Friday Pebble Report: Friedrich continues to dominate, and to get let down by Nuts bullpen

by Rox Girl on Jul 31, 2009 12:47 PM MDT in Pebble Report

Dan Ortmeier had two hits, including a double and a pair of RBI, but the Sky Sox were mostly shut down by Ramon Ortiz and the Grizzlies.

Tulsa: W 8-1

Chaz Roe pitched pretty well. He's had a high walk rate this season but has been more effective at preventing runs. Is it just luck? Since 2007, his ERA has been better than his FIP, so even though he appears to be somewhat lucky this season, I'm doubting that he's been the one and a half runs of ERA (3.30 vs. 4.74 in 2009) lucky the difference between the two would indicate. Daniel Mayora had a pair of hits, and raised his average to .309 for the year. Mayora hits well, a lot of singles some walks, not much power, at home and on the road, against RHP's and LHP's. He is a Texas League version of Freddy Sanchez, only probably less of an asset on defense.

Modesto: L 6-7

Christian Friedrich is number one on Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet this week, and another dominating performance last night at Rancho Cucamonga is part of the reason. What separates Friedrich right now from Brian Matusz is mainly the lack of a quality changeup.

Matt Repec, Jeff Cunningham and Jason Van Kooten homered in the loss. Scott Beerer, after starting slow, has really started heating up at the plate with three more hits last night.

Asheville: W 8-4

The two quick promotions from Tri-City this season, Beerer and Mike Zuanich, have both thrived with their new teams, and give the Rockies a pair of interesting polished bats that are still old for where they're currently assigned but seemingly talented enough not to write off. As the younger of the two, Zuanich intrigues me a bit more right now. He's been murder on left handed pitching and an extremely tough out against RHP's. He already has three HBP's at Asheville in just 40 PA's, meaning right handed pitchers are trying to bust him inside to little success so far. Zuanich is just four months younger than Modesto's Cunningham, both are a couple of years or so younger than Paulk and Kindel at Tulsa.

Tri-City: L 5-9

We don't talk enough about Tim Wheeler or Ben Paulsen. Nice work at Tri-City by both so far. Rob Scahill threw four solid innings yesterday, striking out seven and giving up two runs. He's had two terrible appearances and six great ones so far, the inconsistency is a little frustrating, but that's definitely the ratio you would rather see than the other way around. He's probably had the fourth or fifth best debut of our 2009 draftees, although now that I think of it, how would I rate that? Keep in mind that this isn't a ranking of these guys as prospects, or Nolan Arenado would be listed, just a ranking of how their 2009 professional debuts have impacted their status as prospects:

Chris Balcom-Miller
Rex Brothers
Rob Scahill
Tim Wheeler
Ben Paulsen
Jared Clark
Charlie Ruiz
Rhett Ballard
Dan Perkins
Avery Barnes

Am I forgetting anybody? Maybe Dustin Garneau, and Paul Bargas has pitched alright. Kent Matthes started out well, but fizzled, Joe Sanders hasn't been able to translate to wood that well thus far. Matt Sanders and Joey Wong haven't had much success yet, either. Anyway, I'm curious how other people see our 2009 draftees performing so far.

Casper: W 5-4, L 0-5

Brandon Whitby hit a bases clearing triple as the Ghosts scored four runs in the bottom of the seventh for the walk off win in the first game. They got shut out in the second game, but Edwar Cabrera does look like he might finally be pitching like he did in the Dominican as he came on with 2.2 innings, striking out five and just walking one in relief of Clint Tilford. I might actually have the order of these games reversed. I'm tired and just want to make sure I publish something Pebble Report-esque today.

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Comments

what is friedrich's eta?

is he most likely 2011? my guess is he is going to be like chacin and get the invite to ST next year but then spend most of it down in AA or AAA

by purplesocks on Jul 31, 2009 1:41 PM MDT reply actions

It'll depend on how he handles Tulsa in the final month.

And how he looks in the ST look that he’s sure to get next March. I could honestly see him as a darkhorse rotation candidate for 2010, but more than likely he’s the first or second guy up that season and is entrenched by ’11.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on Jul 31, 2009 2:05 PM MDT up reply actions

I see Friedrich as a guy who will get called up next June (for ML service time reasons)...

to avoid becoming a Super Two player.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Jul 31, 2009 2:46 PM MDT up reply actions

It really depends on how he handles AA this year.

Currently he’s in line to make his AA debut around August 9th, which gives him about 6 starts in Tulsa. Currently the Rockies like to have him dominate for 8 starts, then have him called to the next level. If he performs like he did in Asheville 2008 with the Drillers in August, then it’s an easy decision to say he starts in AA next year, and likely make his MLB debut in Sept 2010. (though things can change based on 2010 performance and the Rockies current needs) If Friedrich dominates Double A like he’s done the other levels this year, then I say it’s likely he’s a Sept callup this year, becoming a rotation candidate to replace Marquis when he leaves for free agency or boot Hammel from his spot. Depending on his and others performance, and Francis isn’t ready by 2010, he could join the rotation, but will likely start the year in Triple A and find his way into the rotation/bullpen depending on injuries and other players’ performances.

All in all, it’s easy to say Friedrich will see the MLB anywhere from Sept 2009 to Sept 2010, (unless h he really struggles or gets injured) and makes his debut when the rosters expand. As for when he joins the rotation, it really shouldn’t be any earlier than April 2010 and should be a rotation regular by 2011. If you really dig through it, there’s a ton of variables to be considered, especially considering Marquis, Francis, Rogers, Chacin, and Hynick’s 2010 rotation/roster candidacy and the health of the bullpen plus himself.

by bballrox4717 on Jul 31, 2009 11:10 PM MDT up reply actions

To clarify:

Are your rankings simply the player’s debut, or the net gain the player’s debut has given their prospect status.

If it’s the later, I’d bump Brothers down two notches simply because he should be excelling in relief given his arsenal and draft spot.

Actually, I might swap Paulsen and Brothers’ spots based on that principle, because Paulsen’s debut has really inflated my opinion of him as a prospect.

We might have a first base prospect that bucks what we have come to expect from one. He’s much younger at this point in his journey than Paulk and Kindel, two players that could be considered similar high contact first base types. He also seems to have better bat speed and pure hitting skills than our other first base prospects showed at this point in their careers.

I’d still like to give Paulsen the edge over Roling as far as first base prospects go, because what little I saw of Paulsen defensively was actually pretty decent, and I think given his frame, he’s more likely to keep his bat speed while adding power up the ladder. He’s also possible the highest rated first base prospect coming out of the draft we’ve taken in a while. I’m not sure where he ultimately ranks yet in terms of the Purp 30, but he’s a fascinating prospect to follow.

by David OhNo on Jul 31, 2009 6:36 PM MDT reply actions