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WAR Lords of the Diamond (First Basemen)

This just in: Todd Helton is good.

More photos » David Zalubowski - AP

This just in: Todd Helton is good.

After a relatively depressing look at the "best" catchers in Rockies history, my next focus is the Rockies' first base position. First base is a position that is near and dear to my heart, having played it during high school, and it is one from which a MLB club expects to receive a large chunk of its offense. On that account, the Rockies have done quite well for themselves--what they lack in quality, they more than make up for in quality.

Indeed, the Rockies have only a pair of first basemen in their history that have started over 100 games at the position--that would be Todd Helton (1690) and Andres Galarraga (677). But what a pair! I'll discuss just how good each was after the jump.

Once again, here's my methodology in ranking players by WAR:

1. I only used stats accumulated in seasons in which they mostly played for the Rockies.

2. The categories used were: career with Rockies, best three consecutive years with Rockies (establishes average production), and best single year with the Rockies (establishes peak production).

3. If the players spent less than five (or three) years with the Rockies, their career total was used in the other metrics as well. If the player was at different positions for different years, the player would be considered for the position in which he had the most starts (or greatest impact, at my discretion) for the Rockies.

4. The players were ranked in each category. Those ranks were added and averaged out--the lowest average rank was the most valuable Rockie.

5. The data used was only for seasons that were completed (e.g. not 2009).

Once again, I used Sean Smith's career WAR database to gather data for this article. Here's my primer on what WAR is and how it is calculated.

Star-divide

 First Basemen

As I mentioned above, there were two players that stood well above the rest, so I'm going to rank two utility players here that made an impact at first base as well in addition to Helton and Galarraga.

Without further ado...the rankings:

1. Todd Helton

Career WAR: 53.9 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 21.7, 2000-2002 (1st)
Top Season: 8.8, 2000 (1st)
Average Rank: 1

This just in: Todd Helton is pretty good. The Rockies' 1st rounder (8th overall) in 1995 has been the starter at first base for the last eleven seasons and counting, starting 140+ games in each season from 1998-2007. Just how good has Helton been? Let's look at his numbers:

Year wOBA WAR
1997 .352 -0.2
1998 .390 2.5
1999 .413 2.2
2000 .476 8.8
2001 .456 6.7
2002 .422 6.2
2003 .450 7.7
2004 .455 7.4
2005 .417 4.6
2006 .375 2.2
2007 .399 5.2
2008 .347 0.8
PA Adj. .421 .007573

Some notes on these figures:

  • In only two years (his short stint in 1997 and his injury-plagued 2008) has Helton been even a below league-average player (2 WAR).
  • In a previous session I looked at Helton's value to the Rockies according to Fangraphs' value stat, which has been available since 2002. Helton has produced $109.8 million worth of value for the Rockies in that time period (which doesn't include two of his best years).
  • Given that league average wOBA usually sits around .333, Helton has been ridiculously good (his average production is better than Matt Holliday was for the Rockies last year). In fact, Helton's career .421 wOBA places him above many Hall of Famers. If only the Hall voters focused on such statistics when voting. Who knows, maybe Helton will have a WS ring to boost his candidacy?
  • Helton has been worth about .076 RAR for every plate appearance. Extrapolated over a 600 PA season (considered the norm by Fangraphs for wOBA), that's 4.54 WAR/season. 

 2. Andres Galarraga

Career WAR: 11.3 (2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 6.3, 1995-1997 (2nd)
Top Season: 3.6, 1993 (2nd)
Average Rank: 2

The Big Cat, El Gato Supremo. Andres Galarraga was my favorite player on the early Rockies and perhaps my favorite ever. His unique batting stance, gigantic homeruns, and imposing presence at the plate made Galarraga a player that seemed larger than life to a five year old kid in 1993--and a big part of the reason that I became hooked on baseball. His poster still hangs on my wall alongside other Denver heroes John Elway and Terrell Davis (and no, I don't have a girlfriend--there may be some correlation there).

Maybe these outsized memories are why I was a little surprised that Galarraga didn't provide more offense for the Rockies during his five-year tenure with the club. In actuality, the Big Cat had only three above average seasons with Colorado (93, 96, 97)--and those seasons were only about 1 win above league average (3.6, 3.4, 3.0). It is also likely that had the '94 season not been shortened by strike that Galarraga would have had another similar season then too.

This just goes to show you how gaudy traditional stats can sometimes clash with metrics like WAR. Galarraga led the NL in batting in 1993, in both HR and RBI in 1996, and RBI in 1997...and his wOBAs match up, with .426 in 1993, .402 in 1996, and .417 in 1997.

My best guess is that both the insane Coors park factor from those years brought down El Gato's wRAA and that Galarraga was really a butcher on the field. Having been less than ten when Andres played, I remember little except his exploits at the plate.

Even if he doesn't quite measure up the way I thought he would, Galarraga is right where I envisioned him: a long way separating him from third place and much more in between him and first place.

3. Jon Vander Wal

Career WAR: 2.1 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 1.8, 1994-1996 (3rd)
Top Season: 1.0, 1998 (3rd)
Average Rank: 3

Jon Vander Wal played several positions over parts of five seasons (1994-1998) for the Rockies (41 games at first base, 42 in left field, 34 in right field, and 2 at DH), but his is rightfully better known as a pinch hitter extraordinaire. In fact, theoldgrizzlybear wrote about Vander Wal in a previous edition of Rockies Retro. I've included Vander Wal here because his 41 games played at 1st base ranks 5th in Rockies history (Garrett Atkins is 3rd with 91--but I'm evaluating him with other 3rd basemen).

Outside of a horrible 1997 (.174/.255/.228), Vander Wal performed more than admirably in his role with the Rockies--particularly in 1995 (.347/.432/.594) and 1998 (.288/.380/.548). If the Rockies had given him more plate appearances--the most he had in a season with the Rockies was 172 in 1996--he could have turned into an above average player by WAR standards, but the Rockies had quite an outfield and first-basemen those years.

Vander Wal is the player that I hope Seth Smith never turns into--someone pigeonholed into a pinch-hitting role who could have performed much better in an everyday role. Indeed, when Vander Wal was in Pittsburgh in 2000 (his one season above 500 PA), he slugged 24 HRs and had a .972 OPS (and 2.9 WAR) when given a full season to play at age 34--not unlike Russell Branyan this year.

4. Jeff Baker

Career WAR: 0.7 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 0.5, 2006-2008 (4th)
Top Season: 0.6, 2008 (4th)
Average Rank: 4

Finally, we have the player with the fourth-most games played at the position with 44: German-born, American-bred Jeff Baker. Baker has been distinguished in his Rockies career by his streaky hitting and his super-utility role, playing five positions. Baker has actually played more games at second base (52) than first, but like I mentioned, he's got the fourth-most games played at first. Jeff also has played multiple games at third (24), his natural position, right field (26), left field (8), and DH (2).

Drafted in the fourth round of 2002, Baker has always been a potent (but hugely streaky) bat, even garnering NL Player of the Week honors last June when he hit .435 with 4 HRs and 7 RBIs. Last year he had an above average .340 wOBA, but in 2007 Baker had a horrible .285 wOBA. Unfortunately, Jeff has never been good enough with the glove (or consistent enough with the bat) to justify an everyday position...and he will never earn one with the Rockies, as he was traded today to the Chicago Cubs.

That's it for first base...next week I look at second basemen--a position where several players have over 100 games played for the Rockies.

Poll
Is Todd Helton a Hall of Famer?
Yes, he's consistently been an excellent hitter, fielder, and teammate
172 votes
No, the Coors factor as well as the shadow of PED accusations puts his numbers into question
19 votes
No, his numbers and limited playoff exposure simply aren't good enough for Hall inclusion
30 votes

221 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 18 comments |

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The poll

needs a “maybe”.

If Todd plays the next couple of years as well as he’s playing this one, then the voters will probably understand that maybe his lack of production was from his back injury.

2000 hits doesn’t get him in IMO.

by rockieprogress on Jul 2, 2009 11:07 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

I think people will umm and ahh and then take the Coors effect as the deciding (negative) factor. If he is on the 104-man list then it’s a certain no, obviously. And it will probably come out before the end of his career.

by biondino on Jul 2, 2009 11:12 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

The real issue with that list

is that NOT being on it doesn’t clear a person either. There is no way to prove a negative, so if Helton never, ever took steroids, there is no test that will say that.

But I’ll also add, that being on Roids to me is not an exclusion to the HOF. Was a player one of the best in his era has and should always be the real question. The players don’t compare from the steriod era to the 60’s high mound era, to the dead ball era, and shouldn’t be compared.

Records however, is a different debate, as I think the Home Run records should belong to Maris and Aaron again.

by Redhawk on Jul 2, 2009 11:36 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Career OPS +

Helton has a career OPS +, which takes into consideration Coors Field, of 141. This is better than Duke Snider, Reggie Jackson and dozens of other Hall members. Take into consideration his defense, OBP and other factors, Todd should make it.

Todd gets a bad rap for Coors Field. Ichiro’s career OPS+ is 118, yet he makes the All Star team every year.

by brian8065 on Jul 2, 2009 11:38 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

More complicated than that

Esp. as OPS+ likely underrates Helton due to underweighing OBP. It weights OBP and SLG equally, when their actual value in producing runs is not equal.

I don’t like finding the worst members (not that either of these is the worst) and then comparing the member…it doesn’t seem that’s how most members vote.

The other thing is, Snider was a CF on 6 world series teams, including 2 winners, not to mention being on a couple of the more famous and celebrated teams around, so it’s a tough comparison to make. As for Jackson, I’ll use OPS+ for the moment since you brought it up: Helton’s is only 2 points higher and could well be lower by the time he retires. As it is, currently Jackson has over 50 % more PA than Helton, plus his world series heroics. So it’s another difficult comparison to make.

I think the folks who say Helton has to continue to play well have it right. If he retired today, well, 2000 hits and 1169 RBI look pretty low to voters. With 2500+ hits, I think he starts looking more and more appealing to them, Coors and all. His comparative lack of postseason opportunities don’t help, but that he’s always been highly thought of.

Free Seth Smith!

by FooMan on Jul 2, 2009 2:11 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd say Helton Makes it in

however probably not a first ballot kinda guy.

Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg

by wolf213 on Jul 2, 2009 11:50 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't remember the big cat being a "butcher" in the field

In fact, I thought the “Big Cat” nickname came partly from his agility for a big man. But I loved the guy, so I could be remembering with my heart…

Out of curiosity, since it looks like Baker played more games at first than Vanderwal, and Baker was fourth on the 1B games played list, who was #3? Is it Atkins, possibly?

by Junction Rox on Jul 2, 2009 1:40 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

#3 at 1st

Yup, it’s Atkins, jabberwocky mentioned that when he mentioned why he wasn’t ranking Atkins as a 1st baseman. BB-ref lists the top 5 at each position.

I think Galarraga’s WAR totals are “hurt” more by his comparatively low OBP and the enormous home park factors of the time (they were 120-125, meaning the parks were seen as boosting scoring by 40-50%!) than the fielding. Chone’s WAR DB takes the fielding values from his “TotalZone” stat, which uses retrosheet play-by-play data in a sort of quasi-UZR system. (The retrosheet pbp data is not nearly as granular as the data that goes into UZR.)

You can see under fielding on the BB-ref player page for players who were around when retrosheet started recording that level of data. (I can’t quite recall when that started; maybe 1988, though I might be confusing that with pitch counts.)

Galarraga’s worst year with the glove is 6 runs below avg, which is not such a butcher. He got the “big cat” nickname in Montreal and he very likely had slowed down by the time he started tearing it up with the Rockies.

The guy who really gets deflated by park factors and fielding estimates is Dante Bichette. Though frankly, the horrible ‘95 and ’99 fielding scores are such outliers they look like there might have been some inaccurate data unless he was running around with a leg injury or something. However, if even you throw those two years out, that’s still just about 7 WAR in his 7 seasons with the Rockies.

Free Seth Smith!

by FooMan on Jul 2, 2009 2:24 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Big Cat still a delight, though

Not that the stat-y view takes anything away from my enjoyment of Galarraga’s career. I remember when the team picked him up, I couldn’t believe they were reduced to going after what seemed at the time such flotsam and jetsam. Galarraga was something of a stathead whipping boy in the late 80’s due to his low walk and high K rates, and then his knees went and seemingly took his bat with them.

I guess we can chalk it up the recuperative effects of the dry air and the sunshine!

Free Seth Smith!

by FooMan on Jul 2, 2009 2:32 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is Helton HOF?

I agree with “maybe.”

Bill James wrote an interesting essay earlier this year discussing whether Helton is worthy of induction. I’ve forgotten most of the details, but James concludes that Helton is more deserving than some players enshrined in Cooperstown (i.e. Chuck Klein) and comparable to several others. In short, Helton’s candidacy certainly merits serious discussion.

by J. Henry Waugh on Jul 2, 2009 4:35 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Since we're discussing the Hall of Fame,

I just received a review copy of Zev Chafets’ Cooperstown Confidential: Heroes, Rogues, and the Inside Story of the Baseball Hal of Fame. I’ll have a review of it within the next week hopefully.

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jul 2, 2009 8:37 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Not a HOFer.

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jul 2, 2009 8:52 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Look forward to it.

I assume you saw Chris Jaffe’s review on THT.

Studes reviewed a new bio of Satchel Paige; that one also looks interesting.

Free Seth Smith!

by FooMan on Jul 2, 2009 9:33 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here's the deal:

I never thought much of Todd other than the best player on the Rockies for a long time. But over the last 6 years, I have been able to watch Todd through the eyes of other clubs (Cardinals, Cubs, Mariners).

Baseball announcers from these clubs often announce him as the “Probable Hall of Famer from Colorado.” They often compare his numbers to Musial, Mays, Williams, and DiMaggio. He is not just a great batter for average, but his RBI, HR, OPS, and fielding are among the best of his generation, and as far as I know, he has never been mentioned in any steroid talks.

I think he has a 75-90% change at the hall, especially if he can stay productive over the next 2 or 3 years.

-Joe

by jcn7vc on Jul 3, 2009 12:26 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

has never been mentioned in any steroid talks

He has, particularly by former Rox radio announcer Wayne Hagin, but nothing has even been substantiated.

It’s often common practice for broadcasters to talk up some of the better players on opposing teams, especially if that team gets little attention. Sometime that’s just padding from the booth, but I think it’s legitimate in Helton’s case.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 3, 2009 9:15 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Helton and El Gato Grande

First, for the Big Cat, from what I can remember, he was decent on defense. And this is trying to remember him playing, not just looking at his statistics. He made some great plays, but also did make some mistakes so I’d put him around average.
I do still remember that monster shot off of Kevin Brown in Florida though that he hit. Good lordy he crushed that ball.

As for Helton, like Joe said, other announcers talk about him as a future HoFer. I think one time I was watching a game on mlb.tv when we played the Padres or Dbacks, and whoever was pitching struck out Helton and the announcer was stating how he just made a future HOFer look silly. He has some stake, a couple more years producing at a high level, followed by the usual stat filling years might make him a solid consideration.

by TehChamp on Jul 3, 2009 12:05 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

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