Magic Number Watch

by GoRoxGo on Oct 1, 2009 7:55 AM MDT Comment 34 comments

After last night's exciting win, the Rockies lead in the WIld Card race by 5 1/2 games. For the first time in Rockies history, we can start talking about "magic numbers". We never could do that in 1995 or in 2007, our other two playoff years, because we were never the frontrunner for the playoff spot and earned them in our final regular season games. Now we are a frontrunner, for the Wild Card spot even if not the division (yet). So, let's examine our current magic number situation after the jump....

As of the morning of September 12th, the Rockies' official magic number is 16 for clinching the Wild Card playoff spot. This means that any combination of 16 Rockies wins or Giant losses will guarantee us a spot in the playoffs.

The Rockies have 20 games remaining, and the Giants have 21. Say the Rockies go 10-10. That means that the Giants would have to avoid losing 6 games or else they will be eliminated and the Rockies clinch a spot in the playoffs. So, the Giants would have to go 16-5 just to tie the Rockies and force a play-in game (assuming the Rockies don't overtake the Dodgers in the meantime).

If the Rockies go a more reasonable 12-8, then the Giants must go 18-3 or the Rox are in the playoffs. Even if the Rockies swoon and go just 5-15 in their final 20, the Giants would have to go 11-10 to tie the Rox, or 12-9 to overtake them for the Wild Card.

In other words, we are sitting pretty! It's not over by any means. As the Rockies themselves proved in 2007, winning out down the stretch can make up for a lot of lost ground. I don't think the Giants have what it takes to go anything close to 18-3, but my bet is that is almost what it will take for the G-men to overtake our Rox.

The fun thing about the magic number watch is that we get to count down the magic number until we clinch a spot. Yes, it would be more fun to overtake the Dodgers and win the NL West. But the point is to get to Rockober, and so the only thing that matters now is the number 16.........and counting.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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you rang?

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: Bludgeoning Baseballs
Chris Iannetta Status: OH MY GOD GET SOME HITS YOU'RE MAKING ME LOOK LIKE AN ASS

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 12, 2009 9:26 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

LOL

I was actually thinking of you when I wrote the subject of this diary!

With any luck, the “Rockies_Magic_Number” will be 14 at the end of this evening.

by GoRoxGo on Sep 12, 2009 9:43 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

The blog I wrote on originally was called Rockies Magic Number

based on this premise entirely.

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: Bludgeoning Baseballs
Chris Iannetta Status: OH MY GOD GET SOME HITS YOU'RE MAKING ME LOOK LIKE AN ASS

Check out the most recent MLB Transactions on MLB Daily Dish

by Andrew Martin on Sep 13, 2009 12:11 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

the giants series will be huge

because any rockies win will lower the magic number by 2 correct?

by purplesocks on Sep 12, 2009 10:37 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Correct...

But as of now, it’s at 15……..with both the Marlins and Giants now.

by GoRoxGo on Sep 12, 2009 11:15 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

We're stuck at 15...

for a couple of days now. Maybe this countdown started too soon?

by GoRoxGo on Sep 14, 2009 11:29 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

13

by the skin of our teeth. Thank you Rafi and DLR! And Stew and Tulo HRs were huge.

by GoRoxGo on Sep 16, 2009 11:29 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

It took three days....

but we are now at 11. With only 4 road games left, it’s looking better and better.

by GoRoxGo on Sep 19, 2009 9:22 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

11!

thanks to Ubaldo outdueling Haren, and Lincecum not getting it done in LA. Oh, and as a bonus, pursuers Atlanta and Florida lost also.

by GoRoxGo on Sep 20, 2009 5:01 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, I meant 9!!

by GoRoxGo on Sep 20, 2009 5:02 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sweet

9 and counting. Keep the wins coming guys.

Side note: This needs more recs to keep up for the rest of the season.

"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK

by jrockies on Sep 20, 2009 11:01 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs

LUCKY 7!

With our barely hanging on in the 9th inning to win 11-10, and Arizona squeeking by also in the 9th inning to win 10-8, we knock 2 more off the magic number.

With 11 games left, all we have to do is go 7-4 and it won’t matter what the teams behind us do.

by GoRoxGo on Sep 22, 2009 10:57 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

-2

one of the few times a minus is a good thing on this site

"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK

by jrockies on Sep 23, 2009 1:21 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

We are stuck at 7....

but have a new pursuer, the Braves.

The Giants have dropped into a 3rd place tie with Florida in the WC race, so our magic number is 6 against them and Florida.

by GoRoxGo on Sep 24, 2009 11:04 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

6-4-4.....

to eliminate the Braves-Giants-Marlins…….

Need I say more?

by GoRoxGo on Sep 25, 2009 10:21 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

NOT YET

Keep going guys keep going

"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK

by jrockies on Sep 25, 2009 10:43 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

High 5!

I was at this game, and when Barmes made that miracle double-play catch and throw, complete strangers were high-fiving each other as our magic number shrinks to 5!

by GoRoxGo on Sep 27, 2009 6:32 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs