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Rox set to avenge pre-ASG series loss to Snakes

25-year-old rookie Clay Zavada is not impressed with Sal Fasano.

More photos » Matt York - AP

25-year-old rookie Clay Zavada is not impressed with Sal Fasano.

Wait.  Didn't we JUST play Arizona at Coors?  Yes...yes we did.  The series loss to the then NL West-cellar dwellars should still be fresh on the mind of the Rockies.  I had written that they posed a surprise threat, and since then, the Diamondbacks are a respectable 8-5. 

I won't repeat too much, as most of the Diamondbacks' story still rings true from the last KYF on them.  The general idea is that they are indeed bad, and the Rockies should take this series without a doubt, but Arizona has been one of the more inopportune teams in the bigs.  As I pointed out Tuesday, Arizona deserves to be above .500, at least according to Matthew Carruth of Fangraphs.

There are four notable changes for Arizona since the last time we saw them over the holiday weekend. 

  • 1B:  Tony Clark has been released, Chad Tracy is benched, and Josh Whitesell has been given the shot to run away with the 1B job.
  • 2B:  Felipe Lopez was traded for two minor leaguers yesterday, robbing the lineup of one of its three productive hitters.  He will be replaced by a Ryan Roberts/Augie Ojeda platoon.
  • SP:  Probably the biggest one - we don't face Dan Haren in the series.
  • RP:  Tony Pena was trade to the White Sox.

Go hang out at AZ Snakepit and remind them we have 3 more wins than them since the start of 2007.  Just don't get yourself banned.

 

Dbacks_mediumArizona Diamondbacks (39-53, L1, 4th) 

Monday-Wednesday: 3-game series at Coors Field


The Bats: D-

They still strike out a bunch, are 3rd worst in average, have just a .319 team wOBA, and they just lost one of their only productive hitters.  The drop from Felipe Lopez to Ryan Roberts or Augie Ojeda is notable.  And that's in a big time offensive park.

They have scratched out 401 runs, 18th in the majors, though coming off a tough series vs St. Louis.  Their Fangraphs hitting value puts them at -45.6 runs, fourth worst in the majors, and their lineup is poorly constructed, as the only hitters with any ability to get on base are sluggers.  Therefore, their table-setters, whoever they may be, will not be setting the table very well.


With the trade of Lopez, the lineup will experience some reshuffling.  I know who the main starting eight are, but I honestly have no clue AJ Hinch's lineup will be, as I haven't seen any indications toward his intentions.  Here's a guess:

LINEUP Avg HR RBI OBP SLG wOBA
Stephen Drew- SS .255 6
35
.327 .426 .323
Gerardo Parra - LF .274 3
30 .318 .408 .311
Justin Upton - RF .292 16 51
.363 .526 .387
Mark Reynolds - 3B .266 24 62
.353 .536 .383
Miguel Montero - C .286 7
22 .357 .453 .348
Josh Whitesell - 1B
.210 0
10 .355 .306 .296
Chris Young - CF .199 6
25
.294 .368 .299
Ryan Roberts -2B .257 0
5
.352 .324 .316

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features two All-Star caliber players (Punk and Reynolds), one above average hitter (Montero), three below average (Drew, Roberts and Parra), and two quite bad hitters (Young and Whitesell). Since the last time we saw Arizona, Upton and Reynolds have slowed their pace, Montero has come on very strong, and Parra has taken positive steps.

Luke Carlin (2-12) is the backup catcher with Chris Snyder on the shelf.  Alex Romero (.265, 0, 3) is the lone backup OF, while IFs Augie Ojeda (.221/.304/.295) and Chad Tracy (.224/.289/.388) fill out the bench.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

Star-divide

The Arms: C

Since we last faced Arizona, they have moved inside the top 20 in ERA.  Their rotation ERA/FIP/tRA splits are 3.99/4.07/4.43; for their bullpen - 4.99/3.95/4.11.  Their pen has the greatest ERA/FIP split in the majors by a large margin.  We miss Haren, one of their only two starters worth fearing.  We do draw Scherzer, whom we beat July 3, as well as the reliably mediocre to below average Doug Davis and Jon Garland.

After going through a rough patch, blowing three saves in five chances, Chad Qualls has converted four straight saves.  The large bullpen for AJ Hinch otherwise includes Blaine Boyer, Juan Gutierrez, Jon Rauch, Leo Rosales, and Esmelring Valdez.  One of those will have to be sent down to bring up Ryan Roberts today - I'd guess it would be Rosales.  The lefties are Scott Schoeneweis and rookie Clay Zavada.

 

The D:  C-

Last time, I gave Arizona a B- for defense and they promptly committed three errors that night.  Their range is slightly above average (+2.1 UZR/150), though they've committed 80 errors, 2nd most in MLB.  FAngraphs says they are the 11th most valuable defense, but I'm still giving them a C-.

 

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:40 pm MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2009 - Doug Davis 4-9 3.41 1.44 91 55

W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa 6-7 5.21 1.45 99 46

 

Tuesday, July 21, 6:40 pm MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2009 - Max Scherzer 5-6 3.64 1.35 97 39

W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2009 - Aaron Cook 9-3 3.85 1.42 63 38


Wednesday, July 22, 1:10 MDT

W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2009 - Jon Garland 5-9 4.45 1.49 50 41

W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez 7-9 3.82 1.30 111 50

 

My take:  Contrary to last time, I'm not worried about this series.  We miss Haren, so we either have the pedge in the SP matchup or have a pretty good shot.  Their lineup will be shifting to find new roles, and two positions will have new full-time starters since the ASB.  We should take this series, with a solid shot at a sweep if Aaron Cook can figure out how to keep his sinker down in the zone again.

 

33_15_10---fire-flame-texture_web_mediumJon Garland has strung together 6 quality starts in his past seven.  Max Scherzer hasn't allowed more than 3 ER since May.  Miguel Montero is 19-for-50 with 3 HR and 6 RBI in July.  Stephen Drew has managed a .907 July OPS despite hitting only .271 in the month.  Gerardo Parra is 18-for-56 this month for .321 average and .806 OPS.

 

IceClay Zavada has allowed 6 runs in his 5 innings this month with a 3.40 WHIP - he has been scored upon in 4 of his last 5 appearances.  Justin Upton is ice cold with just 10 hits in his last 60 trips, striking out 25 times against just two walks.   Mark Reynolds is just 13 for his last 57 with 21 Ks himselfe

 

Bandaid_mediumTwo LF's are on the DL in Eric Byrnes (hand - 15day) and Conor Jackson ("pneumonia" - 60day).  Chris Snyder (back) is also on the 15day DLy.    Tom Gordon and Brandon Webb (shoulder) are both on teh 60day DL. Webb will not have surgery on his shoulder and will try to return for September.

Poll
Revenge complete?
A sweep should do it. I'm very confident in the Rox right now, especially against a team who sheds a part once a week
54 votes
A 2-1 series win isn't exactly exacting revenge, but it's a intradivisional series win. I'll take it.
34 votes
For some reason these pesky snakes have our number. Revenge will have to wait and come back more powerful than ever after another series loss.
3 votes
Boom goes the dynamite on that idea. An ugly humbling sweep has us hiding from John Kruk.
0 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 50 comments |

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Comments

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Get your brooms out I smell a sweep a coming.

And I predicted a very tough matchup last time so I’m not just sweeping for the hell of it

by purplesocks on Jul 20, 2009 3:28 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Fangraphs saying that AZ deserves to be above .500...

…is exactly why I don’t believe in Sabrmetrics.

Don’t get me wrong, they are fascinating, and I’m sure that there is something to them, but a guy could make himself crazy looking at all those numbers when it’s really pretty easy to tell whether a guy can get the job done or not without having to get out a calculator, in my opinion. Call me old school, I guess.

"Any newspaperman who speaks of the 'music' of rolling presses is either faking or he has had so much to drink that he will next sentimentalize appendicitis."
-- Roger Kahn

by wtnelson on Jul 20, 2009 3:32 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Arizona was regarded as a very talented team before the season

Surely you will admit that talent doesn’t always equate to W-L. It might take a little more of a leap to recognize that a team can be unlucky. They are 14 games under, which means 7 games is all that differentiated them from being at .500, which is not a stretch to think they’ve gotten bad bounces or bad performances at the most critical times. Then again, performing in the clutch is obviously important. I understand your stance of balking at the notion. They’ll undoubtedly live up to the record now that they are selling off and using youngsters/stopgap players. But they should be better than 38-52

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 3:53 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought that they were overrated to start the season

But that’s just me. Outside of Haren and Webb, the rotation was a question mark, I thought, and outside of Byrnes, did they really have anyone that had ever had an appreciably successful offensive year? I guess you could make an argument for Chris Young, but I don’t see much. They were also a bad defensive infield last year.

Any team with Mark Reynolds on the infield will yield a lot of unearned runs (which is a term that I hate for a team. For a pitcher, it’s bad luck, but for a team, an unearned run is a black mark.).

"Any newspaperman who speaks of the 'music' of rolling presses is either faking or he has had so much to drink that he will next sentimentalize appendicitis."
-- Roger Kahn

by wtnelson on Jul 20, 2009 4:05 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Davis has been a solid starter throughout his career,

And Scherzer figured to be young, inconsistent, possibly fragile, but also very good when he was on. Garland was overrated, but 4/5 still made for a solid rotation. I didn’t think that was so much a question mark as their depth, which definitely proved to be true. They’d been lucky with pitcher health for a bit longer than most teams without adequate backups, I figured it was just a matter of time before they got bit.

Drew had a solid season last year, but otherwise I agree with your assessment of their offense as well. I didn’t think Jackson and Snyder would be this bad, though.

by Rox Girl on Jul 20, 2009 4:13 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

A man is never the same after an injury like what Snyder had last year

I don’t think that I can blame his struggles on him.

"Any newspaperman who speaks of the 'music' of rolling presses is either faking or he has had so much to drink that he will next sentimentalize appendicitis."
-- Roger Kahn

by wtnelson on Jul 20, 2009 4:32 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought they were overrated as well

I believe I had them fourth, but not this far down. Their bullpen was a question mark, and their offense was really depending on steps forward from their offense, which they just have not gotten from Drew, Jackson, Young and co. Those projected steps forward weren’t unreasonable, and their record isn’t just due to bad luck. Their young hitters outside of Reynolds and Upton since April have been putrid up and down the board.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 4:55 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

link?

What fangraphs story is this?

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 20, 2009 5:08 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

word

fangraphs story

The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.

by Resolution on Jul 20, 2009 5:14 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I referred to it

in last Tuesday’s Rockpile. It stated the Diamondbacks were the second most unlucky team in the majors

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 5:15 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Uh...

Thanks for the link—if he had said “the fangraphs article about lucky/unlucky” teams, I’d have remembered it.

Isn’t the article listing lucky/unlucky games per 162? The article says D-backs are unlucky to the tune of 8 per 162, or let’s say 4.5 for 90. So their adjusted record would be 43.5 and 48.5.

Burn the statisticians!

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 20, 2009 6:25 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

i missed that caveat im ashamed to admit

Darn. Still second most unlucky

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 6:40 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Clay Zavada

I guess I hadn’t been paying attention; I didn’t know he’s been up (and for a while). Pretty interesting story there.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 20, 2009 3:37 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Fascinating

He came up in late May and went about 20 scoreless innings to start his career, which you know, is right around a Rockies record for a streak of any pitcher, any time, let alone to start a career. He’s scuffled a bit in July, and his worst appearance was actually July 4 at Coors, where he gave up 3 runs.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 3:50 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Set

a franchise record to start a career, too. Actually, it wasn’t quite 20 scoreless innings. He gave up 1 or 2 unearned runs during that time.

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 20, 2009 5:13 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can't fault him for your circus defense :)

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 5:16 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I read that story in the Times last winter

and thought this is a guy I would undoubtedly root for if he wasn’t a D-back; still it is indeed a great story. I love to hear about these guys who somehow slip through the cracks and still make it to The Show.

by moose14 on Jul 20, 2009 5:06 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

?
reliably mediocre to below average Doug Davis

ERA+ of 124? (Same as Chad Billingsley)

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 20, 2009 5:14 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

*this season, anyway

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 20, 2009 5:15 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

*with a BABIP of .306

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 20, 2009 5:16 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

tRA says he's a farce

tRA of 4.95 puts him in the red. Take it or leave it, but that’s my copout

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 5:17 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Based on what tendencies?

I’m prepared to accept that. I still put him in the average range, though DBacksSkins clipped Jon Garland out of that quote, who is more of the “below average” of the twosome.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 5:22 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, I don't know...

Forget I said that. Maybe I just expect him to do well against the Rockies because he drives me crazy that we haven’t really pounded him as much as I feel we should.

by Rox Girl on Jul 20, 2009 5:28 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okay, I was wondering

since his ERA was worse than his FIP 06 and 08, and his FIP is 0.05 higher for his career than ERA. There could be something there, but it’s not a dominant or consistent one if it’s there

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 5:31 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

2-4 w/ a 3.72 ERA

better than his career ERA, (4.27) but certainly not wildly out of range.

Compare that to, say, the Padres, Cubs and Dodgers, current or former division foes, against whom Double D is 10-3, 8-6, and 5-4, with ERAs of 2.82, 3.27 and 3.46, respectively.

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 20, 2009 5:40 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

How could I have missed that you were such a big Double D fan?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 5:43 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dude,

the guy has no thyroid. How can you NOT be a Double D fan?

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 20, 2009 5:44 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dated a girl with no thyroid

tempers the fanhood

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 6:02 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess

the past tense conveys a lot here….

Fine. He’s basically a guy with an 82 MPH fastball and an awesome curveball. That’s all he’s got. Don’t you like guys who can make something out of nothing?

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 20, 2009 6:09 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Like Jamey Carroll and Aaron Miles?

Yes indeed.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 6:16 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Of course,

PETCO Field and Dodger Stadium might have something to do with that. And well, the other team is just the Cubs.

by Rox Girl on Jul 20, 2009 5:47 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's

some pretty extreme park factors, then.

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 20, 2009 5:50 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well,

he’s certainly always been better than his tRA, anyway.

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 20, 2009 5:57 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

That I could believe a little more

Then again, theoretically, league average tRA is higher than league average ERA also..

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 6:01 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Personally,

I disbelieve almost everything proven by tRA.

But that’s mostly because tRA argues that Lincecum is a better pitcher than Haren this year. Sorta like how pythagorean W/L was dead to me in 2007.

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 20, 2009 6:15 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's easy to disregard fancy mystical stats when they slam your team :)

I guess that’s why tRA has a warm place in my heart, as it has listed us as MLB’s #1 staff overall at certain times in recent months

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 6:17 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

True.

By that measure, this year I’m disregarding fancy stats such as “wins” and “standings” and “games behind”. Stupid sabermetricians, what will they come up with next? “Batting average”? “Earned Run Average”? Please. The game should be played the old fashioned way.

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 20, 2009 6:29 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I expect..

The rockies to hit Doug Davis good tonight. Just a feeling..I’ve never seen Davis as having good stuff..but he still gets the job done. With that said, I believe the Rox will hit him hard tonight :P

by GoRockies!! on Jul 20, 2009 5:22 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, I take it back.

ERA+ of 131 after his last start.

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 20, 2009 5:27 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe the Dodgers should swap Billingsley for Davis eh?

especially after Billingsley’s rough patch lately…

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 5:32 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Going on career numbers and age,

I’d make that trade in a second. But Davis is having a really great year in 2009.

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 20, 2009 5:35 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dodgers, obviously.

Oooh, you meant…. ;-)

Playing for whomever we trade him to sometime over the next 2 weeks. After this year, we won’t be able to afford to re-sign him, and what we could get in trade would likely be better than what we could get with a sandwich pick. (I’m going on the assumption that he’ll be a Type B FA)

That’s my somewhat-edjumicated guess, anyway. Playoff teams are always looking for a consistent starting pitcher.

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 20, 2009 6:07 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Davis seems to think he's going to get a contract extension instead of getting traded

Delirious, denial, or correct?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 20, 2009 6:18 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Totally AWESOME,

if true.

Then again, that may be the team preparing for a future without Brandon Webb — whether or not they pick up his option for 2010.

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 20, 2009 6:23 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Capt. Jimmy Wilder: [impersonating Rev. Jesse Jackson]

Why we are on this particular mission, we’ll never know. But I do know, here today, that the Colorado Rockies will emerge victorious once again.

"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill

by Bryce on Jul 20, 2009 5:37 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

i would take 2 out of 3

but i really want the sweep….damn snakes!

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

by TuLoRocks2008 on Jul 20, 2009 6:01 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

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