Rox can validate their presence in division race

by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 25, 2009 2:57 PM MDT in Know Your Foe Comment 47 comments

The Rockies could be in first place in the NL West Thursday. Let that sink in a bit. Technically, they would be tied with Los Angeles (and the Dodgers hold the tiebreaker), but that's still an incomprehensible achievement.

Remember that Colorado made up exactly zero games in the fifty that Manny Ramirez was suspended. Nada. Since the day Ma'amRam came back (which was the first game after the teams last played almost two months ago), the Rox have gone 30-17, making up 5.5 games on the Dodgers, who helped by going a modest 24-22.

Can the Rockies pull off the comeback by Thursday? Probably not. Sure, the Dodgers' offense has failed to get more than 3 runs in 8 of the past 11 games. Clayton Kershaw looks human and has been beaten up at Coors in the past. Vicente Padilla is making his first start in over three weeks and the Rockies are on an emotional high. But the pitching matchups are not kind to the Rockies, and a series victory will be hard enough to come by.

The rotation's top two starters are skipped for the series including the only Rockies starter the Dodgers have lost to (Marquis, twice). Instead, Jim Tracy will send out two men that failed to make a rotation out of Spring Training. You might be worried about the bullpen fatigue going into two games started by men who could get blown up in a hurry, especially after a late night 14-inning affair. However, the pen is more rested than you'd think. The number of pitches thrown from the pen in the last week:

Pitcher	Tues.	Wed.	Thu.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.
Street	16	10	13	-	8	14	11
Betancourt	-	9	17	-	1	-	10
Beimel	-	-	-	11	-	-	5
Morales	-	15	-	-	10	-	5
Daley	-	-	-	-	26	-	27
Eaton	-	-	-	42	-	-	55
Herges	-	-	-	-	10	-	-
Fogg	-	-	-	45	-	-	-

Street has been used frequently, but his pitch count has been down in every appearance. Thanks to Ubaldo Jimenez (see Tuesday and Sunday), only Matt Daley and Adam Eaton will be unavailable tonight.

Keep in mind that a series sweep isn't the only way to stay in the race. With these pitching matchups, winning the series will pull Colorado within two games, effectively giving the Rockies control of their own destiny.

TrueBlueLA feels the heat the Rockies are putting on, and Eric Stephen also noted the Climb of the Rockies this morning, as I linked in the Rockpile.

Be sure to hang out with the fans at True Blue LA. It's a good crowd and a far better place to be than McCovey Chronicles.

Los Angeles Dodgers (74-51, L1, 1st, 3.0 Gm Lead)

Tuesday-Thursday: 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: B

Manny Ramirez is not producing as expected. However, he's still among the elite hitters talent-wise, and his season wOBA is better than any Rockie. The Dodgers are third in the NL in runs and 3rd in wOBA. So this is the best offense we'll face outside of Philadelphia in the NL.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Rafael Furcal - SS	.256	6	35	.323	.347	.298
Matt Kemp - CF	.312	18	77	.371	.501	.381
Andre Ethier - RF	.282	25	83	.369	.526	.378
Manny Ramirez - LF	.303	13	45	.417	.546	.401
Casey Blake - 3B	.280	15	69	.356	.470	.349
James Loney - 1B	.277	7	71	.350	.381	.322
Russell Martin - C	.258	4	38	.362	.327	.312
Orlando Hudson - 2B	.291	8	57	.358	.425	.347

The lineup construction makes much more sense after Matt Kemp was moved up from the 8-hole. Furcal is still a hole in the leadoff spot, and Torre has shuffled the bottom half of his lineup around recently, as well as the 2-hole. By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one superstar (Ramirez), two strong All-Star caliber players (Kemp and Ethier), two solidly above average hitters (Hudson and Blake), two below average hitters (Loney and Martin) and one flat out bad hitter (Furcal).

Joe Torre's sparsely used and very weak bench includes IF's Juan Castro (.304, 1, 9), Mark Loretta (.224, 0, 22) and Tony Abreu (2-for-8), C Brad Ausmus (.304, 1, 8), and OF Juan Pierre (.319/.376/.403).

The Arms: A-

Clayton Kershaw has been stout all season, and Randy Wolf is having a career year. Vicente Padilla got the pleasure of joining a division-leading rotation that is 3rd best in ERA in MLB. The bullpen has been pitching well, with only Belisario and Mota having ERA's over 3.50 in August. After being scored upon in 3 of 4 outings mid-August, Jonathan Broxton has tossed five straight scoreless outings, allowing only two hits, though he did get his first loss 8/19 without allowing a hit.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jonathan Broxton	7-1	55	0	0	0	27	5	58.0	32	20	19	4	24	87	2.95	.97

Joe Torre's hard-ridden bullpen has been anchored by closer Jonathan Broxton), with righties Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario as setup men. Hong-Chih Kuo is back in the pen from the left side, and George Sherrill was the Dodgers' big deadline acquisition. Guillermo Mota, Jeff Weaver, and James McDonald are the pitchers we want to force Joe Torre to use. Still, only Weaver has been below average as a reliever per StatCorner.

The D: B-

Only three teams have committed fewer errors than Los Angeles, and their UZR/150 is 13th in MLB. Fangraphs rates them 12th in in the league, though notch em down for having Manny in left field for the series. Ethier is also rated as a very poor fielder by FG - in Brad Hawpe territory.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Clayton Kershaw	8-7	25	25	0	0	0	0	139.2	100	47	46	5	80	147	2.96	1.29

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	8-7	25	22	1	0	0	0	125.0	157	71	63	11	31	87	4.54	1.50

Kershaw has been a force to be reckoned with this season, though he's currently in the biggest lull since April. Still, 9 runs allowed in 4 starts qualifies as a lull, that's saying something. Notably though, Kershaw has failed to finish the fifth inning in 3 of 4 starts and is coming off of a bout with the flu. No one has beaten Kershaw up as consistently as the Rockies this season - he's given up 12 ER in 10.1 IP at Coors this year, and hte Dodgers have lost his last six starts. Jason Hammel has given up no more than 3 ER in four straight starts and 6 of 7. Home Hammel does exist (7.02 ERA) but he's kept the Rockies in games, which is all you can ask for. Colorado has won 6 of his last 7 starts at Coors Field with his only loss coming against Matt Cain. Favors: DODGERS moderately.

Wednesday, August 26, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Randy Wolf	8-6	28	27	0	0	0	0	169.2	144	67	63	19	45	128	3.34	1.11

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Josh Fogg	0-1	20	0	0	0	0	0	40.0	26	11	10	4	14	22	2.25	1.00

I don't understand where this Randy Wolf came from. According to Fangraphs, he has MLB's best fastball, which just seems ludicrous. Location location location. Hopefully, he talked to Lincecum Sunday night. In his last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.98 ERA, 0.397 WHIP, 6.00 K/BB and 7.15 K/9. Plus he leads MLB in RBI by pitchers. Josh Fogg has done fine this season, but he's a contact pitcher. Matt Herges is set to relieve him, as long as Hammel doesn't implode tonight, in which case a roster move would need to be made. There's not reason to believe the Rockies can win this game. If they do, they win the series. Favors: DODGERS ridiculously heavily

Thursday, August 27, 1:10 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Vicente Padilla	8-6	18	18	0	0	0	0	108.0	120	61	59	12	42	59	4.92	1.50

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	12-8	25	24	0	0	0	0	141.2	140	79	75	18	58	145	4.76	1.40

Padilla will be making his first start in a Dodger uniform. Coors Field is a nice place for a pitcher to debut. Vicente allowed 2 ER in 5 IP in a warmup start in AAA Aug 22, his first time on the mound since Aug 5. He will be on an MLB mound for the first time in over three weeks, and he allowed 5+ runs in 3 of his last 5 starts in Texas. According to Fangraphs, he's throwing a splitter for the first time in his career this year in addition to a fastball, change, curve, slider and cutter. Only that 92mph fastball has been very effective this season. Jorge de la Rosa has appeared to be more volatile this month after a fantastic July. Still, he has shown much more poise than we're used to, and has won 10 of his last 11 starts. He is 7-5 with a 5.29 ERA at Coors. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

Andre Ethier is pushing .350 in August with 4 HR and Matt Kemp is hitting .301 in August with five dingers. Randy Wolf is in the midst of a strong 3-game stretch. Only Kershaw, Mota and Troncoso have ERAs over 3.50 this month. The pitching staff has allowed 3 or less runs in 8 straight games and 4 or less in 14 straight.

Ice Rafael Furcal is hitting .211 with just two XBH this month. James Loney and Russell Martin are also hitting under .230 this month. The offense scored only 5 runs in the last 3 games vs. Chicago despite winning two, and have scored 2 or less in 5 of 7 games.

Bandaid_medium Doug Mientkiewicz (shoulder - 4/17) and Xavier Paul (ankle - 5/21) are on the 60-day DL. Hiroki Kuroda (concussion - 8/16), Jason Schmidt (shoulder - 8/6), and Will Ohman (shoulder - 5/28) are on the 15-day. James Loney has the flu and may be unable to play tonight, but should be able to pinch hit and start tomorrow. Mark Loretta would be the likely replacement at first.

Poll

Will the Rockies be tied for the NL West lead after Thursday's game?

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEES!!!!! SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP!! TEAM OF DEEEEESTINY!

53 votes

No, but they'll inch to 2.0 GB with a series win, thereby keeping control of their destiny.

151 votes

No. The pitching matchups are not helpful for the Rockies at all in this series. They're a much better team than LA previously faced, so they won't get swept, but I can't see the Rox winning this series.

66 votes

Not even close. The Dodgers have the Rockies number and push them to 6GB with a sweep. Oh well, the wild card is ours to lose (not the Braves') anyway.

26 votes

296 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

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And the kid is not his son

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by Andrew Martin on Aug 25, 2009 3:01 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

i would love to take 2 out of 3

especially with these pitching matchups…Go Rockies!

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

"TuLoRocks2008 had the most comments I've seen in any game thread this year (322)...Can such a feat be eclipsed?" ..... Bring it on!!

lol

the lineup if the game was tied after 14…

ianetta catching

herges pitching

torrealba at first

barmes and tulo still at 2nd and ss

atkins at 3rs

spilly in center

stewart in left

eaton in right…

rofl

by TuLoRocks2008 on Aug 25, 2009 3:16 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I voted team of destiny,

but really, the Dodgers would have to be in pretty bad shape to lose this series given the favorable pitching matchups. I think they’re under much more pressure to win these games than the Rockies are.

by Rox Girl on Aug 25, 2009 3:16 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Can I change my vote..based on the news of

CarGo and Dex to the DL?

by SDcat09 on Aug 25, 2009 3:17 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Destiny doesn't care about the DL ;)

by Rox Girl on Aug 25, 2009 3:33 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

We R the team of destiny!

BEAT LA! BEAT LA!

(Thanks to Denver Nuggets fans)

by prettyinpurple on Aug 25, 2009 3:21 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's one of the things that concerns me going into this series...

The Giants came into Coors with a “D” rated offense, and scored 21 runs, IIRC. This isn’t the old Coors Canaveral days, where you gave up a bunch, and made up for it with an overpowering offense. The pitching matchups do not favor us; we need to make sure that LA (with a more powerful offense) does not hang 5 on us every night.

Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.

by RdRnnr on Aug 25, 2009 3:44 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

It's not like the Rockies can hang 5 of their own in one inning...

Or one swing of the bat, and a pitcher walk.

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by Charlie77 on Aug 25, 2009 4:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well sure they can, Charlie

My point is that has not been the way they’ve been winning this year, and in the Giants series our pitching did not dominate an anemic hitting team, so we might prepare ourselves for some disappointment against a much stronger hitting team. It’s possible that we’ll be eating cheap tacos the rest of the week; let’s hope they’re not sad tacos.

Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.

by RdRnnr on Aug 25, 2009 5:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keep in mind...

despite the awesome ending to last night, that the Rox were extremely lucky to win last night and win that series. They need to realize that the Dodgers pitching isn’t likely to dish out a dozen walks and a couple of E’s each game. Last night’s game was gift wrapped on a platter to us and it took a miracle to take it.

Hopefully Jim is getting the team of destiny focused on consistent offense that runs the bases well and doesn’t rely on big flies to win.

—Buzzkill Out. Let’s go Rox!

by PurpleRox on Aug 25, 2009 3:48 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Kershaw's been walking quite a few lately...

We don’t need to sweep (and Fogg v. Wolf could be ugly). What we need is for Kershaw to continue to be August Kershaw, and we’ll get plenty of baserunners early.

Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave

by Mondogarage on Aug 25, 2009 3:51 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Padilla walks a lot of batters too.

Those two play right into our team’s strengths. We just need some solid starts from our pitchers, though..

by Rox Girl on Aug 25, 2009 3:57 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Remember back when we had Dexter Fowler?

He took a lot of walks….sniff sniff…

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 25, 2009 3:58 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah but Kershaw always walks a ton of batters, even when he’s pitching effectively. In only 8 out of 25 starts this season has Kershaw issued 2 walks or less. He has yet to pitch a game where he hasn’t given up at least one free pass.

Recently, though, like you point out, he has given up considerably more free passes than usual. Here’s how his last 4 starts look:

Mil – 4 IP, 6 BB, 6 K
Atl – 7 IP, 1 BB, 10 K
@ Ari – 4.1 IP, 4 BB, 9 K
Stl – 3.2 IP, 4 BB, 5 K

I would expect that this is something he focused on yesterday in preparation for this game. Furthermore, it would seem that he is “due” for a decent game today.

You wanna know how great baseball is? The greatest basketball player ever left his sport to play baseball.

by Jesse S. on Aug 25, 2009 4:10 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I expect a good game though, even with Hammel out there. Your players have got to be feeling pretty good and confident right now.

I won’t lie either… I am a little nervous. Just a little, though. :)

You wanna know how great baseball is? The greatest basketball player ever left his sport to play baseball.

by Jesse S. on Aug 25, 2009 4:13 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think this game decides the series

It’s probably very unlikely the Rockies win tomorrow, and almost as unlikely that the Dodgers win on Thursday. Just imho, of course. But I think whoever pulls it out tonight wins the series 2-1.

Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave

by Mondogarage on Aug 25, 2009 4:15 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree..

Tomorrow’s game will decide the series. I like JDLR against Padilla, don’t like Hammel at home tonight with the Spilly hangover, but tomorrow should be an old fashioned NL West throwdown between Wolf and Fogg.

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by Charlie77 on Aug 25, 2009 4:28 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really think it comes down to if our least reliable pitchers

can keep your lineup hitting like it has been the last couple of weeks. The Dodgers have a .301 wOBA over the last two weeks, only the Nationals, Reds and D-backs have done worse in the majors over that time. Not really great company. We know they have the talent to be a lot better, but this is a pretty massive collective slump.

by Rox Girl on Aug 25, 2009 4:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and Dex's DL move shouldn't affect tonight's game

It seemed highly unlikely he was going to be in tonight’s lineup even if he didn’t need to go to the DL.

Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave

by Mondogarage on Aug 25, 2009 3:52 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

yea next few days

it wouldn’t of mattered…he was def out atleast 2-3 games

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

"TuLoRocks2008 had the most comments I've seen in any game thread this year (322)...Can such a feat be eclipsed?" ..... Bring it on!!

lol

the lineup if the game was tied after 14…

ianetta catching

herges pitching

torrealba at first

barmes and tulo still at 2nd and ss

atkins at 3rs

spilly in center

stewart in left

eaton in right…

rofl

by TuLoRocks2008 on Aug 25, 2009 3:59 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

And CarGo should definitely be back by then

My thinking is he’s in the starting lineup on Thursday.

Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave

by Mondogarage on Aug 25, 2009 4:01 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

yep i agree

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

"TuLoRocks2008 had the most comments I've seen in any game thread this year (322)...Can such a feat be eclipsed?" ..... Bring it on!!

lol

the lineup if the game was tied after 14…

ianetta catching

herges pitching

torrealba at first

barmes and tulo still at 2nd and ss

atkins at 3rs

spilly in center

stewart in left

eaton in right…

rofl

by TuLoRocks2008 on Aug 25, 2009 4:03 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

EyJr Starting tonight in CF

leading off….get that career going in a good way tonight!

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

"TuLoRocks2008 had the most comments I've seen in any game thread this year (322)...Can such a feat be eclipsed?" ..... Bring it on!!

lol

the lineup if the game was tied after 14…

ianetta catching

herges pitching

torrealba at first

barmes and tulo still at 2nd and ss

atkins at 3rs

spilly in center

stewart in left

eaton in right…

rofl

by TuLoRocks2008 on Aug 25, 2009 4:17 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Now this is the lineup

I have been wanting in LA for a few months now. Glad to see Torre has wised up and got Kemp hitting in front of Ethier and still has Ethier hitting 3rd.

I’m getting scared of what the Rockies have been doing, these guys just won’t quit. I’m hoping Kershaw can keep the walks down to 2 or 3 and if he does that he should be mostly fine. If not, i see only a few hits allowed, but the walks will be high and he will pitch 5 innings at most.

Either way, this is going to be an absolutely huge series, and I’m looking forward to it. Good luck Rockies.

by Ivdown on Aug 25, 2009 4:19 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks man

goodluck to your boys too…going to be a hell of a last 5-6 wks

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

"TuLoRocks2008 had the most comments I've seen in any game thread this year (322)...Can such a feat be eclipsed?" ..... Bring it on!!

lol

the lineup if the game was tied after 14…

ianetta catching

herges pitching

torrealba at first

barmes and tulo still at 2nd and ss

atkins at 3rs

spilly in center

stewart in left

eaton in right…

rofl

by TuLoRocks2008 on Aug 25, 2009 4:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

They are going to need it

Because Martin, Loney, and Furcal aren’t hitting at all right now, and Blake, Manny, and Hudson have been below average to just above average the last month and a half.

Ethier and Kemp have been carrying this offense, so it’s time to have everyone else step up to help those two along with the pitching staff which has been so amazing this month.

by Ivdown on Aug 25, 2009 4:28 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

yea both teams have

some question marks right now…i think you guys will be fine and we are very banged up right now and at a disadvantage in starting pitching battles in this series…but we will continue to fight!…Go Rox

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

"TuLoRocks2008 had the most comments I've seen in any game thread this year (322)...Can such a feat be eclipsed?" ..... Bring it on!!

lol

the lineup if the game was tied after 14…

ianetta catching

herges pitching

torrealba at first

barmes and tulo still at 2nd and ss

atkins at 3rs

spilly in center

stewart in left

eaton in right…

rofl

by TuLoRocks2008 on Aug 25, 2009 4:37 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

True, 2/3 of your outfield is out just after yesterday

but E. Young Jr and Murton have been doing very well from what it looks like in the minors. I just hope the Kershaw that attacks batters is the one pitching tonight, hopefully with his new slider-type pitch (not sure if it’s really a slider or a tigher, faster curve…which I guess would essentially be a slider, lol).

by Ivdown on Aug 25, 2009 4:44 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is it the dreaded Gyroball pitch?

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by Charlie77 on Aug 25, 2009 5:04 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

The EastPN just spent 12 minutes on the Rockies..

with Peter Gammons saying the Rockies will probably cool down and not win the division. Then they dusted the stink off of their NL West coverage and devoted the next two segments to the Yankees and Cowboys.

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by Charlie77 on Aug 25, 2009 4:32 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs