As for OPS+ and EqA – rate stats – I think the article and the comments addresses those. As for WARP, does Jaffe even use that stat? If a BPro writer isn’t using it, I wonder how much weight we should give it. What other WAR type stats show is the same as the BPro article—there’s a glut of contemporary first basemen with similar or better cases than Helton. That hurts his case.

Do you want people to support Helton for the HoF despite the argument not being there? Or just admit that they have a bias against conventional wisdom (which I would agree with, but it’s a far different thing from making an actual argument that he belongs in the HoF)?

If Helton had similar park adjusted stats but played in Petco, and they argued he should be in the HoF (as opposed to arguing that he’s better than you think, and should be considered a HoF candidate), they would be wrong.

They’re hardly “discarding” his “great stats.” Maybe you and I define “discard” differently. They’re putting it into context . Other than make your Petco/perception argument, which again does not carry all the freight you seem to think it does, you haven’t provided any counter-arguments. There may very well be a counter argument in Todd’s favor—park adjustments can be very individual and complicated. It just seems unlikely, given Helton’s statistical strengths and what we know about how Coors Field aids hitters, so people are even less apt to go around doing a lot of extra work.

I’m not just saying there’s a glut of first basemen, I’m saying there’s a glut of first basemen from Helton’s era that have as good or better HoF cases as him, and an even bigger glut of players who put up seasons like Helton’s peak seasons. Standing out at your position in your era is a major criterion for most HoF voters and observers. His EqA might be at the Hall’s avg for first basemen, but that there are so many firstbasemen from his era who are above or near that level suggests the standard for firstbasemen in this era is higher. Are you advocating that John Olerud and Carlos Delgado go in, too?

And yes, Helton’s career is not done. If he plays out the year without dropping off, and then has two more identical years, he will have 2503 hits and 1392 RBI. It will improve his case, since the primary problem is lack of career length/accomplishments. Would that be enough? From the saber perspective, probably not. I still think he will be behind a lot of the first basemen on Jaffe’s list in career value. Will it be enough to capture actual HoF voters? Hard to say. Will the 2500 hits be enough, when coupled with his batting avg? Or will they look at the 1392 RBI and say, for a first baseman who played his entire career in Coors, that’s not enough?

Maybe the surgery really helped, and he’ll be able to play beyond 2011. But that’s essentially what Jaffe is saying Helton will need to do to make a strong case.

Helton was a great player, a remarkable hitter from a consistency and average standpoint—he simply does not give away at bats. What really hurts him is that he did not become a regular until he was 24, did not have an all-star quality season until age 26, and then lost his power at age 31. I hope he makes it, and he wouldn’t be the worst HoFer if elected. But the case is pretty good that other candidates should be ahead of him in line.