The problem with yogurt and prospects

by InToddwetrust on Jul 31, 2009 2:10 AM MDT Comment 38 comments

You may be like me. I've been told that yogurt is good for me by enough people that I can't help but throw a half dozen in my basket while making my rounds at the store. At sixty cents yogurt is both cheap and serviceable and if I ever got around to eating it its healthy effects would be useful, that's if I ever got around to eating it. Normally, what happens is I spend money on yogurt that sits in my fridge till it spoils. This is the cue for me to replace the spoiled yogurt with fresh reinforcements that will never be eaten.

The MLB trade deadline is the peak of prospect worship, the grand poo-bah of over evaluation and hording. This time every year unfamiliar names are brought up, mulled about, and quickly tabbed as "untouchable" based on hypothetical projections. Some will go on to be serviceable players, in rare instances others still will be All-Stars, many will be hung onto past thier percieved use and discarded.

The Rockies with their self imposed salary cap, allergy to free agency, and limited draft pool have understandably relied on prospects to feed the team. Like all teams this has been met with mixed results. Below is what I think is a list of players past and present who could have netted us more useful talent through trade.

Past:

INF Joe Koshansky, SS Evereth Cabrera, P Chin Hui Tsao, OF Choo Freeman, INF Jayson Nix, P Juan Morrillo, P Darren Clarke, and P Jason Hirsh.

Present:

SS Chris Nelson, C Willin Rosario, OF Sean Barker, , P CHAZ ROE, SS HECTOR GOMEZ, C MIKE MCKENRY, P CHRISTIAN FRIEDRICH, P BRANDON HYNICK, P Shane Lindsey, and P Greg Reynolds.

Some were never highly regarded, some are still here but injured, and some could still help through contribution or trade. I just wanted to list players I felt were blocked or had a high enough ceiling but enough flaws to be attractive but not concrete.

The Dodgers just landed RP George Sherrill while the Giants traded for Sanchez. Other teams are putting themselves in a position to win now. I'm not suggesting we trade away core youth for rentals. I am suggesting that the cost concience Rockies use their best currency-prospects-to capitalize on a rare season of contention. Could any three, five, or seven players presently with the organization have landed Halladay or Lee? Dunno, but I strongly feel that the impact of such a move makes us the favorite in the Wild Card hunt.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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We know

That maybe half a dozen Rockies prospects would genuinely excite other teams. The rest are likely to be at best filler. Unfortunately, the ones the future of the franchise is likely to rest on are the ones other teams want.

Of your list, perhaps Gomez, Rosario and Friedrich fit into this category. The rest just don’t and will never be enough to lure a top trade (see the steak and potatoes analogy, it’s brilliant).

Of course, it’s possible that Hynick will be a hall of famer and Friedrich will pitch 12 innings of major league ball and then disappear; but people who by and large know what they’re talking about think otherwise, which is why we can’t just trade Friedrich, shrug and say “it’s okay, we’ve still got Hynick”. All prospects are far from equal.

by biondino on Jul 31, 2009 3:33 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

while this is true

the Rockies are building up a nice collection of pitchers in the minor leagues. Not all of them will be able to make the Rockies staff either as a starter or a reliever. Some are extras that can and should be traded. These extras should be looked at like cash. The Rockies have no cash…so those extra prospects should be used to fill in major league needs or holes in the organization. Now, who, and for whom is an interesting debate. Who would have value outside the organization over another is questionable.

Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!

by Redhawk on Jul 31, 2009 8:04 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

cash that's not as good as money

You pretty much figure one $20 bill is as good as another. Not so with prospects. If you see prospects as the primary way core players are acquired for your major league roster, then you need to hold some extra as a hedge against the ones that don’t make it.

And if the “extras” are your only “cash”, then they’re even more different from the figurative $20 bill.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 31, 2009 12:07 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

biondinod

To say all prospects are not created equal is true and I agree with you on that.

To say “people by and large who know what they are talking about…” makes the assumption that someone out there know what they are talking about-and this is simply not true. When I was looking up prospect reviews for players to include, Friedrich for example, is compared to Mulder, Zito, and Francis. We both know this doesn’t mean Christian will be on par with these guys-he could be better but in reality he’ll probably be worse.

An interesting article by Jerry Cransick at ESPN on 7/29 reviewing failed prospects shows this point.

Examples include Andy Marte’s .213 average in 516 plate appearances. Baseball Prospectus ranked him as the best prospect in all of baseball. Joel Guzman who was sent to the Dodgers in the Julio Lugo trade was ranked again of Chad Billingsley, Edwin Jackson, James Loney, Andy LaRoche, Russell Martin and Jonathan Broxton, among others. He now has weight problems and plays AA for the Nats. There are countless examples.

The article got me thinking that more importantly than hanging onto prospects so long that they peak physically toiling in the minors is the practice of not selling high on a guy when his perceived value has peaked (Lastings Milledge).

Pale SABER gurus can come up with their VORPS and BAARPs and NCAAs and ACLUs. But until they can come up with a KRYSTL-BAL stat they are guessing too.
_________________________________________________________________

Cransick article http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&page=starting9/090729.

Didn’t know how to link it.

InToddwetrust

by InToddwetrust on Jul 31, 2009 9:31 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

OK

First, I’m not sure you want to go with the “SABER” smack in this crowd (me, I’m more of an epee aficionado myself).

Secondly… what point are you making here?

To say "people by and large who know what they are talking about…" makes the assumption that someone out there know what they are talking about-and this is simply not true.

So because there’s not one fail-safe system that can predict the future value of prospects with 100% accuracy – shame on those pale fencing experts you mentioned! – then prospects have no value and they should all be traded before they’re exposed as the frauds that they are at the major league level?

Friedrich for example, is compared to Mulder, Zito, and Francis. We both know this doesn’t mean Christian will be on par with these guys-he could be better but in reality he’ll probably be worse.

But… but I thought no one knew anything? How can you say with such certainty that a guy who has roared through three minor league levels like a buzzsaw in one year’s time will ‘probably be worse’ than anybody? Maybe he’ll go to the Hall of Fame. Maybe he’ll fall into the Springfield Mystery Spot tomorrow and never be seen again. The point is, he’s been tremendous in the minors and is a real-live prospect, the kind of guy that could very well be a big part of the Rockies rotation very soon, and at a cost-controlled price for three years, which is precisely the kind of thing that small to mid-market teams like the Rockies have to do for the sake of their own financial survival.

until they can come up with a KRYSTL-BAL stat they are guessing too.

Well, duh. It’s ALL guessing. But it’s one hell of a lot more educated than you’d like to believe, both from a scouting and statistical standpoint. Prospects aren’t yogurt – they’re more like seeds. Some seeds get trampled on or planted in bad soil and never grow. Some grow and become the best damn garden salad you’ve ever eaten.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on Jul 31, 2009 10:01 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aw, damn it

YOUR CLOSE BLOCKQUOTE TAG

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on Jul 31, 2009 10:02 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

You know what would be awesome...

If we had started this a couple of years ago after we won the NLCS, we could have traded a package of prospects like Nelson and Ubaldo Jimenez for a real ace pitcher that might win the Cy Young this year. We could have started off well in 2008 and traded more prospects for a closer to use as a set-up man, and a slugger to give our offense an extra boost and then we’d be…

right exactly where the Diamondbacks are now. Flailing, without depth, losing revenue and attendance and likely headed for a major rebuild after 2010.

The thing is this isn’t exactly yogurt we’re dealing with. I make my own yogurt and it pretty much comes out the same every time. It’s always yogurt. One cup isn’t going to be any different than another. With prospects, one cup could become yogurt, one could become a black truffle omelet, but you seem to put them all in a pile as roughly equal. Sean Barker, who is out of the organization, btw, is not at all comparable to Christian Friedrich. While you could trade any of these players for MLB level yogurt right now, sometimes it’s not in the team’s best interest to give up a potential black truffle omelet for yogurt.

Will some rot on the shelf? Sure. Will some turn out well like Chris Iannetta and Troy Tulowitzki and Dexter Fowler and Jimenez? Absolutely. You can’t ignore the successes with the wait and see approach while trumpeting only the failures.

Second question, why do you ignore the Graham for Betancourt trade? Why ignore Aneury Rodriguez for Jason Hammel? The Rockies are using some depth to help out this year, approximately as much as the Dodgers have in trade, but not as much as the Giants. Of course the Rockies neither have the minor league depth nor the major league need for help that the Giants do, so that shouldn’t be surprising. It seems to me you’re judging the team only on this week, when in fact the Rockies have been already gotten a leg up on returns via trade by making moves earlier.

by Rox Girl on Jul 31, 2009 9:58 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Part of the reason this is still being brought up

the prospects for players thing is still being brought up over and over simply because the Rockies stated a desire for LHP relief help, and haven’t gotten it.

He has somewhat of a point though. I’m still not saying that we move any of the real guys, but Hynick? Weiser? Roe? I’m not saying get Halladay, but could we get Downs for a pile of potatoes? I’d hardly call him a straight up steak. I know it still sounds like a video game trade, but what is a LHP reliever worth?

At the same time, I can see Toronto not being interested, because they’re gonna get a pile of pitchers back from injury next season.

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 31, 2009 10:23 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Hynick and Roe = the potatoes,

Then no, I don’t think Toronto would do that.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Jul 31, 2009 10:44 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is that the valuation of Hynick and Roe?

are Rogers and Friedrich like really good potatoes then, or are they more on the level of ground beef at this point?

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 31, 2009 10:54 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Roe and Hynick are like opposites

Roe has great stuff but doesn’t command it enough to be a top prospect, but is still young enough (he’s only 22) to improve, while Hynick is as close as you can be to the majors, doesn’t have great stuff, but commands it amazingly, and doesn’t have much time to wait.

I don’t know why we’ve all given up on Roe already, considering he’s doing above average in Double A, and has the stuff that explains why he was a 1st round comp pick when he was drafted. I agree that Hynick should probably be traded because he’s showing that he’s a legit prospect and probably won’t have a job at the majors. Oh, and Weiser = Alan Johnson.

Rogers and Friedrich are as good as it gets, and are untouchable except in a trade for a top flight MLB starter, and even then I’d still like to hold on to Friedrich.

by bballrox4717 on Jul 31, 2009 11:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't seen Roe yet this year

but last year he often sat 86-88 in starts I saw. I hope to see him here in Tulsa soon, but I still think you’re over-selling his stuff.

by David OhNo on Jul 31, 2009 6:52 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's had his share of injury problems, it could be a reason why

He’s slipped on prospect ratings because of it.

by bballrox4717 on Jul 31, 2009 9:03 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good thing we just got some help with LHP relief in Beimel

Dan O’ Dowd must be reading the threads looking for advice.

by Mr. Rockie on Jul 31, 2009 4:53 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

True-and I’m not. I agree that the Rocks need to rely on minor leaguers such as Troy and Dex. However, Rosario, Gomez and the Hynicks of the world are expendable.

Second question, why do you ignore the Graham for Betancourt trade? Why ignore Aneury Rodriguez for Jason Hammel?

I’m not. I think these were great trades. Outside of July Hammel has been a solid pick up and though Betancourt only has I think two appearances, I think he will be an upgrade. I just wonder if we could do more. Could we have made an offer better than what Philly did for Lee? Maybe. Could we get bullpen help? I think so.

It seems to me you’re judging the team only on this week, when in fact the Rockies have been already gotten a leg up on returns via trade by making moves earlier.

We’ve traded for a 4th starter and a late inning reliever. Solid pick-ups for sure. Are we done? Do we still have holes? Do we have the resources to address these holes in terms of prospects? I’m not an ESPN message board kinda guy who thinks we should give the Tulsa Drillers to the Jays for Hallady but I’ve seen enough games where solid starting pitching has been wasted by a suspect bullpen to think we can snag a Towers or Sherril without having the floor give way like in AZ.

InToddwetrust

by InToddwetrust on Jul 31, 2009 11:13 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rosario and Gomez are top-10 prospects in this system, guys who the Rockies value highly. They’re not going to be trade chips used to get middle relief. Hynick’s not in the same castle with those guys in the prospect kingdom.

You keep asking ‘could we do more?’ without really understanding that there’s not a whole lot more we can do. We’re 8 over .500. That’s pretty damn good! Where are we weak? The bullpen, sure, but the additions of Chacin and Betancourt, and Morales, should address that. Second base? Barmes plays good D and has 14 jacks – who is realistically available that we could upgrade with? Same at third base – Stewart’s AVG and OBP are low but he’s slugging near .500 and is a plus defender, and there’s not anyone out there who would be a dramatic upgrade.

The Giants had to make moves because they had massive, ugly, gaping holes in their lineup, and even then they gave up two of their preseason top-10 prospects to get two guys who are marginal upgrades at best. The Rockies don’t have any gaping holes like that, and their biggest issue, the bullpen, has been addressed.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on Jul 31, 2009 11:19 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Umm, Hindisght is 20/20

Every team struggles with who will make it and who will not. Remember when Holliday and Hawpe were brought up. They were not can’t miss prospects, they were average minor players. But they got the majors and began showing “it.” Right now CarGO nad Dex look to have “it” but unlike the H Boys, they have yet to fully show it (Dex’s walks show something we often miss – an eye at the plate, though his K rate is unacceptable given his lack of power).

Yes, Helton and Tulo (despite his occasional struggles) were what they were advertised to be – plus major players. Do we have any of those guys down on the farm right now? No. So, we are not trading sure things. But Chacin, Freidrich, Casey W (if his arm heals), and appear to have the talent to be 25 man squad guys. Gomez? Still projection. That is where teams get into the bgigest trouble, thinking projection is actuality.

All of which is to say, teams that have limited payrolls need to hit on a good average of their players and have them constantly developing since we have 4 years and then we have to move on (budget is budget, its reality unless a billionaire who wants to lose $100 million a year buys the club, and oh by the way, they dont exist).

In the past if you look at minors players we dealt away since O’Dowd came the only you really regret is Chone Figgins. In a given year how many prospects really make it in the majors? But here is the thing. Every trade includes the risk of the fact that the prospect you trade will be the next Holliday, Figgins, Pujols.

All of this to say, unless the player you getting back is either such a big improvement that it significantly upgrades our chance of making the playoffs, then why deal for them? Or, if you can get someone for more than one year at a good price. Bentencourt was a major upgrade, worth the deal. Nick Johnson? How does that help? What might he cost? The Sherrill deal would have made sense if it had not cost any of the three big arms.

is there anyone uot there (aside from Hallady) that makes you go, “We have to get that guy to make it to teh playoffs?” Guys that are upgrades over what we have currently? I dont see anyone, so the risk of trading away a guy who might be quality in teh future?

For me that is the question. Maybe in 2011 we will look back and say, “Why didnt we trade for X or Y and dump this guy or that?” You only know in the future.

by Doctor Christopher on Jul 31, 2009 10:18 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

RE: Franchise

Not sure that this crowd is the place to bring up “SABER smack”-relax.

… what point are you making here? My point is that the Rockies in their History can say they’ve contended for something other than a top ten pick, what, three times? Four? So, as a result I feel the organization should look at moving pieces outside of the young core for help. Again, this does not mean move Tulo, Dex, and others for Halladay. I agree the talent given up at a discounted price for a year and a half of Roy is not worth it. But what about Towers, Sherrill, Bell, and others?

“So because there’s not one fail-safe system that can predict the future value of prospects with 100% accuracy – shame on those pale fencing experts you mentioned! – then prospects have no value and they should all be traded before they’re exposed as the frauds that they are at the major league level?”

Yes, exactly. Or I might have said the Rockies can use prospects to fill the fiscal gap and aquire pieces to win now. Friedrich might be a .500 pitcher or he might win three CY Young’s. But if he is a stand out on a consistently mediocre team does it matter. Winning for us is rare-lets make the most of it.

InToddwetrust

by InToddwetrust on Jul 31, 2009 10:47 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

use the "reply" link

to reply to individual comments. It helps keep comments threaded.

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 31, 2009 10:55 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

(Obscenity) your reply link!

"What's money? A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do." -Bob Dylan

by Bryan Kilpatrick on Jul 31, 2009 11:10 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aw you beat me to it

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on Jul 31, 2009 11:14 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

and my couch

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 31, 2009 11:23 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

i get it!

The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.

by Resolution on Jul 31, 2009 12:00 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

All I’m saying is that this is a group that’s pretty forward-thinking in terms of sabermetrics, so badmouthing them as ‘pale SABER gurus’ and using a bunch of fake acronyms that aren’t funny when professional writers use them is going to come off combative and a little condescending. That’s generally not a way to foster real conversation.

My point is that the Rockies in their History can say they’ve contended for something other than a top ten pick, what, three times? Four? So, as a result I feel the organization should look at moving pieces outside of the young core for help. Again, this does not mean move Tulo, Dex, and others for Halladay. I agree the talent given up at a discounted price for a year and a half of Roy is not worth it. But what about Towers, Sherrill, Bell, and others?

That’s exactly what the Rockies have done! Graham for Betancourt! Rodriguez for Hammel! The Rockies HAVE moved non-core prospects for pieces that have proven to be assets, even upgrades. Just because they haven’t done it in the last three days while all the other teams are grabbing headlines doesn’t mean they haven’t been willing to do it.

The price for Bell was going to be pretty steep. Sherril was probably going to cost us a top-10 prospect. I don’t know who Towers is.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on Jul 31, 2009 11:14 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Come on-the acronyms were a little funny

I wrote above in response to Rox Girl that I like the Hammel move and Betancourt is exactly the type of deal I’m talking about here. I just think we need and can do more.

The price for Bell will be steep.

Sure it will-good things cost. Maybe even a top ten prospect. Ok. That’s the price of doing buisness. I acknowledge the risk/reward. Omar Minaya would probably never have traded Kazmir for Victor Zambrano but he was trying. The Twins are in a similar boat at 52-50 but only 2 games out. They just picked up Orlando Cabrera for a single A shortstop (I believe). Would I trade a single A middle infielder for Cabrera to play second and put Barmes back on the bench where we all agree he should be? In a heart beat.

InToddwetrust

by InToddwetrust on Jul 31, 2009 11:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cabrera is not an upgrade

Barmes is OPSing almost 80 points higher than Cabrera and is a better defender. Also, Cabrera hasn’t played second base since 2000.

(Hope OPS is an acceptable stat for you.)

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on Jul 31, 2009 11:42 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cabrera is garbage

he’s not even worth draft picks

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 31, 2009 11:53 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, true.

I looked up the stats and yeah, wow, despite ripping it up in July Barmes beats out Cabrera in most every category. What about Cabrera coming off the bench instead of Q? I’m not a hard core advocate of Orlando in general its more of an example of it being possible to upgrade without breaking the bank.

(Hope OPS is an acceptable stat for you.)

If you punch 123878 into your stats calculator and divide by five-turn it upside down and it says DONT BE SALTY BECAUSE WE DONT AGREE

InToddwetrust

by InToddwetrust on Jul 31, 2009 12:05 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't being 'salty'

I just wanted to make sure that OPS was an acronym that you weren’t going to make fun of.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on Jul 31, 2009 12:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

let's not be mocking stastical evaluation

because I can go on for hours about Gut Feelings and Hustle and Scrap

Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY

by Andrew Martin on Jul 31, 2009 2:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you see what the Padres asked from Florida for Bell?

Cameron Maybin’s not only a top ten prospect, he’s a top one prospect. And they asked for something else besides him. Sometimes the cost of doing business isn’t worth the reward for doing business. The Rockies don’t need to be giving up Fowler just to get a set-up man.

by Rox Girl on Jul 31, 2009 12:53 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs