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Rockies Review: They just saved the good part of the road trip for the Midgets, right?

It's been an up-and-down sort of week. It began with an eight-game winning streak that included a pair of dramatic comebacks (Seth Smith's two-run walkoff single against the Reds, Yorvit Torrealba's three-run ninth-inning double against the Padres) but all in all, it ended with something of a sour taste, as Franklin Morales performed the ignominious feat of a walk-off walk in dropping the second game of the series to the Friars. That was followed up today by an all-around failure, resulting in a 7-3 loss. Coupled with the Giants finally figuring out how to beat the Dodgers, it left us 3 back in the division and 4.5 up in the wild card. While technically that is a sweep-proof lead (even if the Giants do, please god no, what they did to us last time, we'll still be up 1.5) let us hope that it does not come to that. While we've already established that nothing good will come easily, I don't particularly want to let the Giants come creeping back. We had them on the ropes at 5.5 games out. We still do hold the 4.5 game edge, and with only 18 games to play, the math becomes inexorable at some point. That doesn't mean we need to start doing anything... stupid.

Join me after the jump for a look at some of the things we need to quit doing as we head to San Fran for a series that can either settle the issue fairly decisively, or make it juuuuuust a wee bit too interesting once again.

Star-divide

Numero uno area of concern: The offense. We scored an average of 4 runs a game at home against the Reds, we scored an average of 3 runs a game on the road against the Padres (admittedly in the giant sucking black hole known as Petco Park) and even our miracle man, Seth Smith, appears to be looking mortal after a 1-for-9 showing in his last two games. Bad at-bats and stranded baserunners abounded today, whether it was two straight backwards K's and a groundout with two men on, the side striking out in the seventh, or a second-pitch double play to end the eighth inning with the bases loaded. Aside from the 7 runs scored by the Friars today, they weren't looking too offensively minded either, scoring 4 runs in the two previous games. I know it's Petco and all that, but seriously, if you're playing the Padres (or anybody, really) and they score 4 runs in two games, you should win both of them. But in the first game, it took the Rox until the ninth to score (albeit in dramatic fashion on Yorvit Torrealba's bases-clearing double) and in the second, it took them until the ninth (again) to tie what had been a 2-1 affair for most of the duration. (Yorvit better look out for Mafia men sent after him by Heath Bell, as he caused Bell to blow his first two saves all year at Petco. Back to back to boot). And then they promptly lost in the tenth when an intentional walk backfired (who is surprised?) as Frankie Morales couldn't find the strike zone and walked in the winning run.

Of course, things might have been different if they weren't playing in Petco and Tulowitzki would have had an eighth-inning homer (his second of the game) instead of a long flyout that croaked on the track, but obviously that's part of the situation and has to be taken into account. This was followed today with the aforementioned generally bad game, as Jason Marquis struggled with his command and the offense failed to report. This isn't particularly the way I want to go into our final head-to-head matchup with SF, again in their place rather than ours. While the Phonebooth may not be in the same level of boneyard as Petco, it's not overly friendly to hitters either. And we start off with a tough draw, Jason Hammel against the unfortunately recovered Freak. (Not that I'm wishing injury on Tiny Tim, I just wish he could have sat out another, oh, 3 games or so. Maybe he'll be somewhat rusty from the time off). This is followed, wouldn't you know it, by the oh-so-fun combination of Zito and Cain. As I'm sure I don't need to remind you, that combination added up to a sweep for SF last time, also as we were coming off a series loss against an NL West opponent, also after an exciting last-minute win in the first game of that series. Zito's ERA against us this year is 0.42, and the Giants have won 3 of Cain's 4 starts against the Purple. The last time Lincecum faced us in SF, he threw eight four-hit, shutout innings.

So, I'd say we need to find the offense. Pronto.

Welp.

This is not to advise anyone to panic, as after all we'll still have the numeric advantage if the worst should come to pass, but allowing your closest competitor for a playoff spot to sweep you twice in less than a month won't engender any warm fuzzies in me (or anyone, I imagine). The Giants are in the most crucial stretch of their season -- they looked pretty out of it after the Spilly grand slam, too, and look how that turned out -- and don't think they don't know it. If they can win several games in a row against us, it's back to the wire, and they can still have a chance to pull off a fairly major upset. Not that I necessarily think this will happen, but we do have three games against the Dbacks at Chase, where they always play us tough, before returning home to face the Pads, the Central-leading Cards, and the prone-to-stupid-celebrations Brewers, who can't pitch all that well but certainly have plenty of offensive firepower. Of course, we swept both those clubs back in June, but it's September now, and the last fevered hours are upon us, gents (and ladies). We are indeed privileged to be fans of a ballclub that's been playing so well, that's still seriously in the playoff discussion, considering a relatively set field elsewhere (in my humble opinion, the AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, and NL Central races are more or less wrapped up) but the only thing we needed to do last time we went into San Fran was to avoid a sweep. Guess what happened.

Now, I won't say that the sky is falling, because it's clearly not. We still control our own destiny, and once they're done with us, the Giants go to LA to play the Dodgers again, who creamed them resoundingly in the first two games of their just-concluded series. If you can run enough time off the clock, as Brandon Stokely demonstrated today, you make it just that much harder for the math to work out. Which is why, if it comes down to it, I'll be rooting for the Dodgers over the Giants. Yes, I want that first NL West title like you wouldn't believe, and man oh man do I want the Dodgers to complete a '64 Phillies (or 07/08 Mets)-esque eleventh-hour meltdown. But I also just want to get into the postseason however the hell it comes. If that means wild card, so be it. I seem to recall we went to the Series as the wild card just a few years ago. And also that the last NL team to go to the Series and be swept in 4 by the Red Sox (the '04 Cards) showed up two years later and won the damn banana (the '06 Cards). So if you believe in the numerology...

What other issues are there? The zillions and zillions of baserunning blunders, for a start, need to disappear. Frankie Mo needs to not be rattled, as he appeared to be on Saturday night, and go back to the guy who's making Huston Street's absence palatable. The offense. I think I may have mentioned that...

Am I scared? Yeah, maybe a little. We have the gruesome example of last time hanging over our head like the sword of Damocles, the Giants are desperate, and we're facing one of the top rotations in the NL. But there's also the fact that the Rockies are the overall better ballclub, still hold the cards, have been playing like they really want it, and can salt away their spot in the Elite Eight with just a win, or even two, in the latest round of the Derby-by-the-Bay. Join us on Monday at 10:15 ET/8:15 MT, for the first round of "Oh Gawd This Is Gonna Kill Me, I Swear."

That may be so. But remember, what doesn't kill you, will make you stronger.

Go Rockies!

Poll
San Francisco...
is going to be very very good to us. As we have been shown, karma is a powerful force, and it owes us three wins against the three-headed monster.
16 votes
is gonna be... okay... I guess? Just tell me we still have a lead, right? 4.5 games? That's good...
60 votes
is going to be a problem. A serious problem. But we'll snatch one, at least.
73 votes
Oh god. Lincecum/Zito/Cain AGAIN? Well, in that case, can they at least put in Valdez and Howry?
37 votes
I don't know what it'll be, I'm covering my eyes.
30 votes

216 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 29 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I just want to make the playoffs

The division would be nice, but a second postseason appearance for the New Rockies™ would do a lot to dissuade the lingering “fluke” stigma that has been branded upon us.

There will still be opponents who find themselves on the leading edge of new and unique baseball analysis who will still use that “fluke” accusation, citing our 11-game winning streak earlier this season after Tracy took the reins, and our most recent 8-game winning streak. Clearly not a real team.

Because really, how sustainable is 61-30 play since June 4 when we started being good again? Nobody plays that kind of ball, it’s absurd. Right?

I’d like to cite another team that’s played 60-30 ball since the same point in time. A team which nobody has trouble giving full credit to, despite the fact that they’re probably playing unsustainable ball over that stretch as well.

The Yankees.

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 13, 2009 7:41 PM MDT reply actions  

Silly boy

The Yankees play under a completely different set of rules as the Rockies. Of course they get different treatment. Wait…that should make the Rockies’ mark over that time MORE impressive shouldn’t it? Hmm…

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 13, 2009 8:04 PM MDT up reply actions  

no the NL is a worse league and therefore we're like a .500 club in the AL and we're beating up on worse teams, pound for pound

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 13, 2009 8:12 PM MDT up reply actions  

That's true in part, I'll admit

though the Rockies’ interleague record recently suggest we’d thrive there.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 13, 2009 10:24 PM MDT up reply actions  

As much as I despise the Designated Hitter...

I have to admit that if the Rockies played in the AL and had a DH in their lineup everyday, they’d probably have 90 wins already.

"Admirably obsessive." - Uni Watch, March 24th, 2009
NA34 | HK | RMN

by oo_nrb on Sep 14, 2009 2:07 AM MDT up reply actions  

Credit to the Yankees because credit is due

Do you suppose it’s possible the Yankees receive credit because, their overall franchise winning pct is better than any single completed season in Rockies history? Or, if we only care about recent history, that they’re averaging about 96 wins a year in this decade?

The Rockies will shake their fluke rep when they win more consistently. Making the playoffs this year will go a long way towards accomplishing this. Those of you who look for slights will still find them, though.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Sep 14, 2009 9:56 AM MDT up reply actions  

we'll never get the coverage the Yankees do.

Fact.

The Reds will never get the coverage the Yankees do.

Fact.

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 14, 2009 9:58 AM MDT up reply actions  

Fact

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: Bludgeoning Baseballs
Chris Iannetta Status: OH MY GOD GET SOME HITS YOU'RE MAKING ME LOOK LIKE AN ASS

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 14, 2009 10:57 AM MDT up reply actions  

To be perfectly honest

I really have no idea what to think right now. We’re struggling to score on a consistent basis, but late inning heroics have salvaged more than a couple of wins in the meantime. It seems like (sometimes) the starting rotation, outside of Ubaldo, looks tired, and I’m still having trouble with Tracy leaving Marquis in the game today when he was obviously gassed. Trying to save the pen, I guess? It’s all a big jumble of emotions/reason right now. So I’m one of the “covering my eyes” voters as we head to SF.

Most of all, I just want to make the playoffs. And I’d like to clinch that spot early enough that our starting pitching gets a little extra rest. I’m concerned about the offense if we do make the playoffs (as BroJB noted in the game wrap), but I also recall that we didn’t hit all that well in the 07 postseason, and still went a pretty fer way. And who knows, once the second season starts, the bats may just ignite. Stranger things have happened.

It's Seth Smith's world. The rest of us just live in it.

by rockhead on Sep 13, 2009 8:40 PM MDT reply actions   1 recs

I think Tracy is burning the rotation

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 13, 2009 8:52 PM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

THIS!!!!!

Tracy burned the Rotation in July and August. He pushed pitchers into the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning on a reutine basis. Mostly to cover up for a very bad bullpen. He’s still doing it…but the pitchers don’t have it in their tanks, cause it was burned out earlier.

by Redhawk on Sep 13, 2009 9:24 PM MDT up reply actions  

You know

I’ve been thinking the same thing, but haven’t said so. This is what is really worrying me down the stretch. I’m afraid he’s going to try and ride the starters too far in the next 2 weeks, and we’ll be left on the outside of the playoffs. Not being a NN here, it’s just something that’s weighing heavily on my mind right now.

It's Seth Smith's world. The rest of us just live in it.

by rockhead on Sep 13, 2009 9:55 PM MDT up reply actions  

The only guy who has pitched bad

Is Marquis. Jimenez, Hammel and DLR have done fine. and Marquis historically does this. He did it against the Mets in his last start from the first pitch. Jorge pitched well, Rogers pitched well after the first. Marquis stunk, and he has inmany of his second half starts. He is probably a 5 inning guy the rest of the season. Tracy may have overworked his staff a little but we would not be here if he hadn’t so….

by Roxfan24 on Sep 14, 2009 8:17 AM MDT up reply actions  

Not necessarily true

in overworking his starters, he’s underworked guys like Betancourt and such – at least not worked them optimally. That’s the biggest mistake, IMO.

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 14, 2009 8:44 AM MDT up reply actions  

Marquis

His 2nd half ERA/runs allowed has now bumped up above his 1st half mark (4.00 to 3.65 in terms of ERA). But his peripherals are still slightly better in the 2nd half than the 1st.

So I don’t think he’s pitched poorly. As for Hammel, wasn’t it about a month ago that people were ready to throw him out of the rotation? Maybe we should place so much weight on the most recent 2-3 starts, last week of AB’s, etc.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Sep 14, 2009 10:05 AM MDT up reply actions  

Anyone wanting to shove Hammel out a month was sorely in error

I’m not basing judgement on the last 2-3 starts, but looking at the season, Hammel has been studly by fifth starter standards. He might even be worth a “5th starter Cy Young”

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 14, 2009 10:27 AM MDT up reply actions  

I love me some Jason Hammel

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 14, 2009 10:57 AM MDT up reply actions  

I hate to say it BUT

the next 3 games set up perfectly for the Giants. They have their best pitchers on the bump against a Rockies offense that has gone into hibernation. Also, the Giants are only 2-4 through 6 games of a 9 game homestand. The have the best home record in the NL, so you know they’re due to bust out of this slump(starting with today’s victory over LA).

If the Rockies were in the same spot as the Giants, playing at home against their most important opponent, after having lost 4 of 6, with the season on the line, then I would expect them come to life and salvage the homestand as well. And you know the Giants have some confidence against a team they swept 2 weeks ago. Furthermore, I’m sure the Giants have a little jump in their step after unexpectedly picking up a game on the Rox today(the Padres giveth and then taketh away).

Frankly, I would be shocked if the Rockies are able to steal even one game in that House of Horrors. The problem is, this time around the Rockies don’t get to return to Coors for a 10 game home stand. They still have 3 more on the road in a difficult place for us(Chase Field) and when they do finally return home they have to face a hot Padres team, the Cardinals, and good hitting Brewers team. Then, of course, conclude the season with 3 in LA(shudder). This race is so far from over it’s not even funny. That makes today’s loss all the more disappointing and frustrating.

It’s make or break time right now. Why the hell can’t the Rockies beat teams in their own division?

by leadbelly on Sep 13, 2009 9:17 PM MDT reply actions  

The giants have the best home record

therefore are gonna bust out of their slump.

the Rockies have the most runs per game in the NL…yet we’re in hibernation?

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 14, 2009 6:54 AM MDT up reply actions  

One win in SF sends the Giants home in October

The Giants looked awful the first two games of the Dodgers series, and while they showed up strong tonight, that doesn’t change the fact that Sanchez and Cain had absolutely no location either night, and we have an injured Lincecum coming our way. Our offense wasn’t terrible: We’re drawing walks and hitting some line drives, also hit a bunch of balls to the track that died because of idiotic PETCO, but they meant nothing because they were all hit to fielders.

I’ll say just this : JUST WIN ONE FREAKING GAME THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND THE WILDCARD IS OVER.

POSITIVE THOUGHTS!

by bballrox4717 on Sep 13, 2009 9:51 PM MDT reply actions  

Pretty much.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 13, 2009 10:25 PM MDT up reply actions  

Considering....

the Rox didn’t do much offensively against Mujica/Stauffer/Richards, I’m more than a little concerned about Lincecum/Zito/Cain. I get the sinking feeling that the Rockies’ K numbers will be astronomical over the next 3 games.

They gotta find a way to get the ball in play. If that means using Quintinilla and Young instead of Barmes and Stewart, sitting Hawpe, bunting for hits, or whatever — let’s do it.

I just can’t stomach more unproductive ABs. Time to try to steal a game or two with small ball.

by BroJB on Sep 13, 2009 10:22 PM MDT reply actions  

The Rockies will score negative runs

And will have wins taken away. We might do so poorly that the league will even take Matzek away.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Sep 14, 2009 10:07 AM MDT up reply actions  

Honestly

The Rockies are just not built to win at Petco Park. We have eight guys in the lineup that can hit the ball out of the park regularly, which is great for Coors Field, but terrible for Petco. To win at Petco you need about seven of EY2 and Dex and one big bopper, which is what the Padres have.

"Good teams win games, horse**** teams have meetings." - Ozzie Guillen

by free7694 on Sep 14, 2009 12:48 AM MDT reply actions  

Looking

at the record you could say the Rockies are not built to win in SF either. Considering who the Rockies faced in San Diego and the lack of contact I’m not blaming Petco where they have a winning record since the stadium opened.

by DieHardRox on Sep 14, 2009 8:00 AM MDT up reply actions  

There were at least 4 balls

hit Sat that are homers at most, if not all other parks in the NL. Play that game at Coors and I eat tacos on Sunday.

by Roxfan24 on Sep 14, 2009 8:21 AM MDT up reply actions  

Maybe the Petco Park factor is legitimate

I was reading on the Gaslamp Ball, that Pads management conducted a focus group about what needs to be done to improve the fan experience at Petco. One question asked was ‘Should the fences be moved in"? 75% said no. This was a small sample of course being a focus group. Also,during the local Channel4 broadcast this weekend, a text response question was also about moving in the fences. The results were similar, but I don’t know the number of respondents. Even the Padres new owner , Jeff Moorad, is questioning how the park plays. I just thought it was interesting

I know you’re not supposed to play to the park, but I’m wondering if teams’ strategery includes how parks play. It just seems like it should….IMHO.

Even so, the Rox seem to be a pretty well balanced team with small fast players, and big boppers as well. If anything it seems like they would be better suited to play anywhere without a huge park factor really hurting. Our road record this year, would seem to bear that out.

Just pondering this….

Yorvit! GOT LONGEST CATCHER'S HITTING STREAK IN ROX HISTORY ..woot
Hawpeye must get some hits and runs.

by SDcat09 on Sep 14, 2009 8:53 AM MDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure what you mean, but...

Some teams do try to build teams for their home park, though I’m not sure if that’s what you meant. As a visiting team, I think it’s more difficult to play for the park. Not all hitters can change their style that easily.

I think you’re right; I don’t see the Rockies as being that dependent on HR’s. The % of their runs scored of HR (36.0%) is pretty close to the overall NL average (%34.9). I don’t know what the spread is for all the teams, but that doesn’t seem that far off the league average.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Sep 14, 2009 10:29 AM MDT up reply actions  

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