Tuesday Rockpile: Who is the center fielder?
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 4, 2009 8:27 AM MDT
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PrintBattle on Center (Field) Stage
Pair of rookie OFs making great strides - The Denver Post
In 2007, there was little question who filled in the A-lineup, but Jim Tracy has had a challenge finding one this year. Go with the old or young - both with lo averages? Eventually Ian Stewart won out. Go with the quietly reliable LF or the struggling, toolsy young man attached to both Dan Haren and Matt Holliday? Eventually, Seth Smith got the nod. Now we have another position battle on our hands, but this time, both players are young.
Who starts with Dexter gone Fowl? Does Dex know or does the CarGo? Fwhee.
Ugh. That Woody Paige moment was made possible by a lack of coffee. I feel dirty. Sorry...onward...
Apparently Dexter Fowler is wearing down from the season grind, also suffering from growing pains in his back, as he has grown an inch in the past year. I can't imagine. I'm younger than Dex and I don't believe I've grown in almost eight years. Gonzalez is also really starting to hit - he sports a .444 clip since the ASB.
All of a sudden, Carlos has better statistics in his 111 ABs than Dex does in his 319. CarGo has a better strikeout rate (yes, seriously), a better average, better slugging percentage and better wOBA. Is it time he steps in as the primary center fielder. An interesting quote from Jim Tracy:
Tracy admits his ideal roster would include Smith and Garrett Atkins pinch-hitting and Gonzalez and Fowler manning left and center field.
Still no love for Dixie. But hey, if Dex and CarGo earn it by hitting better than Seth Smith, I'm all for it. With a lefty on the mound tonight though, I'd expect Dexter and Spilly in the outfield to start.
Local Links
Rockies' trip to Philly will be a test | ColoradoRockies.com: News
No kidding.
Trades show Rockies expect to win now | ColoradoRockies.com: News
Thomas Harding doesn't buy in to some ignorant national opinions that the Rockies lost their ability to contend with the moves the Giants and Dodgers made. Adding bullpen arms to a horrible back end really does improve runs over actual replacement a great deal.
Giants, NL West are forces to be reckoned with - MLB News - FOX Sports on MSN
Tracy Ringolsby gives love to the NL West to a national audience, which is not well received in the comments despite his well backed stance. Too bad ifs and buts aren't candy and statistics. He does cherry pick so much with one comment it's kind of hysterical though:
The Rockies' current bullpen is the only one in the bigs in which every active reliever has an ERA below 4.00.
Five of those pitchers have no more than 15 appearances with the Rockies, and the best ERA of the nine relievers otherwise used is Ryan Speier at 4.76. The best with over 5 appearances? Randy Flores at 5.63. Going forward, it does look bright. Jusy don't look back.
Improved statistics speak loudly for reliever Morales - The Denver Post
Opponents are hitting .103 off him. He's walked just one man in his last five outings. Even the grand slam he gave up to Tatis last week wasn't a bad pitch or location, though perhaps a bad pitch choice. Now level-headed, Frankie spoke with veterans Yorvit Torrealba and Rafael Betancourt to better understand pitch sequence. He is becoming quite the weapon in the pen. Good thing too - Philly has some scary lefties.
Saunders: Rockies' numbers not exact science - The Denver Post
Patrick Saunders looks at a few numbers that greatly, if not completely, illustrate the Rockies' season.
Other Links
The effects of the MLB trade deadline already are on display - ESPN
Buster Olney reflects on the trade deadline. Interestingly, he agrees with Rox Girl that Atlanta poses the greatest threat to the Giants and Rockies in the wild card. ESPN Insider required.
MLB - Baseball Prospectus - The Cardinals were the big winners at the trade deadline - ESPN
Baseball Prospectus now uses an improved playoffs-odds system to assess winners and losers at the 2009 MLB trade deadline. Insider access required again.
A Sarcastic Reminder Why the Elias Free Agent Rankings Are Dumb - Beyond the Box Score
You'd figure a sabermetric/statistic based blog would be averse to a ranking system that utilizes RBIs and Wins, as the Elias Free Agent Ranking system does. Sky Kalkman sounds off. Of note - the Rockies just added two Type B free agents in Joe Beimel and Rafael Betancourt.
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What is "Other"?
Murton, Spilly, Hawpe?
I vote that.
Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile
by frightened inmate #2 on Aug 4, 2009 8:47 AM MDT reply actions
Haha yeah.
Actually – other ideas of PT i hadnt thought of
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 4, 2009 8:55 AM MDT up reply actions
I'll second that
Hawpe needs to be in the lineup for reliability and Spilly, as well, especially for his high contact at the plate. Gonzalez and Fowler are both excellent players, but have very similar styles. For right now, start one at a time.
The Rockies seem to have an excess of decent outfielders this year. I’m wondering why they could not have packaged one with a few decent prospects or other backups to acquire a player of better offensive quality in the OF. That may be a good option to look into for the future when there is a larger market of players.
spilly
most definitely doesn’t need to be in the lineup.
Especially over Smith.
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
I like the platoon for now
but next year I would like to see Fowler and Cargo both starting….and I really wouldn’t mind looking into moving Hawpe given his career year and defensively liability. Especially for power hitting corner prospects or a 2B. Maybe investigate getting a big right handed bat like Josh Willingham in the meantime.
Other
Have them contest in different duels of strength, skill, and stamina each day to determine which one will start. Such as, hot dog eating, archery, horseback racing, scrabble, and so on.
HAWPE SHOULD BE TRADED!!!!!
Listen people Learn to Read, or whatever. Seth Smith is a better player than Brad Hawpe and having the aging RF shouldn’t stunt the growth of Fowler or CarGo. Look at these comparison stats of Seth Smith and Brad Hawpe this year. Seth has only 9 HR’s compared to Hawpe’s 15, but he averages a homerun every 26 plate appearances same as Hawpe. Meanwhile Seth strikes out less, is a better baserunner and a better defender. The RZR number for Seth is from 2008 because he hasn’t played RF this year, but it’s good to compare defensive stats from the same position and in 2008 Hawpe’s RZR was only .862. So Brad Hawpe should be traded so the younger, and cheaper players can get the opportunities to become better, since in Smith’s case they already are.
……………..HR/PA___K%____BB/K____OBP___Spd____RZR
Smith …… 26.3 …….18% ………0.89 …….391 …….5.2 ……….941
Hawpe……26.3………23%………0.62…….396……..3.6………..882
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Well, of course,
it’s Read and Learn. You’ve gotta get that condescending sarcasm right to enjoy it’s proper effect.
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
Thought Learn to Read is really freakin' funny too.
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
I agree with you with almost everything except
The outfield should actually be Smith LF, Fowler CF, and CarGo RF. Gonzalez had an absolute cannon for an arm and is the smoothest defender I’ve seen this year, and he would work so much better in right than Smith. Smith would become the next Hawpe in the lineup, CarGo’s bat is improving like crazy right now, and Fowler=perfect leadoff hitter. We couldn’t move Hawpe to first because his contract expires the same year as Helton’s (2011) so we need to get as much as we can for him now. I would look for a return of: Top pitching prospect + Top outfield prospect (Hawpe’s value is a little less than Victor Martinez). Spilly should also be traded because he’s getting expensive as well and Murton could probably provide the same offensive/defensive value as well, if not better. A problem though: We would need to find a quality left handed bench bat to replace Smith’s role.
by bballrox4717 on Aug 4, 2009 12:22 PM MDT up reply actions
Yeah his contract expires the same year as Helton's...
… but Helton will probably retire after 2011. Hawpe at 1B after then makes perfect sense to me. But that’s 2 seasons of baseball from now…
Smith over Hawpe?
Hawpe is just in a slump right, just like Pujols. Baseball is not all numbers based. What about veteran leadership in the clubhouse? I think it was lack of playoff experience (besides the long layoff) in the ’07 WS that caused a collapse by the Rox.
One can never discount leadership.
Helton gets paid to lead this team..
Seth Smith is 3 yrs younger than Hawpe and earns $3.5 million less. That’s money which can buy a Jason Marquis to be a leader for the pitching staff.
Additional playoff experience didn’t help the Yankees in 2007, nor did it help the Padres in game 163. The 9 day layoff did more to cool off the hot Rocks than a lack of experience.
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Fangraphs wOBA looks fishy
I don’t think that team page has been updated for the most recent game, or perhaps something else is going on, such as a plain old error. It has CarGon with an OBP of .344; at no point this season has his OBP been that high.
The player pages have CarGon at .339, and Fowler at .338, which is a bit closer to what statcorner has (CarGon at .338, Fowler at .342). For a stat as supposedly straightforward as wOBA, I don’t know why fangraphs and statcorner deviate at all…I wonder if someone is counting something miniscule that the other site isn’t. I wish these things were a little less blackboxish given how heavily we rely on their stats.
Anyway, given how close their OPS would be with a 1.74 or 1.80 weighting for OBP, their overall value is really close right now. BPro’s EQA has them a few pts off as well (w/CarGon higher). 10 pts of wOBA seems a bit much.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Nothing Fishy going on.
If you follow this link here:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/woba_year_by_year_calculations/
You can reproduce FanGraphs wOBA 100% (with maybe the exception of some rounding differences).
FanGraphs includes SB and CS and statcorner includes ROE but no SB or CS and we might use some different weights in adjusting by season.
what about wOBA on the team page vs. players pages
why is the wOBA on the team page (as quoted by the article above—that’s what I referred to as fishy) different from that on the player pages?
Thanks for the info on how fangraphs calculates its woba—have they specifically said they’re following Tango’s recipe exactly?
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
More Answers
Since I run FanGraphs, you can take my word that we are 100% following Tango’s recipe (rounding differences are still a possibility).
What you are looking at on the team pages in the link above is the wOBA for those players while they have played only in the outfield. It does not include games where players might have pinch hit or pinch run. Maybe this is a point of confusion that needs to be changed and I’ll look into it.
In any case, that is the difference between the OF filter on the team pages and his stats page.
Hawpe defensive liability?
I read a lot of comments on Hawpe being a defensive liability, and I think most of that comes from his UZR and range factor ratings.
One of the problems I have with this is that these stats do not include the baserunners who do not advance because of his arm.
His assists are low because people do not run on him. I believe he saves one to two bases a game on runners who don’t go first to third or second to home on singles, and this isn’t accounted for anywhere. Do people really believe that Hawpe is a huge liability in right field?
CarGo and Fowler both have guns for arms as well
I’ve read tons of scouting reports that said Gonzalez was perfectly suited for right field. Left Field should be the realm of Smith.
But wait till offseason people when hawpe’s value will never be higher
by bballrox4717 on Aug 4, 2009 12:13 PM MDT up reply actions
Hawpe this off season will be interesting
He’s now one of the few position veterans on the team.(assuming Atkins and Torrealba are both gone) He could be re-signed and replace Helton at 1st…or he could be traded for prospects that might be an impact in the future.
Do the Rockies go all young in the OF….and pass up the proven track record of Hawpe?
I agree Hawpe’s value will never be higher then it will be this off season.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
Baseball is in an age where the younger, more athletic players beat the older veterans
A Smith/Fowler/CarGo outfield is very intriguing considering the stats Charlie showed above, because it’s light-years better on defense, Fowler and CarGo are young and improving at the plate, and also since we really do need some position prospects in the system.
by bballrox4717 on Aug 4, 2009 12:34 PM MDT up reply actions
Agree on younger is usually better then older
but a team still needs a mix. It still needs veterans that have been around the block. Now I know that freaks out the stats are the only thing people, and veteran presence can’t be measured at all…but team chemistry mix is still part of building a winning club.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
I'm in agreement with you here.
As I mention below, I’m nervous about the idea of an all young outfield if we still want to be competitive next year.
Yes it will be interesting
On one side I want to see him stay—he’s homegrown, and not too expensive. On the other hand player loyalty doesn’t win games, so trading him could bring a nice return. The fan in me wants to see him stay, because so few players stay with their original teams through their careers. So it will be interesting how the battle between sentimentality and practicality plays out
Well, it was higher before the trade deadline (or when I recommended he be traded in May)...
but yeah.
Eschew Obfuscation!
Hawpe has only 2 outfield assists this year...
While his positioning and play on balls in the air is higher and that leads to a higher RZR than in the past, he’s not throwing runners out. Look at this comparison:
………..Games….Assists
Hawpe…….93….2
Smith………52….3
CarGo……..35….3
DEX………..93….4
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One more outfielder ...
Not sure why you didn’t include Ryan Spilborghs assist numbers …
Games Assists
Spilborghs 70 7
He’s higher than everyone else, even Cargo slightly. Know why? Because people try and run on him. The fact that Hawpe has 2 assists playing everyday in right field tells you how often runners try and advance on him.
My point is that defensive stats are probably the least accurate, or maybe just the least mature and subject to interpretation. The fact that runners don’t advance on Hawpe has tremendous value.
Charlie mentions below that they've tried to put a number on this.
At THT. Regardless, I think you’re overstating this value he has, even though I agree that it is real. He doesn’t allow many long singles to turn into doubles, but this doesn’t make up for the issue of allowing so many singles and doubles to begin with. I do believe that UZR devalues Colorado outfielders more than necessary for some reason, but overall Hawpe’s still a liability in the field.
Although that said, I don’t know if I trade him in the offseason. You’re putting a lot of risk relying on Smith/CarGo/Fowler to be as good as advertised right away. I’d prefer we keep Hawpe at least one more season after 2009.
I don't think enough of a value is placed on defense...
and the reason for that is because it can’t be viewed as a stat such as OBP. UZR does a good job of converting defense into quantitative value of runs. The UZR/150 shows runs prevented over an entire season. Here is a look at UZR/150 for the current starting lineup compared to an ideal lineup, the current lineup costs the team over 7 runs per season while an ideal lineup would save nearly 60 runs per season:
CURRENT
Hawpe -15.9
Fowler -17.4
Smith +25.9
TOTAL: -7.4
IDEAL
Spilly +8.3
CarGo +25.5
Smith +25.9
TOTAL: 59.7
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I'm sorry, but I can't accept those numbers as correct.
I realize that defense is hard to quantify, and UZR represents one of the best attempts to do so thus far, but has Dex really given up 8.5 runs because of poor range? Or 11.3 total? They have Tulo as about average among MLB shortstops, with a worse range than Derek Jeter, Ryan Theriot, and Edgar Renteria, to name a few.
So, which is it? Are we all wrong to consider Dex and Tulo to be good defenders, or is UZR a flawed metric?
UZR isnt flawed as much as it has samp,le size isues and accuracy volatility
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 4, 2009 8:38 PM MDT up reply actions
UZR park adjustments
I went back and read the older docs—UZR definitely uses a pretty strong pf for plays in the Coors OF. It’s like .91 or something in CF and RF.
Holliday rated well, Spilly does well, and when Hawpe has done poorly, it’s also shown up in plus/minus. I think the small sample warning exists (thus, be sceptical about numbers for Smith, CarGon and Dex), but there seems to be a lot of statistical evidence that Hawpe is a pretty bad OF (a -10 or -15 runs yr type guy).
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Yes
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 4, 2009 12:14 PM MDT up reply actions
I was sitting above the right field scoreboard in Game 3 of the WS
Yeah, he ain’t great shakes out there. Its seared into my brain. And the whole “afraid to run on him” argument is one of those great baseball sayings that isn’t really based on empirical evidence.
THT has a stat called...
Outfield Arms, it was coded by Brian Donovan in 2008 and he explains his methodology here. The stat isn’t updated for 2009 for some reason, but in 2008 Brad Hawpe was rated 17th in holding runners, just above Punk Upton.
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Cool site
This is a pretty interesting subject. If you look at 2006, Hawpe’s first full year in RF, you can see he is the third best RF on this stat list.
2006 – 3rd
2007 – 17th
2008 – 17th
Has Hawpe’s arm fallen that badly from 2006? Maybe, but I wouldn’t agree based on watching him play. Any theories as to why he has fallen down this list?
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