Sunday Rockpile: Does money buy you playoffs? Yes, usually, but that doesn't mean you can't also get it for cheap.

by Rox Girl on Aug 9, 2009 8:50 AM MDT in Rockpile

Renck: Payoffs come in the playoffs

Troy Renck takes up the big payroll argument touched on by others around the league. To me, this remains a little ridiculous to evern discuss. Two seasons ago everybody was writing about how small market teams like Arizona, Colorado and Cleveland were bursting the big players' bubbles, but now we're back to the OHNOEZ WEZE DOOMD sort of stories. In the long run and in the big picture, high payroll teams will go to the playoffs more than small payroll teams. This is a sort of statistical inevitability. Really, if the Yankees are charging as much as they are and driving off their root fans to become a boutique baseball experience for rich snobs, than they better be going to the playoffs frequently if they expect that business model to work.

The fact of the matter is, though, playoffs or not, they're ripping their fans off pretty badly compared to the Angels or even the Red Sox, as JinAZ explores in this fascinating study at Beyond the Boxscore, where he even ranks a team's value given to fans as a function of wins and beer prices. Really, this is the sort of thing that Sabermetricians need to be spending more time on.

Smart, well run small payroll teams like Tampa Bay or Minnesota will compete for the playoffs more than poorly run small payroll teams like Kansas City. For now, as Renck alludes, Rockies fans should be grateful that their team seems to be more in the former category. The big difference, however is that poorly run high payroll teams, like the Mets or Astros, for instance, can still compete for the playoffs at least half the time. So when you're in a part of the cycle where many of the better run small payroll teams like the A's, Indians and Twins are rebuilding or in off years, the big teams will be there to fill the void. It's the way baseball has always worked. My guess is that 2010 sees a shift back to the little guys as the Phillies go into decline and the Mets try to unwind themselves from their mess, Florida or Atlanta could take advantage. The Rays and Twins will probably be resurgent in the AL and the Rockies and D-backs will still be dangerous in the NL.

Other links from the Denver Post:

Dave Krieger looks about the worry around Jason Marquis falling off from his stellar first half. It's probably going to happen, at least a little bit just because Marquis had some pretty solid luck before the break, but keep in mind that the Rockies are already benefitting by having another once unlucky pitcher (Jorge De La Rosa) turn around from an awful start so there's some evening out.

In the meantime, however, Marquis has a 3.67 ERA after the All-Star break so far, compared to a 3.65 ERA before. Really the only major difference in pre and post All-Star break Marquis has been that he's allowing twice as many doubles as he did before the break. It's not a good sign, as it indicates more pitches are getting elevated, but it's not a death knell either and could very well be correctable.

Shooting the Bull(pen):

Not so crazy flatlander:

Rockies are likely wild card - STLtoday.com

Colorado will finish the season with 33 of its final 54 games at Coors Field.

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Rockies CANNOT afford to lose this series

It is absolutely essential they split or win it. I mean, I don’t know if numerically that’s true, but I feel like they could get in a very sticky spot if they lose 3 out of 4. And even with Wells vs. Hammel today, there can’t be any excuses…last night’s game was perfectly winnable and they just didn’t come through.

by Squeaky on Aug 9, 2009 9:37 AM MDT reply actions

Jason Marquis 2nd Half Collapse Watch

Forgot to update this last time.

1st half: 11-5 3.65 ERA 6.85 IP/GS 2.9 BB/9 4.2 K/9 0.66 HR/9

2nd half: 1-2 3.67 ERA 6.75 IP/GS 2.7 BB/9 4.7 K/9 0.67 HR/9

Anytime a player is playing above his established performance levels, you’d expect them to drop back a little. It doesn’t always happen, it just usually does. It hasn’t really happened yet with Marquis.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Aug 9, 2009 10:48 AM MDT reply actions

Post July 31 trades

This Baseball Prospectus article is a good example of why I kept asking so many questions in a game thread the other day about post July 31 trades.

If a player must completely clear waivers in order to be traded in any circumstance, then there’s a lot of confusion out there for some reason (such as a recent rules change). There’s a lot of us who have the understanding that it is also possible to trade a claimed player to the team awarded the waiver claim, as the BPro article implies.

It’s a bit of trivia, really, as such trades are rarely made, and when they are, we’re shielded from the behind the scenes maneuvering, such as what the waiver situation was. But this is baseball. Eventually, it doesn’t matter if it it’s “merely” trivia. One still desires to know.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Aug 9, 2009 11:00 AM MDT reply actions

Good news everyone

I figured out that if Ian Stewart had a Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) of .324 (which isn’t crazy considering his power and modest speed) rather than the .250 he’s sporting this year, his batting average would be around .280.

How would we feel about a third baseman on pace for 30~ homers with a .280 average and one who provides above average defense at the hot corner?

If this guy gets lucky next season (or just less unlucky) and trims his strikeout rate from 27% to somewhere maybe closer to 23% (which is about what he put up in the minors), we’ll have a whole lot of awesome going on on the left side of our infield.

The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.

by Resolution on Aug 9, 2009 11:03 AM MDT reply actions

didn't someone post something a few days ago that .280 was pretty much the ceiling of where Stewie reached in the minors

I know his BABIP has been far below what would be expected this year, but his line drive rate is also down partially offsetting this. I think with his fly ball tendencies a .324 BABIP would be a bit of a stretch for him, certainly .300-.310 is realistic though.

by djmbluemoon on Aug 9, 2009 11:11 AM MDT up reply actions

You're right

I think a .300-.310 BABIP puts him in the .270 batting average range. For whatever reason though, I just find a .280 average so much sexier.

I think if he increases his LD rate and trims his k-rate, he might be able to produce .280 seasons somewhere down the line. I also feel like a 13% line drive rate is unlikely given his ability.

Regardless, I’d still be happy with a 3B who puts up a .270/.360/.490 line with above average D.

by Resolution on Aug 9, 2009 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions

Cook

is going to miss his next start…urgh….Fogg or Chacin will take his place tuesday

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

by TuLoRocks2008 on Aug 9, 2009 11:58 AM MDT reply actions

Link?

"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK

by jrockies on Aug 9, 2009 12:04 PM MDT up reply actions