Rockies Review: The little team that could
Last week, I talked about some of the stats that helped point to the areas of our resurgence. Walks, starter ERA, power numbers, runs scored -- just a few measures of the many that have helped us reach a quantifiable truth: 54-44, 2nd place in the NL West, two-game lead in the wild card, 7-3 since the break, 4-2 homestand, helping ourselves to 2 of 3 from each the Diamondbacks and Giants. Aside from a pair of demoralizing defeats, the Rockies have played remarkably complete baseball for the past week, and even the defeats didn't hold them down for long (Although they sure were annoying to watch). Juan Rincon, who hasn't exactly established himself as a trustworthy eighth-inning option, gave up a two-run homer to Miguel Montero to allow the Diamondbacks to take the second game of the set, and the Rockies got completely shut down by Matt Cain in the Giants opener, allowing Cain to tie our own Jason Marquis for the MLB victory lead. (Annoying, I know). But both times, they bounced back with well-played, close wins -- 4-3 over the Dbacks and 4-2 over the Giants, spearheaded by a teamwide contribution. Helton's 500th double and go-ahead homer featured in the win over Arizona, and today, Aaron Cook held the Giants to 2 runs over 7 innings on a tidy 77 pitches. The Rockies themselves had been stifled by a succession of Giants relievers after Ryan Sadowski's exit, and were only up by 2. It was time for that general bane of our existence, the bullpen.
Time for pain, right?
Wrong.
What happened? Franklin Morales made the heart of the Giants lineup -- Lewis, Sandoval, and Ishikawa -- look absolutely foolish. Slinging 96-mph heaters and 75-mph curves, he induced a lazy fly ball from Sandoval and two strikeouts from Lewis and Ishikawa, who had absolutely no clue what they were swinging at, only that it had been somewhere else entirely a second earlier. He passed proceedings off to Huston Street, who disposed of the Giants in order in the ninth, getting two easy grounders before striking out former Rockie Juan Uribe to bring 40,000-odd fans at Coors to their feet, and put a nice little ribbon on the series. And all of a sudden, hey, puff the chests and polish the fingernails, we're solidly in the catbird seat of the wild card before heading off on one of those bruising ten-game roadies, which -- in the past -- seem to have been designed for the express purpose of rapidly disabusing us of the notion that we're contenders. It won't be easy this time either. But damned if I can quantify it, but something feels different. Something feels better. Something feels a little less flukey. Maybe this isn't all a hot stretch. Maybe we're... dare I say it....
Good.
Yes Rockies fans. This is a legitimately good team. The bullpen can earn adoration one moment and total horror the next, of course. But newly acquired Rafael Betancourt got a grounder and a strikeout (of the dangerous Sandoval, no less) in his Rockies debut on Saturday, and then today, Franklin Morales put in his application for the position of situational lefty. If he can keep up the level of performance, then he's going to feature as more than just a LOOGY. As has been well chronicled, the bullpen has had trouble all year handing leads to the one rock(ie)-solid piece, which is of course Huston Street. Remember all those scouting reports that had us pegged as the best team in the National League, if only we added some middle relief? We may be on our way there. Now, I'm not going to point to Betancourt and Morales as TEH ANSWER, but middle relief guys don't need to be world-beaters (although it's always helpful if they are). All they need to do is get the game into the hands of the closer, and they've showed some encouraging signs at doing so. Combined with an excellent starting rotation (Cook is now 10-3 with 7 straight wins, Marquis is Marquis, Hammel finally turned in a quality start at Coors Field, JDLR is on an 8-1 run, and U-ball is U-ball) and just enough situational hitting... I dunno about you, but if I were the Mets, I wouldn't be too enthused about welcoming this outfit to Citi Field for four.
Which brings me to my next point. The Mets are totally ravaged by injuries, playing in a cavernous park, having a crisis of management amid rumors that a VP of player development offered to fight disgruntled minor leaguers, etc etc. They built up some modicum of momentum by winning a series on the road against the Astros, but still sit at 46-51, five games south of .500 and 4-6 in their last ten. Their only real power threat this year, Sheffield, just joined the rest of the roster on the DL. We'll be facing the unpredictable Oliver Perez, the mercurial Mike Pelfrey, the needs-no-introduction Johan Santana (unfortunately, our luck at missing Haren and Lincecum didn't extend that far) and some youngster named Jonathan Niese. We'll be throwing Jimenez, Marquis, Hammel, and JDLR at them, in that order. On paper, Hammel vs. Santana is easily the most dismaying, but Hammel may have some Josh Fogg dragonslaying mojo in him, especially once you get him out of Coors. But in the other three, I'll (through my deeply, deeply purple-coloured glasses) give us the advantage.
Of course, it remains to be seen how well our lineup's power translates to the notoriously pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and if the bleacher bums will sufficiently discomfit the outfielders enough that they crash into each other and let the latest Mets scrub get away with a triple. Even if they get through this series, there's the Reds and the Phillies to come. But I'm not going to look any further than this right now, since that's how we're going to have to take this thing. One series at a time. One game at a time. Where we stand now has a pretty nice view, but there's still a mountain to be climbed. I don't have much criticism or introspection to offer at this point, but await the next chapter in what's turned out -- after an utterly disreputable start -- as a pretty damn good season.
Knock on wood.
Go Rockies.
P.S. Far be it from me to scoreboard-watch or anything, but the Dodgers are opening a set against St. Louis tomorrow. Hey, Matt. Wanna give your old pals a hand?
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I voted for the second option.
Sorry, but the Rockies’ history against the Mets makes me believe that things won’t turn out so well in Citi Field. Plus, I’ll be there. Therefore, they’re bound to lose.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
lol me too
they never win when i go also but i don’t know i have a feeling we will at least split the 4 games
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jul 26, 2009 8:56 PM MDT up reply actions
Tuesday and Thursday, then.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
sounds right
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jul 27, 2009 6:29 AM MDT up reply actions
Ubaldo tonight!
Hopefully no repeats of yesterday’s weather
I voted for the 2nd option as well but
really feel like there should be an option 1A. We’re not going to blaze thru this roady but we’re not going to stumble either. I no longer fear road trips. And with what we’ve shown this year thus far, I feel that we should be able to come back winners on any road trip. I feel like 6-4 or maybe 7-3 before returning home.
Does Frankie have enough time before the trade deadline to convince DOD that he can fill the position of premier lefty out of the pen? Will we still look for another LOOGY by Friday? With the acquisition of Betancourt, the emergence of Frankie and the arrival of Jhoulys, I am getting really excited about our pen. And this is without even mentioning Street.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
I like Morales as an inning guy
I don’t see him as a LOOGY at all. For his minor league career, he has a 4.44 FIP v RHB, and a 4.40 v LHB.
His MLB career WHIP split against LHB is nearly 1/2 of his RHB, but it’s only over like 17 IP v LHP
I think he can handle both
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 26, 2009 10:50 PM MDT up reply actions
Agree with the 1A thing
I still think we will come out of this road trip with an above .500 record but we arn’t going to absolutely storm through it, though I wouldn’t doubt it.
This series against the Gaints gave me a LOT of confidence in this team. Ever since we became legit Wildcard contenders I never really believed we were the favorites, but I do now. We are much better than the Giants. The only team that worreis my is Holliday’s new club.
by GoldenNugget on Jul 26, 2009 10:59 PM MDT up reply actions
Holliday's New Club
Is leading their division by .5 but they are 53-47 while the Cubs are 50-45. I don’t think the Cubs will be able to keep pace with the Cards and thus they will fall out of both the WC and NLC races. Colorado still has to win and I know they are capable of doing so.
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
Signs of optimism for the Cubs
After Sunday, they’re up 0.5 games on the Cardinals, and are 15-7 in July.
Their pitching is among the best in the NL and it looks like their offense is finally starting to take some of the shape they envisioned in ST. Soriano has started hitting. Aramis Ramirez has returned. Even Milton Bradley has hit in July.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
The Cubs have had 14 home games this month
At Wrigley where they’ve played great all season, winning series against Milwaukee and Cincinnati but losing or splitting against Atlanta and St. Louis. Their road games have been against the Nationals, who they swept, and the Phillies, who they lost a series to. I wrote last month that they should come out of July looking strong, and they are, but they really haven’t been tested at all. Starting now and going through September 18, their schedule gets very difficult. I’m expecting them to fade, but I think we’ll know for sure if they are legit by the time they leave Coors Field in a couple of weeks.
I was responding to the previous poster
who didn’t think they could stay with the Cardinals. It seems hard to believe. There is obvious room for improvement in their offense and getting Ramirez back instead of playing Fontenot there seems important to me. And perhaps Soriano’s July stats are only home-boosted, but he hasn’t hit this year at home, either. Unless we think the Cardinals are really a .600 team and about to take off, I don’t see why they’ll leave the Cubs in their dust.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
I sort of agree,
I really think the NL Central winner will wind up with three to five wins less than the NL wild card winner.
And now I see both Dempster and Lilly are out
I didn’t know about Lilly. Hmm. I don’t know enough about their roster to know how they’ll cope.
How much does strength of schedule matter? I had been thinking the Rockies are frontrunners due to the overall strength and balance of the team, even if the schedule were not favorable. They’ve continued to play well, even after the end of the 16 of 17 run, they’re not really relying on career years (Marquis, but the rotation still seems as if it would be relatively strong even if he were at his career norms), and they’ve taken a couple good steps toward addressing their weakness (the pen).
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
My opinion
is that schedule strength analysis generally gets abused, either oversimpified by the masses or entirely ignored because it matters more as a series of small steps (meaning SSS issues that keep the saber crowd at bay) rather than one big one.
I think a stretch like the one the Cubs are facing over their next 58 games, or the one the Rockies faced in April, are clear cases of where schedule strength plays a pretty significant factor. If the Cubs are a slightly over .500 team, but are playing mostly .500 or above teams in hostile environments, they should be expected to go .500 or less over those 58 games. If all the other slightly over .500 teams in the NL don’t have as difficult of schedules, and I don’t believe any do, the Cubs will fall behind even if they’re pretty equal on a talent basis.
With their uneven load, I think this is a case of the Cubs really screwing over their chances by not performing up to their talent level in May and June, and they’re going to have to perform well above it, similarly to how the Rockies played in June, in order to compensate.
They never win
when I’m there either. But don’t worry, I totally learned in math that two negatives make a positive. W
The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.
Not necessarily if you add them
woops
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 27, 2009 11:24 AM MDT up reply actions
Citi Field plays as a 99 for pitcher
meaning it’s just a shade better for pitchers than average. Notorious is quite the word to use regarding a field that just opened this season.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
ESPN MAY BE GIVING THE ROCKIES SOME CREDIT FOR SOMETHING
upcoming on sportscenter
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
I like to stay confident, I chose the first option
And I’ll add that my Mets fan relatives are absolutely horrified about facing the Rockies in a four game set.
History may mean something, but recent viewings of the Mets lead me to believe that they are quickly becoming bottom feeder because of the injuries. This will be like the Giants series; their offense will suck, but there will be one pitcher who will silence out bats once. I hope it isn’t Santana because that’s the game I’m going to.
Tonight I was driving home from work
and I remembered that it was Sunday and I got excited because I knew the Rockies Review would be up when I got home. Great work as usual.
President of the Don Draper fan club.
I like this stat, from the DP:"
“Dating to Tuesday night’s eighth inning against Arizona, Rockies relievers have delivered 11 1/3 consecutive no-hit innings.”
Haven't heard anything on the Marquis front.
Finger ready to go for tomorrow?
Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile
by frightened inmate #2 on Jul 27, 2009 7:28 AM MDT reply actions
yep he is good to go
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jul 27, 2009 7:42 AM MDT up reply actions
Just saw the Post
It’s still there but it’s good enough to not affect his delivery.
Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile
by frightened inmate #2 on Jul 27, 2009 7:45 AM MDT up reply actions
I voted for the 1st option because...
I’m an optimist!
Hopefully those Mets continue their Hindenberg-like descent, and we can show that it isn’t ‘Always Sunny in Philadelphia.’
Get it done fellas!
by bostonfanhater on Jul 27, 2009 12:59 PM MDT reply actions

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