Thursday Rockpile: Some days you get the bear, and some days the Phillies bust out their bats and beat your nature loving self senseless.
See, there's our problem. All this time spent hunting bears when the Rockies should be trying to beat the Phillies. Anyhow.., the day yesterday couldn't have gone any more perfectly... for the Giants.
Yorvit Torrealba's harrowing experience of having his son kidnapped and held for ransom earlier this year gets more attention from Jim Armstrong.
Clint Barmes' slump is reaching epic proportions, but Jim Tracy still has his back. Get your act together Clint, the mob out with pitchforks is getting harder to fend off.
Erik Manning at FanGraphs has a quick look at the Rox resurgence.
This Joe Posnanski guy, writes for SI right now and he seems to have all the mainstream national media tricks down already:
most of the low-payroll teams -- say teams with payrolls of less than $75 million -- have come to the conclusion that they are NOT going to win now. The one thing they have is time. And so, they're trading time.
17. Milwaukee Brewers $79,857,502 $3,194,300
18. Colorado Rockies $75,201,000 $2,785,222
------------------SMALL PAYROLL BOUNDARY-----------------------
19. Arizona Diamondbacks $73,571,667 $2,724,877
20. Cincinnati Reds $70,968,500 $2,957,021
21. Kansas City Royals $70,908,333 $2,727,244
So do you see the trouble with his arbitrary definition? Because the Rockies are competing for a playoff spot this season, he has to exclude them from his small payroll definition, but the team is closer in salary to teams he does include than to the teams that really have the financial wherewithal to spend freely. Now why would Posnanski do this? so he can make the following statement:
Point is, things are fuzzy right now for most of the small-market teams. Florida is the only one that seems to have a working plan. The Marlins have the lowest payroll in baseball but they are playing pretty well. They got Hanley Ramirez in a trade, drafted Dan Uggla as a Rule 5 pick, drafted Josh Johnson in the fourth round and, even beyond Johnson, have a very young and talented starting rotation that could at some point emerge.
First of all, the Marlins don't even have the best working plan of small-market teams in their own state. I have no idea why he conveniently left the Rays out of his article completely since the defending AL champs actually fall within his convenient scale, but excluding the Rockies and Brewers allows him to make his final conclusion that the Marlins model of a single brief window of opportunity every six seasons before breaking the team down and going through the process again is best.
Every team, every GM, has a plan. Those that seem to be working:
$$$
New York Yankees - currently relying almost exclusively on free agency for impact pitchers and position players, but try to develop star level talent on their own if possible.
Boston Red Sox - trade away internally developed depth for impact players too expensive for small market teams to keep. They do keep quite a bit of impact talent as it arises. Outspend most teams on development and the draft to keep this pipeline flowing. Not as big on free agency as you would think.
Los Angeles Angels - internally develop most of their pitching and role players, typically rely on free agency for impact position players. Can spend big on both the draft and internationally.
Los Angeles Dodgers - Develop impact talent, both pitching and position players internally by spending a lot on the draft (not so much in international free agency) and their player development system. Fill holes mostly via free agency.
Chicago Cubs - mostly follow the Yankees model, but develop more of their own pitching internally.
Philadelphia Phillies - Developed their own superstar core, and hope to continue this process with current farm talent. Trade away other minor league depth for impact pitching. Spend some on free agency to fill gaps.
$$ -
St. Louis Cardinals - Don't spend a lot on role players that you can develop yourself. Have a pitching coach that can fix almost anybody. Get Albert Pujols and build around him.
San Francisco Giants - Develop Cy Young level pitching internally and wait for other prospects to come up to complement them while throwing away money on free agents that don't really amount to much.
Detroit Tigers - Their current salary level says they should be in the $$$ level, but the market they play in suggests they go here. Seem to follow the Angels model of developing as much of their pitching as they can in house and get impact position players via free agency.
Chicago White Sox - I have no idea what the actual plan is, but it seems to be working in a weak division.
Texas Rangers - It's taken them awhile, but I think they've finally latched onto something in a hybrid version of the Marlins model of trading MLB talent for impact farm depth while also developing their own and adding some talent through free agency. This team could be really dangerous with new ownership.
$ -
Milwaukee - develop impact players internally and then outspend your small market peers in attempting to fill the holes. Trade off minor league talent for elite players when you are close to a playoff spot but otherwise stay conservative.
Colorado - A lot of international investment and no significant trading of internally developed talent makes the team very self reliant. Spend heavily on secondary markets and players, but avoid those that buyers have little leverage with to fill holes.
Tampa Bay - Acquire overlooked players to supplement elite talent developed internally. Try to sell high on prospects that don't fit before they lose their luster.
Florida Marlins - Acquire plenty of young cheap impact talent that develops together to fit into a small peak window of opportunity, blow it up, do it again.
Money does seem to make it more likely that whatever plan a GM has will be a working one, but there are some smaller revenue teams that are doing alright for themselves.
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RG, with the greatest of respect
Making arbitrary distinctions and virtual lines in the sand is at the root of almost every baseball stat and definition we use, with loving regularity, on this site. Sometimes I forget the season didn’t start on June 4th, for example.
I have my own issues with Mr Posnanski, but the payroll figures contained a handily round figure in £75m and prevented him from having to insert the most awkward of rhetorical botches “with the exception of the Brewers and Rockies” every other sentence.
The Rays thing is bizarre, I’ll grant you.
I know, I don't care about the arbitrary line in the sand
as much as I care that the overall premise that the Marlins have the only small market model that works is completely wrong.
Precisely
as the Dbacks, the Twins, the Rays, and the A’s haven’t sniffed the playoffs in the past decade.
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 6, 2009 9:30 AM MDT up reply actions
surely
That credit should only be given to the Yankees, tigers, mets, padres and the like whose collapses with high budget high talent teams allowed the teams you mention to “luck” into the playoffs. ;-p while their success wasn’t as sustained, don’t forget Cleveland in 07
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 6, 2009 9:59 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Poz blew it, but I'd write him
I think he’s responds, he’s not just a MSM blowhard. He does come up with some head scratchers (e.g.., his top 100 players article), but he does put a lot of thought into other issues. He hardly seems ossified, unlike a lot of other writers in his position.
I’d root around his blog and find an email address or place to put a comment, and I’d do it. You can make a good case, and chances are he’d read it at some point. Teachable moment and all that. I think I’ll do the same.
Now that he’s a Sr writer at SI, there’s a huge chance to get some better baseball writing. He can do better.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
I think the overarching point he was making
that pretty much every FO understands things like OBP whereas maybe they didn’t when Moneyball was written, is still valid. It seems to me like the idiot former players club of GM’s continues to steadily shrink, and pretty much everyone pays attention to more advanced stats.
What's worst is that the general populace
looks at the current state of the Athletics and says “yeah sabermetrics really worked”
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 6, 2009 9:39 AM MDT up reply actions
But I think he misses the point that because one inefficiency closes,
Doesn’t mean there aren’t more out there. The Rockies have been exploiting one for years in Latin America by signing 17 and 18 year old players that got overlooked as 16 year olds. I can guarantee you that now that this practice has gotten more exposure from Baseball America that their ability to continue to get a leg up on opponents this way will also become limited.
It’s how cyclical markets work. Some small timer finds a way to make a lot of money or value in sectors that the big money is missing, the big money catches wind of it and pours their resources there to make the next biggest chunk of money and the other small timers go that direction at the end and find that the profits to be had have already mostly disappeared. The cycle then starts again somewhere else. The small market teams that are able to recognize this and adapt the quickest will have the longest runs of success.
?
Who is the idiot former players’ club of GMs? Kenny Williams and Billy Beane are both former players, and have had success as GMs, yet Jim Bowden, Brian Sabean, and Ned Colletti never played professional baseball and have not had similar sustained success.
GMs have a method that they apply regardless of economic size. Epstien and Zdurineck work with significant payrolls and employ extensive statistics departments. The Mets have the second highest payroll, and there appears to be little statistical research going into their teams. The Reds are in the bottom 40% of team salaries, and they just traded a talented, young third baseman plus two decent prospects for Scott Rolen. Small market teams aren’t beholden to manage one way, and neither are big market teams.
Regardless of true market or “market size by payroll” all teams should complement scouting employ statistical researches, and should understand even things beyond basics like OBA. How about understanding wOBA and UZR/150? I haven’t taken math since freshman year of college and I get it. Yesterday afternoon, the Braves announcers were talking about UZR in relation to Renteria’s and Escobar’s worth. There’s not one way of
The notion of big vs. small market is antiquated. The Marlins play in a plenty-big “market”: Miami and all of southern Florida. The Giants play in San Francisco. Washington isn’t a small market, and has a wealthy owner, but has the 4th lowest payroll. The Twins play in a small market, but have the wealthiest owner in sports.
Look at “small market” payroll now versus five years ago. Small market is no longer $30MM – 50MM. It’s $60MM – 70MM (the Marlins, Padres & Pirates are outliers). There is no more "market (in the economic, revenue-base sense) in big market and small market. The only demarcation is what owners/front office management are willing to spend on team payroll.
There’s a pretty simple way to draw an illustrative line between big and small market: find the biggest gap between teams’ payroll (below $100MM). There’s nothing scientific, but the biggest gap is $14MM (between the White Sox at 96MM and the Giants at 82MM). The line would be somewhere between those two teams. Everything under that, regardless of their true market is “small market.”
Why not use revenue?
At least as part of the consideration?
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Well, yes
That does make sense. I was just trying to point out the absence of meaning of the word “market” in small or big market. It makes sense to judge by revenue, because if your team isn’t generating revenue you are likely to be following a small market team.
However, the correlation between revenue and market size is disrupted by the whims of front offices and owners.
whims of fo's and owners
probably affects payroll even more than revenue though, wouldn’t you say?
But you’re right about the difficulty in judging markets, when the actions of these guys can do a lot to improve/kill markets.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Market size definition
Market size does not refer directly to population base.
It refers to the number of buyers and sellers in a market.
In regards to major league baseball there are cities like Miami and Phoenix that have population bases that are disproportionate to the actual market size.
Common reasons for such gaps include a lack of branding power and regional influence (expansion franchises and relocated franchises), geographical factors (beaches and other abundant outdoor recreational activities) and cultural factors (cities like Atlanta do a poor job of supporting sports in general).
Tampa Bay could have a population of 50 million people and the market size for the Rays would still almost surely trail that of the Yankees and Red Sox.
Are the pitchforks already sticking out of Barmes's back?
I think rationally, it’s difficult to pull him completely. So I see what Tracy’s doing there. You normally assume a player will come out a slump. Players all slump, but they come out of it. And until you pull the plug, you then need to support him publicly.
Many have mentioned the 2 spot, and I can agree there, at least pull him out of the 2 spot. The idea that that’s the only place he can hit sounds like superstitious thinking to me.
But man, his slump is getting pretty deep. 0 for his last 19, 2 for his last 46, after having put up low avg and obp for about a month before that.
Barmes must have some of Q and CarGon’s magic pixie dust—since Barmes’s avg peaked at .296 on June 18, the Rockies have gone 26-15 (and appear to be 26-12 in his starts). During the span, Barmes slash line is: .182 / .231 / .371
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Rockies signed Paul McAnulty as a free agent...
Because of that old baseball axiom that you can never have enough benchworthy left fielders…
Anyway, it’s on the minor league transaction page, but probably not worthy of more than a comment here.
Sounds like Mike Timlin got the callup
Aging veteran battle
MATT HERGES vs MIKE TIMLIN
ROUND 1 – FIGHT
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 6, 2009 10:43 AM MDT up reply actions
Who is Kurt Birkins?
LHP moved from Drillers to Sky Sox – I don’t even recognise the name! What did he do to merit promotion?
He was only in AA to rehab from an injury
He was in AAA all year until he got hurt in early July. Had 12 straight scoreless relief appearances beforehand in the Springs too. He’s 28, so he’s pretty much organizational filler
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 6, 2009 12:01 PM MDT up reply actions
Could he be another Matt Daley?
I’m always seduced by the story of the long-term club guy who never quite made it who gets a shot at the bigs…
He's not a long term club guy though
This is his first year with the organization. He actually made it to the bigs with Tampa nd Baltimore each of the last three years, not earning much success with either club. His minor league stats were not nearly as dominant as Daley, and we’ve already utilized three other options before him as LH reliever – different callup (Flores), convert a starter (Morales) and trade (Beimel). Birkins is on the periphery in case the bullpen goeson the DL with jock itch or something
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 7, 2009 8:54 AM MDT up reply actions


































