Tidbits Jim Tracy should watch for as we roll down the stretch
As Counting Rocks already explored a bit of Chris Iannetta's slumping 2009, we should probably take note of other notable numbers for the Rockies as we continue in this already Hot August.
For starters, let's take a look at our surging SS Troy Tulowitzki.
If you haven't noticed yet, Tulo's been pretty beastly. He came up pretty short, posting a combined .226/.319/.396/.324 line (AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA) through April and May, leading many to begin Angel Berroa comparisons again. Many immediately lept to Tulo's defense, citing good defense and a relatively decent bat, relative to his position, to merit his continued playing time.
However, since then Tulo has ramped up his game from June through August, to the tune of .306/.411/.634/.435. While I don't expect these mammoth numbers to continue, at this level of power anyhow, his batting average hasn't been super inflated. He's only sporting a .318 BABIP during these past months, which is far from abnormal. Sure, he'll come down to earth a smidge, probably closer to a .290-.295 AVG, but it should also be noted that his numbers in his short MLB career show a .371 wOBA in August and a .377 in Sept/Oct (think like a mid-.800s OPS for those of you who don't enjoy wOBA).
Next on our list of players to watch is our own Ian Stewart.
Click past the jump and see what we have to say about him
Stew had such an abysmal May that it dragged his solid April number straight down to the pits. Seriously, .141/.236/.359/.261. Not even a bit impressive. Well, it depends on how you look at it. His performance was flat out unacceptable. The good to take out of it was the .095 IsoD and the .218 IsoP. Excellent patience, and power numbers we expect to see out of Stew. I'm surely not excusing him, but at least he's not showing any massive signs of power outage or complete impatience or whatever.
But I digress.
If you take that ugly May line out (and I know it's picking and choosing, but just roll with it), Stew has posted a .252/.348/.518/.374 line this season. Those numbers play in any MLB lineup, especially in the 5 or 6 spot. With the On-Base skills of Dex, Helton, Hawpe, and Tulo this season, that .518 SLG will definitely plate its fair share of runs.
Now, the Redhawk's among us will tell you that his .252 AVG isn't acceptable, and in a sense, I agree, we'd always like to see higher. But it should be noted that Stewart was a .279 career hitter in the minors, so I don't think he's going to start magically challenging Ichiro to any batting titles during his career.
That said, Stewart hasn't really had a lot of time to establish solid MLB splits, so it's hard to just look back at, say, August 2008 and see what he's gonna do, it was effectively his rookie season. MinorLeagueSplits brings us just that, his minor league splits, and they warn us about an August slump. Stewart posted a career minor league August line of .237/.311/.407/.311.
It should also be noted, however, that Stewart logged 114 MLB PA in August of 2008, batting a line of .295/.439/.526/.409.
A September slump is what just might get him, though. He posted an OPS of .434 in September '08, and I won't bother with the more detailed numbers, I think that figure tells enough.
Next, let's take a look at our own favorite discussion piece, Clint Barmes.
I'll keep this brief, as we've all hemmed and hawed over Barmes' ability to produce at the plate. Here are Barmes' career month-to-month wOBA splits.
|
Split |
wOBA |
|
April/March |
.359 |
|
May |
.327 |
|
June |
.336 |
|
July |
.317 |
|
August |
.259 |
|
Sept/Oct |
.290 |
Barmes starts off hot, bats about average in May, heats up in June, cools off in July, and then falls apart August-September. How's his 2009 looking, relative to his career?
|
Split |
wOBA |
|
April/March |
.346 |
|
May |
.365 |
|
June |
.358 |
|
July |
.273 |
|
August |
.098 |
It looks like he flip flopped a couple of months, but the trends are still there.
Observe.
Look, I'm not saying he won't rebound and do alright, he has made this his best offensive season so far in his career, but the trend is pretty undeniable. Even in 2007 in AAA Colorado Springs, his OPS dropped as soon as he hit July/August:
|
Month |
OPS |
|
April |
.866 |
|
May |
.757 |
|
June |
1.006 |
|
July |
.751 |
|
August |
.721 |
I think I've driven this point home.
Finally, we'll discuss our favorite failfest, Garrett Atkins.
Atkins is a notorious 2nd half hitter for us. Right? I mean, look at 2007, he was flat 1st half and then took off 2nd half, he's a 2nd half hitter! It's pretty much written in stone. Right?!
|
Career Total |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
|
First Half |
.293 |
.361 |
.534 |
.895 |
.366 |
|
Second Half |
.310 |
.378 |
.496 |
.874 |
.387 |
Well, a .021 wOBA swing is definitely an improvement. Funny how his OPS actually suggest he's a WORSE 2nd half hitter. So if Atkins is sporting a wOBA of .303 during the first half this season, should we expect something along the lines of a .324 wOBA for the 2nd? Well, maybe, maybe not. We obviously can't just add wOBA and call it accurate, it doesn't work like that.
ZiPS is calling for Atkins to post a .352 wOBA for the rest of the season, OPSing just above .800 - which isn't TOOOOOOO bad, but considering we're seeing another 20 points of wOBA into that PLUS a better glove, it's hard to rationalize Atkins, despite his big June.
Unless we look at his other splits.
Atkins has a career .305/.397/.496/.389 split against LHP, including a .281/.387/.469/.366 line just in 2009. Now, if Atkins had been putting up those numbers across the board, Stewart would still be at 2B.
Speaking of Stewart, let's take a quick glance at his lines v LHP:
|
Year |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
|
2007 |
.100 |
.182 |
.200 |
.382 |
.181 |
|
2008 |
.370 |
.433 |
.704 |
1.137 |
.477 |
|
2009 |
.181 |
.289 |
.389 |
.678 |
.300 |
|
Career Total |
.250 |
.338 |
.500 |
.838 |
.360 |
Take a look at that 2009 line there. Those numbers don't play, I'm sorry to say.
As long as we're looking at big splits, let's take a quick glance at a couple of other guys and how they fare against LHP:
|
Year |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
|
2005 |
.289 |
.312 |
.456 |
.767 |
.338 |
|
2006 |
.267 |
.327 |
.419 |
.745 |
.333 |
|
2008 |
.307 |
.333 |
.614 |
.947 |
.397 |
|
2009 |
.293 |
.368 |
.610 |
.978 |
.421 |
|
Career Total |
.302 |
.345 |
.531 |
.876 |
.377 |
|
Year |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
wOBA |
|
2006 |
.326 |
.392 |
.432 |
.824 |
.386 |
|
2007 |
.285 |
.386 |
.358 |
.743 |
.346 |
|
2008 |
.246 |
.388 |
.290 |
.678 |
.339 |
|
2009 |
.299 |
.339 |
.359 |
.698 |
.329 |
|
Career Total |
.304 |
.405 |
.468 |
.872 |
.391 |
Would you believe that the first batter is Barmes, and the second is Todd Helton? Pretty strange stuff, huh?
So what have we learned from all this? Or, as the article title says, what should Jim Tracy learn from this?
1. Tulo is a beast and should be starting in at LEAST the 5 hole. Check, done.
2. Clint Barmes' bat is going to get more terrible from here.
3. Ian Stewart is a stud. Don't you worry about that May.
4. Garrett Atkins being a 2nd half hitter isn't quite as pronounced as we thought.
5. Garrett Atkins can still hit Lefties really well.
6. Ian Stewart can't.
7. Barmes can, though!
8. Helton, however can't.
So where now? Well, basically, Stewart sits v LHP. Atkins starts at 3B, Barmes at 2B - and based on the numbers we just saw, they downright deserve to. Helton stays because his .329 wOBA, while poor, is still better than Stew's .300. Plus Helton + Glove = Starting. (FYI, Hawpe has an .849 OPS v LHP.)
Our problem now is the issue of who starts at 2B v RHP. We could move Stewart to 2B and start Atkins at 3B v RHP, but Atkins sucks v RHP. So Stewart is the guy at 3B v RHP, and I suppose we're just stuck with Barmes and his walloping .673 OPS v RHB and stellar glove.
To conclude, this is the point where I want to see O'Dowd start to do something. Q's .429 OPS v RHP aren't terribly indicative of making him the new choice at 2B, so once again, I think we need to raise the "Free EYJ" banner again, or maybe even "Free Mike McCoy". Point is, we have a big hole in the infield that just cannot hit RHP, whether it comes in the form of Barmes or Atkins.
Jim Tracy has a lot to think about as we continue in August and hope for an exciting September.
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30 comments
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Comments
Good stuff
one obvious point I’d make here to Tracy: if you leave Barmes in v. RHP due to defense “gamer” stuff, he cannot be in the 2 hole. Seems obvious that Smith should be #2 v. RHP.
by Teekalong on Aug 5, 2009 11:29 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
and it further emphasizes our team's platooning
or at least how we should be platooning
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 5, 2009 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Platooning doesn't always work
while the numbers may say so, different players may respond differently to playing part time. Also the relationship of the team on defense may be affected (timing of double plays, who’s where while the play happens), etc, are all factors that a manager needs to consider.
Personally, I play Barmes everyday at 2nd. Let Q get a few AB’s if need. No more Stewart at 2nd. I’d be ok with a straight platoon at 3rd as Atkins needs more playing time, and Stewart hasn’t exactly run away with the position. BUT Helton does seem to me to be tireing a little and a few more off days against lefties would help. So Helton or Stewart will have to play against lefties…as Atkins can’t play 2 positions at once.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Aug 5, 2009 12:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's get Hawpe
some playing time a 1B against lefties :)
by TripleT-Rox on Aug 5, 2009 12:38 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Link on thread for Hawpe playing 1B
Here’s a link to a previous thread on Hawpe playing 1B against lefties. Personally I think it should be considered :)
http://www.purplerow.com/2009/7/16/951545/todd-helton-splits-and-iso
by amoeba on Aug 5, 2009 1:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Barmes at 2B, sure, that's what I said at the end of the article
But we’re not talking platoons like “well, this guy is marginally better v LHP than RHP, let’s only start him v LHP”, these are.200-.300 point OPS swings. The point where the worse side of the platoon is actually detrimental to the lineup.
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 5, 2009 1:02 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not my issue
the issue is the AMOUNT of platoons for the team. There is something to be said about line up consistency.
If you have
Spilly and Smith platooning in LF
Cargo and Fowler in CF
Atkins and Stewart at 3b
and Atkins and Helton at 1b
That’s a lot of platoons. Usually I see team continuity break down around the 3rd platoon…usually 2 is the most, that usually work.
Start Seth Smith! Free Eric Young Jr.!
by Redhawk on Aug 5, 2009 1:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
damn good point
one of the things Tracy has done to help the Rox is lineup consistency – Major league players thrive on knowing what they will be doing, what is expected of them.
by RockyMtnCat on Aug 5, 2009 1:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
not really arguing
but why can’t that philosophy apply to platooning?
I’m not a big fan of wild swinging lineup changes, but at the same time no sport simply puts its same players out and runs the same system every single game. Football, hoops, soccer, etc, the best teams always seek to exploit matchup disadvantages and mold their systems to the specific talents of their players. I don’t see why baseball should be different. I don’t think baseball is different (see, eg, recent hulaballoo about getting a LOOGY, etc).
Thus, if Player X flatly can’t hit lefties anywhere near as good as Player Y, I doubt the purported advantage of “consistency” will outweigh the advantage of having the player with the superior skill set.
But this is all just thinking out loud. Obviously, the best answer is just get dudes who don’t need to be replaced situationally.
by Teekalong on Aug 5, 2009 2:05 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nicely done, RMN!
i especially liked observations 5-8. hilarious/sad/confusing.
i do think barmes will actually improve from here rather than tank, only because i keep thinking, really? can he get worse? nah…
….he won’t, will he?….
by oxmouth on Aug 5, 2009 11:49 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually, you're probably right...
Or at least you very well could be right. RMN’s chart shows his 2009 July to be well below a career norm for that month, and below his average August/September wOBA. I’ve got to say that I disagree completely with the assessment that he can only get worse as moving to the average Aug/Sep wOBA would actually mark an improvement for him.
He could get worse going forward, but I think the safer bet is that he at least mildly improves.
by Rox Girl on Aug 5, 2009 2:13 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't believe it
Is there a proven correlation on how players do in months? I do not see it.
I have a lot I want to write, but I have to work now. Sorry.
by brian8065 on Aug 5, 2009 11:54 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Especially on Barmes and Stewart
not enough consistent AB’s and seasons to measure.
by brainteaser on Aug 5, 2009 12:51 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Play Barmey
just don’t hit him 2nd – that OBP is totally unacceptable for the top of the order.
so who should hit 2nd – hmmmmmmm – damn good question….
by RockyMtnCat on Aug 5, 2009 1:25 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Seth Smith
To break up the lefties, Tulo should hit 4th, Hawpe 5th, CDI 6th, Stewart 7th, Barmes 8th.
IMO, Barmes should play the rest of the year at second, or it should be EY2. No platoons, please at 2nd, though I would like to see Q get a few starts at second this year. Lineup consistency got us here, and it will keep us here. The only platooning that should be happening is CarGo/Fowler in CF and both should hit leadoff when they are in the lineup. I can understand putting Spilly and Atkins in against lefties, but that should be it.
by bballrox4717 on Aug 5, 2009 1:42 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
except
that smith starts against left handers, and that means CarGo is in center – so smith is then hitting lead off. oh well, we seem to be winning somehow…
by RockyMtnCat on Aug 5, 2009 3:43 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Should Counting Rocks be our scoreboard watching thread today?
Astros are beating the Giants and the Mets already beat the Cardinals. If that Houston score holds and the Rockies could pull out a win in Philly tonight, our playoff odds would jump something like 8% on the day.
by Rox Girl on Aug 5, 2009 1:40 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I don’t know what happened, went to lunch seeing the Astros up by 3. Came back, and wow.
Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile
by frightenedinmate#2 on Aug 5, 2009 1:59 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eli Whiteside hit a grand slam.
Among other Giants stuff. I hope this is just a case of matching up well with the Astros, who they’ve absolutely owned this season, and not going to be typical of what’s to come.
by Rox Girl on Aug 5, 2009 2:03 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh, so long as it wasn't Ryan "the Answer" Garko who hit the slam,
I’ll sleep OK.
Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile
by frightenedinmate#2 on Aug 5, 2009 2:05 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
oooh, never mind.
Garko tripled. Start panicking.
Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile
by frightenedinmate#2 on Aug 5, 2009 2:21 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
partial season wOBA
where does this come from?
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
by FooMan on Aug 5, 2009 2:05 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
If you go to the Rockies team page on FanGraphs,
you can look at split stats by individual months.
by Rox Girl on Aug 5, 2009 2:14 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
ha, I didn't even know that
I went to B-R and just downloaded the monthly data, and then did the wOBA myself.
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 5, 2009 3:19 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, good work!
but it’s good to know there’s a less labor-intensive way to get at it.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
by FooMan on Aug 5, 2009 4:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like spreadsheets :-(
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 5, 2009 4:12 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
No shame there!
I’m glad you’re willing to put in the time and write articles like this.
That Barmes has had one weird career, that’s for sure. And 2 for his last 40, with 2 HR’s, that’s weird. And since his BA peaked at .296 on June 18, he’s at .185 / .235 / .378.
Oh man, Barmes. We’ve been very patient, and have been admiring your defense, but please start hitting better…
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
by FooMan on Aug 5, 2009 4:27 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
How come that's not surprising?
field session is almost over and I don’t want to see a spread sheet for two weeks
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
by jrockies on Aug 5, 2009 10:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now, the Redhawk’s among us will tell you that…
You are immortal.
Order a Purple Row t-shirt and donate to charity at:
Purple Row Cares
by Charlie77 on Aug 5, 2009 9:57 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

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