Tuesday Rockpile: Hawpe literally replaces Holliday's All-Star slot, bullpen news
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 7, 2009 8:40 AM MDT
in Rockpile
230 comments
Rock All-Stars
I really don't know how no one caught this Sunday night, but according to an mlb.com article from Sunday night, the Rockies will represent the NL West with the only divisional starter in the All-Star Game:
Since Beltran is now injured, the Rockies' Brad Hawpe will make his first All-Star start in the outfield by virtue of being the top pick on the players' ballot.
I like the fact that Hawpe has earned respect throughout the league. Hat tip to Wolf for picking up on this news. Justin Upton could replace Raul Ibanez if the Phillie can't return from rehab in time. Drew Litton celebrates the Rockies having an All-Star outfielder for consecutive years by pointing out what we all thought was possible all along.
ESPN's Buster Olney constructs his best NL All-Star team if he needed it to win a competitive game, one against LHP and one against RHP. Rockies fill in two roster spots in each, though Marquis, Jimenez and Street are absent.
We don't need no stinkin bullpen!
Or at least that seems to be All-Star Jason Marquis' thoughts. 8-9 innings and Street can finish it right? Jack Etkin touches on some very interesting stats regarding Marquis' performance of late in his Quick Hits post at insidetherockies. What he doesn't note is that, if I've done math correctly, Marquis is 2.1 scoreless innings away from breaking Franklin Morales' record of consecutive scoreless innings pitched. He's pitching like an all-star.
Dave Krieger notes that Dan O'Dowd's trade for Marquis is one of the best in franchise history. I'm still partial to that Dante Bichette/Kevin Reimer swap myself.
Okay, we probably do...
Big news on the bullpen front: Flores out, Morales called up from Colorado Springs. Frankie will get that rumored spot in the bullpen. Josh Fogg did fine in long relief when he was with the team (wait he's still on the roster?), though he's had trouble getting any appearances lately. Morales may ease into late inning work if he can handle it. I worry about his composure in high leverage situations, but I'm willing to throw his talent out there in place of other options.
Manny Corpas will begin rehab assignment Wednesday. If all goes well, he could be back in a Rockies uni the first game after the All-Star Break next Thursday. Patrick Saunders points to Corpas' recovery as a key - "perhaps the key" - to the second half. This is very true, but it is also sobering. I'm no doctor, but pitching with bone chips sounds painful and unsustainable. A healthy Corpas would be great, but that's leaning on a lame horse. Corpas is optimistic and feels unaffected...for now.
So could we get someone in a trade to shore up the pen? It would involve elevating the payroll, so turn to the Monforts for that answer:
"It depends on who it is. So many teams want our young players, and if that's what it takes, it's not going to happen." - Dick Monfort, Renck
Scratch off Heath Bell from your wish lists. Keeping all of the Hynicks, Rogers', Chacins etc means that if this team wants legitimate bullpen help, it will have to come via Ryan Spilborghs and/or Garrett Atkins. Roy Halladay is available, and he's probably one of those depends-who-it-is characters, though he would take multiple top prospects, and the rotation doesn't need help - it has in fact been clearly the strength of this team.
Other News
Brandon Hynick was the PCL Pitcher of the Week for June 29-July 5. His only appearance that week was his perfect game.
The Rocky Mountain Independent launched yesterday, a new Colorado region newspaper with Inside The Rockies' Steve Foster as a driving force. Paid membership is required. Foster's first Rockies related article there outlines the six prospects he wants to see at the MLB level now: Brandon Hynick, Jhoulys Chacin, Esmil Rogers, Eric Young Jr, Franklin Morales, and Jason Hirsh. Sign up and pay if you'd like to support area media, but Foster's article doesn't offer anything mind-blowing.
Paul Phillips did indeed pass through waivers and accepted his assignment at AAA.
Carlos Gonzalez' glove is made of pure gold, magic and rainbows. That glove is earning him plenty of playing time despite a lackluster showing with the bat, as well as undue credit:
Gonzalez still has not gotten on track offensively, mired in an 0-for-12 slump. But the Rockies are 16-3 when he starts. -Renck
Rockies believe best is yet to come | ColoradoRockies.com: News
General feature fluff.
Another key to the Rockies' second half is Troy Tulowitzki. RMN posted a Counting Rocks on Tulo yesterday, which got buried by other material, so I'm linking it here too.
0 recs |
230 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
So don't go getting all jiggy about who we can pick up at the trade deadline to put us over the top. Especially with Dick Monfort
as much as saying we won’t add payroll. I really wish the M&M boys would sell this team to someone who understands the old axiom “You’ve got to spend money to make money”.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
by pedalpusher on Jul 7, 2009 8:58 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I never thought I would say
that I didn’t want the Rockies to go after Halladay, but our starting pitching has been so damn good of late. Bullpen help, even a less sexy name, still needs to be the priority.
Does anyone have a read on what the organization plans to do with Chacin and Rogers next year? Are they expected to be in the mix for a rotation spot or are they ticketed for AAA?
by moomacher on Jul 7, 2009 9:03 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Knowing the Rockies Minor league Development
they have another year in AA next year, then 2 more after that in AAA….then they will start to decline due to age, and get stuck in AAA until they become minor league Free Agents due to using up their option years. (Note: This is my sarcastic/snarky/pissed at the Rockies development tone)
The Monforts don’t want to trade prospects, but they don’t want to promote them or use them either. Then what good are they? To entertain the populace of Tulsa, OK? I think both Chacin and Rodgers need to be in Col. Springs now. Deduno needs to be moved to the pen and moved to Col. Springs. Hirsh needs to be looked at for a pen spot too as there is no way he makes the majors as a starter (not sure he has the stuff for a bullpen either…but he’s out of options after this year)
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:15 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you promote guys and they eventually make it to Denver, you have to pay them. And it quite obvious that is not part of
the Monforts business model.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
by pedalpusher on Jul 7, 2009 9:19 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
If this team
is to the point where paying a guy league minimum (And it just might be) is an issue then I’m back on the Monforts must go band wagon.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:21 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
When did you get off the "Monfort must go band wagon"?
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
by pedalpusher on Jul 7, 2009 9:23 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I used to drive the horses
now I just get on from time to time. I don’t think the Monforts need to or should be expected to pay money out of their own pockets, by operating this team at a loss (in the Red).
However….there is a point where I wonder how much they are making, and taking out…and not putting back in. Or….a little money on a bullpen arm, or even Halliday….could bring back more money in revenue in attendance. Don’t be so conservative, to hold the future back.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:27 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
So what other business do they have besides the Rockies?
They sold the meat business to Swift or ConAgra or someone. I’m not sure what else they’re into.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
by pedalpusher on Jul 7, 2009 9:33 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't they still have
the trucking business? (not sure)
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:37 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
The trucking business was Jerry McMorris
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
by pedalpusher on Jul 7, 2009 5:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where did the current roster come from?
I can see how they can’t expand payroll after signing 25 free agents
Free Seth Smith!
by FooMan on Jul 7, 2009 9:20 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
I realiize this is sarcasm….but….in making out a roster, if at a certain point you are back logging with talent…then either promote that talent…..or trade it. Don’t let it stagnate. It’s only an asset if it’s used.
A Million $ worth of Coke-Cola shares in a safe isn’t worth anything..until it’s sold (or borrowed against). Until then it’s just paper.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:23 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
by pedalpusher on Jul 7, 2009 9:27 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
who's stagnating?
You say this in every thread. I don’t see a problem with giving pitchers a full year in AA.
Free Seth Smith!
by FooMan on Jul 7, 2009 9:27 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe a players window is small
if you take a player, and have them play one year at Rookie, one in A, then high A, then AA, then AAA. You have just spent 5 years on a player. If he comes out of college and is 21 years old, but the time he’s in the majors he’s 26 years old. He starts to decline at 29 you only have a player for 3 years.
And it takes 2 years to learn to pitch at the major league level for the average pitcher.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:34 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well considering
The Rockies have developed the following players well:
Cook
Jiminez
Francis
Helton
Hawpe
Tulo
Ianetta
Corpas
Barmes
Holliday
ect.
I really don’t think they need to be taking your advice on how to develop players. They seem to know what they are doing in this regard
Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg
by wolf213 on Jul 7, 2009 9:41 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
This.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with the pace of development of future Rockies’ starters Chacin, Rogers, et al. And who are you going to replace? Even our #5, JLDR is pitching at a level equal to what you’d expect out of a #5…the only difference is that instead of being consistently mediocre, he goes from awesome to horrible, but the sum total is the same.
This team doesn’t need a starter, it needs consistent middle-to-setup relief. But as much as we do need it, middle relief is not worth mortgaging the farm for.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
by Mondogarage on Jul 7, 2009 9:48 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who do you consider untouchable?
Assuming what DOD is after is a set up man—a potential 8th inning guy.
I find it an interesting question but don’t really know enough about the system.
Free Seth Smith!
by FooMan on Jul 7, 2009 9:53 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on the quality of the reliever
I’d give up Deduno and a lesser prospect for someone like Heath Bell, but that wouldn’t get the job done.
The only true untouchable, imho, is Chacin, but I think you have to draw a direct correlation between the quality of the prospect, and the established ability of the reliever we get in return, and not overpay. There’s really not much we can do to damage the future than to give up premium prospects for middle relief, no matter how much we need middle relief, because bullpen arms, by their nature, are so variable even within the context of a single season.
Sorry for the runon sentence…
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
by Mondogarage on Jul 7, 2009 10:09 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well with a college level player
We’d probably send them to high A ball and progress them accordingly. Francis was drafted at age 21 and spent about 3 years/250IP in the minors before cracking the roster.
It’s really a person to person development thing, you know? We can’t assume that every pitcher will need a full year at every level. In Chacin’s case, he’s not blowing anybody’s hat off in AA, there’s no reason not to let him finish the year before starting 2010 in either AAA or MLB.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 10:17 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
As bad as it sounds
maybe the FO decides to let Marquis walk and looks at Chacin and Rogers. Or do they sign Marquis if he will do 2/$20 or something but listen to offers for JDLR or Hammel? And that doesn’t even consider the glut of questionable AAA pitchers we have.
by moomacher on Jul 7, 2009 9:24 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
The questionable AAA pitchers
is really my REAL issue. They are chaff, that needs to be pushed aside, and promote the AA guys and get them closer to Denver.
Unless Col Springs and no humidor, would hurt a ptichers development…then we need a a new AAA city.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:29 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can get on board with this on both counts
But still, I see no problem with having our best AA starters get a whole season at AA.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
by Mondogarage on Jul 7, 2009 10:10 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
After losing Atkins, Torrealba, and Embree, there will probably be enough money to at least considering signing Marquis.
We probably wouldn’t be signing many other FAs in that case, except maybe another cheap left handed bullpen.
Ideally, at this point (keeping in mind that a lot can change until next February), I’d sign Marquis, and frade one of our clogged AAAA pitchers and an OF (Spilborghs if he’s still here by then?) for a bullpen arm.
Cook, Jimenez, and Francis are in that rotation for sure. Marquis, in my scenario, returns as well. If DLR pitches half acceptably the rest of the year, he may get #5 again due solely to upside. Hammel moves to long relief, Fogg departs. Morales may end up being a long-term bullpen creation in this scenario, as could Hirsh if he isn’t traded.
by WolfMarauder on Jul 7, 2009 9:30 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd argue on some fronts...
I’d say Marquis doesn’t return next year. Hammel is going to stay in the rotation if he continues to be anywhere near where he’s been lately. That leaves one spot, and we have amazing depth for that. I could see Chacin making the jump for that 5th spot next year.
by roxintober on Jul 7, 2009 9:33 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see 2 spots
as I don’t think JDLR will be back. Too much negative towards him. Not sure if the Rockies will trade him and if so for what…but I see 2 rotations spots.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:36 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
DLR's riding a positive wave right now.
If he keeps it up, he’s back for sure. Knwoing DLR, the idea of him keeping it up is not likely, but even then… he won #5 this season based off half a good season last year. He’ll be considered.
We can agree that we have a lot of SP possibilities once again going into 2010:
- Cook
- Jimenez
- Francis
- Marquis on a re-sign
- De La Rosa
- Hammel
- Morales
- Hirsh
These guys are the ones who have to make the team, be traded, or be designated for assignment/non-tendered/released. before 2010 opens (or be hurt, I guess).
by WolfMarauder on Jul 7, 2009 9:39 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd list the 2010 Rotation like this:
Written in ink:
Cook
Jimenez
Hammel
2 Open Spots with these candidates:
JDLR (probable)
Francis
Chacin
Roe
Hynick
Fogg
No chance:
Hirsh
Reynolds
Deduno
That would leave only one rotation spot if Marquis re-signs which I doubt…but it could happen 20% I’d give it right now.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:43 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't Rogers a better candidate
than Roe? I was under the impression that Roe was more a control guy and didn’t have the good sinker.
by moomacher on Jul 7, 2009 9:45 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you should create a new category called "Unknown" and move Frances to it.
Also maybe put Marquis in there as well.
I just don’t think counting on Frances with the type of surgery he’ll be coming back from is wise.
AB
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
by pedalpusher on Jul 7, 2009 9:46 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure were the AB came from but what I was going to add was
but then I wasn’t sure about Helton’s back surgery either.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
by pedalpusher on Jul 7, 2009 9:47 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's thinking too far ahead.
As it stands now, Francis is slated in the rotation. We don’t know if he’ll be able to do it yet. But that spot is reserved for him.
by WolfMarauder on Jul 7, 2009 9:50 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
what's a reserved spot?
I see it as something one can count on or not. I don’t think you are you saying the Rockies enter 2010 assuming Francis is in the rotation, so they’ll need insurance for him.
Free Seth Smith!
by FooMan on Jul 7, 2009 9:55 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It means that he is "slated" to go there.
Imagine a board where the FO penciled in names for the 1020 rotation, as of today. Francis would be one of those names, until otherwise necessary to move him,
by WolfMarauder on Jul 7, 2009 10:07 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we disagree
on Francis. Yes, he would have a spot if he’s ready, and ok. But if he’s not ready then obviously he won’t be in the rotation.
I’d assume that spot is open and plan on filling that spot if I were the GM. If it gets filled by Francis…then great.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:57 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
We don't disagree on that.
We disagree on how to categorize him. You’re trying to account for every possibility in your categorization, which is why I think you’re looking too far ahead. We can still know he may not be ready, while acknowledging he is going to be in the rotation if he is.
Personal preference, I guess.
by WolfMarauder on Jul 7, 2009 10:09 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's too early to narrow down any projections based solely upon performance, and right now more around convenience.
Cook, Jimenez, and Francis are the only ones I’d treat as guarantees right now (again, assuming at this point Francis is ready to go, the second that changes my projection changes, obviously).
If I am the Rockies FO, I assume Chacin, Roe, and Hynick are in the minors at this point (again, disclaimer being things could change.)
Reynolds and Deduno are obviously in the minors as well. Rogers too. (Unless any of these people are converted to bullpen).
You see, I make my projections based solely upon what has already happened, not what I think will happen. I think it is possible Chacin rides a wave into the 2010 rotation, for example, but I don’t assume it will happen.
I’d put it this way:
Reserved Spots:
- Cook
- Jimenez
- Francis
- Marquis if re-signed
Likely candidates for leftiver spots:
- De La Rosa
- Hammel
- Morales
More than possible:
- Hirsh (solely due to lack of options)
There is a significant chance that three or four of these guys are in our bullpen next year, depending on who is traded. That may include Fogg if re-signed.
by WolfMarauder on Jul 7, 2009 9:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
No one thinks Greg Smith is in the mix?
It didn’t really work out with Smith, Reynolds, and Morales being injured, but I like what O’Dowd did with rotation depth. Those guys are not exciting alternatives, but were a pretty good backup plan.
Free Seth Smith!
by FooMan on Jul 7, 2009 9:57 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Greg Smith
should be in the mix for the last rotation spot. He’s another I forgot to list. I don’t think he’s much of a pitcher, but he could surprise me.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 10:00 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
In the mix? Yes.
But he can be optioned down. The ones I am listing cannot. That is why I am listing them. They are the players something has to be done with.
After an injury plagued first half, Smith has been set back significantly, in Hirsh fashion. His stock will be higher than Hirsh’s if he performs well at thr AAA level for the rest of the year. He is still lower on the depth chart than any of the players who need to have a decision made.
by WolfMarauder on Jul 7, 2009 10:10 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
But that is the wrong way to evaluate talent
Just because a player is out of options shouldn’t give him bonus points. He’s either an asset going forward, or he’s not. If he’s not, he’s either released or traded for a younger less up side guy (like what Tampa did with Hammel)
I think Hirsch will be released this off season. He will be a 40 man roster squeeze. Like you said, he’s out of options. BUT I don’t see him being the pitcher he once was, and not going to make the 25 man next year. And not good enough to get even a A ball player in a trade…thus..he’s chaff taking up a roster spot come the off season.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 10:16 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree. I don't see us getting into the type of bidding war it's going to take to be in the Marquis
sweepstakes if he continues in the second half like he has thus far.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
by pedalpusher on Jul 7, 2009 9:36 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only way
would be if Marquis likes Denver,…finds pitching with the Rockies infield (great D!) and big OF (run those balls down) and Appodacca to be better to stay for a discount.
I can see Marquis getting 3-4 years at 10 mill each after being an All Star and having all these wins.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:39 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marquis has said he's happier here than with any other team.
And I don’t think he’s just being nice. He’s played for three other teams where fanbases where rather hard on him.
by WolfMarauder on Jul 7, 2009 9:40 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still don't think Marquis is re-signed
Unless he collapses in the 2nd half, I think he’ll get more than 2/20 on the market. Even at 2/20, it doesn’t seem the Rockies have that in the budget.
Free Seth Smith!
by FooMan on Jul 7, 2009 9:42 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
Does a pitcher with a reputation as an innings eater really get that much? I know he’s had a great year this year, but $10 mill for a #3 guy seems pretty high.
Here's to hoping Francis has a speedy recovery...
by dds_dave on Jul 7, 2009 9:47 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes sadly
they do. And he’s going to be coming off his best year in his career. He’s making $9 million this year, and that was after his St. Louis years where he was looked at as a #4/5 type pitcher.
Starting pitching is just expensive on the open market
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is widely believed Marquis was overpaid on his last contract.
With the signing market significantly down, and teams unwilling to book free agents after one career year, I think it is too early to guess that Marquis will command that much money.
by WolfMarauder on Jul 7, 2009 9:51 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Teams see value in non-variance
They know Marquis isn’t a top of the rotation guy, but they also know they’re going to get 30 league avg starts from him. If he continues to pitch well this year, that helps them know he still has it. It’s not a career year like Dempster’s last year.
Free Seth Smith!
by FooMan on Jul 7, 2009 10:06 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Marquis kept up the pace he's on right now, it would most certaimnly be a career year.
by WolfMarauder on Jul 7, 2009 10:11 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right, but note what I wrote
“Not a career year like Dempster’s last year.”
So far, after 17 scoreless innings, Marquis’s ERA+ is at 126. Most of the year it’s been 110-120, not far from his 115 in 2004. He is on pace for more innings. But it doesn’t scream fluke.
Dempster had a 150 ERA+ guy last year.
Free Seth Smith!
by FooMan on Jul 7, 2009 10:44 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who do you think will be the bidders for him going that high?
Here's to hoping Francis has a speedy recovery...
by dds_dave on Jul 7, 2009 9:51 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
The usual big money 8 teams
If the Mets would give Oliver Perez 10 Million, and the Phillies are considering Pedro Martinez for $3 for just the rest of this year…then I think just the rich 8 will push him up.
But there will be some pull down on the market after this season. The Rangers are broke for example. So I’m just guessing and thinking that Marquis will get a contract similar to what he has now. (3-4 years 10 million per or so)
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:55 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Francis
is a maybe at best. His injury may be career ending. Or he may come back…but that is a very much a “wait and see” . Count on him not being back….and if he does it’s a nice bonus.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:31 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, it may be.
What I mean is that Francis is currently slated as a guarantee, because we have to assume he’s going to be ready to go. Like I said, a lot may change.
by WolfMarauder on Jul 7, 2009 9:36 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
and the fact that he is getting more air time on FSN
makes me think that the career ending injury description might not be too far off.
by holliday5 on Jul 7, 2009 10:05 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
We also have
Weathers and hopefully Bucky in the mix for bullpen by all star break next year.
by moomacher on Jul 7, 2009 9:33 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those gains will quickly eaten by raises
Hawpe, Francis, Corpas increase by 2M each
Tulo by 2.5M
Jimenez by 0.5M
DLR, Barmes, Spilly, Iannetta are arb-eligible. Iannetta at least will need a raise there.
Cots has Hammel listed as arb-eligible, too. He looks like he’ll be a little short of 3 yrs, is he a super 2?
Free Seth Smith!
by FooMan on Jul 7, 2009 9:40 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
We won't know the super twos until the end of the season and everybody's service time is calculated.
Cot’s list (of everybody under 3.00) is just guesswork of people who COULD be arb eligible. Heck, if Iannetta gets hurt again, he may miss out on it too (though doubtful).
by WolfMarauder on Jul 7, 2009 9:53 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think DLR, Barmes, Spilly and Iannetta are locks
If Iannetta gets hurt, he’s on the ML DL and accrues service time. One of those guys would need to be off the active roster not to make it (and DLR is already arb-eligible).
Free Seth Smith!
by FooMan on Jul 7, 2009 10:13 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hammel's a near lock for super two status.
He had a month plus of non-September roster time in 2006, which makes him about the equivalent of an early May 2007 call-up. The cut-off will normally be in June.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 10:27 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
i forgot to mention
During the down time while you were sleeping, sb nation opened up the site for mobile posting. I’m posting from my phone now. Now I can be in the roll call AND be at the game!
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 7, 2009 9:14 AM MDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
I love this
I was gonna try and be FIRST but meh
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 9:14 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I foresee
a bunch of game thread posts that will be: Where U At? I’m here…where u?
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:17 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
BOOST MOBILE
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 9:17 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
im @ the game hawpe just hit 2 run hr was cool
by WolfMarauder on Jul 7, 2009 9:18 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm looking forward to iphone spelling "errors"
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 9:19 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was Png. Wha happened? Waz it cool?
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 9:19 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
In ur iPhonez
Killin ur natinls
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 9:21 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I'm actually going to the game tonight,.
But due to only having a regular cell phone, posting at PR isn’t a likely occurrence for me tonight.
by WolfMarauder on Jul 7, 2009 9:24 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've actually posted from a game on my phone before...
The magic of Blackberry I suppose. I can’t remember the exact game but I posted my seat location, and I know RoxGirl commented on it. I remember something with an animal happening for some reason.
by roxintober on Jul 7, 2009 9:29 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
And if
anyone’s mobile device doesn’t allow mobile posting, contact support@sbnation.com with the device and browser you are using.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
by Russ Oates on Jul 7, 2009 9:26 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
That Krieger bit
Is nice to read, but it’s kind of hard to judge trades purely based on how they panned out, you know? I mean, that’s all that matters, obv, but when this happened, Marquis was supposed to just be 170+ innings of average ball and salary relief in the form of Viz leaving.
That said, yeah, it was an awesome trade, but when it was made, it was looked at as somewhat of a “meh” trade. I was pleased we made it, one way or another, and it’s just been reaping benefits beyond what we could expect.
I guess what I’m trying to say is that Cubs fans shouldn’t be too pissed off about this. When the trade was made, it was freeing up like 5M for them to do whatever with, and they had the pitching depth.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 9:14 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
i hear ya
People always forget the context at which trades are made when judging them, esp when it leans heavily one way after the trade. Most trades make sense at the time for both sides (obvious exceptions like kazmir/zambrano). But its still a win if we get the better end. Maybe Dan or a scout saw something in Marquis that suggested a breakout. Unlikely, but we don’t know
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 7, 2009 9:34 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't the real message in that article
the job that Apodaca has done with Marquis? I mean I hate the guy but he has been able to do some good things with our pitching this year.
by moomacher on Jul 7, 2009 9:35 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
abs
I wanna write about it. I just might.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 10:24 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
See if Apodaca
straightens out Morales, or some other young pitcher.
His strength is tweeking veteren pitchers to make them more effective.
How’s JDLR’s meltdowns been this year? Does anyone believe that Morales will be calm when he has a couple men on base, and a couple runs have already scored?
Those are areas where, IMO, Apodaca doesn’t bring much to the table.
by rockieprogress on Jul 7, 2009 11:26 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those seem almost more like personal issues
than necessarily pitching issues. I agree with what you are saying, what I’m wondering is if it’s really a pitching coach’s job to smooth out anxiety issues.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's why we have a sports shrink eh?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 7, 2009 11:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It worked for John Smoltz
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
by Mondogarage on Jul 7, 2009 1:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
What would a Halladay trade look like with the Rockies?
I mean, as best as I can tell given Toronto’s strengths (OF) and weaknesses (catching, middle infield) our return package would have to be centered around either Tulo or CDI with added prospects. I’m guessing a tempting deal would be either Tulo/Rosario/top arm (Chacin, Rogers or Friedrich) or CDI/Gomez/top arm and then a throw in or two. A Stewart centered package might work with Rolen needing a replacement soon, but for somebody like Halladay there will need to be MLB ready talent going to Toronto any way you slice it and those are the players that make the most sense. Given that the Rockies really don’t have as competitive a chance without Tulo as they do without CDI, the Iannetta centered deal seems the most likely.
Halladay replaces JDLR in the rotation,
Halladay
Jimenez
Cook
Marquis
Hammel
Is better than the Giants rotation, and should be so next season as well. JDLR likely gives us an upgrade over Embree in the bullpen. Torrealba/Phillips is a downgrade behind the plate. It’s a really tough call, but I think it still may be worth it.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 11:02 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
what was Halladay's injury last month?
Was it an arm injury or an Aaron Cook injury?
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 11:13 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Groin, I think.
Definitely not an arm injury.
by holly96 on Jul 7, 2009 12:12 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a pretty pricey rotation
with Halladay making $15 million next year and Marquis needing to be resigned.
by moomacher on Jul 7, 2009 11:16 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm guessing Marquis leaves if we get Doc, actually
So by better than the Giants in 2010, it’s assuming that whoever’s there in his stead from our leftover internal options (see the conversation above) has some value. Might be expecting too much.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 11:26 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another thing I was going to mention about this,
Is that Halladay’s a pretty safe bet to recoup a lot of his salary cost (which isn’t that much for what he’s accomplished) at the ticket office. Marquis drew 25,000 last night against the Nationals after being selected to the All-Star game. Last season in a mid week series in early August (when the team was out of contention) the Rockies averaged 30,000 for their series against Washington. This shows that Marquis’ cache among Denver area fans is still pretty low, but what do you suspect hometown here, Cy Young winner Roy Halladay could expect to get when he returns?
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 12:29 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are we accounting for the thought that Iannetta might be shuffled to 1B in his expendability?
We have a good pitching staff, and granted, it’d be Great with Halladay, but having a top-5 catcher to build on?
I guess the concern is that we’d be giving up a guy who could be a career Rockie, great with the fans, solid defensively, offensively, and is a Very Special Boy, yet we might only get 1.5 seasons out of Halladay.
Is 1.5 seasons of (arguably) the best pitcher in the AL worth 4 years+ of a top 5 catcher?
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 11:22 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the big question...
The answer is if we get a WS trophy in the next two seasons, then yes it is worth it. If we don’t get to the playoffs either of those years? Not at all worth it.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 11:29 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Halladay could provide for this team
9 WAR, should we acquire him at the deadline, a bit more than 10 if we get him, say, today.
Iannetta, should he keep up at his current pace of production (and we can’t quantify the catcher position, just the bat), would provide around 14 WAR during the rest of his Arby years.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 11:43 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
But it's not as simple as that...
Halladay’s WAR in the NL is going to be higher than it is in the AL, for a start, and because the fact that value is concentrated into a small time frame actually makes him more valuable in a “which player is most likely to get this team a WS win way.” For a marginal team like the Rockies, the difference between being an 86 win team and a 90 win team is a huge deal. What’s more, the difference of Halladay over JDLR/whatever #5 starter is greater than the difference of CDI over Torrealba/Phillips/McKenry.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 12:02 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can a GM see the future
and quarantine a WS?
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 11:46 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
as McKenry is really close, maybe next year close. You say Iannetta is a top 5 catcher. And that he is, but catcher is the worst position offensively in the league, and thus the most easily expendable. He will also be getting top 5 catcher money which makes him easier to trade.
The arguement to keep Tulo and/or Iannetta and Gomez, and McKenry and Rosalio is the issue with the Rockies front office AND fans. You can’t keep them all. Like Steaks in the fridge..you have to either use them, or they will need to be thrown out. there are only 8 positions available, and only one catcher. There is a self life, and with out roids, it’s shorter than it use to be.
Any team is only as strong as the next day’s starting pitcher. Halliday coming from the AL East to the NL west, would actually be assumed to get even stronger! It slides other pitchers down a slot where they belong. It makes the Rockies the best pitching staff in 2009 in all of baseball….yes better than the Giants.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 11:41 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
The AL East is the best division in baseball
So that’s a good point there. Thing is, McKenry would be a solid defensive catcher with a decent eye and some pop, and best case, I’d see him batting a .250/.340/.450 line, so right around .800 OPS. If he’s as good defensively as he sounds, that’s a fine catcher right there.
Would you rather move Iannetta or McKenry? Would the Jays actually accept McKenry in lieu of Iannetta (assuming they’d accept Iannetta)?
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 11:45 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if they would
Iannetta is almost an All-Star already, and McKenry is still seen as a backup C by a lot of scouts.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 7, 2009 11:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather move Iannetta
and keep McKenry. Iannetta appears to me to be topping out offensively, and it’s not that great. He’s also getting to the middle part of his arb years and will be getting very expensive. McKenry looks to me to a solid replacement for Iannetta, and younger, and cheaper.
Iannetta plus one of the Minor league arms (Rogers/Roe/Fredrick) plus Nelson or Gomez. Done
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 11:50 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're ready to say a 26 year old player is topping out offensively?
and one with less than 2 years as a starter to boot…Last year he had the best wOBA of ANY MLB catcher. This year he is eighth in a down year. I’m not sure how that’s “not that great” and I’m not positive McKenry can pull that at all, let alone in 2010-11
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 7, 2009 11:55 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
See below
The only thing I question about trading Iannetta would be Torrealba would become the starting catcher. Not the hitting part…but the throwing part. Torrealba has no arm…at all. Fat Catchers and 1st basemen run on him.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 11:57 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
catcher is the worst position offensively in the league, and thus the most easily expendable.
Funny, I see it the other way. It’s a bad position offensively, so when you get a top player at his position, he’s far better than his catcher peers and is not easily replaced. We can find someone to play OF relatively easily. We’ve had dozens of plus bats in the OF, and none at C until CDI
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 7, 2009 11:48 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
a top hitting catcher
Is still a mediocre hitter. The difference from the top to the bottom isn’t much. Look at the difference from Iannetta to say Paul Phillips. Not much difference..not much of a drop off….and Phillips is a journey-man AAAA guy.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 11:52 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree
Give Phillips 120 starts and his stats go way down. The wOBA ceiling for catchers is lower than other positions (obviously), well, except for Joe Mauer, but the floor is lower also. The spread is just shifted. Actually there are more catchers with a wOBA over .375 than at SS or 2B.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 7, 2009 11:57 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Iannetta over Halliday?
is telling me you are over valuing your home guy.
The Best Pitcher in baseball (and Roy Halladay is that) vs a catcher that has a career .244 batting average, and is currently batting .227. Really you take the catcher?
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 12:03 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
pshaw batting average. San Diego better trade for LaRoche or Kotchman to get that lug A-Gone out of the lineup
Nowhere did I say I’d take Iannetta over Halladay straight up. That’s pretty laughable. I didn’t even say I wouldn’t make the whole trade involving him…I’m just saying I disagree with your evaluation of him and his value among catchers, most specifically that he has peaked at a “not great” level.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 7, 2009 12:11 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah..if batting average..you know…hits per at bats doesn’t measure hitting…then you can come up with what ever conclusion you want to make up.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 12:14 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It measures hitting, just not the best way
You can have LaRoche. I’ll take AGone
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 7, 2009 12:19 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought the best way to measure hits
was to count hits.
silly me
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 12:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you would see LaRoche (75 hits) as the equal hitter to Adrian Gonzalez (75 hits)...
Yes, you are silly.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 12:31 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adrian Gonzalez has the 10th best batting average of NL 1st basemen
Something is amiss when he gets to the all star game.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 7, 2009 12:33 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
wasting all those baseballs on the outfield bleachers and all
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 12:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
'Hits' and 'hitting' ARE NOT EQUAL
For God’s sake, if you don’t get it by now, you never will, so I won’t waste my time trying to explain it to you here.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Jul 7, 2009 12:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can scream all you want to
1) I find it very rude. It’s also an alpha response…the loudest one, and the strongest one is superior.
2) How are you going to measure hitting with out using hits? Unless you are just making stuff up?
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 12:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
because not all hits are equal and you know it
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 12:35 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
That part I can agree with
but a hit is still a hit. A Single superior to not getting a hit. And that is best measured by batting average.
What these are saying is one home run every 2 weeks if far better then getting X amount of Singles, say 15 singles. And that’s not true. I’ll take the singles…that keeps innings alive, gives base runners…moves runners over, etc. the other is just a lot of outs.
In other words: You take a whole team of Adrian Gonzalezs’..and I’ll take a whole team of Ichiro’s…and I’ll win
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 12:42 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
you won't though
Team Adrian has an OBP for each batter of .407, while team Ichiro has an OBP of .393. A marginal difference, sure, but team Adrian makes fewer outs than team Ichiro. Team Adrian has a higher SLG, .558, as compared to team Ichiro, .482. This means that team Adrian will be better at advancing its own runners than team Ichiro will.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 1:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
A team literally full of Adrian Gonzalez', 1-9
scores 7.329 runs per game.
Team Ichiro scores 6.356 runs per game.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 1:06 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
WTF?
how can a team of Adrains score 7.3 runs? when they won’t get more than 9 hits?
You are really counting on those homers being very timely.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 1:10 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
all those walks add up...
To simplify it a little bit:
Adrian walks once every 5 he steps to the plate
Adrian gets a hits once every 5 times he steps to the plate.
Which means for every 27 outs, a nine inning game, a team of Adrian Gonzalez’ will have nine hits and nine walks or eighteen baserunners.
Three of those hits will be HR’s and one more double at his current rate. That’s a recipe for a lot of runs most games.
For Ichiro, he’ll have close to as many baserunners, 17, almost all via single, one walk and about three doubles. Every six games he’ll hit a homerun. Really, which team will score more? The one with 13 singles, 3 2B’s and a walk, or the one with 9 BB’s, 5 singles, 3 HR’s and a double?
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 1:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
But this assumes
that a baserunner only moves up one base per each single. Thus making a walk equal to a hit.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 1:31 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh boy
The hitter has absolutely nothing to do with how far a baserunner advances on a single.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Jul 7, 2009 1:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh... you're talking about baserunning...
I though this discussion was about hitting. Besides, it doesn’t just assume station to station on singles or Gonzalez’ advantage would be greater.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 1:33 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
but My team of Ichiro’s aren’t getting credit for their Stolen Bases, and “for making things happen” which I realize there is no way to quantify, and thus are dismissed.
Also it assumes that the Team of Adrians will get Homers and Walks at the same…which isn’t what is really happening in real life. He’s getting walks cause he’s getting pitched around. He’s had only 2 homers in the last MONTH, so it’s a stretch to say he will get 3 AND all those walks.
And yes…I picked Ichiro for a reason, as what a player does on base, is significant.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 2:06 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah,
but I thought hitting was just about hits? I didn’t know it involved baserunning!
“Ichiro is a more complete player than Adrian Gonzalez” is a completely different argument than “Ichiro is a better hitter than Adrian Gonzalez”.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Jul 7, 2009 2:09 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't counting fielding
or pitching…just hitting and getting on base, and what happens when they get on.
Ichiro can score from 2nd on almost any hit. Adrian can’t score from 2nd with a walk….Again…I picked Ichiro for a reason.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 2:12 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
and just what happens when they get on...
Wait, so you’re telling me though, that there’s more to Ichiro’s offense than just his batting average and hits? HERESY!
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 2:14 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well yeah
that’s part of the point, in fact a big part of the point. If it’s just station to station and waiting for a 3 run home run, the odds go to the guy that gets the home runs.
But baseball isn’t played that way (any more). Getting on starts everything. And getting a hit is a great way to get on…it also is great when players are on bases.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 2:19 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
So
If getting on starts everything, and Adrian Gonzalez has a better on base percentage than Ichiro, and ‘on base percentage’ = ‘getting on’, then Gonzalez is a better offensive player than Ichiro. Thank you, drive though.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Jul 7, 2009 2:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
can you post
with out being a jerk? Or is this just normal for you?
But OP% isn’t the end of the tale. It’s the start.
Ok..Bottom of the 9th runners on 1st and 2nd. tie game. You have two pinch hitters you can choose from….Ichiro or A. Gonzales….Who do you pick? I pick Ichirio..cause I need a hit. Thus to me Ichirio is a better hitter.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 2:47 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Go post this at Lookout Landing...
Our Mariners blog and see how many people there laugh at you. You might be surprised.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 2:51 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm
not the one calling names. But just because Ichiro is a good fit in that very specific situation you just elucidated does not make him a better hitter.
If you needed somebody to get on base to start that rally, you’d pick Gonzalez. If you were down two in that situation, you’d pick Gonzalez.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Jul 7, 2009 2:52 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've got a challenge for you, look for the boxscores tonight that prove your point...
Where one team that hits XBH’s and walks scores less than the team that hits a lot of singles and doesn’t take the free pass. Seven times out of ten it’s going to work the other way.
The difference between the D-backs and Padres last night? Both had 13 hits, the Snakes hit the HR’s.
The difference between the Braves and Cubs? Both had 9 hits, the Cubs hit the HR’s.
The Blue Jays had just 8 hits last night compared to the Yankees 12, but the Jays had walks and HR’s. This is all anecdotal, of course, and three examples doesn’t prove squat, but it’s like this every night and we could keep on going forever. The Nationals, seven hits compared to the Rockies five, all those speedy Nyjer Morgan hits didn’t pay off, though. The Giants, six hits compared to the Marlins nine and a team batting average of .214 but they still scored five thanks to a four run fifth that included two walks and one Pablo Sandoval grand slam. Do you think the Marlins maybe would have liked one guy that could hit a HR last night? I’m looking for a box that shows your preferred style, and I know they exist, but they don’t happen nearly as often as the station to station three run homer games you like to think are dying.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 2:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exhibit A
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Jul 7, 2009 3:02 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Missing the point a little
I’m not saying a hit equals a home run. If both team has equal hits and one has more home runs, the home runs are better of course.
What I’m saying is a hit is better then an out. Or..really what I’m saying is a hit, every X at bats, is superior to a home run very X+ At Bats. Yes I agree homers are good and if I had a guy that was going to get 30 hits in 100 abs, I’d like them all to be Home Runs. But I’d rather have 30 hits and 10 walks over say…I dunno 10 home runs and 30 walks.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 3:03 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
You've got to be more specific than that.
Hits could be anything from singles to HR.
If we’re talking about 30 singles + 10 walks
vs.
10 HR + 30 walks
What we know historically is that hits are about 1.5 times the value of a walk, meaning if we value a walk at one, 30 singles (worth 45 walks) plus 10 walks = 55.
Homeruns historically are worth just under three times as many runs as a single, in this case 10 HR would equal 29 of those walk units. The total value of those 10 HR’s plus 30 walks would equal 59. In your example it’s very close, but the 10 HR’s plus 30 walks is slightly more valuable than 30 singles plus 10 walks. Now if any of those “hits” were legged out for doubles or triples, that could change things.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 3:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
And by "hits" in that second paragraph
I mean singles are 1.5 times more valuable than walks in terms of the runs that wind up scoring.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 3:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
but you can't really quantify "legging it out"
well maybe, but that can all be filtered out as noise more than likely.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 3:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is just a historical average.
A single by somebody like Ichiro is going to be worth more than a single by Todd Helton. We know this and I imagine people have ways to estimate that difference, but the point is that either single will be worth more than a walk, but that run estimator you used already knows this.
Redhawk’s better argument would have been that Ichiro is undervalued because his hits are worth more than other players, but he didn’t go that route.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 3:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
And massive math fail by me...
Each HR is actually worth 4.375 of those walk units, meaning the difference is much larger than I thought.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 3:27 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would love to see this whole thing completely threaded
instead of the column of talk
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 3:44 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK,
But Ichiro might score from second on a single. He might not. Adrian Gonzalez is damn sure scoring from second on a home run.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Jul 7, 2009 2:14 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
the Home run
is a great equalizer…but like I said up above, for Adrian to win this…he has to have the Homer after he gets on.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 2:16 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
So as not to break the screen...
I’ll just reply to myself.
Anyway… what part of ‘more baserunners and more extra base hits means more runs scored’ doesn’t make sense to you?
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Jul 7, 2009 2:19 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
the Walk equals a Single part
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 2:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
A walk does equal a single
sometimes, maybe half the time. But a walk is still significant
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 7, 2009 2:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't seem to realize
despite how many times I’ve tried to jovially explain, but “Guy has OBP therefore Walk = Single” is not what we’re saying
OBP means that the batter just gets on and gives someone else a chance to bat as well, and therefore doesn’t waste an out.
Adrian wastes fewer outs than Ichiro.
If I had a batter who bats .000/.400/.000, I bat him leadoff all day long. He has no ability to drive the runners along the bases, but with a decent offense behind him, he’ll score 100 runs in a season. Take Ichiro with his .350/.393/.483 line, and he’ll probably score a couple more runs (because imaginary guy isn’t a good basestealer apparently) but the point is that both of them are getting on base, and thereby not wasting outs.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 2:52 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe this where I don't get it
in your example to me both make outs 6 out of 10 times. One is getting all walks…one is getting hits. And by getting hits…they are driving in runs (assuming that their are other guys on base). And thus generating more runs. Also a hit/single, can mean a guy advances to second on a throw or an error. which almost never happens with a walk
Thus…to me a single is far, far superior to a walk. I mean I want them both, but if I had to choose one…I want a hit.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 3:07 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everybody would...
None of us are arguing it’s equal to a hit. But you’re going too far in that direction in devaluing the walk to the point that you don’t seem to have a firm grasp of its actual value.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 3:09 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ideally, if I knew that he could sustain it
I’d want all hits too. But singles can be flukes. Outs can, too. If I hit one into the hole at 2B and Dan Uggla’s glove is on the wrong hand and his hat is covering his eyes, that might be ruled a hit. But were it Barmes, I’d wager I just got put out 4-3.
I’m guaranteed 1B on a BB. Every time I put the ball into play, there’s a chance that Nyjer Morgan or Andrew McCutchen makes some spectacular play robbing me of a hit. I don’t care of the infield is full of Ozzie Smith’s, I’m on 1B with a BB.
Can a BB score a runner from 2B? Absolutely not! But if there isn’t a runner to advance, my singles don’t mean squat.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 3:13 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
can your walk
get a throw to the wrong bag? Or wide, or cut off when it shouldn’t have been cut off, or hit that weird dirt clod in the of, and careen off to the corner?
I’d rather have a ball hitting a bat.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 3:17 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many of those plays actually happen though?
where a groundout becomes a 2 base error? That actually speaks badly to the batter, because for all intents and purposes, they made an out.
The walk does NOT make an out and gives the batter behind me the opportunity to hit that clod or whatever.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 3:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
really
a walk is greater then a hit? Not even a walk equals a hit…you are not saying a walk is greater then a hit. Am I reading this correctly?
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 3:22 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It seemed you were describing an error above
That a guy who always puts the ball in play is more valuable because the fielder can’t make the putout.
And a walk >>>>>> reaching on error
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 3:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
What I was trying to say
is a hit can have additional results added to it, where a walk can’t, and thus is superior to a walk
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 3:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah I misunderstood
yeah, hits > walks because of that possibility. But that doesn’t mean a singles hitter with a high AVG > doubles hitter with a low AVG.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 3:29 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
You will never convince me
that a low batting average is superior to a high batting average.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 3:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
in terms of skill, or just outcome?
Because a hit can be a mistake, but a guy with a low average and a high slugging usually indicates that he waits for his pitch and then crushes it, whereas the singles might be all bloops – and while they count, they’re all kind of chicken **** hits, you know?
I don’t think we established baselines well here.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 3:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is better to have
$20 or $10?
Same with a Batting Average…which is better a high one…or a low one.
Again, this seems pretty basic.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 3:44 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is better to have
10 quarters or 20 dimes?
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 3:47 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly,
This is why I keep telling people that Franklin Morales (.667) is twice as valuable a hitter as Todd Helton (.328).
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 3:51 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
your 1939 Roosevelt dime with the imperfection
is no match for my bag of nickels
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 3:53 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, wait... .317?!
Morales is even more valuable than Helton than I thought!!!
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 3:54 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
well I was trying to make it simple
as I’m obviously not being very Clear or Salient. I didn’t realize I had to add in sample size or plate appearances, I thought that was assumed.
But if Morales could hit .667 for as many plate appearances as Helton has then yes.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 4:00 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think she was just kidding
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 4:02 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm getting a little worn out
hard for me to tell
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 4:02 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Considering you want One Stat To Rule Them All
You’re asking for an awful lot of conditions. Every time you argue that batting average is a reliable/accurate stat, you come up with qualifications to it that render your argument worthless (and add strength to that of your foes).
by biondino on Jul 7, 2009 5:09 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you have to qualify how big of a gap you're talking about.
Obviously a .400 BA is almost always going to be better than, say, .200. But if you narrow the gap, to, say, .300 and .250, then you probably need to look at other things.
I don’t know how wide a gap goes before you take BA alone, but it seems pretty clear to me that the narrower the gap, the less of the complete story you’re getting.
by holly96 on Jul 7, 2009 5:11 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
You won’t win.
Ichiro is a 1.59 WAR player while Gonzales is a 2.94 WAR player. A team of Gonzales would win twice as many games as a team with Ichiros
Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg
by wolf213 on Jul 7, 2009 1:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is one
of those completely made up stats. And yes, I’ve been reading the series. It’s still made up.
You can make stats say and prove anything you want it. The old saying, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 1:06 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Every stat that isn't a counting stat is made up.
Batting average? Piece of crap. Slugging percentage? Waste of time.
Count the hitzzz and count the runzzz, baby.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Jul 7, 2009 1:33 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Averages
aren’t crap. Counting stats don’t take in At Bats, games played etc.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 2:07 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Counting stats
Just to clear up any confusion about the terminology I and others might use in this regard…
At-bats and games played ARE counting stats. ‘Counting stats’ are the stats that are a single number that you accumulate. Hits, doubles, steals, walks… so forth.
The other stats – batting average, k/9, averages and such – those are known as ‘rate stats’.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Jul 7, 2009 2:14 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
and then the WAR and FIP and whatever
are Statistical Metrics.
we’re learning things!
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 2:53 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or value stats, as it were...
derived from both counting and rate stats.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Jul 7, 2009 4:54 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
But you're doing just that
Claiming that because Ichiro has a higher batting average than Adrian Gonzalez that he’s a better hitter – you’re using a statistic to make your argument.
Not understanding a metric and simply dismissing it as fake is the reason why so much of the new wave of baseball analysis can’t stand the Joe Morgan’s and Dusty Baker’s of the baseball world.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 1:47 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't use a stat
to make an arguement? Then what do you want me to use?
I understand most of the metrics. But I think they are over done, and in many cases a exercise in math, to make the person doing the math happy.
What I don’t like is that many use this made up language like a 2nd grade girl makes up words, then tries to belittle (or claim superiority over) those that don’t understand the words they just made up.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 2:10 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
and the SABR people
(SABR meaning Society of Advanced Baseball Research) don’t appreciate you taking their hard work which they have based on thousands and thousands of baseball games and real baseball data, and didn’t just dream up in their basement, and simply accusing it of being a self-aggrandizing effort!
I’m not trying to be belittling, and I really think I’ve done an ok job of it this time around, but you’re giving the SABR people as much credit as you’re accusing us of giving you.
Yes, batting average has its benefits. But it’s only one part of the picture. Calling wOBA and WAR and such “made up words” is simply ignorant. I know exactly what they mean, and if I don’t, I make that disclaimer before leaning on them too much.
Yes, you can use a stat to make an argument. But then you can’t turn around and accuse us of using stats to make counter arguments.
Just because you don’t appreciate something doesn’t make it irrelevant to conversation, and doesn’t make it gibberish, either. I’ll admit, I’m a bit condescending about batting average, but that’s because earlier in the conversation, I didn’t realize you were starting the argument, I thought we’d come to an “agree to disagree” prior to this and today we were playfully jabbing at each other. I’m sure PF felt the same way.
My issue is, coming from the stats guy perspective, is that I have all these stats to try and model a player, or characterize them based on their batting numbers. So when I hear that Iannetta isn’t very good because he has a low batting average, it’s frustrating, because he’s very good, in the same ways that Adrian Gonzalez is (albeit Gonzalez is even better at those things). I’m not making up a stat to prove he’s good, I’m saying “these collected numbers say he’s good”.
I, as well as this site, have a more positive outlook, or else CR might be more about how badly X player sucks or why we should jettison Y pitcher into the sun or whatever. But I’m trying to keep things in a positive light, so it looks like I’m making up numbers to say that a guy is good. That’s not the case.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 3:06 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
and I think batting average
is a very good indicator of how frequently a player gets a hit vs making an out. And while all hits are not equal, again, a hit is better then getting an out.
Thus a high batting average, is better then a low batting average.
And you know what this sounds like to me? That I’m arguing that rain makes the grass grow.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 3:21 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
and nobody's denying it
But it’s undervaluing the guys who don’t make outs on the plate appearances that don’t qualify as At Bats.
Again, a single is better than a walk, but neither of them are outs, so a guy who can take a walk is more valuable than a guy who can bat .300 and do nothing else.
If you ask me if I want a guy who bats .300/.300/whatever, and a guy who bats .240/.300/whatever, I’ll take the higher batting average, because ball in play etc.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 3:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rain makes the grass grow
Sure. But two four hour rainstorms make the grass grow faster than three thirty minute rainstorms.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 9, 2009 10:52 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
thats not what it is saying
You are taking it to extremes. Two doubles and a home run are better than four singles. Surely you can see that. And if so, you have to acknowledge average and hits can’t tell the whole story. I can understand not buying into WAR. I really can. But some of these non saber stats are by no means mystical and and make concrete sense
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 7, 2009 1:24 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Oh God
not this argument again….
Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg
by wolf213 on Jul 7, 2009 12:59 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know it
If somebody just flat out doesn’t want to believe something, it’s awfully hard to convince them.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Jul 7, 2009 1:30 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Marquis' last start is on Saturday
Will he be available to pitch in the ASG?
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 11:03 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Tuesday would be the day of a usual bullpen throwing session
And as the ASG is really just a glorified relief appearance, it shouldn’t be too much of an issue.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 11:05 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone else feel bad for Fogg?
I feel sad that he’s not pitching. I mean, not that I want to see him pitch, but he’s here to do a job, and while I’d rather have our starters pitch so well that we don’t NEED him to pitch… it still makes me kind of sad. He’s a nice guy (and my brother saw him at a local Denver coffee shop once!) and I’m sure he’s still having fun, getting paid, etc, he was doing ok in long relief.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 11:12 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Who?
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 11:42 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
and Yes
in fact I think Fogg is being mis-used on this team. I think he would be a very solid reliever for an inning. Don’t have to wait for a starter to blow up and have use Fogg for only multiple innings. In fact…most of Foggs appearances so far this year have been for only one inning…they he’s been pretty solid…so far….when he gets in.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 11:54 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't feel bad
I think it’s a good thing when your long reliever is getting less action than the Maytag repair man.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Jul 7, 2009 12:36 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if I feel bad bad.
He’s still getting paid, still gets to hang with the guys he likes. For all I know he’ll take it as motivation and come in and burn some people down.
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
by Bryce on Jul 7, 2009 12:51 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree with you....
Morales may ease into late inning work if he can handle it. I worry about his composure in high leverage situations, but I’m willing to throw his talent out there in place of other options.
I can’t but help think about his relief apperance in the world series and how he looked like he was gonna have a panic attack. Still, he looks better than the alternative right now.
by jcd823 on Jul 7, 2009 11:18 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
well he was also 22 and in the FRIGGIN WS
but yeah I agree with you on principle.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 11:22 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marquis coming up shortly on ESPNRadio, FYI.
by holly96 on Jul 7, 2009 12:11 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Marquis and projections
Marquis is the type of pitcher you feel most confident about in projecting. He’s been around several years and has been consistent. Not too old, not a headcase. Here’s what RMN said about him before the season:
He is a vanilla pitcher. Marquis is nothing special, I’m afraid. He’s very average. But sometimes average is what you need.
I don’t bring this up to rail against RMN – there was no reason to suspect this level of success. I bring it up merely to reflect on how difficult projections can be even in the more obvious projected players. It’s why they play the game after all…
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 7, 2009 12:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've more or less given up on projections
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 12:35 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
uh oh no projections fron the stats guy
Seriously I used to laugh when projections came out. I’m less critical now when understanding the rationale and digesting them with the necessary spoonful of salt. They’re good off season fodder but I much prefer the games :)
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 7, 2009 1:30 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
They're nice for a ballpark look at things
But they don’t tell you much more than just saying that a guy will follow his career average.
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 1:48 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hello, New York accent!
I don’t think I’d ever heard him talk before. LOL.
by holly96 on Jul 7, 2009 12:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brothers
ITR is reporting he signed along with Arenado and Paulson
http://www.purplerow.com/2009/7/7/940496/tuesday-rockpile-hawpe-literally#comments
by moomacher on Jul 7, 2009 1:13 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
WOOOOOOT!!!
This is exciting, things are finally coming together.
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
by jrockies on Jul 7, 2009 1:31 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is somebody doing an FP post on this, or should I?
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 1:39 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
do it
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 1:40 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
This post will get burried with all that's going on, but....
…I’m glad we kept Phillips in the system. Yay!
by TulsaDriller on Jul 7, 2009 1:51 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Good take Redhawk
Does anyone else know what they are talking about?
by 61maris on Jul 7, 2009 3:13 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
was that supposed to be posted up there?
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 3:21 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno
but I think he is cheering me on…so I’ll take it.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 3:29 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't tell if I'm being insulted here or not
I most certainly do know what I’m talking about! So do you, we simply disagree….like completely!
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 3:37 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I assume
he was talking about my YES vote on trading for Halladay, and why it’s a good thing.
BUT I’m taking it to mean, I’m right in everything I’ve said In this thread, today ever on the Purple Row
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 3:39 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
curses!
I need cheerleaders
IN TODAY’S COUNTING ROCKS WE TALK ABOUT WHY REDHAWK IS WRONG ALL THE TIME
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 3:52 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought that was the typical daily thread
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 4:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree about Halladay, though...
But obviously we’ve got some major differences in how we get there.
by Rox Girl on Jul 7, 2009 3:57 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dont' want to change my avatar
Chris Iannetta status: DOOM
Seth Smith status: FREE SETH SMITH
Matt Murton status: Prisoner Exchanged for CarGon
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Jul 7, 2009 3:58 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wore my Matt Hollliday
jersey to the BBBQ
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Jul 7, 2009 4:03 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you had made it a Slovenian castle you'd never have to worry
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 9, 2009 10:54 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
This Rockpile thread...
may get more comments then the Game Thread at Federal Baseball got last night.
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
by RdRnnr on Jul 7, 2009 5:09 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah, it was really active today
even aside from the Redhawk thread
Free Seth Smith!
by FooMan on Jul 7, 2009 5:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope somewhere that means I get a raise
from $0 to like…$.01
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 9, 2009 10:53 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Purple Row
Related FanShots on Purple Row
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
SBNation.com Recent Stories
Blogroll
News and Stuff:
Official Rockies Site
Rocky Mountain News
Denver Post
Inside the Rockies
Hardball in the Rockies (Thomas Harding's blog)
The Growing Colorado Rockies Blog Avalanche:
Diamond in the Rox
Denver Baseball Observer
Rox Head
Rockies Photo Blog
Inside the Humidor
Purple Rox Squad
Rockpile Rant
View from the Rockpile
I Live for This
Rocky Mountain Way
Rockies Review
Rockiescast
Other Colorado Rockies forums/discussions:
TheScoreBoards.com
Colorado Sports blogs:
Mile High Report (Denver Broncos)
BroncoTalk (Denver Broncos)
Mile High Hockey (Colorado Avalanche)
Denver Stiffs (Denver Nuggets)
The Ralphie Report (CU Buffaloes)
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
