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Around SBN: More Televised Winter Baseball, Please

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Second Base)

After looking through the slim pickings at catcher and the short list at first base in previous sessions, I will examine a position where the Rockies have run out a lot of players (13 different men have started the most games at second in a season for Colorado) in their short history: second base.

Second base, according to Tom Tango's positional adjustment scale, is given a +2.5 runs adjustment due to the fact that it requires a better fielder than, say, first base or right field. As a result, second base (along with catcher and shortstop) is often a lineup slot that provides less offense in exchange for greater defense.

Due to its relatively higher defensive requirement, second base is usually filled out by a player that lacks the arm or range of a shortstop (though many do have excellent range) but doesn't carry a big enough bat for a corner infield or outfield position. Great defensive second basemen possess quick hands and feet because the ability to get rid of the ball quickly in order to make the pivot on a double play is crucial.

Many of the second basemen the Rockies have had over the years were considered at best journeymen and the majority of which relied on their defensive prowess. There are a decent amount of players who played at over replacement level for Colorado--and some of the names at the top will surprise you.

Once again I used Sean Smith's historical WAR database to accumulate this data and a glossary of the factors Smith uses to get his data. Here's my article on how WAR is calculated. My methodology is explained in both the catching and first base articles.

After the jump, I'll reveal the top second-sackers in franchise history...

Star-divide

Second Basemen

Note that for the purposes of this study I have, at my discretion, classified players that have played several games at second for the Rockies at other positions (Jeff Baker at 1st, Clint Barmes at SS, Ian Stewart at 3rd). Those that remain are listed below:

1a. Eric Young

Career WAR: 9.5 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 7.3, 1995-1997 (1st)
Top Season: 3.8, 1996 (3rd)
Average Rank: 1.67

While there may be a tie for first place on the top of this list, there is no tie for most Rockies fans when they think of their favorite second baseman: it's got to be EY. Indeed, Young's higher career and 3-year WAR rankings were enough to put him on top of this list. Here is theoldgrizzlybear's Rockies Retro profile of EY.

Acquired with the 11th pick in the 1992 expansion draft from the Dodgers, Young didn't take long to endear himself to the Rockies faithful, famously homering to leadoff Colorado's first ever home game in 1993. EY a regular fixture at leadoff for the Rockies from 1993-1997, playing both 2nd (413 games) and in the OF (131 games). Young had a career year in 1996, in which he led the league in steals (53), won the Silver Slugger at 2nd base, and went to the All-Star game while putting up a line of .324/.393/.421.

EY provided value for the Rockies even in his departure from Colorado, garnering Pedro Astacio in a midseason trade with the Dodgers. All in all, Young was the best overall second baseman in Rockies history.

1b. Jamey Carroll

Career WAR: 5.1 (T-2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 5.1, 2006-2007 (T-2nd)
Top Season: 4.3, 2006 (1st)
Average Rank: 1.67

Jamey Carroll is not a player that a lot of Rockies fans would associate with the likes of EY. After all, Carroll is exactly the type of glove-man that often populates second base (and the bench) around MLB--good fielder with nice range and a relatively weak arm, slightly below average hitter.

However, his career year in 2006 has at least brought the utilityman into the conversation. In 2006 Carroll enjoyed the perfect storm: hitting that was slightly above league average (.339 wOBA) and fantastic fielding (14.5 FRAA) while getting the most PAs he'd ever been given, racking up 4.3 WAR--the best single season ever by a Rockies second baseman.

Actually, Carroll has been comfortably above replacement level his entire career, and his last three years in MLB have been his best stretch yet. Not bad for a 1996 14th round pick whose contract the Rockies purchased for $300,000 in 2006.

3. Kazuo Matsui

Career WAR: 5.1 (T-2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 5.1, 2006-2007 (T-2nd)
Top Season: 4.1, 2007 (2nd)
Average Rank: 2

Kaz Matsui, like Carroll is a two season wonder for the Rockies at second--the odd thing is that both players were with Colorado for the same two seasons (2006-2007). What may be even odder is that Matsui's career year wasn't nearly the equal of Carroll's and yet he made $3.35 million more than Carroll did in 2008.

It just goes to show you that a) team success, timing, and reputation matters and that b) speed is still prized more highly (and inefficiently) than is OBP. But that's a different article altogether.

Matsui's great (4.1 WAR) 2007, like Carroll's 2006, was driven more by his fielding value (13.5 FRAA) than hitting (.341 wOBA), but his 32 steals were what placed him above Carroll (10) in the minds--that and the excellent timing of his career year as well as the enormous expectations set for him when he arrived in America in 2004 for the NY Mets. Those outsized expectations--and his epic failure to live up to them in New York--were why KazMat was available to the Rockies on the cheap--via trade for Eli Marrero in 2006.

Matsui's resurgence in Colorado, subsequent free agency payday in Houston, and reversion to his old New York ways shows that the Rockies bought low and sold high in a textbook manner on Matsui. It's another feather in the cap for Dan O'Dowd to be sure.

4. Terry Shumpert

Career WAR: 2.4 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 3.3, 1999-2001 (4th)
Top Season: 2.2, 1999 (4th)
Average Rank: 4

Terry Shumpert the fourth best second baseman in franchise history? Really? Yep, and he was actually fairly decent for Colorado. Admittedly, I don't have much of a solid recollection of Shumpert in a Rockies uniform, as he was a career backup superutilityman (he played eight positions for the Rockies, including a game as a DH--all but C and P) from 1998 to 2002 (ages 31-35). However, he did start 113 games at 2nd (playing 184 games there overall--4th among all Rockies) so that's where he's being classified.

Unlike Carroll and Matsui's career years, Shumpert's primary asset in his career-best 2.2 WAR 1999 was his bat. In 304 PA, Shumpert had a line of .347/.413/.584 (that's a .997 OPS) with a .347 wOBA. To be sure, Shumpert took full advantage of the pre-humidor Coors Field (.407/.475/.693--1.168 OPS--home, .268/.325/.438 road), but those home numbers are flat out ridiculous! If Purple Row had existed in 1999, we'd be comparing the awesomeness of Terry Shumpert to that of Chuck Norris.

In any case, Shumpert was very valuable in a bench role for the Rockies from 1999-2001 (and he came at a very reasonable price, making only $2.5 million over 5 seasons), taking full advantage of the Coors effect. The more I examine Shumpert's career the more I am fascinated by it.

5. Todd Walker

Career WAR: 1.9 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 1.9, 2000-2002 (5th)
Top Season: 1.0, 2001 (5th)
Average Rank: 5

With a name that combines the two greatest Rockies of all time (Todd Helton and Larry Walker), you'd think that Todd Walker would be some kind of super-mutant with a laser rocket arm, power, rugged good looks, and dual citizenship. Alas, Todd Walker had none of these things.

However, Walker did provide two useful half seasons at second base for the Rockies in 2000-2001 after coming from the Twins in a trade for Todd Sears (Who? Exactly). Midway through 2001, the Rockies flipped him (and Robin Jennings) to the Reds for outfielder Alex Ochoa (a player who was traded seven times), who was part of a deal that landed Todd Zeile.

In both of his years with the Rockies, Walker provided above-average hitting (particularly OBP) and average fielding.

Best of the Rest

Here are players ranked 6-10 among Rockies second basemen:

Player Career WAR Rank 3 Yr WAR Rank 1 Yr WAR Rank Average
Jeff Frye 0.7 6 0.7 6 0.7 7 6.33
Nelson Liriano 0.5 7 0.5 7 0.6 T-8 7.33
Jose Ortiz 0.4 8 0.4 8 0.6 T-8 8
Mark Bellhorn 0.3 9 0.3 9 0.3 10 9.33
Aaron Miles 0.2 10 0.2 10 0.1 T-12 10.67

Other notes:

  • Luis A. Gonzalez was once an above replacement player (0.8 in 2005).
  • Mike Lansing was bad, generating -0.7 career WAR. Despite this, he started the second most games at second base in franchise history (276), from 1998-2000 (over Terry Shumpert).
  • Despite my fond memories of him (I still have his autograph), Jason Bates was horrible (-2.6 WAR from 1995-1998), placing dead last in all metrics.

Next week, I'm taking a week off from the WAR Lords series (which will return with third base in two weeks) and bringing you revised options and service time charts for the Rockies.

Poll
Which second baseman was a better player for the Rockies?
Jamey Carroll (better OBP, defensive utility)
36 votes
Kazuo Matsui (more speed, power)
87 votes

123 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 11 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Three words...Mike Lan--sing

I always marveled at his ability to belly flop a full 2-3 seconds after the ball had already made it to the outfield. Poor guy could hardly react after his back went out…

"Right now, I'm eating Scrambled Eggs, with a comb, from a shoe!"

by WalkInRight on Jul 9, 2009 2:25 PM MDT reply actions  

I think as far as WAR goes, Smith's WAR overrates him

21 fielding runs above average, in 102 games at second? That seems a bit high.

He was good when healthy, though. Another good pickup and a good decision to let Houston sign him to the fat contract.

Free Seth Smith!

by FooMan on Jul 9, 2009 4:15 PM MDT up reply actions  

If Barmes was on this list...

He would be at or near the top. For all intents and purposes, he is now a second baseman, and a good one.

by brian8065 on Jul 9, 2009 3:58 PM MDT reply actions  

He doesn't yet have a full season at 2nd (127 starts)

That said, with this revolving door of journeymen, it’s amazing that Barmes takes so much flack. He seems to be succeeding in what the org tries to do with second basemen—bring in someone cheaply and aim for average-ish or slightly better performance.

Free Seth Smith!

by FooMan on Jul 9, 2009 4:13 PM MDT up reply actions  

Well, he'd actually be fourth...

and he’s got twice as many starts at shortstop than he does at second.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Jul 9, 2009 4:37 PM MDT up reply actions  

Seeing Carroll as 1b

makes me feel vindicated. I always thought he was undervalued. Of course, he’s never really had an amazing year except for 2006.

On a side note, what can career WAR numbers tell you? I get what single season numbers tell you, but what do the career WAR #s say? Just if a player has been consistently good, bad, or average? or is there something more to that number?

by Justus on Jul 9, 2009 7:10 PM MDT reply actions  

It depends

I think per season, 2 – 2.5 is an avg regular, 5 WAR is an strong regular, a near all-star, so if a player piles up a number of them, you know he was a pretty good regular. 7-8 are MVP-worthy, 10+ is a monstrous year (Walker and Helton have never had one).

Career-wise, here’s the top 300, 1955 seasons to present. You can see around 55-60 you start getting into serious HoF consideration. At the low end of the range the strength of the peak will become more important to most.

The other thing is that WAR isn’t a “standard” stat—there are minor variations between analysts and how they calculate it, what stats they have available to do so. The DB used for these articles relies on retrosheet data, which exists for 1955+. The fielding stats are roughly pbp based (they have scoresheets indicating which fielder fielded each out or hit, but don’t generally have info on whether the grounder was hard hit or not, etc.). It is “wins above replacement” and there are slight variations to where the replacement level is set. Etc.

So the numbers from this DB likely will differ slightly from what is on fangraphs.

Free Seth Smith!

by FooMan on Jul 9, 2009 10:16 PM MDT up reply actions  

Good post:
So the numbers from this DB likely will differ slightly from what is on fangraphs.

And they do a little bit, for sure—you can see that Carroll and Matsui have different WAR values on Fangraphs than with Smith’s database because Smith’s calculation, quite frankly, is probably a little more complicated, if not necessarily more advanced.

Fangraphs’ are easier to read/understand due to the dollar value function, but Smith’s may well be slightly more accurate. However, the differences are largely minor. And yes, 2 WAR per full season is the definition of league-average.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Jul 9, 2009 11:34 PM MDT up reply actions  

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