Todd Helton splits and ISO

by amoeba on Jul 16, 2009 12:00 PM MDT

First time post on purplerow, I can't get enough of the intelligent baseball discussion!

My post is centered around Todd Helton and his decline in production in recent years. I have been trying to see if I could figure out any particular reason other than simple aging, and I have a couple of theories. Here's some data:

As you can see, Helton's OPS started coming down around 2005 - dramatically vs. left handed pitchers.

More after the jump ...

Ok, so the first thing I looked at was Helton's ISO splits:

You can see, his ISO vs. left handed pitchers has dramatically declined - he's basically become a singles hitter vs. left handed pitching. He is still a great hitter (by OPS and ISO) vs. right handed pitching. I would say most of his overall decline is left on left, and the gap has even widened this year.

Ok, so I looked at one other thing - his ISO by ball/strike count. I don't have the right/left splits for this, but I think this graph is very telling:

So, you can see through 2004, Helton was steadily feasting on the first pitch from opposing pitchers. Something has happened since then (with a brief blip in 2006), where he now has lost his aggression on early pitches. One theory based on this data is that he has started taking more pitches to try and get a favorable count. I think vs. righties this has worked fine, but vs. lefties they have started coming at him - I wish I had first strike % by left/right, it might show something So if you follow my theory, he is getting behind in the count against lefties, and is unable to hit for power behind in the count. He is actually hitting over .300 left on left this year, but you can see the power is basically gone.

So, I think if Helton would pick his spots and be aggressive early in the count against lefties, he could recover some of his platoon disadvantage that has developed since 2004. Right now he has become a liability left on left - unless you are happy with a singles only hitter hitting third in your lineup.

So in summary, I think most of Helton's decline in production is vs. left handed pitching. One reason may be taking too many pitches early in the count and getting behind, which forces him into singles mode instead of hitting for power. Any thoughts?

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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there could be an argument for batting Todd 2nd in the lineup against lefties

being as he is still getting on base at a good clip, and is obviously a patient hitter. The problem is we don’t have a right hand bat who profiles well for the 3 and 4 spots. I suppose Tulo would be the closest, but his average needs to be at least 30 points higher before that happens.

Although Todd has obviously regressed some from his massive peaks of the early 2000’s, I’m still happy having a guy who kills righties and can at least get on base against lefties hitting third in the lineup regardless

by djmbluemoon on Jul 16, 2009 12:18 PM MDT reply actions

Rockies OPS vs. left handed pitching

Here’s the ordered list of Rockies’ OPS vs. lefties:

1. Seth Smith 1.306
2. C. Iannetta 1.036
3. Clint Barmes 0.983
4. R. Spilborghs 0.938
5. Brad Hawpe 0.885
6. G. Atkins 0.797
7. T. Tulowitzki 0.766
8. Dexter Fowler 0.759
9. O. Quintanilla 0.75
10. Ian Stewart 0.715
11. C. Gonzalez 0.713
12. Todd Helton 0.68
13. Y. Torrealba 0.644

Unfortunately, I don’t see much of an argument for your second worst hitter batting second in the lineup. As scary as it is to say, our best lineup vs. lefties probably has Todd on the bench with Hawpe playing first base.

by amoeba on Jul 16, 2009 12:58 PM MDT reply actions

Weren't we training Smith to play first?

by bballrox4717 on Jul 16, 2009 1:20 PM MDT up reply actions

Smith....

The Smith numbers against lefties is a small sample size—throughout his career he is much better against RHPs.

by DenverBears on Jul 16, 2009 1:26 PM MDT up reply actions

yeah, smith's LHP splits are based on PH appearances anyhow.

He has like 1 hit, 5BB or something like that.

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 16, 2009 3:38 PM MDT up reply actions

All are small sample sizes

These are 2009 splits only, right? If so, they’re all small samples.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 16, 2009 6:19 PM MDT up reply actions

oh stop

if we just dismiss everything due to small samples, we can’t really discuss anything. Helton’s gonna change year to year, so while his 2009 only numbers might be a SSS, they’re going to represent a totally different Helton than last year: one that can feel both of his legs

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 17, 2009 9:59 AM MDT up reply actions

What would lead you to conclude that?

You can discuss larger samples. You can alter the discussion to account for the lesser reliability of the smaller samples. You can discuss why the small samples are actually reliable.

There’s always something to discuss.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 17, 2009 12:46 PM MDT up reply actions

well sure

but we’re responding to every split stat as a small sample size exclusion. I don’t think Seth Smith is really a 1300 OPS guy against LHP, but he’s been hitting and seeing them well enough, so maybe there’s something more we’re missing.

Helton’s bad back prevented him from hitting from the power we used to know him for, and like I mention below, he’s actually swinging for it now.

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 17, 2009 12:53 PM MDT up reply actions

To every half season split vs. LHP?

That is a small sample.

My comment was in response to a guy setting an entire lineup based on 9 half season’s splits vs. LHP’s. I’m pretty sure no one even has 100 PA against lefties so far this season.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 17, 2009 3:16 PM MDT up reply actions

2009 is a small data set, but ...

I agree, I would not advocate basing a lineup only on a half season of LHP splits, as it may not be representative. However, my OPS and ISO graphs represent a larger amount of data.

Let’s look back at 2008 OPS splits vs LHP:

Ian Stewart 1.137
G. Atkins 1.014
C. Iannetta 0.948
Clint Barmes 0.947
T. Tulowitzki 0.946
Jeff Baker 0.926
R. Spilborghs 0.914
Matt Holliday 0.896
Brad Hawpe 0.826
Y. Torrealba 0.739
Todd Helton 0.678
Willy Taveras 0.634

Here Todd is 11th/12.

This is for the entire 2008 season. Again, not a huge amount of data, but I see a trend. I definitely wouldn’t advocate Willy Taveras batting in the three hole, which is effectively what the Rockies were doing with Todd batting third against lefties.

How about 2007:

Clint Barmes 1.111
R. Spilborghs 1.012
Matt Holliday 0.958
T. Tulowitzki 0.932
Willy Taveras 0.877
G. Atkins 0.782
C. Iannetta 0.779
Jeff Baker 0.76
Todd Helton 0.743
Y. Torrealba 0.71
Jamey Carroll 0.705
Kazuo Matsui 0.697
Brad Hawpe 0.679

Todd was 9th/13.

We know Brad was challenged against lefties early in 2007 and pulled himself around late in the year.

Without boring you with more data, in 2006 Helton was 5th/10 semi-regulars, and in 2005 he was 10th/13. He’s definitely been near the bottom of the regulars since 2005, which is a more significant amount of data.

by amoeba on Jul 17, 2009 4:19 PM MDT up reply actions

bad example....

Smith has 12 ABs against LHP this year. If he has an 0/4 game his BA would drop by 80 points.

What do you think is a better predictor of future performance? Those 12 ABs or the 100’s he had in the minors? It is possible that he has improved against LHPs, but we really don’t have any evidence of that.

by DenverBears on Jul 18, 2009 5:58 AM MDT up reply actions

wow

I knew Helton was no longer as productive against lefties as he used to be, but I didn’t think the dropoff was this dramatic.

I don’t recall the Rockies toying with the idea to play Smith at first. Hawpe’s never played first.

by J. Henry Waugh on Jul 16, 2009 1:25 PM MDT up reply actions

Hawpe did in college

Ringolsby projected Hawpe to be the starting first baseman in 2011 in his offseason prospect report/projection for Baseball America. Renck (I believe) mentioned Smith was taking some reps at first last week.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 16, 2009 2:48 PM MDT up reply actions

Hawpe...

Hawpe historically doesn’t hit lefties—has he figured things out this year or will he regress to the mean in the second half?

Spilly needs to be in against LHPs is some way or another—possibly as you suggest by moving Hawpe to 1B.

Those stats for Helton certainly put some things into perspective—I agree that Helton ought to be sitting against lefties—it also has the side-benefit of giving Helton more time off, which might keep him from fatiguing over the year. Looking at the graphs, since 2005 he’s had 2.5 seasons of below 700 OPS agains LHP and one (barely) over 800—not what you want out of your 1B.

by DenverBears on Jul 16, 2009 1:35 PM MDT up reply actions

I think Hawpe's legit against LHP

You could see a new approach coming to fruition as Rocktober commenced (remember the HR off Thatcher at Petco in extras?), be took a big jump to .828 last year and improved on it more this year. He’ll regress to the mean as a whole, which will probably lower his stellar LHP numbers this year along with it, but I’m not worried about him vs LHP anymore.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 16, 2009 2:50 PM MDT up reply actions

Agree, Hawpe is legit vs. LHP

Here’s Hawpe’s OPS+ for the past few years:
2009 – 145
2008 – 135 (his RHP was 130)
2007 – 91 (this is what most people remember, but he did kick it up in Rocktember)
2006 – 106
2005 – 111 (starting to get really small number of at bats)

So, 2007 slightly below average, otherwise very good to great vs. LHP.

BTW he did play first base in high school and at LSU, as alluded to above. But, if you don’t want to play Smith vs LHP based on the small dataset, then you can do what the Rockies have done occasionally, which is have Atkins at first and Stewart at 3rd. Stewart did rake LHP in 2008 (220 OPS+, 1.137 OPS in 54 AB)

by amoeba on Jul 16, 2009 4:36 PM MDT up reply actions

I'm not sure....

He OPS’d .737 in ‘05 and ’06, .679! in ’07 against LHP’s, which is less than you would like to see out of your corner OF (especially bad defensive ones in hitter’s ballparks)—

I see the same numbers as you do for the sOPS+ in Baseball Reference, but wonder if those are specifically for lefties facing LHPs rather than league vs. LHPs—which could make a big difference.

Compare the OPS+ numbers for Corey Sullivan (OPS of .729), Dustin Mohr in 2006 (OPS of .746)—who bracket Hawpe’s OPS against LHPs—they both had OPS+ of 83

by DenverBears on Jul 16, 2009 4:53 PM MDT up reply actions

Nice catch!

You are right, the baseball reference OPS+ numbers are for LH hitter vs LHP. I had assumed it was for all hitters vs. LHP, which is clearly wrong.

I still believe that Brad’s overall OPS this year of .885 vs. LHP is acceptable – 4th on the team not including Smith’s limited AB’s. His RHP ISO is .262, and his LHP ISO is .244, so he is continuing to hit for power vs. LHP as well. Out of 131 NL players with 50 PA vs. LHP, he is 40th.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/split/31/league/nl/sort/OPS/qualified/false/minpa/50

by amoeba on Jul 16, 2009 5:21 PM MDT up reply actions

So who should we put at 1B v LHP then?

My only thought is Iannetta, unless we want to call somebody up.

Mike McCoy is hitting LHP at a .889 clip.

Just saying.

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 16, 2009 3:44 PM MDT reply actions

What about the first pitch ISO numbers?

Does anyone have any theories for the cratering of Helton’s first pitch ISO numbers? Small data size, or is there something there?

by amoeba on Jul 16, 2009 5:25 PM MDT reply actions

I'm not sure you have enough data

The stats are generated off at bats that end with the first pitch, right?

He could be taking more 1st pitches, missing/fouling more 1st pitches, or both. The results on first pitches put into play could reflect a loss of ability, a change in approach, or yes, a sample size blip.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 16, 2009 6:35 PM MDT up reply actions

yeah this SSS I can get behind

pitch-by-pitch data needs to be taken with a massive grain of salt

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 17, 2009 10:01 AM MDT up reply actions

Fewer walks, esp. with RISP

I’ve also noticed he’s walking far fewer times with RISP. (I think this has been noted before in an article/fanpost). He’s walking less often with the bases empty as well, but the difference is greater w/RISP’s. So his RBI’s are up, but OBP is down.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 16, 2009 6:40 PM MDT reply actions

I had a plugplugplug article about Helton

at the time of writing, his SLG was higher than the past couple of years and his OBP was lower, notably his IsoD, because he’s swinging at more. I think the issue is that he feels healthy enough to club the ball, and he’s not forced to sit on every pitch that isn’t perfect.

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 17, 2009 10:19 AM MDT up reply actions

Yeah--I think this must be the one I remembered.

I should have searched for it but got lazy.

Here it is: The Curious Case of Todd Helton.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 17, 2009 12:48 PM MDT up reply actions

Helton's swings have been more aggressive...

His out of zone swing% is 5 points higher than last year, and 4 points higher than his career. His in zone swing is also higher this year.

From Fangraphs:
Year___O-Swing%____Z-Swing%
08……….16.5…………………..66.5
09……….21.2…………………..70.3

Check out my Rockies comic strip at:
Rock Drive 1.4

by Charlie77 on Jul 20, 2009 1:21 PM MDT up reply actions

With Helton You Have to Remember...

From mid 05 to 08 Helton’s back progressively got worse, that was the primary reason for teh decline. I remember reading something where Todd said that it hurt more swinging against lefties because of the angle of attack on the ball. He has had to un learn some bad habits picked up from protecting his swing from the bad back, and I think we have seen that since May 1. Of course he has slowed down since his late 20s, but if you think resting him against lefties is a good idea on a regular basis, your crazy. He holds his own and his glove needs to be out there. I think this is a lot of worry about not a lot. The bigger issue is the need to break up Hawpe and Helton becuase of late game lefty specialists, which has hurt us of late. Great lefty specialists are going to be hard on even the best lefties.

by Doctor Christopher on Jul 17, 2009 11:29 PM MDT reply actions