FanPost

Rockies projected wins based on run differential since June 4th ...


Ok, I'm sure we are all excited about the Rockies 30-10 run since June 4th.  I put together some data assuming that the baseball stats since June 4th are truly predictive of the future.  This is extremely best case for the Rockies, and probably represents some sort of ceiling.  It is still cool to look at :)

First, here is the run differential since the Rockies were 20-32:

Rundiff_060309_medium

 You can see the Rockies are dominating MLB by a wide margin.

So, what is the pythagorean projection assuming the winning percentage predicted by the above run differential remains the same for the rest of the season?  Glad you asked ... (exponent = 1.81)

Pythag_060309_medium

 Lookie lookie, guess who catches the Giants AND the Dodgers?  I had to go to tenths on the wins because it is so tight at around 95 wins.  Looks like the ending of the 2007 season.  And having Manny back will likely help the Dodgers run differential moving forward, but it still pays to dream.  This actually predicts the Dodgers missing the playoffs.

Ok, last thing I wanted to post was TW/TL data for the Rockies starting pitchers.  If anyone can point me to a place online where I can look this up, that would be appreciated, because I am updating this manually right now (any errors in the data belong to me).

 Rock_twtl_medium

Jimenez has started four of our last ten losses.  I don't see that continuing with how well he has been pitching.  Of course the other starters will probably come back to earth, so maybe it will balance out.  If we did trade for Halladay, who would you replace?  Knee jerk reactions are DLR or Hammel, but really?  6-1, 7-2 respectively?  My vote is bullpen help or a right handed slugger, not a starter.  But Halladay would be nice too.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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