Projected Tulo Stats
by RockyMtnCat on Aug 11, 2009 7:52 AM MDT
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He's currently at 276/361/530 = 891 OPS
Roughly, I'd say he finishes at 285/380/570 = 950 OPS
Raw numbers
Hr 21, RBI 60, Runs 66
Straight projection on those = 29, 87,95
Given his STRONG uptrend since June 1, I'll say 34, 100+, 110+
gold glove shortstop with amazing range...
oh, he won't be 25 til october!!
we're going to love watching TULO for years and years and years...
did i mention, he has a GREAT attitude??
Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).
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did you just do a straightline projection?
ZiPS is projecting him to finish with a .275/.357/.517 line, with 28 HR, 92R, 84RBI.
He’ll have to crank 13 dingers out, I don’t know if he’ll be able to do that.
It’s hard to do mathematical projections on runs and RBI simply because they’re not in the individual player’s control.
Good stuff though, man. You might consider tweaking the formatting a bit next time, but thanks for the contribution!
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Order
Being in the middle of the order (instead of the spots he filled earlier in the year) will definitely help Tulo’s run/RBI totals, though.
Totals since June 7:
.324/.407/.652/1.059, 16 homers, 44 RBI, 45 runs, 11 steals in 236 AB (57 games)
Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer
which is a good point
If Tracy leaves him in the 4/5 the rest of the way, yeah, he’ll probably have a higher RBI total, but I don’t see enough oomph behind him not named Stewart to drive him in for the higher Run total.
I’ll be pleasantly surprised if he can crack 30 dingers. I just don’t know if it’s completely plausible, I think he’s due to regress – just a bit, I’m not saying .240/.330/.400, 4HR.
But on the flip side, we have a lot of run-inflating home games left to play.
Who knows. I love Tulo’s upside. And as I mentioned in a Counting Rocks earlier this season that he’s a strong 2nd half hitter.
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 11, 2009 9:17 AM MDT up reply actions
But ...
166 of his 432 PAs have been in the 6/7/9 spots (vs. 93 in the 2/3 spots) – and surely the 4/5 spot will be better run scoring spots than the 6/7/9.
True that he will likely regress from the last 57 games, but the straighline projections include his horrendous start to the year, so I think 30 HR is within range. His overall BABIP for the year is .296 – definitely a sustainable number (in fact, below his .311 career number). HR/FB rate might not be sustainable, though.
Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer
I think the HR/FB won't drop off
just because balls DO carry in Coors, Humidor or not
Yeah, by standard logic of earlier in the lineup = more runs, he should score runs, but there’s just not much driving force behind him.
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 11, 2009 10:50 AM MDT up reply actions
HR/FB
HR/FB is above his career rate. It would be great if he sustains, though.
Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer
just down the stretch I can see it staying somewhat high
I’d need to see his home/road HR/FB, but I don’t really know where to get that
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 11, 2009 2:34 PM MDT up reply actions
You haven't been keeping a spreadsheet of that all season?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 11, 2009 2:37 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't have that split, but ...
Baseball Reference PI would allow you to download the data to allow you to calculate that.
It’s a pay portion of the site, but costs as little as $1.35 a day (or $29 a year)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/event_bat.cgi
It might not be a bad idea for SBNation to get an unlimited account. $500 spread across 30(ish) blogs, and a few users per blog, wouldn’t be a bad deal – esp since it would be a deductible expense.
I bought a 1 month membership a while ago and downloaded the data for every at bat (all teams) of the 2008 season. It takes some work to finesse the data, but someone with solid Excel skills could really slice and dice to get some awesome splits. If I was independently wealthy (and didn’t have to work) I’d spend a lot of time delving into the stats :)
Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer
yeah, I like making spreadsheets
:-D
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 11, 2009 3:09 PM MDT up reply actions
RMN
You should be working for the Rockies. You ought to send them your resume, and try to get on as a statistician.
I don't know who I'd send it to, is the problem
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 13, 2009 9:33 AM MDT up reply actions
If you ever get around to that phone call,
ask him.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
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Dinger
Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer
I do have a job now
so spending hours on end perusing data on my own won’t feel so much like a waste of time when I could be looking for a job. Also, I’ll be spending about a third of my nights in Wyoming motels. There’s not much to do there, so I may tackle that….
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 11, 2009 3:29 PM MDT up reply actions
cool
I’d be very interested to see what you come up with. If you could automate the filtering, I think you could polish the raw data into some nice gems.
Hit my blog once when you’re in WY, will you? It’s one of two states (DE the other) that I’ve not had a visitor from. Messes up my Analytics map :)
Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer
i did straight line for rbi/hr/runs
quick and dirty, but that is simple stuff – i wonder if zips had last nights game included in their stuff?
I just eyeballed the my “projections”, taking into account his huge increase in stats since june 1. I actually backed off a little bit from what you get if you project those numbers out for the rest of the year.
in any case, he’s going to have some big numbers..
and he should have a gold glove
and he’s 24…
and he plays like a maniac
and he is THE leader…
nice nice NICE combo!!
oh he's the guy, I won't lie
I’m just being a numbers dork
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 11, 2009 9:43 AM MDT up reply actions
another projection of Tulo home runs
using a tight fitting polynomial function yields an estimate of about 37 homers (x axis is days, not games). Reasonable?
"If you're going to be stupid, you'd better be tough."
very reasonable -
I just eyeballed the current uptrend and backed off a bit to get 34.
with another homer today, i think he’s actually straight line for 32, so taking into account the uptrend probably gives 38 or 39 now.
back it off a bit to 35, 36??
I fully expect to see that 'C' on his jersey before long.
He is an absolute phenom. If he doesn’t win the gold glove this year, they should stop giving out the award. In fact, if the Cardinals happen to slip out of playoff contention and Tulo ends up with 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, 20+ steals, and a .300+ batting average,, you’ll have to give Tulo a serious look at the MVP…
"There are only two important things in life: baseball and breathing. But at least you can survive without breathing for 3 minutes."
www.soundclick.com/hollidayrain
I have trouble not giving it to JJ Hardy
But Rollins will probably just win it again
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 11, 2009 9:44 AM MDT up reply actions
It'll be a tough call.
I never even noticed that JJ Hardy was having a good season in the field…he gets no coverage at all. Must be cuz he’s had a rough year with the bat.
"There are only two important things in life: baseball and breathing. But at least you can survive without breathing for 3 minutes."
www.soundclick.com/hollidayrain
by Hollidayrain on Aug 11, 2009 10:13 AM MDT up reply actions
Tulo is getting more recognition from the media with every passing day
a lot of the announcers from other teams won’t shut up about his glove, his arm, and all that jazz.
It’s going to be another Tulo-Rollins race again, because they are 1st and 2nd in FP (yes, I know it doesn’t tell the whole story), and they are recognized by people by having great gloves. IMO Hardy should win it, but it’s not going to happen.
Tulo won’t even win silver slugger for his position because of Hanley, so while he gets MVP votes, he’s not really a factor.
by bballrox4717 on Aug 11, 2009 11:36 AM MDT up reply actions
Tulo has more homers than HanRam
just sayin’
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 11, 2009 11:39 AM MDT up reply actions
HanRam is a better all around player on offense
though I won’t be surprised if Tulo becomes better than him with the bat. They are getting closer in terms of offensive production.
by bballrox4717 on Aug 11, 2009 11:57 AM MDT up reply actions
Considering Ramirez was the number 1 rated player in my fantasy draft this season
I could live with that.
I remember Keith Law having a debate over which player he'd prefer to start his franchise with after the 2007 season: Tulo or Ramirez
He chose Ramirez, but it was close. At that time, Tulo had finished off a historically good defensive season while Ramirez was one of the worst fielding shortstops in the game. They’ve gotten a lot closer in that respect.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 11, 2009 2:06 PM MDT up reply actions
I was just about to say that, haha.
Looks like he’s out of the gold glove race….
"There are only two important things in life: baseball and breathing. But at least you can survive without breathing for 3 minutes."
www.soundclick.com/hollidayrain
by Hollidayrain on Aug 12, 2009 11:36 AM MDT up reply actions
hahaha go figure
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 12, 2009 12:41 PM MDT up reply actions
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