Matt Herges: The reason we look at peripherals
2007, Matt Herges was a hero. Sported a low ERA, pitched in some big games during Rocktober, and most importantly, tossed 3 scoreless innings of relief in the game 163 tiebreaker to send the Rockies to their 2nd ever playoff berth.
Herges, who sported a career-low WHIP in 2007 (and his 2nd lowest season ERA) in 2007, watched his numbers fall apart to an ERA near double his 2007 tally and his whip skyrocketed to levels near his career worst.
So what has really changed?
Well, it's honestly hard to say. Take a look at the past 3 seasons of Matt Herges:
|
Season |
Team |
ERA |
G |
IP |
TBF |
|
2007 |
Rockies |
2.96 |
35 |
48.2 |
191 |
|
2008 |
Rockies |
5.04 |
58 |
64.1 |
294 |
|
2009 |
3.55 |
21 |
25.1 |
107 |
Just based on those numbers, it's looking as if we're dealing with 2 separate pitchers here: a downright solid long reliever in 2007, a mopup guy in 2008, and a decent middle reliever in 2009.
Let's check out his peripherals:
|
Season |
Team |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
K/BB |
HR/9 |
FIP |
|
2007 |
Rockies |
5.55 |
2.77 |
2.00 |
0.74 |
4.00 |
|
2008 |
Rockies |
6.44 |
3.36 |
1.92 |
0.70 |
4.06 |
|
2009 |
Indians |
6.39 |
2.13 |
3.00 |
1.07 |
3.87 |
You can that Herges' K rate has actually improved a bit, but isn't too far off of his career K rate (6.14), and while his BB rate has fluctuated from year to year, it's actually better than his career BB rate (3.37). His HR rate has inched up a bit, but it's still at a decent level, just a bit above his career (0.84). Just looking at his FIP, it's pretty clear that Herges hasn't really changed TOOOOO much over the past couple of seasons.
The point to all this is Herges is pitching well now. He's not stellar, he's not mindblowing, but he's pitching above the level that he was in 2007 when we went to the World Series. I really think that he could be a solid addition to this ballclub. If the fact that he's still as decent as he was back when we was fab isn't enough to sell you, check out ZIPS' projections on him the rest of the season:
|
Season |
Team |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
K/BB |
HR/9 |
AVG |
WHIP |
BABIP |
LOB% |
FIP |
|
2009 |
ZIPS |
6.28 |
2.67 |
2.35 |
0.94 |
.264 |
1.31 |
0.299 |
--- |
3.89 |
Frankly, those kind of numbers are the kind of numbers I want in my pen. We'd probably sign him to a MLC and then from there, wait until one of the relievers starts to fall apart. We need bullpen help, and I think Herges could be some of the help we're looking for.
Just like in 2007, Herges' money pitch has been his changeup, which Fangraphs lists as 2.80 runs above average per 100 changeups (I don't really know what this means, but it's his good pitch) but his fastball is lacking in excitement. He's lost about .5-1mph off of it since 2007, but at the same time, it was barely cracking 90 as it was.
So in essence, he still has some tools that we might need to use, and he could probably fill in where we're hurting. Is he the key acquisition we're looking for? Probably not, but he certainly can't hurt. Especially given the performance we saw tonight out of our other ragtag relievers.
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Lightning in a bottle.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
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isnt herges role what fogg currently is?
or would he be what embree’s role currently is?
Well, outside of VETERAN LEFTY
He’d be handling the 6th/7th more than likely, sharing setup duties with Flores and Corpas when he returns
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 4, 2009 10:20 PM MDT up reply actions
The game tonight was...
so horrible I had a need to vomit. Can we get Herges, Morales, Hynick, somebody, anybody that can pitch better than the guys we have in our bullpen currently? Maybe if we paid Glavine $5 mil or Pedro we could get a better bullpen pitcher.
Despite his ERA and un-clutch-itude
Corpas will help when he’s back
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 4, 2009 10:24 PM MDT up reply actions
Thinking to myself...
(That garbage can in the corner is looking awfully appealing if Corpas comes back to pitch.)
Aww, that's really not fair.
Manny just needs his attitude back. He has really really good stuff. He’s at his best when he realizes this fact.
Very True
I’m just annoyed with the lack of good bullpen options that the Rockies have right now. The Sky Sox have a horrible bullpen and than you look at the Tulsa Driller pitchers and they look like they have some good arms that could make the leap to Majors i.e. Chacin, Rogers, Weiser, etc.
I really hate the fact that Casey Weather had to go down with an injury along with Bulcholz and Corpas :(
I agree
I’m just not sure if Chacin is really ready, he looks like the kind of guy who needs to finish the season in AA and then see how 2010 ST goes.
Rogers could be a contribution, I just wonder how well he’d adapt to the pen
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 4, 2009 10:38 PM MDT up reply actions
One thing I think...
we all can agree on is that the writing is on the wall for the GM, the bullpen and the manger. Either the solution is going from AA, maybe AAA or from a trade.
What do you think?
The answers
1) Morales: He’s a Lefty and a long guy
2) Corpas: Righty Set up guy
3) 2nd lefty: Not in the system
4) 2nd set up guy: Speier? I don’t think that is help AA guy?
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
I have a question-
That is neither snarky nor rhetorical. Why are some of our more talented pitchers still in AA? Is it because they just need work on their pitches, or because pitching in the uber hitter friendly C.Springs would ruin their psyche?
In particular, it seems to me like Chacin is better than a number of our AAA pitchers. Is this me responding to the potential that he has, or could he legitimately be starting in AAA right now?
IDK
To be honest I think is a gradual system…most organizations have their player spend at least a minimum of one year at each farm team they own. That way it gives the player a better chance to adapt to tougher competition and it gives the management a better read on the player.
Man, I’m crying here…I guess Greg Reynolds is a bust…just like Mark Prior. :(
Well
There was an old saying that AA was the guys coming up…and AAA was for the guys going down. And this year seems to be that way around the league, just not with the Rockies.
And yes, no humidor in Col. Springs can’t be good on a young pitcher’s development.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
We
need a left hander that can get leftys out. Flores is garbage. Embree is not good.
by DieHardRox on Jul 4, 2009 10:25 PM MDT reply actions
Speier handled lefties well enough
but his career splits suggest otherwise
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 4, 2009 10:33 PM MDT up reply actions
Splits aren't too bad for a sidearmer
Though I wonder if they changed his arm slot vs. lefties as well. I think he was one of those guys who used a higher arm angle against lefties.
Free Seth Smith!
wow, kind of surprised by these stats...
….walks & Ks per 9 frames have actually improved? Who’da thunk it? FIP looks great & not that far off his ERA suggesting what you see is what you get given solid D (which the Rox have always had).
Still, I personally would not like to see him back in purple – just don’t like the roiders. I know I’m being kind of puritanical about this but it always irked me that Bonds got so much grief when he came to Coors and not a soul heckled Herges in 07 when the Mitchell Report came out.
I guess I take a neutral enough view on this issue to look past it
Herges is a professional, a real pitcher, other general euphemisms, and despite his past mistakes, I think he’d be a contribution to this club.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 4, 2009 10:35 PM MDT up reply actions
probably true...
…I always liked his personality. I don’t know why, but this is a major hang-up for me and I realize I’m in the minority on this one. I just don’t have a job that I could do illegal drugs and still come back to work. In fact, almost all my buddies have jobs that would get them canned immediately if they used controlled subtances and I hate the fact that pro ball players get like 5 strikes – teaches a bad lesson to the kids that look up to these guys.
by TulsaDriller on Jul 4, 2009 10:42 PM MDT up reply actions
and i don't mean to simply disregard your opinion
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 4, 2009 11:10 PM MDT up reply actions
Middle Guys: Daily has been very shaky of late he has a below average fastball Peralta blew up tonight which bothers me. Rincon is ok…barely
Lefties; Flores and Embree both suck
Long guy: Fogg, has pitched well, and mostly has been used for 1 inning or so, I don’t mind using him in the middle innings
Closer: Street….only reliable pitcher out there.
Corpas is on the way back…yea
Speier is on the way back too….boo (he’s not an improvement)
So the Rockies need two lefties, and 2 middle guys
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
middle guys?
Usually they’re not interchangeable…teams usually want at least one other very good guy besides the closer, esp. since teams are reluctant to bring in closers before the 9th or in tie games on the road. That’s been one of the problems pretty much all year, save for that short stretch from Corpas during the win streak. If they had that guy, I think Daley and Peralta are ok as the 3rd and 4th relievers.
Though the one thing that’s always scared me about Peralta is how high his HR rate was before coming to the Rockies. I didn’t figure that would get better pitching roughly half his games in Coors.
Free Seth Smith!
Middle Guys
are to me the pitchers that aren’t either Long Guys…or really good enough to be the end of the ball game Guys
Very unofficial categories ….and are my way of breaking bullpen pitchers up.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
You know that I don't know
What virtually any of the numbers mean. (All Greek, and that.) What I do know is that we need some serious BP help if we’re really going to make a run at the playoffs. I’m guessing that Embree at least hasn’t been DFA’d due to lack of someone to take his place. Here’s hoping that DOD is on the phone to somebody somewhere.
And back to subject at hand…if The Herge could bring us even a middling of help, I’d welcome it.
And how far back are we now?
And lets not forget LaTroy Hawkins. He could help as well.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
check out Hawk's 2008 with Houston and then say that again
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 4, 2009 11:10 PM MDT up reply actions
I know 2008 has been good
but he’s not young…and he’ had more then his share of mediocrity in his career. Some of that with our own Rox!
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
I feel like the bullpen is a spot where age doesn't really matter.
Particularly for middle reliever, set-up guys. Most teams have revolving-door bullpens, so I don’t really care how old a guy is as long as he gets results. And when he stops, find someone else.
Wagner, Hoffman, Rivera, etc
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 4, 2009 11:30 PM MDT up reply actions
Herges numbers are very Jekyl/Hyde
Great in May- 16 ip, 7h, 2er,4w,14ks 1.13 era in 16 games
Not June- 9ip-17h 8er,2w,4ks 7.71 era. batters hit .395 in June and his flyball percent is pushing over 40.
While we all have fond memories this looks like a guy who simply runs out of gass earlier and earlier each season.
I’ll pass

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