Wednesday Pebble Report: Big things for Juan Nicasio on quiet night
by Russ Oates on Jul 15, 2009 6:52 AM MDT
in Pebble Report
Email
PrintTulsa, L 3-7
Keith Weiser allowed five runs on eight hits in five innings. Three of the runs scored on two homers. Edgmer Escalona allowed a two run homer in the seventh. Offensively, Rex Rundgren hit a homer and Darin Holcomb had his 18th double.
Asheville, W 4-0
Jordan Pacheco hit his 11th homer, a solo shot with Delta Cleary and Kiel Roling also driving in runs. Scott Robinson had three hits and stole two bases to reach 30 on the season. Juan Nicasio threw seven shutout innings and struck out eight. He had a GO-FO of 8-4.
18 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Is Nicasio the next Latin arm to get excited about?
Or is he just an older guy taking advantage of the SAL League? I see he is 22, so while not ancient, probably not someone we can get too excited about until he moves up a level or 2 by 2010. If he is moved to Modesto sometime this year and pitches well and gets the chance to start 2010 in Tulsa w/ Friedrich we might be able to get a little more excited about him. He has 62K’s in 54 IP’s , only 13 BB’s, and an avg against of .214, so he is dominating right now and it would be interesting to see him move to Modesto after 3-4 more starts. I’m not sure what is arsenal consists of, but he is doing well.
This is off the subject a little since Modesto didn’t play last night, but is it time to get seriously worried about Rike, or has that time already passed?
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
He's more than just an older guy taking advantage...
And some excitement is probably warranted just not too much. He should be on that second tier of RHP’s in the system with Graham and Billings but he’s not in the Chacin/Rogers league yet.
True, but
Rogers wasn’t too dissimilar to Nacasio in that he wasn’t a top tier pitching prospect after touring A Ball in a later start to his pitching career. I think they seem like fairly similar pitchers still with plus fastballs and average second tier offerings. Obviously Rogers is now one of our elite prospects, but his ceiling isn’t so much higher than Nicasio’s to rule out a similar career path. Plus, it’s hard to fault Nicasio yet, as he’s just doing what he’s asked to do and then some. I like him more than Billings and Graham because he has Graham’s velocity but better command, and he’s still on the same career track as Billings age-wise, with better results at this point.
I think he’ll get top ten Purps consideration, especially if he moves to High A soon, which seems likely with the level of dominance he’s displayed.
These are all very good points...
I can’t argue much other than to say that Rogers’ secondary offerings held more potential than Nicasio’s at the Asheville level, and that Esmil has fulfilled much of that promise. I think given his command, you’re probably right that he’s ahead of where Graham was/is, but I can’t put him on the Chacin/Rogers level of prospects because his ceiling still seems to be a likely #4 or possibly a #3 if things break right in his development, whereas those two are safer in the 2/3 range. Top 10 in the system? I suppose, Nicasio’s probably in that 9-12 range right now, it depends on what you value.
I wouldn't put him on their level yet either
though from what I’ve seen from Chacin this year, I think his ceiling is much closer to 3 than 2. I came in expecting to see a player similar to Fausto Carmona with command, but I wouldn’t put his sinker at that level yet. He looks more like a poor mans Jair Jurrjens, which isn’t a bad thing, but I’m not convinced he can reach back for 94 when he needs it as frequent as Jair can.
I think our pitching prospects may be ranked in this order now:
Matzek
Friedrich- Combo of increased velo, curve, and results make him very appealing. I think his upside is that of a Cliff Lee ace.
Rogers- Easier velocity, good idea of how to pitch, safer bet to fill a key role as a fall back to bullpen power arm.
Chacin- Change-up is advertised, curve is a decent quick hook, but I was hoping to see a plus plus sinker and it’s just good to plus. Probably not an ace, but very well could be a workhorse, and perhaps a more consistent Jason Marquis.
Brothers- Velo and stuff rare for a lefty. Ultimate role ambiguity makes him a tough one to forecast.
Nicasio- see above
Graham- Combo of size, stuff intruiging, walks and age are not.
Weathers- Knocked because of TJ’s history of making command a challenge post-surgery. Will likely be 26 before he’s of value to the big league club.
Then there’s a pool of guys, like Billings, Frazier, Deduno, Escalona, Roe, Hynick that all share similar traits or grades. One guy I’d like to add and comment on in this group would be Hollingsworth. His SS league debut was so bad I had written him off, and his numbers this year are merely solid, but Hollingsworth has very good GB numbers and a sinker on film to match. Probably a fifth starter type, but one that fits into the team’s philosophy, and a far better outlook than it appear last year.
Finally, it’s too early to rank them, but Balcolm-Miller, Scahill, and Stavert are three very interesting arms that might make a BA top 30 list moreso than a Purp List.
I can't say I disagree with much here.
I think I see different pools once you get out of the top five rather than just one, and it looks like I’m a little bit higher on Chacin still, but it’s pretty much the same. I’d probably be careful to include Weatherford in those lower pools somewhere.
Really like Weatherford, but he has to get on track first
I like him more than Escalona, relief-wise, because he has three plaus pitches coming out of the same slot. His deception looks outstanding on film and the splitter and slider play up because of it. Injuries are a huge concern that it has to effect is grade.
I think with time we can seperate the pools into different tiers, while adding a few additional names, like Matt Reynolds, Houston, Riordan, etc. My post was a bit off the cuff, however those rankings for the top eight have been my belief since the post-draft week.
One thing that does stand out is that while the Rockies have taken three lefites in the first round the last two years, that’s about all in the cupboard. I’m a big fan of Ole Miss’ Pomeranz for next year, but the better we play, the less likely we get that type of player. While I’m digressing here, the point is that the Rockies are still a few lefties short of a well stocked pitching system.
You think so?
I mean, we don’t compare to Texas, but who does? I think the Rockies more than LHP’s have the same need they’ve had for a while in clear cut elite pitching talent regardless of which arm, and I think once/if Matzek signs (I’m getting more confident in this lately) we should be pretty close to a top five pitching system. Texas would be higher, San Fran and Boston are probably higher, maybe Baltimore, but after that I’d put our collection of arms up against anybody’s. I think that top five of Matzek/Friedrich/Chacin/Rogers/Brothers is pretty daunting, especially given that there’s additional depth beyond that.
I meant a bear cupboard of lefties
not necessarily pitching. Our pitching talent sets up nicely, and while we’re not Texas, I think what we have is sufficient for our demand.
Elite pitching talent is a tricky because even when you try to procure it it won’t necessarily work out. You can only attempt to put yourself in a situation where you have guys with the tools to become great, and I think they realize this and worked to improve this during the draft.
I’m actually confident on the Matzek front too, especially when you start to explore bonus numbers and attempt to put his situation into perspective. For instance, if we were to come to the table with an offer 20% higher than last year’s number 11, which was a significant above slot bonus handed out to Justin Smoak, the rockies still aren’t shelling out 4 million bucks. You put 3.8 million on the table, and it’s going to be pretty damn hard for him to do better. Plus, by this time last year, Crow and Washington were already sparring, so I like where this is headed.
Pitching is easy though
if we have a similar discussion on hitters, we’d probably be all over the board…
And another note on Nicasio, his breakout was a needed boost to the organization that has seen players take steps backward at full season levels more so than steps forward.
I guess I have another debate with taking steps backward...
I’m not sure I’m seeing that many outside guys like Nelson and Weathers who have been shut down due to injury and I guess a few pitchers like Hirsh and Reynolds at the last rung of the ladder. Some stagnation, a lot of steps forward haven’t been as large as Rogers/Nicasio/Escalona, but I haven’t seen many steps backward, either.
I mean, looking at the top position prospects at each level to start the season:
CSP:
Fowler is holding a starting job at the MLB level,
EY2’s knocking on the door
Tulsa:
Nelson – another lost season
Holcomb’s now turning it on in a big way, it took him awhile to adjust to a big jump but he’s seeming more legit now.
Mayora’s quietly had another solid year at the plate
McKenry’s been what he’s always been as far as I know, a good defensive catcher with pop and a bit of patience but some contact issues.
Modesto:
Blackmon’s – doing okay, no power still, but he didn’t have that last season either.
Gomez – battled injuries but has had his moments and looked solid to everybody who’s seen him.
Rosario – was too young/raw for the level at the plate but is holding his own.
Asheville:
Cleary – okay, still raw. I was hoping for a big step forward that hasn’t materialized, but his performance is not a backwards step.
Robinson – pretty much the same boat as Cleary. A decent performance but not enough to threaten incumbents ahead of him.
Massey – unprepared for the level, again not a backwards step, though.
Roling – not as dominant as we could have hoped? Not a backwards step.
For pitchers you have clear large steps forward with Friedrich, Rogers, Nicasio and Escalona. I think Roe and Hynick have taken smaller steps, but there’s distinct progress. Maybe Graham’s taken a step back but at a higher level it’s hard to say if this isn’t just a case of his faults as a pitcher catching up to him. Billings looked good early but seems to have stagnated. Riordan’s doing the opposite and heating up late. At Asheville Hollingsworth has clearly built on his 2008 season. I mean, I think the organization hasn’t seen as many of those big steps forward it would have liked to and we can’t project any position player stars, but for the most part it’s been a season of quiet progress.
I should have said holding serve
instead of stepping backwards, but most of these guys were B/C level that we were hoping to improve:
Fowler- Semantics more than anything, but I haven’t been including him as I’ve already considered him a graduate.
EYJ- Knocking on the door, but season is still superficially impressive. Ona side note, I had the priviledge of sitting behind home plate at the Futures Game sunday and got to watch the teams take “in and out.” Young’s footwork has improved to the point where he should be average in time from that standpoint, and turning the double play. His hands are still not soft, and this was a small sample, but he doesn’t necessarily have to move off the position now, as I had previously thought.
Nelson- This is a big step backwards and it’s a big blow to the offensive prospects in the system, as this sets him back possibly two seasons and past his time to improve significantly.
Holcomb- Needs to prove this is more than a good two weeks of play, because he’s been unimpressive in several facets here in Tulsa.
Blackmon- A step to the side is essentially a step backwards, as we probably have to lower our ceiling expectations
McKenry- No change, but none was expected, he simply is what he is.
Roe/Hynick- Small steps forward per results, but there are some really secondary issues. They’ve recovered as prospects but are B-/C+ types.
Gomez- Slight stepforward for me, as his recent slump canbe tied to his layoff. I think he’s our top positional prospect.
Rosario- Rushed path aside, this is a step backwards. I don’t understand why he A) Has shared time from the get go, and B) not been bumped down when he’s struggled (unless they really like Pacheco, but they could have simply swapped teams). Need to OPS over .700 as a power guy in the Cali League.
Rike/Christensen- Basically falling from prospect status. David’s made some gains, but near enough for a three peater.
Cleary- To me, this one might be a step up, because while he hasn’t dominated, he’s showing secondary skills that hint at his future. He’s still hitting for power as a 19 year old and flashing his speed. Pushing that .700 OPS talked about above and seems to be heating up. He would be a top ten Purp without the draftees being included.
Massey- Rushed, but still a failure to step forward is a step back because you have to lower the ceiling expectations a bit. Still like him.
Roling- Getting hot now, but was expecting more.
I don’t think step ups by Zuanich mean as much as step backs by Nelson.
I think we have one grade A position prospect for sure in Gomez. A possible A prospect in Wheeler (overall game is similar to Hunter Pence for me). A couple of B prospects in Cleary, Matthes, Sanders, Blackmon, Paulsen, and McKenry, and then the next tier of B-/C+ guys. Rosario, Arenado both probably receive incomplete grades for me.
I don’t think we are a top 10 level system againyet, primarily because we don’t have enough A level talent yet. Three guys in the BA top 50 is good (Rogers, Friedrich, Chacin), and maybe we’ll have one crack the top 25 when we sign Matzek, but graduating Fowler gives the Rockies a lot of very good prospects but few outstanding ones.
But don’t get me wrong, this is not a knock on the organization.
I think we've got big differences on Rosario,
Which is fine, it makes for healthy discussion, but I’m not at all in agreement. For his age peer level he’s just as good as or higher in OPS than other top prospects from other organizations with the exception of Tyson Gillies, whose numbers are park and schedule inflated. I think you do a big discredit to Modesto’s schedule, the Nuts had to consistently play the best pitching prospects in the minor leagues (Bumgarner, Alderson, Parker) in the first half, not to mention a pretty high quality of collegiate secondary prospect group (Barnes, Miley, etc…). Now that those elite guys have graduated, Rosario’s numbers are heating up. A 20 year old position player will almost always be behind pitchers of the same age if they have the command that those guys do, it’s not a knock on his prospect status for Rosario to struggle against them. Really, I think you’ve got to keep him in the B+ range at least.
Well, to be fair
Rosario has faced Parker twice, Bumgarner once, Barnes once, and has not faced Alderson or Miley (from what I can tell). Now obviously those aren’t the only good pitchers in the Cali League, but they are the best pitchers on teams Modesto frequently faces, and he’s only had four of his 50 appearances against them. The rockies have done a fairly good job of protecting him against pitchers he would be way overmatched against (other than two early season starts against Parker).
Now there are good signs. His splits continue to grow by each month, and he’s killing the ball over his last twelve starts, but there are still quite a few negatives. He’s not hitting on the fruitful road of the Cali League, is getting crushed by righties, and I’m still not sure why he’s locked into a job share with Davis, as his main weakness is rawness and a lack of experience.
The nice thing is there’s plenty of time to improve. If he smashes the ball in a repeat year at Modesto, he’s still ahead of schedule. i knock his grade because he’s proven to be too raw for the league, and has been slow until recently to make adjustments. However, I haven’t seen him play recently, so it would be interesting to get a scout’s take, or analyst with ties to several scouts. Time to hit the chats I suppose.
Grade-wise, I still consider Rosario in the 11-15 range, Purp-wise.
I think you're still not looking closely at Modesto's schedule...
He’s not hitting on the fruitful road of the Cali League,
The Nuts road schedule thus far has been mostly San Jose, Stockton and Visalia, with only six games in Bakersfield and three in Lancaster. Nothing so far in Lake Elsinore or High Desert. You simply can’t compare Cali League players to each other that easily because of the weighted scheduling. It drives me nuts with Goldstein and Law when they do this. Rosario’s only played four of those nine games at Lancaster and Bakersfield and gone 5 for 14 with a triple and two home runs.
Visalia’s also a nice hitting park, and once Parker left, it’s been nice to Rosario. He went zero for eight in two April contests against Parker and Collmenter but went 5 for 8 in the two games he played there in June. Rosario’s season has had three phases that seem to point to a solid progression for me.
1. From the start of the season through the Bumgarner start May 4th. This phase was where he was clearly overmatched by the league as a hitter, either elite pitching talent or mature arms.
2. From then until the end of a slump on June 5th. He did okay after Bumgarner until May 22nd, but then went cold with only the launchpad at Lancaster keeping him from a complete seven game hitless streak.
3. From June 7th until now. .338/.368/.462 over 19 games and 68 PA’s. Last time he faced Clayton Tanner at San Jose was during that seven game cold stretch and he went zero for four. Last night he went two for four with a home run.
Basically I’m seeing his cold stretches get shorter and his hot stretches get longer. I’m seeing him come back to face pitchers a second time and clobber them. The power numbers aren’t completely there yet, but they seem to be just under the surface. He’s got K rate concerns this season, but from everything I’ve read on him, he should be a player to develop out of them as he progresses. I think he’s catching up to the level of play as much as it is coming back to him. I haven’t received a bad report that says to give up or deflate our opinion of him.
I think we’re just starting to see him take off, frankly and to me he’s still without question a top ten, and would still be a top five if it weren’t for Rogers’ break out season and the Matzek selection. If Matzek doesn’t sign, I think he’d still be my #5.
The job share with Davis is just the way the Rockies develop catchers who are still learning defense (remember how they did the same thing with Iannetta?). I don’t know if I agree with it either, but it shouldn’t be held against Rosario as a prospect.
I also notice you don't mention Robinson...
Which I’m guessing was because you have him in the tier of B-/C+ players, but I don’t know if he’s that different from Blackmon at this point, and he may have a higher ceiling than Charlie. His road numbers have been improving by quite a bit over the last month and a half as his four for four night yesterday attests to.
Keith Weiser is still somehow awesome.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
