on an even keel, and the team continues to play over.500 baseball without any big win streaks or losing streaks.

Spilly gets traded.
Morales and JDLR trade places.
Corpus comes back, fails, and is sent down for a refresher.
EY2 is called up, and Q refuses to report.
Tulo and CDI continue to improve at the plate.

by rockieprogress on Jul 13, 2009 10:41 AM MDT reply actions  

Corpus

I don’t know if he will “fail”, but I could see those pesky little bone chips being an issue and limiting his effectiveness. I would assume if he “fails” that he would go on the DL, and have the chips removed

Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!

by Redhawk on Jul 13, 2009 10:54 AM MDT up reply actions  

Who the hell is 'Corpus'

I’m not the spelling police, but can we at least get our own guys’ names right?

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on Jul 13, 2009 10:57 AM MDT up reply actions  

I think you just picked up the badge, deputy...

I’m glad you weren’t around Saturday night when I turned lotion into a Braves pitcher.

by Rox Girl on Jul 13, 2009 10:59 AM MDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that Jair Jergens has a real smooth feel

But hey, if I have to be the guy that makes sure we don’t talk about Manny Corpus or Jason Hammels or Ryan Spillborgs or Chris Ianatta or Troy Tulow5dsfgzki ever again… then I’ll uphold the oath to protect and serve.

(I’m mostly tongue and cheek here, but seeing ‘Corpus’ and ‘Hammels’ does kind of get annoying.)

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on Jul 13, 2009 11:08 AM MDT up reply actions  

My brother jokingly calls him

“Tuzlowski”

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 13, 2009 11:44 AM MDT up reply actions  

It's better than

Mike Shannon, who, around when Spilborghs was first called up, pronounced his name three different ways by the end of the first inning — and none of them were right.

by Tom (RFTN) on Jul 13, 2009 12:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

Dick Chase, the former Sky Sox radio guy,

just gave up and started calling him ‘Spiel-berg’ full time when Spilly was playing in the Springs.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on Jul 13, 2009 1:14 PM MDT up reply actions  

yeah now that I've resigned

We really, really need more bullpen though.

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 13, 2009 11:42 AM MDT up reply actions  

"No surrender, no retreat" reminds me of the quote from the great Lt. Col. Chesty Puller in Korean

“We’re not retreating. We’re attacking in a different direction”.

"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine

by pedalpusher on Jul 13, 2009 3:02 PM MDT reply actions  

Rockies go 42-32 in the second half, win 89 games.

Why? Home heavy schedule, mostly.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Jul 14, 2009 1:13 PM MDT reply actions  

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