Seth Smith is good and he should start over Hawpe
It’s time for Seth Smith to take his place at the table at the expense of Brad Hawpe. Opponents of Seth have argued that his bat should gather dust on the bench only to be swiffered off for late game heroics. While Smith is lights out as a pinch hitter, he actually performs better earlier in the game posting a .350 Average with a 1.014 OPS in innings 4-6.
Seth burst onto the scene in 2007 during the Rockies run for Awesomeness with a .625 Avg and 1.500 OPS. He then continued his Awesomeness in the playoffs with a .500 Avg and 1.167 OPS. You’ll notice I’m only using two offensive stats for comparison; batting average and on base plus slugging percentage because they cover the basic offensive skills of hitting, reaching base and power.
When comparing their career numbers Smith posts a slightly higher Avg .292 to Hawpe’s .286, however Brad’s OPS of .877 is a tic above Seth’s .872. In looking at their career performances in the second half of the season Seth’s performance improves to .305/.886 while Hawpe’s falls to .269/.833. Brad Hawpe continues to waste AB’s against LHP like he stole them from his Grandmother’s purse, posting .244/.752 against Smith’s .256/.870 and don’t tell me Hawpe has improved because he’s hitting .252 this year, meanwhile Seth is popp’n a .357 (magnum). Hawpe might even be a better late innings PH because his numbers (.297/.878) are higher than Smith’s (.286/.907) in innings 7-9.
So now that I’ve shown why Smith is a better hitter than Hawpe, let’s get to the easy part; defense. It can be argued that defense is more important than hitting and anyone that saw Ian Stewart steal 2 runs from the Nationals while K’ing four times would be swayed. To show how bad of a defender Brad is let's compare him to Barry Bonds. In Bonds final season he was limping from a steroids swollen knee and posted a -15 UZR/150. It was Bonds worst UZR/150 in his final four seasons. Amazingly it was a better defensive year than our Hawpe's -20 this year! On the flip side, Seth Smith is the second best outfielder on the Rockies with a UZR/150 of +19. Which means he saves 19 runs for the Rockies in a season.
HOLD ON A MINUTE!! BRAD HAWPE HAS A GREAT ARM says the man in the backrow. Heck yeah he throws out runners, 3 of them this season the same as Seth Smith. In 137 plays, Hawpe only has 3 outfield assists; meanwhile Smith has 3 in only 66 plays. Starting Smith would allow CarGo to slide into right field, and Carlos has a great arm throwing out 4 runs in 66 plays this season. So have I convinced you? Should the starting outfield be Smith, Dex, CarGo? Let me know.
Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).
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65 comments
Comments
Just for reference..
Adam Dunn has posted similar defensive metrics to Brad Hawpe over the past two years (-20 and -21.1).
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by Charlie77 on Aug 23, 2009 11:45 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
No way this happens this season
but if I am Dan O’Dowd this is something that intrigues me a lot heading into next year. I am certainly no expert on trades, but I am sure Hawpe could bring us something fairly valuable. Maybe a mid to end of rotation starter and a top prospect?
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by jcd823 on Aug 23, 2009 11:50 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Hawpe's contract complicates things
This post isn’t arguing anything in particular, but just a little contract background and how it might affect his trade value:
He’s signed cheaply—$7.5M for 2010, with a team option for $10M for 2011. That’s a plus. However, according to Cots, he can void the option yr if traded. So he’d either be a one year rental, which would bring down his trade value, or the new team would have to negotiate an extension to replace the option yr. That would depend on how badly Hawpe wanted to test the free agent market.
It’s also hard to know whether this offseason he’d be more, or less in demand for non-on-field-baseball reasons: the economy could cause some teams to avoid taking on much money, vs. a lack of corner OF free agent options this offseason. A number of big market teams will have corner OF vacancies (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels and Mets among them). It’s basically Holliday, Bay, and a lot of older players like Damon, Vlad, and Abreu. The market for Holliday should be brisk, and like last year there should be a dropoff for the older players. It will be interesting to see how teams view Bay (and Hawpe, if O’Dowd were to shop him).
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
by FooMan on Aug 24, 2009 9:11 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not going to make a full on argument against this...
… but you do have one obviously misleading statistic in runners thrown out. Not as many people run on Hawpe as run on Smith, due to the reputation of his arm. Other than that, you present an intriguing argument.
by WolfMarauder on Aug 24, 2009 12:34 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Because he has poor range..
Hawpe has to be in the right positioning to throw out a runner, which also limits his chances. While I agree Brad has a better arm than Smith, would you say Hawpe has a better arm than CarGo? Because starting Seth would place CarGo in RF where he has the range to get to more balls and gundown runners, like he did in Anaheim.
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by Charlie77 on Aug 24, 2009 8:08 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Precisely
Smith getting to more balls and Hawpe flubbing more leads to Smith being more valuable, despite Hawpe’s arm.
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 24, 2009 9:29 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
A compelling argument...
A name I have thought about this offseason, as an eventual target if the Rox do decide to move Hawpe, is Carl Crawford. But there is no guarantee the Rays are going to trade him. But I won’t lie, an OF of Crawford in left, Fowler in center, and Gonzalez in right and those three at the top of the lineup makes me drool. I can dream can’t I?
In all reality though, it will be an interesting scenario to play out as to whether the Rockies look at moving Hawpe. His power numbers have certainly taken a hit this year when in comparison to past seasons.
by dclvegas on Aug 24, 2009 12:59 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
If the Rays trade Crawford
It’s to the big boys, right? How could the Rockies even have a hope of landing him?
That would be just the sexiest outfield, though. You can indeed dream.
by biondino on Aug 24, 2009 4:58 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carl Crawford is sexy..
because he is essentially a centerfielder playing in LF. The best defensive outfield has 3 CF’s roaming the National Park known as Coors Field. Which is what makes Smith a good choice in LF as well. In 2008 Smith ranked higher than Willy Taveras in CF based on his UZR/150. He was slightly behind Dex and Spilly in CF by RZR, but still ahead of Taveras.
The Rockies need 3 centerfielders in the outfield and they have some good options this year between Dex, CarGo, Smith and Spilly. FWIW, Spilly has some very good defensive rankings too.
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by Charlie77 on Aug 24, 2009 8:02 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crawford's deal is up after 2010
The Rays have a club option on him for 2010. After that, I’d guess he’s going somewhere with at least somewhat deep pockets. So if the Rockies landed him, it would likely be for just the one season. It would be a fun season, though.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
by FooMan on Aug 24, 2009 8:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
*Cough* Trade Hawpe *Cough*
Brad Hawpe’s time has come and passed. All hail Seth Smith.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Aug 24, 2009 7:34 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
How do you figure his time as has passed?
by SDcat09 on Aug 24, 2009 8:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's not going to get better defensively or (probably offensively)...I mean, this is the late end of his peak.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Aug 24, 2009 10:17 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're assuming he peaks and immediately goes down
perhaps he plateaus?
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 24, 2009 1:11 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm saying that he's plateaued over the last three seasons and will now decline.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Aug 24, 2009 2:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why do some
have a fetish of trading Hawpe?
He has quietly gone about his business for the last few years and is becoming a leader on the team. Why mess with that right now? Oh, thats right, we want to start the Gary Kubiak of the Rockies…
The oxen are slow, but the earth is patient.
by rockieprogress on Aug 24, 2009 8:03 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm no stathead just a fairly educated baseball fan,
but I don’t really see how its fair to compare a starter’s stats with a non starter. It seems like it skews the results in favor of the nonstarter because he has had far less opportunity to fail. I agree with rockieprogress on the leadership factor . How do you figure Hawpe’s time has passed?
I think Seth Smith excels because of his role exactly as it is.
by SDcat09 on Aug 24, 2009 8:45 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorry I meant that for Jabberwocky...
How do you figure Hawpe’s time has passed?
by SDcat09 on Aug 24, 2009 8:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think one definitely has to use more than one season's stats
Hawpe we know a lot about, he’s fairly stead at the bat, and well below avg in the field overall. Smith’s a more difficult case. One significant issue there is that 88% of Smith’s career AB’s have come with the platoon advantage. Does one weigh his 47 MLB PA vs. lefties, where he shows no split, as much as his minor league AB’s, where he does show one? (From Modesto on, it’s .360/.385 vs. lefties and .381/.532 vs. righties). How much does one weigh Smith’s overall minor league stats?
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
by FooMan on Aug 24, 2009 9:30 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I start Smith in a platoon
and valuing Smith’s minor league stats may be just as misleading as using Hawpe’s.
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 24, 2009 9:32 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
? Why?
I think that requires some explanation.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
by FooMan on Aug 24, 2009 12:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oof
I was thinking about Holliday, not Hawpe. Hawpe tore up the minors. I withdraw the point.
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 24, 2009 1:13 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
platoon smith and spilborghs next year
I love Hawpe but he’s at the peak of his value. We have out field depth. We could get a fine haul in position player prospects, which our system seems to lack. A well executed trade here could really give us a chance at contending for several years to come
Your best? Losers alway complain about their best. Winners go out and f*** the prom queen.
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by squalene203 on Aug 24, 2009 2:04 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hawpe is one of the streakiest hitters the Rockies have . . . not steady with the bat.
Maybe over a full season his stats are more or less predictable, but not within a season.
by blooming rock on Aug 25, 2009 1:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, do you think Elway:Kubiak::Hawpe:Smith?
Charlie presented an argument that this is not the case and clearly put some time into it.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
by FooMan on Aug 24, 2009 8:54 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point is
the backup always looks like a viable alternative, but once they take over in the bright lights, they get exposed as a lesser alternative.
The oxen are slow, but the earth is patient.
by rockieprogress on Aug 24, 2009 10:35 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
and there are reasons...
that back ups ARE back ups usually. (sure there are TONS of exceptions)
by Redhawk on Aug 24, 2009 11:04 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's a pretty huge difference between Kubiak and Smith though
Unless “backup” is a magical word that requires no further explanation.
Smith has played well in 275 PA thus far this season. I would also contend that his minor league stats are supporting evidence that he can hit (though apparently RMN thinks there’s a problem with this).
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
by FooMan on Aug 24, 2009 12:30 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
The difference between Smith and Kubiak is..
Seth doesn’t lick his fingers before he takes the snap.
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by Charlie77 on Aug 24, 2009 3:15 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bubby Brister, anyone?
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by frightenedinmate#2 on Aug 24, 2009 3:36 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love me some Seth, but I just want to mention one slight counterargument:
Weren’t we saying these things about Ryan Spilborghs a year ago?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 24, 2009 8:57 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes we were
but Hitler didn’t want Spilly to start…he wants Seth Smith to start.
I like Hawpe. Right now, I think the best line up and the best OF is Hawpe, Fowler, CarGo with Smith off the bench. The main factor in favor of Hawpe is veteran and stability. A team needs leaders, and Hawpe seems that to me for the Rockies (though that may not be the case IN the locker room where we fans have no clue)
Now trading Hawpe in the off season? That’s a possibility. Would he bring close to what Holliday did?
by Redhawk on Aug 24, 2009 9:14 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point about stability is good
I don’t think it would make sense to do something now. I have wondered since the break if it wouldn’t make more sense to give Hawpe a bit more rest, since there wouldn’t be much of a dropoff running Smith out in LF with CarGon in RF. Though you’d think like the locker-room thing, that the coaching staff would be in the best position to assess whether the grind is bring Hawpe down.
Off-season is a different Q though. There’s still a lot to like about Hawpe, but it’s easier to make a move. I suspect he would not bring what Holliday did. Some of my reasons are above, in that his contract is for far less money ($7.5M vs. Holliday’s $13.5M), but supposedly he can void the option year, which takes some of the shine off that $7.5M. He’s also not the player Holliday was.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
by FooMan on Aug 24, 2009 9:23 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if anyone realizes
how much different, this conversation would be if Smith was a Right handed hitter, or even if Spilly had stepped up this year like most of us thought he would. Smith being left handed, as well as CarGo, makes sitting Hawpe question, much harder.
by Redhawk on Aug 24, 2009 9:30 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Question...what is the Hitler reference?
by SDcat09 on Aug 24, 2009 9:37 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
youtube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiU-ncNbGGQ
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 24, 2009 9:40 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just watched it again
oh man it’s clever
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 24, 2009 9:43 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean,
you weren’t the one who made that?
by coolopotamus on Aug 24, 2009 9:51 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
/whistles inconspicuously
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 24, 2009 10:08 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really wish these posts would wait until the offseason.
There will be very little benefit of making any sort of change right now, regardless, and it’s pretty pointless given how well the Rockies are playing. If we weren’t in a playoff race, I’d give this post more attention, maybe even FP it, but you’re trying to fix something that’s not really broken. Taking out a veteran like Hawpe, just like I was saying when all those calls to replace Barmes popped up, will absolutely effect the way this team responds to management. It will effect our ability to retain good players and sign them to contracts in the future. Sometimes these decisions aren’t just about what the WAR values indicate.
And how do I get it through to you that UZR is unreliable with outfielders and those in Colorado in particular? Look at what Willy Taveras did in Houston, look at what he’s done in Cincinnati and look what he did in Colorado in between, did he suddenly become a terrible outfielder and then just as miraculously revert to being decent upon being traded? Hawpe isn’t as bad as he’s made out to be. He’s not good, but his defensive failings are exaggerated by the numbers.
So to sum up, let’s wait until after we win the World Series in November to start talking about making major changes to the starting lineup or rotation, okay?
by Rox Girl on Aug 24, 2009 10:08 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Hawpe's pretty bad, Coors or no Coors
but this was my thought as well, that it’s a bittttt late to unseat a veteran bat, despite the late season slumps he’s prone to.
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 24, 2009 10:09 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again, I'm not ever going to claim Hawpe's anything but a poor fielder,
But he’s not quite as bad as the numbers make it look.
by Rox Girl on Aug 24, 2009 10:18 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't particularly like UZR either
but more so, I dislike that there isn’t anything more reliable.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 24, 2009 10:19 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
RZR isn't bad
but being more of a rate stat, and not being entirely encompassing, I have trouble using it as gospel either
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 24, 2009 1:14 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see how you can say this post has little benefit..
and it’s too late to unseat a veteran. Has there been a benefit in replacing Garret Atkins? Brad Hawpe has a history of poor 2nd half performance and he’s continued that tendency this season. At least by giving him an extended break would help to give him rest and might even improve his numbers— Atkins AVG has increased 33 points since he lost his job.
Neither UZR or RZR are perfect, not even close. What they do is backup the old eye test and anyone can see Hawpe isn’t getting it done defensively. There’s a jet stream in Right Center which needs a RF with more speed to track down those hits.
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by Charlie77 on Aug 24, 2009 3:13 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Had we made this switch in June
sure
You can’t make this switch in late August
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 24, 2009 4:00 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure I can..
Just like I can switch this Post to
Seth Smith Spilly is good and should start over Adam Eaton
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by Charlie77 on Aug 25, 2009 10:47 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't care about UZR, RZR, or any other statistic . . .
. . . watching him repeatedly get back breaks on fly balls, have no range, and fumble the ball while fielding is all I need to make a judgement that he’s a BAD fielder. I don’t know, maybe I was just spoiled by Larry Walker.
by blooming rock on Aug 25, 2009 1:31 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with this
How quickly we all forget where this team would be absent Hawpe’s first half bat. The guy was not a fluke all-star, he was a force. (To be fair, similar arguments can be made for lots of players on the team, the resurgence has been a true team effort.) So now that he’s slumping we should be thinking more about how to fix him rather than running him out on a rail. Smith has been very effective in his role, but as the Spilborgs example (and countless others indicate) there’s no guarantee he’ll outperform Hawpe if he’s given the job, or that Hawpe (post-demotion) could replace the valuable contributions Smith currently makes. To say nothing for morale, which I agree could be a problem.
As for Hawpe’s defense, well I’ll never trust him after the 8th inning of Game 3, but whatever. Like Manny and many others, he’s not completely killing us out there. I’m trying to think of a game recently that I thought his defense seriously cost us, and it doesn’t come to mind. Doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened, for sure. I certainly wish he played better defense, would make my argument much easier.
But all of that is nonsense right now, Rox Girl’s main point is the most important: we’re in a pennant chase here, and we should not be talking about removing a middle of the order bat and team leader. Find ways to fix his slide and/or rest him more? Sure. But let’s not go crazy monkeying with the works. After the season, no doubt we should consider whether moving him is the right strategy going forward. But right now we dance with the one that brung us…
by Teekalong on Aug 24, 2009 10:34 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
SO MUCH THIS!! thank you!
and Rox Girl too
by SDcat09 on Aug 24, 2009 10:41 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does this mean
I don’t get EY2 as the 2nd base starter in 2 weeks?
(in all seriousness, while I think this would make the team better, I’ve backed off of this at this point in the season. At this point, the team is what is. The players are who they are. Unless there is a HUGE drop off in production or injury, THIS is the team that will make the playoffs, or won’t)
by Redhawk on Aug 24, 2009 11:02 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well I think we all more or less agreed that EYJ would be a positive addition to the team
but seeing the management’s inaction with him in terms of bringing him up, there’s not much more we can do but flog a dead horse
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 24, 2009 1:16 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Taveras wasn't horrible in Colorado by UZR standards
His first year was bad, but didn’t he also have a groin injury that season? Holliday was solid by UZR in Colorado, and solid in Oakland.
I do think one does have to be very careful with single season samples, and thus, even more careful about a 421 inning sample.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
by FooMan on Aug 24, 2009 12:33 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
People will discuss what they want to discuss
I didn’t really have much interest in the “your 2010 Rockies” entry at first because I was much more interested in this season.
But the thread had traction. I don’t see how it hurts. There will be more discussions along those lines, so folks who don’t want to participate now can join in during the hot stove league. Ditto for Hawpe.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
by FooMan on Aug 24, 2009 12:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do believe you have me mistaken with someboy else.
That wasn’t my entry, it was by RoxandRoll.
by Rox Girl on Aug 24, 2009 12:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
i have yet to be shown why smith is a better hitter than hawpe
i love what smith brings but if you take away his PH/DH numbers to see what happens when he starts his line is .266/.362/.422/.784
by purplesocks on Aug 24, 2009 12:31 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
You can't take away hitting numbers like that.
Particularly if your premise is that he’s not a better “hitter” than Hawpe,in which case you’d need to take all the hitting stats available, regardless of what role he was in when he came to the plate. And like I said yesterday, I hate this line of reasoning because it’s still operating under a false assumption that Smith’s calling and purpose is as a PH. He’s a starting quality outfielder, his bat’s good enough to play as a starter for a contending team, it’s just the situation that the Rockies have four of them and only three slots to play them in.
by Rox Girl on Aug 24, 2009 12:55 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
im not calling seth smith a bad hitter
what i am saying is that when smith gets the start and pitchers see him more than once he isnt as good as hawpe. this is purely my guess as to whats behind the numbers.
im just trying to see if smith seeing everyday at bats would be better than hawpe seeing everyday at bats. and the stat i cited seems to indicate that smith might have the same issue as spilly. that with more at bats, pitchers begin to figure him out and have adjusted. now there is a sample size issue for sure but i still think the numbers are interesting. and im not saying smith isnt a starting caliber outfielder. im just saying hes not a better hitter than hawpe
and if i cannot take away hitting numbers from smith then you cant take away hawpe’s first half numbers. then its .297/.389/.508/.898 vs .302/.388/.531/.919 in far more ABs
ill finish by putting in the disclaimer that i love seth smith. hes one of my favorite players on the team. i just dont agree with the claim that he is a better HITTER than Hawpe. if we’re talking about full player then yeah maybe cause i will not deny hawpes poor defense. but there should not be a benching of hawpe in favor of smith. yes maybe hawpe should be spelled more to keep him fresh but they should probably be doing that with everyone on the team gearing up for the playoff push
by purplesocks on Aug 24, 2009 4:15 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another note on the hitting side, stats through a similar point in their careers:
Player / Games/ Ave. /OBP /SLG
Hawpe/ 143 / .255 /.336 /.402
Smith / 175 / .293 /.383 /.494
Another important point: Hawpe under contract through 2011 (including option), Smith reaches final arbitration year in 2013.
by blooming rock on Aug 25, 2009 1:52 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow, good find..
It just shows that Smith has a higher floor than Hawpe.
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by Charlie77 on Aug 25, 2009 2:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been in the start Smith camp for awhile
Don’t want to mess up a good thing, but our OF depth gives us some leverage for 1. Secondly, we need to have some RH balance. And I do think BH is going to decline. I’ve always been amazed at the production Hapwe’s bat has given us when you consider his loopy, slow swing. He’s really overachieved iMO. And good for him. But Smith to me has the much higher cieling as a hitter. When you can spot start guys like EY2, Spilly behind him, I think the Hawpe asset needs to be turned into a higher cieling RH batter.
by rururuland784 on Aug 27, 2009 8:34 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

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