Relief
by brian8065 on Jul 19, 2009 2:53 PM MDT
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PrintAs everyone knows, The Rockies have a big hole in their game. The current relievers for the Rockies are Houston Street, Josh Fogg, Matt Daley, Manny Corpas, Franklin Morales, Joel Parelta and Juan Rincon. Street is great, but there is no real #2 man. I do not believe there is one in the organization. If we do not get at least the wild card, this is the reason. I would like to see two pitchers added.
Take your pick on who goes between Fogg, Daley, Parelta and Rincon. Like most Rockies fans, I like Fogg, and he has done well when he has pitched. Daley, Parelta and Rincon have all been OK, but not comparable to Taylor Buchholz. We need a pitcher or two of that level.
One of the results of having a week bullpen is more pressure is put on our starters. You can't help but notice that Jim Tracy stays with his starters longer than Clint did. This has the potential of hurting us down the road. I feel that Tracy does not have confidence in the back end of the bullpen.
On everybody's "Power Rankings" the Dodgers are at or near the top. Baseball Prospectus has the Dodgers as the number one team. If you take our best lineup (which includes Seth Smith), our players have a better OPS+ than the Dodgers best 8. Our starters are at least close to being as good as theirs, and depends on how you look at it, ours are better.
It is our bullpen that is clearly the problem. These are the guysthat I would be willing to trade for players close to Buchholz's quality. EY2, Garrett Atkins (lol), Matt Murton, Sadly Ryan Spillborghs, possibly Carlos Gonzalez (for the right guy), Jeff Kingery, and even, (gulp), Seth Smith.
For instance, trade Garrett Atkins, where we pick up most of the salary, and EY2 to the Orioles for Jim Johnson. Trade EY2 to Oakland for Michael Wuertz. Get Bobby Seay from the Tigers. Get someone. Or two. We have average guys now. We do not need quantity, we need quality. For you EY2 lovers out there, we have a second baseman now.
I assume that Dan O'Dowd is working on something. I would like a rumor or two to ease my mind. This is a big hole, and if it is not fixed, we will underperform with a very good team.
Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).
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This could be long
Ok, I disagree with some of the verbage. I don’t think our pen is a huge hole. It fact it’s done pretty well over the last month or so. I am nervous about some of the arms out there now.
Closer: Street: Has been nails, and a great pick up for O’Dowd
Corpas: Still has bone chips in that elbow, and can’t pitch back to back days. I worry another DL trip is always going to be right around the corner
Rincon: Actually has had a solid career isn’t that old. He was a 2 pitch pitcher, and lost a little zip off his fastball, which is why the Twins cut him. He’s added a slider. He’s not bad actually.
Peralta ahs been solid, but he gave up a LOT of home runs at KC, and gave up one in San Diego the other night. I worry about him regressing.
Daly is not over powering and had gotten by on his weird delivery. Teams have now gotten a book and film on him, and he’s looking more hittable.
Fogg: Has been good, and is the official “Long Man” but most of his outings have been of one inning or less. He’s done well in relief this year. I don’t know why we don’t see him more.
Now here’s where I totally disagree with you. Morales is a power arm and a lefty. He could be that big time arm. He’s a lefty that can throw 93 mph. He seems to me to have the mental make up of a reliever (actually classic closer) as he wants to over power hitters. He has the stuff to do it. I think the Rockies pen gets a lot better as they realize what they have out there in Morales.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
Forgot the summary paragraph
So yes, I would like to upgrade the pen. Rincon, Peralta, Daly to me are the same type of pitcher. On a scale of one to 10 I’d give them a 5. They are ok…but not great. Not dominate enough for the back end, ok to fill out a staff, but you don’t want 3 guys like that. I think Morales and Street plus Corpas will be a good core at the back of the games, but adding another arm will be good to see. But I don’t see the pen as a black hole.
As for your trades….“.trade player X for player Y…make it happen” I find to be funny. The Rockies biggest depth is OF (spilly and Murton) and starting pitching, and those starters might be able to pitch out of the pen now. and maybe better then some names available I’ve seen (like Bautista from Seattle)
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
Morales is exciting
I like him, and hope he does well. I am happy when he gets in the game. The problem is Rincon, Peralta and Daley. All are boderline Major Leaguers.
I will rank the pitchers on scale of 1-10, 4 being a minor leaguer, 9+ being Mariano Rivera.
Street is a 8.5, and we are all very happy with him.
Buchholz was a 8
Corpus is a 7.5, despite his ERA I still like him.
Morales is a 6.5-7 and moving up.
Fogg is a 6, but can eat up innings and certainly spot start
Daley is a 6
Rincon is a 5
Peralat is a 5
If we could get an 8, and eliminate a 5, that will have a great impact on the team.
It is not enough to have Major League arms, but we need some good-great Major League arms. We really miss Taylor Buchholz. We need Casey Weathers. I suspect Jhoulys Chacin, Brandon Hynick or Esmil Rogers may be in the mix.
Bobby Seay would be great because he is left handed. The Tigers need a second baseman.
There are other internal options as well
Deduno, Roe, Lindsey (coming back from injury) Escalona, Speier. Personally I think with those, adn the ones you mentioned, there are internal options that might be as good as what the Rockies get back in a trade, AND the Rockies wouldn’t have to lose a player.
You do know that the Rockies cut Bobby Seay from Spring Training a couple of years ago right?
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
Seay's stint with the Rockies was pretty awful
6.53 FIP baby
I know it’s been awhile since then…but he’s pretty wild and i don’t think he’d keep up his performance with Detroit here for some reason.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 20, 2009 9:30 AM MDT up reply actions
Callups
I have a hard time seeing minor leaguers coming up and in their first 2 months of major league action, becoming an “8th inning” sort of reliever. I’m sure some of them have the ability, and could do it, but the chances of inconsistency or failure in the short timespan must be at least as high.
I guess it doesn’t hurt to call someone up and work them in, but since there’s not a lot of bullpen innings to go around these days, I wonder if how many trials they’d get before you’d just have to throw them into the fire.
This seems like a plan B if Corpas can’t get his June performance back and if Morales can’t really fill the role.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
We might be able to do it if
we called up a starter and put them in the pen.
We all know about starters dominating in the pen like Gagne or Joba. But even a guy like Andrew Bailey who’s dominating for the A’s. He was solid but somewhat unspectacular in the minors but has been doing really well in relief.
I think a few factors lead to this – 1. the league not being familiar with his stuff 2. being able to go all out with all of his pitches since there’s no need to conserve energy and 3. Bailey has 4 pitches which is unusually deep for a reliever.
I don’t think it’s too far fetched for us to have our own Bailey somewhere in the minors…
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
Starters to relievers
work because the relievers aren’t in their as long. The batters don’t get a 2nd look at a guy. The pitcher can throw harder and more “all out”. Usually the reliever, doesn’t have to think…just throw, and usually just 2 pitches. They don’t have to work on a 4th pitch, or worry as much about throwing it to keep guys off balance as a starter does.
down side: Working with runners on a lot, messes with guys, as does the lack of routine that starting pitchers get. Also having to warm up quickly, and some times several times a game some pitchers just don’t do well.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
Another downside, at least with our up and coming guys:
Is that you run the risk of them becoming a reliever forever. Morales has been really good for us in the pen, but I don’t want to see him get stuck there as opposed to working up the stamina and the pitches to start for us in the future. It seems like there have been a few examples of this, and I don’t want Morales stuck in the pen.
OTOH, it’s worked really well for some guys. Buchholz is as sharp as a relief pitcher can be. I’m comfortable with Fogg pitching just a couple innings, as long as he isn’t left in so long that he gets to his (seemingly inevitable) blowup inning. But I don’t want some of our super talented prospects to get stuck as relievers.
Transition
from pen to stater is harder on some then others. Pen back to a starter means streaching out the arm for more innings.
But I see your point…if a guy gets too valuable/good in one role he will kinda get stuck in it.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
I seriously think that Morales is suited for 8/9th inning duty at best
This is a guy who’s been hurt by injuries the past two years, and never had the mentality to adjust when the lineup came up for the second time. I’d love to have him in the rotation, trust me, but unless he proves his ability to get through major league lineups more than once as a starter, then he isn’t really suited for the role.
I’d love to see some more Morales/Street shutdown in the 8th and 9th, and eventually Weathers/Morales domination in the future. Plus, we have Friedrich who is a super prospect in the minors and could see rotation duty in 2010.
by bballrox4717 on Jul 20, 2009 11:02 AM MDT up reply actions
I think you underestimate Morales as a starter.
Sure he’s been hit with injuries and inconsistency. But he has enough variety in his pitches to be a starting pitcher. Other than stamina and the ability to pitch long into ball games, the biggest thing that distinguishes starting pitcher from relieving pitcher is their arsenal. Does Morales have enough variety in type of pitch, velocity, break, etc. to be a starting pitcher? Without a doubt, yes.
That being said, his consistency in hitting the strike zone absolutely slays me. But this is something you can work on. It was one of Ubaldo’s problems when he came up, but Ubaldo has gotten his BB count way down, and I think Morales can too.
I don’t disagree that Morales would be great in the pen – I think you’re absolutely right. But I think his talent would be wasted.
I agreed with you right up to this statement
But I think his talent would be wasted.
This assumes that a starter is more valuable to a team then a relief pitcher. As we’ve seen it’s very important to have a strong pen as well as a strong rotation. To me, it’s trying to get the best pitchers in the games, when ever that may be.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
I definitely don't think that at all,
And I see your point about getting the best pitchers in games. Especially when we’re right in the middle of trying to win the Wild Card NL West.
My point is that most Starters can become relievers (and many do as they get older) but it’s much more difficult for relievers to become starters. That’s where I think Frankie’s talent would be wasted, if he got stuck in the bullpen forever.
Right--starters pitch more innings
So even with the heightened leverage of an 8th inning guy, if a player has starter ability, it’s likely he has a greater impact as a starter.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
My sentiments exactly.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Jul 20, 2009 12:47 PM MDT up reply actions
Starters are more valuable to a team than relief pitchers. Period.
However, if you have five starters better than Morales (which arguably we do at the moment) then he’s the seventh best pitching arm we have (behind Street IMO). Getting him in games makes sense…but in the future, if one of the starters in our rotation falters, I’d rather have Morales to take their place than to remain in the eighth inning.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Jul 20, 2009 12:47 PM MDT up reply actions
Yes, you're absolutely right about Morales having the pitch arsenal to be a great starter
but again, as you said, that’s not everything. So out of the big three things you said distinguishes starter from reliever, he has pitch variety. What he doesn’t have, though, is stamina, due to injuries, and the ability to pitch deep in the ballgames, for the reason you said below: consistency in the strike zone. If he cannot learn consistency in the strike zone as a starter, then he needs to be a reliever, and as of right now, the Rockies don’t have the time or need to have him build up stamina and get more consistency. Morales is pretty much the set up guy with Corpas barring a trade for a proven guy, which is a role he’s excelled at so far (with small sample size of course). The time for determining if Morales is a starter or not is in Spring Training; though with Francis coming back, most likely taking Marquis’s rotation spot when he leaves, he may not even have a spot there, and would need to prove he’s better than one of the five guys, a difficult task for a rotation with the 2nd best value in the MLB. Does Morales have better stuff than the people in the rotation now? Absolutely. But does Morales have the command of anyone in the rotation? Besides maybe De la Rosa, no. Overtaking De la Rosa in the rotation would be his only chance, and given De la Rosa’s horrible experiences in the bullpen, it may not be a good idea. It’s not wasting talent, as you say, it’s utilizing it to it’s best potential, and it’s in the bullpen I believe, where his talent is used best, given the guys that we have in the staff right now, and most likely next year.
by bballrox4717 on Jul 20, 2009 11:38 AM MDT up reply actions
Excuse me, mistake
“Does Morales have better stuff than the people in the rotation now? Absolutely.” That should say everybody but Jimenez.
by bballrox4717 on Jul 20, 2009 11:42 AM MDT up reply actions
I can't argue that Morales is not ready to start right now.
But I think he can work on the stamina and the consistency to. I really like Ubaldo as an example of this. When he first came up, Ubaldo wasn’t all that great- he didn’t last very long into games, his location of pitches was bad, and it seemed like his only pitch was the 98 mph fastball. But because he was able to improve in every single one of these areas, he is now ace material.
I don’t think Morales is quite as good as Ubaldo, but he is still young(23, I think) and it’s too early to write off his career as bullpen material only.
Well yeah
I mean, if Hammel didn’t become what he has, Morales would be in the rotation NOW. One injury and he might be again
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 3:06 PM MDT up reply actions
I'm pretty sure the Rockies and A's have talked about Wuertz
In case you haven’t noticed, there’s a direct line from O’Dowd’s office to Beane’s lately. If I had to guess on a reliever we add, it would be him or Cla Meredith.
Beane and O'Dowd seem to be BFF's
in fact so much I look to Oakland for a trade. I just hope the Rockies don’t give up too much.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
Cla Meredith
was this before or after Meredith was just traded to the Orioles?
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
The trade went down after your initial mention of him
so credibility intact
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 19, 2009 6:23 PM MDT up reply actions
I thought that since Meredith
was now an Oriole trading him to the Rockies would be an easier thing to do.
I think this trade is a precursor to the Orioles trading Beaz (the wish) and Sherrill.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
Tyler Walker DFA by Philly
Might be an interesting pickup. ERA of 1.64, 5/1 K to walk ratio in the majors.
He had one bad game against Atlanta and pitched well in the minors before his callup. Not many innings so his arm is fresh.
Given his experience, I think he can refuse a minor league assignment but I could wrong. If not, the Phillies might be willing to part with him for a b level prospect.
He has late game experience and knows the NL West.
Unless
Walker has learned a new pitch or something, I don’t think he’d really contribute any more than the guys we currently have. He’s also a flyball pitcher which doesn’t help much at Coors…
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
Conceptually agree but
Walker’s GO/AO at Citizens was ok. Where he struggled was at Tropicana field. His career GO/AO is 1.11. Take the Tropicana games out of his 2009 numbers and he is at his career average.
The best reliever on our staff, Huston Street, has a career GO/AO of .94, and a 2009 ratio of .97.
Now I am not claiming Walker’s GO/AO ratio is at Cook/Marquis levels. Or that Walker equals Street in abilities.
But Huston Street is proving that you can survive in Coors without a dominant sinker, if you don’t hurt yourself with walks and can strike people out, which Walker can do.
I guess his minor league stats
didn’t look too appealing.
I still think our best bet would be to take a decent minor league starter and put him in the pen.
I mentioned it earlier in this thread but I also forgot to mention that Taylor Buchholz was also a beneficiary of this…
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
Working on other things in Minors
The experienced pitchers are often trying to work things out in the minors like regaining arm strength or working on mechanics. Hard to read too much into it.
But I agree, we need to find out what we have in the minors.
I don't see where they can make a better trade
You look at each position. I am pretty happy about our players. If we traded for a second basemen, it is hard to imagine that we would get an big improvement. Maybe we could trade to get a better utility guy than Omar Quintanila, but I even like him. There are not many weak spots on the Rockies, except relief pitching.
But a guy like EY2 is an upgrade to Q...
… when it’s September, and you call him up.
You all are making me consider an EY2 trade more and more. Barmes is playing well this year. It had better bring in a big time stud reliever to give up a guy like Eric Young, Jr, but it would really help the Rockies right now. Our starters are all throwing too many innings (especially Ubaldo).
Starters
I really feel that Jim Tracy does not have confidence in our guys. I don’t know how to do this, but I feel for sure that he has allowed our starters to go quite a bit longer in innings and pitches than Hurdle.
I really don’t mind that for Marquis or Cook, but I do for the other guys. I do not want Ubaldo throwing too many 127 pitch games.
I found on Baseball-Reference this the pitch totals for our starters. With a little work, I have come up with this.
Hurdle did not allow the pitchers to throw more than 115 pitches this year. As I remember he has always been this way. Tracy has allowed two games over 120, (127 by Ubaldo and 125 by Cook), and 8 more over 110. Hurdle only allowed the pitchers to go over 110 3 times.
Ubaldo has gone from averaging 104 pitches with Hurdle to 111 with Tracy. All of our big five pitchers have thrown more pitches under Tracy. Cook has gone from 86 under Hurdle to 101 under Tracy.
Tracy realizes the problems with the relievers, and lacks confidence in them. As a result he is throwing our starters longer.
I do not think this is a problem for Cook. I do see it as a problem for Ubaldo.
We started winning about the time Tracy started letting the starters go longer.
I think it’s kind of obvious that one is connected to the other.
Now do we need some better relievers? Absolutely. But not to limit the rotation’s pitch count.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
You say that now...
… but when it’s September and Ubaldo’s arm is about to fall off from throwing too many pitches, we’ll say “I told you so”. Tracy is heading down a dangerous path by letting the starters consistently throwing that many pitches.
That's nonsense. Starters have for too long been babied with low pitch counts.
The number of pitches isn’t whats going to hurt an arm. Its the type of pitches. Ask Nolan Ryan or any other power pitcher.
And if Ubaldo’s arm falls off from overuse, just go ahead and say “I told you so”. If he has arm troubles, it’ll be for a reason other than throwing 111 heaters a game.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
How many pitches is bad?
Jimenez has been between 110-120 mostly. I haven’t seen a study yet that shows this range is any more detrimental to the short term or long term health of pitchers than a 100 pitch limit. If you have one, I’d be curious to read it.
If there was such a study, what conclusion could one draw?
The numbers of pitchers who throw that many pitches are few, and it’s difficult to determine why injuries happen.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
I think there's been work on
pitchers have subpar/injury marred seasons following seasons where they throw 3,500+ pitches. Not sure if it’s been proven.
At any rate, I dont think I have a problem letting guys throw 110~ pitches but if 125, 130 became the norm I might become a little concerned. I also realize this all appears entirely arbitrary and chances are pitch-endurance has much more to do with genetics but whatever…
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
127 pitches by Ubaldo does matter
Once is really not a big deal. If it starts happening too much, it will be a problem.
Nolan Ryan used to throw 180 pitches often. He got through it well. I saw him pitch many times. Frank Tanana did the same thing, and had is HOF chances and his 100 MPH fastball taken from him.
by brian8065 on Jul 19, 2009 9:01 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't think it's obvious
The Hurdle team lost in all sort of ways. Back when the 1-run record was like 0-10, I looked through all the games, and found it wasn’t just one thing. Sometimes it was failures with RISP situations or runner on 3rd, less than 2 out situations, sometimes the pen gave up runs (several of these games were when Street and Corpas were still mucking it up).
I wouldn’t be surprised if Tracy has stretched out the starters because of the unreliability of the pen. However, two of the 4 7th inning leads that have been blown under Tracy (and I think I posted in another thread that this is more than the Dodgers and Giants have blown all year) were blown by starters.
I don’t know if there were games when he could have pulled the starter earlier if he had a decent reliever. Probably just a couple, like that one Ubaldo game that the Rockies won (which I did agree with, as it was one game). But it’s nice to have options, and know you’re letting the starter pitch into the 7th/8th because you think he still has it and not because you fear your middle relief.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
I think the really great thing about all of this is that we're arguing about why we're winning and not why we're losing :)
I agree that we could use better middle relief. I just don’t think the starters have been bad enough to have pulled them if we had better relievers. Hurdle didn’t have the patience to let the game work out IMO.
This whole pitch count business has grown tiresome over the years. These are young guys who have strong bodies. They are capable of pitching deep into games if they can locate. For whatever reason, coaches haven’t let them develop.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
by pedalpusher on Jul 19, 2009 10:02 PM MDT up reply actions
Pitch counts
This is something that has evolved as the game has. Back 50 – 70 years ago, pitchers threw more pitches and completed more games. They had soft spots in the line-ups they faced, and didn’t throw their best stuff all game.
Now things are different. I am 49, and when I first started watching baseball teams had 9 pitchers.
Today pitch counts matter. So far I do not have a big problem with what Tracy is doing. I do think he is letting the starters stay in there when they are tired, because he lacks faith in the pen.
by brian8065 on Jul 19, 2009 10:54 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
The whole specialization thing has contributed as well.
Pitchers sit in the bullpen with the sole mission to get one or two hitters out. Guys just never develop the arm strength to go multiple innings IMO. How many times do we see relievers who are not available to pitch because they worked three days in a row. Never mind that they probably pitched less than 3 innings.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
There are relative weak spots,
The problem is that with most of these are positions where the current player is supposed to be part of the team’s glorious future, such as third base and center field and possibly even catcher. So a trade for Scott Rolen would likely help the Rockies this season, but would probably be expensive and sort of pointless for a one year run.
I don’t know where I’m going with this, other than maybe keeping an open mind to out of the box solutions might be helpful. I like how the Brewers did this today in trading for Lopez, as he definitely adds value when you look at what the Brewers were getting from 2nd+3rd+ their bench combined, even though it might not be so obvious when looking at one or the other.
It does make sense
But it’s hard to see O’Dowd trying this approach due to the added complexity of such a deal. That is, there’s the difficulty of upgrading from positions that are average/slightly below and the additional players/roster changes that would be necessary to pull off such a deal. So, if he were to try such a thing, it seems like an off-season type of deal.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Apparently Michael Wuertz has the hardest pitch to hit in the majors….
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 19, 2009 7:57 PM MDT reply actions
That article says
De La Rosa’s slider is 5th hardest. Woo
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
It doesn't matter if it's the hardest pitch to hit if he does not command it well
and De la Rosa and Wuertz both have had that problem. If they had the best slider and commanded it well consistently, well Wuertz would be a closer and De la Rosa wouldn’t crack down sometimes. It also helps to have a combo of good pitches instead of one really good one; it’s how Halladay and Haren have succeeded for so long. 4 above average pitches that are commanded well consistently.
by bballrox4717 on Jul 19, 2009 9:23 PM MDT up reply actions
I haven't been able to watch his starts but
Has De La Rosa been able to rebound from hits/walks well lately or has the wheel squeaking erupted into the wheels falling off lately?
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
He hasn't imploded when things get dicey as he did in the past.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
by pedalpusher on Jul 19, 2009 10:04 PM MDT up reply actions
Good to hear
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
It's interesting because
as I browse fangraphs I see that both the slider and the changeup have been awesome above average pitches but his fastball has been terrible – and it has throughout his career. However, the thing gets about 10 inches of vertical movement and 10 inches of horizontal movement which is insane. Especially the horizontal movement.
I was also looking at how many times his pitches have registered for strikes and how many for balls and its not even close – the guy throws everything for balls.
I wonder if he just started aiming his fastball low and in the middle of the zone – it’d tail away well from righties, if that’d change anything. I guess he could be trying that already.
Or maybe his control will just always suck…
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
I take it everyone is opposed to trading minor leaguers?
Which ones, or which ones would you part with for what type of pitcher?
E.g., which minor leaguers would you trade for Wuertz? (Let’s assume Beane doesn’t want Atkins, Spilly or Q.)
The LA Times printed an rumor that the Orioles asked the Angels for two “top prospects” in return for Sherrill, who is somewhat similar to Wuertz in that he has two arb years left after 2009 (I think Wuertz has two.) Now, asking is one thing, getting is another. I don’t think they’ll see a top prospect, given how teams covet them, but I could see a team sending two lesser ones (Hynick-level?). Not sure where EY2 would rank…I assume he’s not a “top” prospect – on the Rockies, that would be Rogers, Chacin, Friedrich, and maybe the infielder whom Rox Girl has pointed out but I keep forgetting (Gomez?).
Anyway, that’s the problem with getting even a Wuertz-level reliever. They are expensive. Yet if you don’t shoot that high, you’re back to the roulette of running guys out there to see how they do. In which case, you might as well stand pat, see how Morales, Corpas and maybe some minor leaguers do.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
My problem with trading a top prospect
for a reliever…is the Rockies top prospects…are pitchers.
Follow with me…..Chacin is our top prospect still in the minors right now……why trade him for say Sherill straight up…when Chacin if thrown into a relief role could probably do the job? (not saying the Rockies should do that). I’m just saying how does that make the Rockies better? They just gave up a young starting prospect, for a relief pitcher that is only controllable for 2 years, and did they really get an arm better then the arm they just gave up?
Now…the Rockies do have a lot of pitching prospects. If you are talking the next rung, then it makes more sense. If it was an OF..it makes even more sense.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
my concern with this
is that we already have long relievers. Even calling up whatever arm isn’t going to help the problem, because we’d be getting another low-leverage-situation relief pitcher.
That said, I still don’t move Chacin for Sherrill or anything like that.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 20, 2009 9:40 AM MDT up reply actions
A starter to a reliever
doesn’t mean starter to “long reliever only”, it could be starter to one inning middle or back end reliever.
The Rockies are not going to have all their starting pitching prospects make the majors as starters. While it’s true you can never have too many starters, having a 10 man starting rotation isn’t going to happen either.
Lets look at next year for example:
Starters that are a lock:
Cook
Jimenez
Returning:
Hammel
DeLa Rosa
Francis (who knows right?)
Minor league guys that have at least a shot next year:
Rodgers, Roe, Chacin, Hynick, Deduno, Greg Smith, Greg Reynolds, Johnson
That’s 13 guys for 5 spots. For some of these guys to make the majors with the Rockies (in their careers not just this year or next) it will have to be through the pen. Some of them, will need to stay starters, Also just cause you pitched relief, doesn’t mean a guy can’t return to the rotation at some point in his career either. Starter and reliever are not mutually exclusive or permanent conditions.
My point is why trade a minor league starter, for a reliever…when the Rockies are going to have to make some of those minor league starters into relievers anyway? Why not just keep the prospect we know, then make a BAD trade (and some of the stuff I’m seeing floated out there…I think would be bad deals. A good deal is a different story)
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
Thank you Redhawk, and oh, you forgot Morales to the rotation mix
That being said, I think that the Rockies should probably call up Rogers or Deduno if you want bullpen help now over someone struggling like Peralta or Rincon.
That being said, I think you should also consider open bullpen spots: Buccholz will be back around June next year, Corpas and Street are locks for the bullpen next year, and Morales has to be a starter candidate. Daley should be close to a rock, but we have to figure to get rid of Rincon, Peralta, and Fogg, for someone like Deduno, whose arm is wasted in the minors. Hynick, Smith, Reynolds, and Johnson (who I doubt makes it) don’t seem to be bullpen guys, more like an innings eaters, while people like Roe, Deduno, and Morales seem to be guys who don’t have the stamina to make it, but the stuff. That being said, I like the idea of having Rogers replace Marquis next year, keeping Chacin in the minors for more development (he’s only 21, so it won’t hurt).
So what does that leave for the Rockies to trade? The innings eaters and second tier starters in A+ and A…..with Graham and Nicasio being our best of those second tier pitchers, meaning that in a trade for a reliever, Hynick is the most likely trade chip for someone worthwhile. Hynick +outfielder + pitcher seems to be a haul that the Orioles could realistically accept for Sherrill. I don’t like getting rid of Hynick, but it’s the best option.
by bballrox4717 on Jul 20, 2009 10:55 AM MDT up reply actions
I think Herges will be the next callup
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 20, 2009 10:57 AM MDT up reply actions
I agree
but I worry about what happens if we send down Peralta or Rincon for him.
by bballrox4717 on Jul 20, 2009 11:09 AM MDT up reply actions
I don't see Herges as being an improvement
over Peralta or Rincon or Daly, but just another equal.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
likewise
but again, he’s just depth. Can’t hurt.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 20, 2009 12:53 PM MDT up reply actions
Looking
at the pen and the rotation together for openings is probably smart. It shows more openings. But there is a vagabond situation with many jobs in the pen every year with pitchers making the “non-roster invitee” list to help round out a pen, like Rincon or Peralta.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
We'd have to be banking on more magic
a la David Price 08 kind of situation. I’d love to see Chacin come up and suddenly become OMG NAILS (or whoever, you get the idea), I just feel as if it’s a big reach.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 20, 2009 10:57 AM MDT up reply actions
A big reason why he had bullpen duty in the playoffs was
because the Rays needed the spot locked down, and having a super prospect, who in his September callup was great, made the whole lot of sense at the time. It was also done by the Dodgers with James McDonald in the playoffs as well, with good results. Another reason why bullpen duty made the most sense for good prospects in September/playoffs is because the minor league season is over, meaning that they don’t have to worry about the rotation with these prospects anymore.
If the Rockies did it, I would look for Rogers to be the one in the bullpen, not Chacin who is still developing his stuff to it’s full use, unlike Rogers who is close to done with development, and Rogers has more major leagye ready plus stuff.
by bballrox4717 on Jul 20, 2009 11:08 AM MDT up reply actions
like I said
(or whoever, you get the idea)
IIRC september callup guys are not eligible for the postseason, or something like that. What’s the ruling on playoff roster eligibility?
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 20, 2009 12:54 PM MDT up reply actions
They have to be on the active roster...
which is 25 for the playoffs and all other times but is 40 for September. As long as the Rockies have one of those September callups on the 25 man roster for the playoffs, they’re golden.
Eschew Obfuscation!
ok that works
now correct me if I’m wrong, but any waiver/trade-acquired players AFTER 9/1 are ineligible for the postseason, correct?
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 20, 2009 2:41 PM MDT up reply actions
It's a little more complicated
The player must be on the active roster on Aug 31. So if they call you up in Sept., that’s not good enough.
If you’ve got a player on the 60-day DL, you can replace him with someone from the same position with another player that was in the organization on Aug 31. So you could potentially see something goofy like Buchholz being used to add one of the minor leaguers. I’m not sure if this is how Price got on the playoff roster, but it’s how the Angels got Rodriguez on theirs in 2002.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
perfect, thank you.
I’ve read this before but couldn’t recall it.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 21, 2009 11:48 AM MDT up reply actions
I wouldn't do Sherrill for Chacin either
and I think my posts have been clear about not suggesting that.
And I don’t think Chacin is as likely to be as good as Sherrill for the rest of the season.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
There's absolutely
no reason to trade for Sherrill as long as the Orioles are asking for what they are…
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
So, there's no sense even asking?
As the deadline nears and they have no takers, it’s not worth seeing if the O’s will accept another player?
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
as long as the Orioles are asking for what they are
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
How do you know what they're asking
until you put down the LA Times and make a phone call?
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
I don't remember saying
sever all communication with the Orioles. All I said was based off of what they’ve supposedly wanted from other teams for George Sherrill, it wouldn’t make sense for the Rockies to trade for him as the Oriole asking price at this point in the season is much too high. Maybe that will change later on in the season, but right now I don’t think it’s worth it.
Sherrill is also a guy who’s been inconsistent, is enjoying only his second quality season and also has a low BABIP against and a relatively high strand rate so there’s potential for some regression this year and farther down the line.
If his improvements in control are for real, then he may be worth a quality arm or something but he’s been up and down with his control season to season.
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
Your response to each of my posts
Was that the O’s were asking too much, without attributing any source. The only source so far that I know of is the report in the LA Times, which has since trickled out.
If your real objection is that you don’t like Sherrill, you should have said that and saved both of us time.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Chill
It gets hard to have a discussion when you’re putting words in my mouth.
Sorry for not citing my sources. Here is the full explanation I was too careless to elaborate upon in earlier comments.
There are a few things complicated about trading for Sherrill. The first is the steep asking price of the Orioles (Shaikin, 2009, Zrebiec, 2009), who have allegedly asked for two top-level prospects from the Angels in Brandon Wood and Trevor Reckling (Shaikin, 2009). What makes this particularly difficult for the Rockies is that the bulk of their prospect depth is at middle infield or starting pitching. With Marquis no guarantee to be back next season, and Aaron Cook signed only through 2011 (though with a mutual option for 2012) (Harding, 2007), as well as the unproven and/or erratic pasts of Jason Hammel and Jorge De La Rosa, the only “safe” member of the rotation down the line is Ubaldo Jimenez. I don’t feel it’s in the best interest of the Rockies to trade any of their starting pitching, even more so since the Rockies are uniquely disadvantaged when it comes to attracting big-name free agent pitchers as well as financially limited.
Another problem is that the Orioles are supposedly seeking a corner-infield, impact bat in return for Sherrill (Rosenthal, 2009; Zrebiec, 2009). Seeing as to how the Rockies no longer possess a big corner-infield impact bat after trading Ryan Shealy and losing Joe Koshansky (and assuming that the O’s don’t covet either Garrett Atkins or Kiel Roling), it seems that a trade between the two would be unlikely unless the Rockies are willing to make an outrageous offer.
This coupled with the large number of teams (five and counting) interested in Sherrill (Zrebiec, 2009) makes it much more unlikely that the Rockies can trade for Sherrill without giving up a hefty amount. Outbidding other teams using prospects the Orioles aren’t entirely seeking would be costly.
Furthermore, not to say that Sherrill won’t be a solid addition, but currently his value is at it’s zenith as underlying peripheral statistics indicate there is some room for regression and that Sherrill is pitching somewhat over his head. While this regression can’t be viewed as a certainty, it must be acknowledged as a possibility thus increasing the import/export disparity already plaguing the theoretical trade.
Of course, all of this becomes moot if all of the reports thus far turn out to be untrue and that the Orioles are merely bluffing with their demands and/or change interest in the defensive position of the prospects they’re seeking.
It would be in the Rockies best interest to monitor the situation and keep in touch with their General Manager Andy Macphail.
References
Harding, T. (2007). Rockies, Cook agree on new deal.
Rosenthal, K. (2009). How inclined are O’s to trade closer Sherrill?
Shaikin, B. (2009). Preparations begin for 2010 All-Star game.
Zrebiec, J. (2009). Sherrill: ‘I want to be here’.
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
Read that thread and show me where I put words in your mouth.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
“So, there’s no sense even asking?” – Responding to something I didn’t quite say and then repeating it a second time while ignoring my qualifier.
“If your real objection is that you don’t like Sherrill, you should have said that and saved both of us time.” – Didn’t say I dislike Sherill.
My real objection is neither communicating with the Orioles nor Sherrill. I’d be more than happy to put down the LA Times and give MacPhail a phone call but if the reports of their asking price are true then it’s a bit overkill. It’s premium prices for an unestablished commodity.
I wish the trade could be something more like Deduno and Atkins for Sherrill, but then again, I’m not particularly high on Deduno and poor Atkins deserves a shot but with Stewart here it’s just becoming clutter.
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
I think the thing that is getting lost
is that yea Morales can probably be a dominant reliever and that he has starter stuff, but right now a lot of names that are being mentioned for the possible minor league starter to major league reliever transition are all guys that show a lot of promise as ML starters.
Buchholz never really had consistently good seasons in the minors starting but yet his stuff played up well in the ’pen.
I guess I’m not familiar enough with all of our minor leaguers but there’s got to be people who we could put in the bullpen without running the “risk” of having a capable ML starter becoming married to the role of late-inning reliever (which is the concern with someone like Morales)…
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
Yeah, this was pretty much the point I was trying to make...
Then I got distracted by the Morales conversation…Ooh, look! Shiny object!
/Chases after it.
/Get hand stuck in a trap.
In all seriousness, I was just using Morales as a scenario for what I don’t want to happen to any of the Rockies’ prospects. I chose Morales because I know the most about him(or at least compared to our minor league pitchers), and because it seems like there is a very real possibility of Morales getting pigeonholed. IMO, bringing up a minor league pitcher to be a bullpen arm is not a better alternative to trading someone for a proven and talented MLB bullpen arm.
I mean
it would be nice to be able to trade for a proven and talented MLB arm but they’re going to carry a price – which is fine and to be expected and if we can afford it and it makes sense, then lets do it I guess. But if we’re trying to trade for like lower level arms (less proven and/or less talented) I just think we have that in the system and it might be wise to call up arms which might be useful to acclimate prospects to the bigs, limit innings on prospect arms, and help the bullpen.
Clearly, the starter to reliever doesn’t always work and we don’t need another Mark Redman or Kip Wells but I think we have to have some starters in the minors with at least two solid pitches that can play up in the ’pen well.
Probably wouldn’t be having this conversation at all if Casey Weathers didn’t get injured…
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
I guess it's the tradeoff
Cash him in as a bullpen pitcher NOW, or work with him for 2 more seasons to make him a #3 pitcher at best.
He has the stuff, but i’m convinced he’ll be too much of a headcase to really reach his potential.
I personally say trade him as part of a package for some high end whoever, or work on having a 6-7-8-9 of Morales, Buchholz, Corpas, Street in 2010.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 20, 2009 12:57 PM MDT up reply actions
Is the question about whether to move Morales (or other minor league starters) to the pen for the rest of '09?
I don’t see how it necessarily pigeonholes him to have him helping in the pen now. It can help, since he will be pitching in high pressure innings. Once spring training of ’10 rolls around, he can go back to his starter routine and try to make the rotation again.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Could not have come soon enough...
…now let’s hope he still has his stuff.
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