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Can it get worse for San Diego? It had better this weekend

Everth Cabrera is a magician with the bat.  Well, sort of.  The former Rockie farmhand brings San Diego's second highest batting average into tonight's contest, the first time he'll face the team that signed him.  Oh, and in case you were still hoping to get him back, stop.  He's gone.

More photos » Tony Avelar - AP

Everth Cabrera is a magician with the bat. Well, sort of. The former Rockie farmhand brings San Diego's second highest batting average into tonight's contest, the first time he'll face the team that signed him. Oh, and in case you were still hoping to get him back, stop. He's gone.

If the Rockies want to make up ground in the NL West, they had better start beating the teams in the division.  The only team Colorado has a winning record against is the team they face tonight (5-3), the cellar-dwelling San Diego Padres.  Let's rid this tendency of playing down to the competition, shall we?

It would definitely be playing down to the competition to lose a series to the Padres too.  They won last Sunday, but all that did was avoid entering the break with an eight game losing streak.  They've won just one series since May 27.  They traded away their third biggest power threat.  Their run differential has fallen lower than the Nationals for worst in the majors.   That's a cold team.  And a bad one.

Even when they weren't playing games, the Padres weren't doing well.  Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell missed their plane to the All-Star Game and had to drive from Indianapolis.  A-Gone then hit two measly home runs in the Home Run Derby, beating only the miniscule Brandon Inge.  In the actual game, Bell became the third Padre to be saddled with the ASG loss in four years while A-Gone failed to get an at-bat.

So what do the Padres have going for them?  About the only thing at this point is Petco Park.  They are 23-20 in San Diego - compare that to the Rockies 23-19 Coors record.  Colorado dropped one of two at the metal factory May 4-5 this season.  They can protect their home field very well for a weak team, and Petco doesn't treat the Rox well traditionally.

Gaslamp Ball is the Padres blog.

 

Padreslogo_medium

San Diego Padres (36-52, W1, 5th, 20 GB) 

Thursday-Sunday: 4-game series at Petco Park

The Bats:  D

I doubt it's surprising to you that San Diego is dead last in batting average.  In fact, their .233 average is a whole 13 points below their nearest company - Oakland.  They're last in wOBA with .302 (almost Yorvit territory), last in runs 334, last in slugging, last in OPS.  Their second highest batting average (by a familiar name) is just .255.  It's like reading lines for the Rockies pitching staff in the 90's.  Both have been mistreated by a ridiculously biased ballpark.

That's why I included OPS+ for this one.  Their team OPS+ is 89, which is still bad, but it's better than San Francisco (84), Cincinnati (84), Oakland (86),  Chicago Cubs (86), and Kansas City (88).  So as weak as this lineup looks, I can't give it an F, even though some key contributors (Gerut, Eckstein, Hairston, Blanco) are hurt or have been traded.

LINEUP Avg HR RBI OBP SLG wOBA OPS+
Everth Cabrera - SS .255 0 10 .340 .340 .321 91
Tony Gwynn Jr. - CF .297 1 8 .374 .394 .340 115
Adrian Gonzalez - 1B .250 24 52 .387 .523 .383 151
Kevin Kouzmanoff - 3B .244 12 47 .280 .405 .299 89
Chase Headley - LF .232 8 32 .308 .366 .304 87
Will Venable - RF .233 1 5 .313 .367 .308 89
Eliezer Alfonzo - C .237 2 7 .274 .356 .278 74
Luis Rodriguez - 2B .205 1 9 .329 .262 .272 68

 

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one All-Star (Gonzalez), one slightly above average hitter (Gwynn), three below average (Cabrera, Headley, Venable) and three well below average ones (Kouzmanoff, Alfonzo, Rodriguez).  However, via OPS+, Gonzo's a star, Gwynn is solid, and other than Alfonzo and Rodriquez, they are just a bit below average.  Interesting stat of the day:  Scott Hairston had a .390 wOBA with San Diego, better than even A-Gone.

Bud Black is only carrying three guys on his bench - rookie Jose Lobaton (0-for-6), enormous rookie outfielder Kyle Blanks (7-for-50) and Edgar Gonzalez (.180/.241/.361).  That's about the most sorry looking bench you'll find.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

Star-divide

The Arms: D

it's tough to pitch poorly when you get to play at Petco Park, but believe it or not, the Padres have done it.  Their ERA+ is 80, much worse than their offense.  Their staff ERA is 5th worst at 5.71 in spite of the home park.  Their ERA/FIP/tRA splits for starters are 5.23/4.59/5.06 and for relievers 3.86/4.11/4.29.  Those aren't very pretty. 

Still, the we could have challenges with their four starters.  Gaudin and Correia are above average pitchers by tRA.  Geer gave up just one run at Petco against the Rox in eight innings earlier this year.  ESPN lists Mat Latos as Sunday's starter.  He'd be making his MLB Debut after starting the year at Low-A Fort Wayne.  He has torched the minor leagues, is listed by Baseball America as the Padres' #2 prospect behind Kyle Blanks and has the best fastball in their organization.  MLB.com has Tim Stauffer as the starter, who pitched very well in his 2009 debut last week, but indicates Latos is likely to be called up in coming days.

Bud Black's bulging bullpen includes All-Star closer Heath Bell, obviously.   Also currently listed in the pen are righties Mike Adams, Josh Banks, Greg Burke, Mike Ekstrom, Luke Gregerson, Cla Meredith, Edward Mujica, Luis Perdomo, and Ryan Webb (from the Hairston trade).  When Latos is called up for Sunday, one of those nine righties will get the boot.  My guess would be Banks. Note: There are no LHP on the Padres' active roster.

 

The D: D+

With a -3.5 UZR/150, the Padres don't seem to have great defensive range.  Their 48 errors are respectable, but FG gives them a -13.4 rating, decidedly below average.

 

The Ballpark: VERY HEAVY pitcher's park

You probably knew that.  However, it's park factor is 89, which is more influential on the pitching side than Coors Field has been for hitters since 2005.  That's substantial, considering Coors hurt Matt Holliday's MVP dreams in 2007.  Petco makes their pitchers look far more acceptable and their hitters far more putrid.  The park factor at Petco will affect stats more than any other park.

 

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 8:05 pm MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2009 - Aaron Cook 8-3 3.98 1.39 55 34

W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2009 - Chad Gaudin 4-7 5.03 1.41 85 44

 

Friday, July 17, 8:05 pm MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez 6-9 3.81 1.32 101 46

W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2009 - Josh Geer 1-4 5.79 1.31 47 17


Saturday, July 18, 8:05 MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2009 - Jason Hammel 5-4 4.43 1.46 61 21

W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2009 - Kevin Correia 6-7 4.50 1.30 82 34

 

Sunday, July 19, 2:05 MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2009 - Jason Marquis 11-6 3.65 1.31 58 40

**Lo-A and AA Stats**  **MLB Debut**W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2009 - Mat Latos 8-1 1.37 0.75 73 12

 

33_15_10---fire-flame-texture_web_mediumWill Venable is 9-for-28 with a HR in July.  Kevin Kouzmanoff has a couple HR in July, while Heath Bell, Mike Adams and Mike Ekstrom all have ERAs under 2.00 this month.

 

 

IceJosh Geer was lit up for 6 runs and 3 HR in his last start and hasn't won since May 24.  Adrian Gonzalez has been ice cold in July, going just 6-for-46 with just one XBH - a double.  Everth Cabrera is just 9-for-45 (10 TB) in July while Chase Headley and Luis Rodriguez join the sub-.600 July OPS club.  Kyle Blanks singled Sunday, his first hit in 18 ABs.

 

Bandaid_mediumSix pivotal contributors are on the 15-day DL.  Jake Peavy (ankle), Chris Young (shoulder), Nick Hundley (forearm), Brian Giles (knee), David Eckstein (hamstring) and Henry Blanco (hamstring) are all hobbled.  RHP's Cha Seung Baek (forearm), Shawn Hill (elbow) and Mark Worrell (elbow) are on the 60-day DL along with Cliff Floyd (shoulder)

Poll
Can we sweep a four game series at Petco?
Yes. They're terrible. Even their All-Stars have been embarrassing
67 votes
No, but three out of four ain't bad.
61 votes
No. Split in San Diego. Darn it
7 votes
No. This is embarrassing. Who loses a series to the Padres?!
4 votes
No. We get swept and spanked by the San Diego Dads
1 votes

140 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 25 comments |

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Interesting article at BP

With a midseason check on revenue projections. Subscribers can read the article, but San Diego is second only to Toronto in terms of revenue loss this year, with a 28% drop. Arizona’s #5 with a 23% drop. The Rockies have been hit by the economy too, but at only a 11% drop thus far and our contending status and heavy second half home schedule would seem to wind up playing to our benefit this year. Another deep playoff run could put the team at a pretty significant financial advantage over the Snakes heading into next season and this would be one of the reasons why they’ve had to make a cash call to their ownership group.

The Padres aren’t in quite so dire a spot, despite the larger percentage drop because they make more (their projected revenue thus far in 2009 is actually nearly equal with the Rockies) but it seems their ownership in paring payroll is prepping for further weakness next season as well. Obviously the Dodgers and Giants are still well out in front of the Rockies in terms of revenue.

by Rox Girl on Jul 16, 2009 3:24 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice article Rox girl

…I was kinda of curious about revenue projections…I wonder if the Rockies are going to be on sound financial footing long term.

Posedion’s Fist I think you were way too generous with the grade for the Bats. How about a F-?

by lizardlad01 on Jul 16, 2009 3:39 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Adrian Gonzalez gives a big lift to them...

Don’t forget they play in the absolute worst hitting environment in the majors. It’s like how you have to give extra credit to our pitchers for Coors Field. In this case, the extra credit isn’t enough to make their bats look decent, but it is enough to get them out of the failboat.

by Rox Girl on Jul 16, 2009 3:49 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

HONK HONK HONK

HERE COMES THE FAIL BUS! Notice how the fail bus wants to be a boat but can’t float.

by lizardlad01 on Jul 16, 2009 3:56 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gonzalez went ice cold in July

—I hope he stays that way for 4 more days

.130 / .216 / .152 in July.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 16, 2009 6:12 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes please stay that way

a little bit longer mr. Gonzo

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

by TuLoRocks2008 on Jul 16, 2009 6:33 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't mind this at all.

And would like it very much, actually, but I would also like it very much if immediately after that he started mashing again. Not that I have conflicting interests with a fantasy team. Okay, so I do have conflicting interests.

by Rox Girl on Jul 16, 2009 6:50 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you here

I like him, and the Padres aren’t challenging the Rockies, so I hope he goes wild in all the non-Rockies games, or at least against the rest of the division.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 16, 2009 7:00 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oops, that's already in PF's text.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 16, 2009 6:13 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Glad you noticed

I just thought you were expanding on my point ;-)

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 16, 2009 7:10 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

What she said

I had forgotten to add Petco Park Factor info, but it’s a stronger pitcher park than Coors has been a hitter park in half a decade…They still don’t have much punch, but as much as I wanted to put a big red F, they deserve at least a D-. Woo! D-!

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 16, 2009 7:12 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have a question about Park factors.

Like, what are they based on and how accurate are they? It seems like if a park can become less hitter friendly, or whatever, isn’t that more due to the hitting than the actual park?

I’m confused because it seems like it should be a constant.

by coolopotamus on Jul 16, 2009 11:56 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

They can get quite complicated and sticky

Here’s Baseball Reference’s explanation. My vague, perhaps inaccurate, interpretation is that they take players’/teams’ production at home and measure compare it to road production. Therefore, the park gets credit if offense increases at the park but does not increase by a similar amount on the road. It involves iterations, as the road games aren’t park neutral either. The big issue is sample size. In spite of hundreds of players and thousands of ABs in a season, for the empirical data, even a full year isn’t enough, and it can fluctuate some do to all the other variable. That fluctuation is why BBallRef includes single year and multiyear park factors. You’ll see they tend to be about the same, though they do fluctuate some. As evidence of the humidor, Coors Field was 125 in 1998 to just 105 this year.

I like Baseball Reference’s numbers. They are quick and easy to understand and apply, though not very specific. StatCorner has specific park factors for individual events, though they haven’t been around that long. ESPN does the same, but their calculations are simpler and more likely to fluctuate. I don’t like them. For instance, do we really believe Chase Field was the #1 pitcher’s park in 2002, yet the #2 offensive park in 2009? Check the HR factor each of those years to strengthen your disbelief. Parks do fluctuate due to sample sizes, but not that much. That’s why I like BBallRef better. Hope that makes sense

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 17, 2009 8:31 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

What's the projection based on?

The non-sub part talks about the annual survey of ticket prices…are they basically working off attendance figures and the avg. ticket price figures?

I wonder how tv revenue works. Is there multi-year contract w/FSN, and the fee fixed, or can it fluctuate due to ratings? How large a piece of revenue is advertising and luxury boxes? I’d imagine those things have been hit hard by the bad economy.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 16, 2009 6:05 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think they take most of that into account, and make estimates on what's hidden,

It’s implied in the article. San Diego wouldn’t have equal revenue to the Rockies with 5000 fewer fans if they only were using ticket revenue, even with SD’s ticket prices costing $8 more on average. The Yankees revenue of $267 million plus so far is definitely not just from tickets alone, the subscription part of the article says that most of their bump comes from actual increased capacity/use of luxury boxes in the new stadium, even while their pricy new box seats are pretty empty.

by Rox Girl on Jul 16, 2009 6:17 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am calling it right now....

Hammel will look dominant on Saturday night pitching in Petco.

by jcd823 on Jul 16, 2009 4:30 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Corpas was activated today.

Belisle designated for assignment.

by WolfMarauder on Jul 16, 2009 4:53 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

No word on any other moves...

… which means Peralta and Torrealba’s injuries before the break are probably pretty minor, and we don’t care that we have just one lefty in the pen.

by WolfMarauder on Jul 16, 2009 4:54 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

wooo

manny time and no more belisle

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

by TuLoRocks2008 on Jul 16, 2009 5:19 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Revenge on Gaudin

I think they need to get him back for Tracy’s first loss.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 16, 2009 6:09 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

how come i can't reply to anything

cpu is all screwy on this site…but i wanted to reply to Fooman saying friggin Gaudin only pitches good against us it seems

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

by TuLoRocks2008 on Jul 16, 2009 6:21 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

You're right

I forgot about his season debut. The law of averages must catch up…2 runs in 11.1 IP against us, 5.83 R/9 against everyone else.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 16, 2009 7:07 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

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