The two sides are far apart and it doesn't seem like Matzek is one of the high school arms who's paying attention to what the other pitchers of his ilk are doing. He's had his number from the get-go -- believed to be in the $7 million range -- and hasn't budged from it.
Jonathan Mayo - Clock ticking for teams to sign top picks.
Okay, the way this is worded actually seems like Mayo may have a little bit more inside info on the state of negotiations than what we've seen from other sources, but he still brings up the dorm room red herring anyway. Nonetheless, it's not promising news here.
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"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
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by Russ Oates on Aug 5, 2009 9:42 AM MDT via mobile reply actions
Yep...
I’m guessing the offer the Rockies have on the table is over slot, less than $2.5 million, and has been sitting there for about a month. It sounds like the figure Matzek has in mind is still laughably large. The Rockies may or may not come up with something more in the late stages to put the pressure on, but Matzek is going to have to come down now or later if he expects to get into the MLB.
This is probably a dumb question:
but does the reluctance to sign factor into the expectations for a prospect, or is “holding out” just par for the course? Do you get a pitcher who doesn’t really give a shyza because he’s paid now, or just tends to vary, or not a factor, etc?
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
Holding out is just par for the course with the current arrangement.
I mean, it could add make-up points if you’ve got an elite talent player who’s willing to sign quickly anyway because they just want to get on the field, but holding out for what they think their worth doesn’t negatively impact a player.
I'd imagine a high schooler like Matzek would have a lot of leverage though, right?
Someone with the potential that he has can go to school for a couple years, and his value as a prospect will still be really high.
Or will he not have as much value in a couple years? I dunno, that’s why I’m asking.
I think if he goes to school, he's locked in there for three years.
Someone correct me if I’m wrong.
nope you're right...
And because of the loss of leverage, college players will typically sign for less in the same draft slot that high school players do. Given the very long odds of improving his draft position, even if he has a fine college career, the uncertainty with the CBA and the chance that he suffers some sort of setback, Matzek has a very low likelihood of getting a bonus as high as whatever the Rockies best offer will be. If he’s in this for the money, his safest bet is to take the Rockies offer.
No Holly, you're right
There are just so many variables in the next three years, that I don’t know if you can call it leverage. What if he gets hurt? What if he doesn’t develop? What if the next CBA takes effect before he is eligible and draft bonuses are fixed? These are all things that Matzek needs to seriously consider before turning down a serious chunk of change while 18 years old and having the opportunity to play baseball for a career.
Thanks for the clarification.
Maybe this is just projecting myself into Matzek’s shoes, but I think he’d be silly not be drafted this year.
Or not sign with the Rox, rather.
As he’s already been drafted :)
I was afraid of this
though not completely shocked. By getting Wheeler and Brothers, it wouldn’t be a lost draft if he didn’t sign, but man…
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 5, 2009 9:49 AM MDT reply actions
If there is a place to spend this is it
it might be $7Mil, but still much less than trying to pay a major FA pitcher to come to CO. I am very afraid we are losing out on a future Kershaw here.
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
$7 million is just too much, though...
He’s still a long way from being an MLB ready pitcher, he’s not Rick Porcello or Doc Gooden. I wish the Rockies would open their wallets to a point, but that’s a ridiculous point. Next year’s draft is really deep, we should be able to get an impact player at close to the same slot in 2010. I say walk away if the price is still $7 million.
I think Matzek is getting bad advice
given the potential for a much harder slot system in the draft by the time he is eligible again. And it just pushes out his free agency even further. And that doesn’t even get into the possibility of an injury or regression.
Bad advice is exactly it.
Didn’t we have another pitcher draftee that did this a couple of times and is now working in a tire store? Not that there is anything wrong with working in tire stores, but his income level is probably a bit less that he would have as a professional pitcher.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
And there's the whole time value of money thing
If he turns down $4.5 million today he needs to get $6 million in three years for it to be worth it.
at the same time
It isn’t as if Matzek is gonna go play Indy ball or something, he’s stepping into an excellent program at Oregon
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 5, 2009 11:34 AM MDT up reply actions
An excellent but poor as dirt program...
They pretty much blew their operation budget on Horton, and while the existing facility is nice, money does add to the buffet table among other things.
How is Oregon poor?
That AD has more cash than anyone on this side of the country (and maybe anywhere) by a long shot. Does Phil Knight dictate all his money going to garish unis for the hoops and FB teams?
no, OU baseball has ugly unis too...
Isn’t most of the Phil Knight money already spoken for? I know Pat Kilkenny really pumped a lot of cash into the program in the hopes of it eventually becoming profitable, but that dream was pretty sketchy to begin with. With a new football oriented AD, I guess I just don’t see Belotti taking the same emphasis on reviving the baseball team. They don’t generate nearly the revenue OSU does, and even the Beavers operate baseball at a significant loss.
I really have no idea about Oregon baseball
I went to AZ, and back then only ASU, Stan and the LA schools were worth talking about in baseball in the Pac. At least as far as I can remember. In any case, I have no idea how Oregon spends its Nike money but it seems that there’s so very much to go around, and Nike does sponsor baseball in general, that they’d be rolling in cash. That’s why I was surprised at your comment.
That's what it seems like to me, to.
It just seems so obvious to me that given all the factors you mention (particularly the very real possibility of changes to the draft with the next CBA) he’d be better off signing now. Unless he really, really just wants to go to college. But it doesn’t seem to me like that’s the issue.
Hey Holly, and all of our other BYU connected members...
I thought I’d give you guys a heads up that SBN just launched a BYU blog, Vanquish the Foe.
For fans of the MWC in general, we added Mountain West Connection. I don’t know if we have a CSU or AFA blog in the works yet or not.
But if anyone
knows of a good CSU or AFA blog, let us know.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Let's Go Air Force
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 5, 2009 12:57 PM MDT up reply actions
Plus One...Hundred.
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
I want to go to
a baseball game there. Grass IF, Artificial turf OF. I almost went this last year as Mines was supposed to play down there but then we had a blizzard and things got a little messed up.
And oh yeah: GO AIR FORCE!!!!
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
For Air Force:
http://www.fanblogs.com/mountain_west/air_force/
http://gazetteafasports.freedomblogging.com/
http://mwcfootball.wordpress.com/
None are great, and all fail the Purple Row Quality Test.
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
You know,
your last link moved their blog over to SBN yesterday.
"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
I agree $7mil is too much
Especially with a potential injury card
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 5, 2009 10:27 AM MDT up reply actions
7 million is only too much
if he sucks. if he’s awesome, it’s worth it. I know that might not exactly be helpful, but the fact is that if the kid turns into Kershaw ain’t one of us going to complain about his price. Moreover, if he turns into Kershaw for somebody else, we’ll all be reminding ourselves of how he could be ours but-for the cash.
I’m beating my own dead horse here, but we knew this guy was going to be expensive. If we weren’t willing to play ball here, we shouldn’t have. DOD made this pick, and now it is HIS JOB to get him signed. I’ve eaten a ton of DOD crow the past few months, but this will set me back bigtime.
I don't know
nor do I care. I do know that he signed, and now he’s going to be killing us for many years.
I guess what I'm trying to get at is that Kershaw's bonus factored in the risk
to the Dodgers that Kershaw wouldn’t actually become Kershaw. This is how an actuarial/projection type of contract (which is what any contract for a prospect is) should work in a fair market. Matzek’s $7 million demand factors in the reward but none of the risk involved for the Rockies, caving to something like that is a foolish way to run a business, even if it does pay off.
I'm not saying
that you just pay the kid whatever he wants, no questions. Obviously that is not a wise approach unless you are 100% convinced that he’s a sure thing, which is never true in baseball. That said, clearly we are going to have to go above slot, and possibly far above slot, to sign him, and my suggestion is that we do it. Unless I’m vastly overrating the kid, sometimes it takes $$$ in sports, and this seems like a good time for it.
Moreover, even if it is “gambling” in a way, isn’t it still generally worth it in terms of baseball economics? I mean, we’re paying Yorvit 3.75M this year, 7+ for his deal overall. If you could go back and not sign Yorvit last year and instead sign a cheap AAAA type guy and also add a potential ace pitcher to your minor leagues, wouldn’t you do that? (And I’m not even a Yorvit hater, half the folks around here would probaby rather just set that money on fire than give it to Yorvit, let alone use it to develop a future stud)
but why pay $7 million this season for Matzek
vs. something like say $2.5 million next year for a similar talent? Especially if that talent’s closer to MLB ready? We’d get the Matzek like reward just as quickly, but have the money left over to sign another Yorvit if we wanted. The 2010 draft is shaping up to be one of the deepest in years, the Rockies and other mid or small market clubs need to wield what leverage they have or the prices for signing anybody just will continue to rise to the point that they are blocked out from the best talents most seasons.
Well
if you really think that we can get “similar” value for 2.5 next year, than this point is academic and we should all not really care about this signing. Take it or leave it, ho-hum.
That is not my impression, perhaps I’m wrong.
Thats a huge "if"
and I’m worried that the Rox feel like they did something out of the ordinary in going for talent over slightly less talent/signability, and may not do it again if they get burned on this one. I hope they are able to get this same talent for less next year and that they are willing to risk it again to get the best talent available, but I’m not counting on it.
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
It's not a huge if... it's not even an if...
High impact players are available at that 11 slot every season, even in weak drafts:
Given that this draft will be deeper than any of those, there’s no reason whatsoever to worry that an impact player won’t be available to the Rockies next season. The second question about getting burned doesn’t come into play either as this was always the calculated risk that he wouldn’t sign. It’s no big hit to the overall vision like the Matt Harrington debacle was.
Too risky
You’re rigt that $7 million is only too expensive if he sucks. But you could say the same thing about the Rocks 40th pick, too. Imagine of the Dodgers gave Piazza $7 million after drafting him late. In that case it worked out, but would anybody think that was the right move?
Matzyuk has a good chance of succeeding, but how much can the Rocks bet on that? How much of your annual salary would you bet that he makes the bigs and gives some kind of return-however you measure it?
by RMH on Aug 5, 2009 12:46 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
You never know how it will play out
A kid can say all the right things and then it all gets flipped. No team in baseball always gets their firtst round high school picks signed not even the Red Sox and Yankees, and sometimes, the right move is passing on a bad contract. It stinks when it happens, but the kid is 3 to 4 years away in the best case scenario and his signing doesn’t make or break the team…the mlb draft is just too deep.
Too risky for the $$$
I understand young, electric arms, but I have almost always hated giving high school pitchers big signing bonuses. Most of the notable ones have been way over-pitched, learned to throw breaking balls way too early and are completely unpredictable, and with the economic situation, I don’t think a lot of teams want to pony up enormous signing bonuses for their newbies especially when you are a team with a fairly deep talent pool.
I would hate for him to walk, but this just might be his way of saying he doesn’t want to pitch in Colorado.
Your last line
has always concerned me. He didn’t seem the least bit happy about being drafted. Maybe he was just steamed that he slipped so far, but I like to see a bit of youthful exuberance when a kid’s dreams come true and here, none. Hopefully he’s been watching games for the past few months.
Hey if he isn't interested...
then he isn’t interested. Keep the money and use it on two 1st rnd picks next year. It isn’t the end of the world if this kid doesn’t sign.
TGFPR!!
This is where I unfortunately agree
I don’t get the impression he wants to play for the Rox at all, now if het gets $7M he would pitch for anybody. Thats the only reason I have a problem w/ giving him the $7M. However the bottom line is this is the type of scouting and research that should be done before the draft. They should be able to get a feel for whether he would want to play in CO or not, if not why waste a pick on him. There were some other high ceiling players left that would not leave us feeling like we just drafted for signability, and that we might have a chance of signing.
This may all be a moot point if he’s signed, but I am not feeling good about that right now. I think this may be a great left handed electric arm that we are losing out on. And if he does turn into a Kershaw it will be a sad day, as I do think Kerhaw will be a dominating pitcher for years to come.
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
Lessons
Maybe he aspires to become a Latrell Spreewell…unloved and alone.
The only way of getting over the stigmatism about pitching in Colorado
is to keep winning. Getting to the playoffs (WS even better) 2 of the last 3 years would go a long way to help. It won’t get Matzek in before the deadline, but it might help to change the perception for next years crop of youngin’s.
Strasburg is overrated
The reason I say this is because he pitched in the Mountain West Conference…i.e. one of the more weaker baseball conferences in America. The reason I know this is because the Air Force Academy, Utah, BYU, TCU and CSU suck at baseball.
Yep,
I totally am going to trust your opinion on Strasburg and MWC baseball since you don’t seem to know that CSU doesn’t even have a freaking team.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
The club team won the National Championship last year.
That’s a….thing.
Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile
by frightened inmate #2 on Aug 5, 2009 11:16 AM MDT up reply actions
they have one of the strongest club teams in the nation
I believe they have a viole national chamionships
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 5, 2009 11:50 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I don’t think a stat showing the Mountain West to be the seventh strongest conference in all of Division I baseball really does a whole lot to strengthen your argument.
Also… is there any real reason besides a desire to go out on a limb that you think a guy with possibly the most electric stuff to ever come out of college is going to bust? I don’t want to turn this into a Strasburg thread, but I have to hear this.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
vs who in the world?
Vs the WBC teams? Because that’s muchmuchmuchmuchmuch different than the team USA he pitched for.
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 5, 2009 1:00 PM MDT up reply actions
Olympic baseball really doesn't impress me
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 5, 2009 10:19 PM MDT up reply actions
CSU doesn't have a baseball team
I would know, as UNC in Greeley is the only school above DII to have baseball in the state.
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
As mentioned above
CSU has a club level baseball team that has won five of the last six national titles. Their head coach works at my company. It may not be a team full of scholarship athletes, but instead is filled with kids who have to pay their own way to play baseball at a collegiate level. The coach told me that every one of them is enthusiastic to learn, willing to listen, and just as talented as kids who were given scholarships. It is only CSU’s overall lack of funding (and consequent Title IX considerations), that prevents their club team from being a bona fide Division I program in the MWC.
I jumped in late
and didn’t read the posts below the one I responded to before responding myself. Congrats to the CSU Club team, it almost makes me want to go watch them play some time. Too bad they can’t get their actual team back.
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
Isn't there more than just the $$$
Porcello is signed to a MLB deal so a similar deal would put Matzek on the 40-man.
I don’t get the sense that the team is low balling him. I’d be ok with something in the $4-5 million range and suspect that part of the slow down is waiting for players to sign in front of him. Though, I’d be suprised if the agents aren’t talking amoungst themselves already.
If this was my kid – I’d of had him in uniform a month ago. If he’s all that he thinks he is, he’ll earn 10x or more the couple of million he’s grabing for now by getting to FA at 26 than at 30.
As has been mentioned, if he wants $7 mil plus – we walk knowing that we made a solid offer and will take someone else in a deep draft next year.
TGFPR!!
4 million
If they let him walk without offering atleast 4 million then I will be upset. Shelby Miller was a reasonably likely get at that price point (or perhaps even lower) and Alex White and Crow should have been safer picks for over slot (but not outrageous) contracts.
Going for a high value guy who required a reasonable but over-slot contract was a great move. I just hope that they didn’t bite off more than they can chew (or that they didn’t basically just ‘throw’ the pick in order to roll it over to next year’s draft to avoid spending the money this year).
I agree here... I'd want them to offfer somewhere in that range,
But seven million is just too far out there.
Jim Callis chat
There was a Matzek question on Jim Callis’s ESPN chat today. He doesn’t appear to have any inside information, though.
With virtually all the players looking to sign for well above MLB’s slot recommendations, negotiations are only in the preliminary stages. Teams don’t want to tick off MLB any sooner than their going to have to, so all those deals will be finalized in the days before the draft. That said, Matzek is probably the biggest risk not to sign among the first-rounders. He told teams he wanted “unprecedented” money, which is believed to be greater than the high school draft record ($7 million by Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello). The Rockies also had picks 32 and 34 in the draft and got two great values in Tim Wheeler and Rex Brothers. Signing Matzek at No. 11 would be a coup, but not signing him won’t kill their draft. They aggressively took the best player on the board rather than letting him fall to a rich team, which more clubs need to do.
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