Friday Pebble Report: Tyler Matzek update, and Juan Nicasio continues to dominate in Asheville
by Rox Girl on Aug 14, 2009 9:14 AM MDT
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PrintFirst of all, in case anybody hasn't been reading the comments in Curt in Florida's FanPost to the right, we do seem to have a bit more information thanks to bradderup, who's reported that Tyler Matzek is moving into his apartment in Oregon and was purportedly only offered $2 million by the Rockies.
According to sources at Oregon, he will be attending Oregon in hopes of him becoming number 1 overall in 3 years. It sounds bold, but this is a very confident kid. Matzek’s advisor is the same agent as Oregon head coach George Horton’s. Matzek’s dad recently lost his job but that has not stopped him from asking for his precedent setting money. The Rockies have said they will not offer more than 2 million.
While marginally higher than the 2008 recommended slot, and therefore quite a bit higher than Baseball America's estimated $1,791,000 slot recommendation for 2009, this seems a lowball offer for a high school starter of Matzek's caliber. If these reports are true, and at this point I don't have any reason to suspect that they aren't, it would appear that the Rockies will be losing out on Matzek and will get the #12 pick in next season's draft in addition to their own pick (currently #25).
Colorado Springs: Off
Tulsa: L 6-8
Cole Garner homered, extending his 15 game hitting streak (well, technically not, since he walked in an August 10th pinch hit appearance, the streak is only when he's starting) and is now hitting .326/.392/.609 in August, while Darin Holcomb collected three hits, also homering, and is hitting .390/.444/.634 in the month so far. Both players struggled in May but have been heating up over the last two months. Some strong work by Brandon Durden (6 IP, 2 H, 1 R) went for naught as the Drillers bullpen collapsed. Edgmer Escalona blew his first save of the season in allowing two runs (he's been struggling lately) and Adam Bright took the loss in extra innings.
Modesto: Off
Asheville: W 5-0
Juan Nicasio improved to 7-1 with a complete game shutout of Kannapolis. Nicasio allowed just four hits and a walk and struck out seven. Nicasio has blown up in a good way over his last ten starts, going 6-0 with a 64/13 K/BB rate and a 1.41 ERA and continues the Rockies strong work of developing pitchers from Latin America. Delta Cleary hit a two run home run, Mike Zuanich had three hits, including a double and two RBI. Zuanich is now hitting .407 with the Tourists, and has an incredible .377/.517/.707 combined line for Tri-City and Asheville. It's only 141 plate appearances, but there's substantial reason to think he's turned a major corner and he could rise quickly next season.
Tri-City: W 3-0
Josh Hungerman's solid stint at Tri-City has gotten overlooked a little, but the big left hander's been getting the job done, holding opponents to a .148 batting average against as a starter. He's seeming like an intriguing sleeper at the moment. Kent Matthes homered for the first time since June, his second of the season, and also doubled in the win. First round pick Tim Wheeler tripled for his only hit in five plate appearances. Zuanich is a good cautionary tale to not get too concerned about short season statistics, so don't worry about the struggles of these guys yet.
Casper: L 3-6
Don't blame the loss on Chris Balcom-Miller, he continues to be great with six innings and just one run allowed on four hits, a walk and four K's. Nolan Arenado is starting to look like he might have been a real steal for the second round, as he has adjusted to professional ball with four hits, including two doubles. He's hit .388/.415/.633 in the month of August, which is fantastic for an 18 year old player, even in the Pioneer League.
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This has been asked before
but refresh my memory.
What is the ceiling on the Baconator?
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
Balcom-Miller.
He read the name as Bacon-Miller once.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
and I can't not read it like that
The Balcomator doesn’t have the same ring.
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 14, 2009 9:36 AM MDT up reply actions
oh, okay...
Probably mid-rotation ceiling, more likely bottom of the rotation though. If his off speed stuff develops nicely, he could be an Aaron Cook type of pitcher.
Any word on GB propensity or anything like that?
I know that’ll come with an improved change or learning to throw a sinker, but anything about natural movement, etc?
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 14, 2009 9:44 AM MDT up reply actions
(I might be asking all the wrong questions)
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 14, 2009 9:44 AM MDT up reply actions
Did you not read that part of Franchise26's diary?
Balcom-Miller is a definite worm killer. His sinker is his calling card and it’s a good one. If his off speed pitches develop really nicely, he could become Brandon Webb, but that’s obviously a pipe dream at this point.
I remember reading his Casper report
I just haven’t looked back at it in awhile, forgot that he had a Balcom-Miller review in there.
Honestly, I don’t know how you keep track of everyone’s scouting reports. I mean, I could tell you information about our team depth, but with the new guys coming into the Pioneer League, yeesh.
And Preps/NCAA? Forget about it. I’d have to know a guy personally or just hear a lot about him in the draft.
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 14, 2009 9:55 AM MDT up reply actions
For me, following the Rockies in the past just meant that you also had to follow the minors in order to have hope. The big-league team was so awful that you needed to hang your hat on the prospects.
The difference between now and then is that before, we were hanging our hopes on the Josh Kalinowskis and Ryan Kiblers of the world. Now we have Dexter Fowler and Christian Friedrich.
by LawrenceDavis on Aug 14, 2009 2:07 PM MDT up reply actions
this exactly...
For a long time there wasn’t really much of a reason to blog about the MLB team as much as the minor leagues.
Matzek rumor
We might have no reason to suspect the rumor isn’t true, but do we have any reason to suspect it is, other than bradderup reported the rumor on the board? They could have offered more with the same result of lack of news, pessimism regarding his signing.
I wonder if that was the initial offer that needs to be sent within X (10?) days of the draft. Maybe the Matzek camp is playing the Boras game and not submitting a counteroffer in the hopes the team will bid against itself. I dunno.
If that turned out to be the Rockies “final” offer, as in the max they were willing to offer, then that’s ludicrous. I’d wonder why they bothered to draft him.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
It would be ludicous
Especially when we draft a “signable” player next year because the pick is not protected and pay him 2 million.
Positioning...
This is all positioning before the deadline. Don’t believe a word of it.
Matzek is moving to Oregon to try and extract a 4-5 million dollar payday. The Rockies are trying to make Matzek sweat it out to the last minute.
The truth will come out about what was offered next Tuesday…..until then, its all negotiations. I’m not saying he will or won’t sign. I’m simply saying that any report 3 days before the deadline is most likely meaningless.
I wouldn't call it meaningless, but it's certainly not the final word...
I do think the update is interesting because it shows where the Matzek’s are in their posturing right now.
Matzek Signing
Is it possible the family has the same insurance as another Orange County player who declined to sign and is going on to college, knowing full well a career – disrupting/ending injury will still receive adequate compensation. Could it be the young man really wants to go to college, or conversely, wants to be a pro but wants no part of the Rockies? Going to Casper was not something that made Kyle Hancock particularly comfortable coming out of high school, and the hard ball way of handling both him and Scott Beerer, both pitchers, has been well published. These young men lost years of their lives and perhaps potential careers. Maybe Matzek will sign, but maybe this isn’t all posturing, maybe he is well insured and wants to hold out for an other organization.
by pitcherwatcher on Aug 14, 2009 10:46 AM MDT reply actions
If I were an insurer
The amount I would insure a high school pitcher for, even a highly promising one, is many, many times less than a MLB starting pitcher would earn. The insurer, you can bet your bottom dollar, would do a lot of research on the odds of a young pitcher making the majors and would price both the premium and the payout accordingly.
I might be wrong, and it might be feasible to insure his arm for millions even now – and if so, it’d be great if someone could explain how it works – but an insurance payout is going to be a bitter and pyrrhic victory compared to a major league career.
I think it's only for career-ending injury
If you just sort of don’t turn out the way you hoped, or get injured and can still play but lose a couple feet off your fastball, I think you’re out of luck.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Why wouldn't he want to go to Casper
There is plenty to do there…
Cow tipping
Shooting bottlerockets at cows.
Shooting bottlerockets at tipped cows
Underage drinking.
Underage drinking while shooing bottle rockets at tipped cows.
The list goes on and on.
On a serious note, lets not forget why he is going to college. It’s not because he wants to learn, or get a degree, it’s because he wants more cash in three years. If you waive a good chunk of change at this guys face, he will take it.
you're forgetting meth.
and oil-anything.
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 14, 2009 10:57 AM MDT up reply actions
or just spinning pipe
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 14, 2009 11:03 AM MDT up reply actions
This statue is outside of Casper on I-25 as you head north
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 14, 2009 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions
It actually reminds me a lot of the statue at the end of Zoolander
commemorating the fluky gasoline fight explosion, so maybe it’s just homoerotic enough.
guy second to right on statue thinks it's juuuust right
"If you're going to be stupid, you'd better be tough."
I know it's probably something to do with the oil industry
But it looks like a bunch of Chippendale dancers hanging on to a pole.
He probably has that insurance, available through the NCAA,
But as biondino mentions, it’s not going to be close to the $2 million the Rockies offered. The other part of your question we’ve talked about in the past. If he wants to really go to college, I’ve said before that’s a great and admirable personal decision (perhaps foolish considering that he’s not likely to receive as much money throughout his career that way) but it’s his decision to make and he could be happy with it if college is his goal. If his major goal is professional baseball, the decision to sign with the Rockies would be the better choice, even if he’s not completely satisfied with the organization. The Hancock and Beerer issues are not unique to Colorado, all teams sign their players to six year contracts as minor leaguers and they’d lose future leverage with other players if they let them out of those contracts easily. If Matzek wanted to play professionally but not with the Rockies, a Junior College would make the most obvious sense as it would allow him to enter the 2010 draft.
At this point, the holdout is either about really wanting to go to college like you say, or it’s about squeezing the Rockies out of every penny possibile, or it’s about his ego and the likely false assumption that he can become another Strasburg. If it’s either of the first two, he’s doing just fine, if it’s the last one, he’s making a tragic mistake.
That's it - college vs baseball
Both are great decisions if done for the right reasons.
Not wanting to pitch at Coors is a bit lame (though who wants to screw their HoF chances voluntarily :) ), especially as Colorado are a team on the edge of greatness who are likely to remain contenders until Matzek makes the bigs. If he does make the #1 spot in 3 years, is he really going to be happier in Kansas City or San Diego, or is he hoping the Yanks have a really bad season?
And with that, I'm going to the pub
I hope people don’t notice I really don’t know what I’m talking about most of the time. See you later!
drink a boddingtons for me
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 14, 2009 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions
don't wish that on the poor guy
unless he’s a Giants fan or something. Sheesh. I’d spare my worst enemy from that fate.
Boddingtons is fine!
Unless it’s got all rancid by the time it’s over there.
It was a Youngs pub tonight – I drank Bombardier and Kew Golden Ale. Nice. I’m now at home knowing for certain that more beer would be bad in every respect yet somehow it seems like a really good idea…
I'm confussed
Isn’t the really big money made when a player gets to free agency??? If this kid is as good as he thinks he is PLUS the fact he’s a left handed pitcher of all things, he should be able to sign a deal similar to CC’s. By waiting 3 years, he delays the BIG payday by nearly as long, plus he’ll have 3 less years of earning power, which even discounted back would far exceed the $3-5 million he may or may not be passing up now. Heck, If he does sign he’ll have wasted away millions of $$$ in future earnings potential already. Seems to me that it’s Business Finance 101.
Now that I think about it what confuses me even more is – What’s the goal of the player and agent? Apparenlty it is no longer having a long MLB career and potentially being an HOF or even just a good old fashion Gamer. The money will be there either way.
TGFPR!!
Thats a very good point
He may be tossing away 20+ million on a free agent contract and delaying it for three years for an increase of 5 million on his bonus. I truly think that if you offer him 4 million, he signs.
And the increase in his bonus isn't even guaranteed.
There’s the possibility of an injury or a disappointing college career, not to mention the very real possibility of a new CBA that limits what he could sign for. If this is about money (and not about wanting college for college), he’s much better off signing now. Unless the Rockies really are low-balling him by refusing to budge from $2 million, which I really don’t believe.
interesting
and I’m not sure if this thought contributes here or not, but just for the heck of it…
Now that steroids are “out” of baseball (har har, but bear with me), I expect to see careers shortened significantly. The days of the 30+ player getting a fat payday are probably over, not only because of the fact that players are now more likely to decline at a “natural” rate but also because teams (even the big money teams, see LA for example) have become more focused on youth in general. As such, it seems even more important to get that first huge deal as soon as possible. Haven’t really thought through this, just tossing it out there.
by Teekalong on Aug 14, 2009 2:38 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
A tad frustrating
It certainly would be foolish to give into Matzek’s demands as very few players warrant the money he’s asking for. But it’s still frustrating that the team blew such a high pick. Losing a year of development out of a prospect really hurts, particularly given how thin the lower levels are at this point. Would have been nice to see them take the Nationals route and draft a very signable player at that pick to at least get some value out of it.
And shouldn’t next year’s pick be No. 11? Our pick this year would have been No. 10 if not for the Nationals’ comp pick being slid in there.
We're still compensated for losing the 11th pick, though, not the tenth...
I was a little confused about this myself, but the rule is just whatever your pick was, plus one.
Well that’s a big bowl of messed up.
We demand reparations!
by LawrenceDavis on Aug 14, 2009 12:58 PM MDT up reply actions
Next years draft is supposed to be really deep.
I am ok with the 10, 32nd (we could finish with the best record, ok 26th) 2 picks for losing Marquis. (if he is a Type A)
Marquis won't be a Type A. He has too much ground to make up.
He’s still being the likes of Mike Pelfrey, Paul Maholm, and Kyle Lohse. Ubaldo Jimenez wouldn’t even qualify for being a Type A right now if he were a free agent, though he’s close
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 14, 2009 4:34 PM MDT up reply actions
Can't we just blackmail him with MySpace pics?
"If you're going to be stupid, you'd better be tough."
Pictures that prove
that he was one of the models for the photographed statue above? I’d be down with that.
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