Marquis de Blah: Fangraphs Pooh Pooh's Choice of Marquis over Jimenez

What do you think? Erik Manning of Fangraphs prefers Jimenez largely on the strength of FIP, and also somewhat for the excitement factor (young talent, 95MPH fastballs). In contrast, he sees Marquis the way many internet types do--a mediocre vet benefitting from good run support.

almost 3 years ago FooMan 4 comments 0 recs |

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Sabermetrics fascinate me

I don’t believe in them, though. If anyone seriously believes that Marquis isn’t the most deserving Rockies pitcher, they’re just wrong. It’s as simple as that.

The way I see it, if you have to put a bunch of numbers into a calculator to come up with a scientific formula to show how effective a guy is, then you’re just reaching. Marquis’ wins are timely. He’s been the ONLY Rockies pitcher that has been consistently good this year. I can only recall two bad outings. Jimenez had an awful April. I don’t think that there is a more talented pitcher in the NL than Jimenez, but talent alone doesn’t make an All-Star. The game to showcase young talent is the Futures Game. The All-Star Game is about getting the game’s best players to compete for home-field advantage in the WS. Marquis has been one of the best to this point in the season.

The numbers don’t make a whole lot of sense to me, but in my view, scientific formulas mean nothing toward winning. Did the guy get it done when it counted, or didn’t he? That’s the question that needs to be answered. Marquis has gotten it done when and where it counted more than any other NL pitcher thus far this season, and for that, he deserves to be there.

"Horton is win."
--Horvil Tiki

by wtnelson on Jul 6, 2009 4:32 PM MDT reply actions

Here's another question, then.

If you had to choose between Jimenez and Marquis for the 2nd half, same salary, but you could only have one, which do you choose?

That sort of thing is where the Fangraphs guy is coming from.

Free Seth Smith!

by FooMan on Jul 7, 2009 10:16 AM MDT up reply actions

Without question, Jimenez

That’s based on history, though. Marquis has had a history of tough 2nd halves, though he’s never had a 1st half like this one. Jimenez has been the Rockies best pitcher down the stretch in the past 2 seasons. I’m looking at what Sabermetrics junkies call overrated stats, wins and ERA, in making that declaration. (Actually, ERA+ is a better one to look at, in my opinion. Marquis has an ERA+ of 126 this season. Jimenez has an ERA+ of 117.)

But you can’t give a guy an All-Star bid based on what you expect in the 2nd half, though, and that’s where I split. The All-Star Game isn’t about showcasing the game’s best talent. It’s about showcasing the game’s best players. There’s a big difference. To this point, Marquis has been the better pitcher, regardless of how hard Jimenez throws or how many more strikeouts he gets. A groundout on a 92 MPH sinker works the same as a strikeout on a 100 MPH 4-seamer. Sabermetrics are incredibly fascinating, and they obviously have some merit, but I’m of the Jim Tracy school of thought, where you believe in what you see, and I’ve seen Jason Marquis be not only the Rockies’ best pitcher to this point in the season, but also one of the top-5 pitchers in the National League.

"Horton is win."
--Horvil Tiki

by wtnelson on Jul 7, 2009 11:43 AM MDT up reply actions

Fanshots vs Rockpile links?

I thought this article would have elicited more of a response from PR. Maybe it would have done better if it had been linked in a Rockpile rather than a fanshot?

Free Seth Smith!

by FooMan on Jul 7, 2009 10:17 AM MDT reply actions