Tim Lincecum dominates as Rockies lose fourth straight game to Giants

by Rox Girl on Sep 14, 2009 11:05 PM MDT in Game Wrap Comment 52 comments

Welp, that didn't go like we wanted it to..,

Tim Lincecum showed that his back was healthy, striking out eleven Rockies on the way to an easy win for the San Francisco Giants. The Rockies, meanwhile, must regroup and figure out a way to beat a team that has had all the answers against them lately as they continue the final three game set against San Francisco on Tuesday.

Jason Hammel gave up four runs, three in the second when the Giants strung together four straight singles to start the inning and later added a sacrifice fly, and the fourth run in the third inning when Bengie Molina hit a solo homerun.

The Giants fifth run scored thanks to a Juan Uribe single off Juan Rincon in the bottom of the eighth. A few hitters and a couple of relievers later in the same inning, Joel Peralta walked pinch hitter Fred Lewis with the bases loaded to score the Giants sixth run and then Eugenio Velez stabbed the Rockies with a grenade by hitting a bases clearing triple to increase the margin to the final score, 9-1.

The Rockies only run scored when Carlos Gonzalez tripled off of Lincecum with two outs in the seventh inning. A ball four pitch to Todd Helton that got past Bengie Molina and rolled to the backstop allowed Gonzalez to score from third.

82 - 63

Games Back: 3.5

Streak: Lost 3

Magic Number (wc): 15

The Giants close to within 3.5 games of the Rockies in the wild card chase with the win.

via www.fangraphs.com

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Better

start hitting the ball or the lead will evaporate quickly. This road trip is setting up to be the converse of the homestand. Also leave Rincon, Flores and Peralta at the hotel tomorrow.

by PinchHitLancePainter on Sep 14, 2009 11:11 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

this was pretty much a losing effort anyhow

these are the trash pitchers. We might as well let them fall on the sword.

Wondering why Fogg hasn’t pitched, however.

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 14, 2009 11:13 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fogg

needs to start Obi Wan’ing the back end of the rotation guys and passing along those Dragonslaying techniques and training…

Or, he’s just being kept around for his killer barista skillz — serving ’em up in the bullpen.

I can't decide whether I'm hungry or just really tired.

by WalkInRight on Sep 14, 2009 11:50 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's unfortunate.

The sky isn’t falling, but is it a little wobblier than before?

"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill

by Bryce on Sep 14, 2009 11:20 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow.

I’m glad I had a lot of work to do tonight.

High hopes for tomorrow, I guess.

by dogs on Sep 14, 2009 11:22 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Can we petition MLB

to move to another division? If you remove the Arizona series, The Rockies have lost 8 of their last 9 against the NL West, including 7 straight against the Dodgers and Giants. Furthermore, that looming D-Backs set at Chase has “trap” written all over it(I hate facing teams that are on long losing streaks, that we previously swept).

Do the Rockies even deserve to be in the playoffs with a losing division record? Do they deserve to be in ahead of a team they can’t beat once in the critical stages of the season and have a losing record against?

Call me Debbie Downer, but tonight reminded me that none of these 3 games seems winable. They pitch lights out and the Rox have forgotten how to score runs. Our only run on a wild pitch after a 2 out triple? You gotta be kidding me!

by leadbelly on Sep 14, 2009 11:48 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Tim Lincecum? Lights out? At home?

PERISH THE THOUGHT

Never mind that Ubaldo Jimenez is pitching tonight, the best guy on OUR staff, and we have a good chance of winning this!

RELAX

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 15, 2009 7:42 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

They need to get more aggressive at the plate

how many first pitch FBs down the middle taken for strike one to be followed by secondary pitches chased. Last week I went to the game with an advance scout of an NL playoff team and old friend from my playing days. He was working on the playoff dossiere.

Some notes from him after several beers and reliving the glory of places like Pompano Beach and Tulsa:

- The book on the Rockies is to get the first pitch over and then they will chase anything close thereafter.

-The majority of the Rockies hitters have been pounded into patience and taking pitches but this strategy is errant on the road away from Coors. Notice the volume of off speed seen tonite. Offspeeds at sea level they break more pronounced especially on the West Coast in the heavy air. Rockies are very vulnerable to off speed after extended homestands, especially in the first two-three games of a series.

-Pitchers will use this tendacy to slow down the offense attack. The only solution is to start expecting and connecting with 1st pitch FBs down the middle.

-Several noted chasers were identified:

Hawpe, Barmes, Stewart, Gonzalez, Ianneta, Fowler, Atkins. Hawpe he was extremely disappointed in. He thought Hawpe had figured it out this year and has now subsequently forgotten the things that worked for him. A interesting tidbit was that he felt Hawpe should hit 3rd behind the runners and get more FBs. He felt Helton could hit anywhere.

-They also mentioned that Smith should be thrown offspeed at all costs as he may be one of the best FB hitters in the game right now. No book on Helton as his zone is keen and he will not chase. GIambi was also given high praise for his approach at the plate and his ability to mesh in a new role. Yorvit should be fed all breaking stuff and is an excellent mistake FB hitter especially up above the hands.

-Another observation of note. He felt the Rocks did Fowler a disservice by bypassing AAA and felt he should have played there all year until August. Reason, not physically strong enough yet.

-The team is very bizarre in that it slumps and explodes together.

-Finally, another interesting observation that RoxGirl will love. Atkins has played the last two years completely out of shape and has cost himself millions in the process. Apparently word in MLB circles is he is lazy beyond reason. Word is his agent is putting him on a strict diet and regiment with a personal trainer after this season which could lure someone to take a flier.

by PinchHitLancePainter on Sep 14, 2009 11:49 PM MDT reply actions 7 recs

hehe Atkins diet

seriously though thanks for the insight it was a good read.

"I've never known a man worth his salt who in the long run, deep down in his heart, didn't appreciate the grind, the discipline... I firmly believe that any man's finest hour - this greatest fulfillment to all he holds dear is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle, victorious." - Vince Lombardi

by nodakroxfan on Sep 14, 2009 11:55 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent post

The scouting and analysis seems to hit the nail on the head. It also would explain why guys like Zito have turned into Cy Young against the Rockies. All those bullet points considered, I would give the Rockies even less chance tomorrow night against Zito’s curve and 0.42 ERA against us.

by leadbelly on Sep 14, 2009 11:58 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting stuff, especially the stuff about the differences in offspeed pitches at Coors and away from Coors.

You wanna know how great baseball is? The greatest basketball player ever left his sport to play baseball.

by Jesse S. on Sep 15, 2009 12:21 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I definitely recommend this comment...

Thanks for sharing the information. A lot of it is stuff we’ve already seen first hand, but it’s good to see the confirmation from people in the know. The Rockies ability to recognize breaking pitches in general seems very weak compared to other playoff teams this year, I really think we’ll have a difficult time getting through the first round, but at least we’ll likely get there. I think the Rockies should rent a field in San Diego and just spend the winter there looking at only offspeed junk.

by Rox Girl on Sep 15, 2009 7:05 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Make a fanpost or something

This is too good to be buried in the comments of a losing game recap thread

by Rock Oax on Sep 15, 2009 9:40 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

can we hit the damn ball

if we can’t win tomorrow with Jimenez vs Zito then we are in trouble…

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

"TuLoRocks2008 had the most comments I've seen in any game thread this year (322)...Can such a feat be eclipsed?" ..... Bring it on!!

by TuLoRocks2008 on Sep 14, 2009 11:57 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Ubalso will probably give us a chance

BUT, our hitters have to give him some help. We’ll probably have one small window in tomorrow’s game to capitalize on. It will be tiny and it will be fleeting, but the Rockies must jump on it when it appears. Even with Ubaldo on the hill, the Giants will hope Zito can “curve” us up long enough for them to scratch out an ugly run or two. Hell Ubaldo only gave up 2 runs in his last start in San Francisco and we still lost 2-0.

by leadbelly on Sep 15, 2009 12:06 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uball can prove he's our ace to me tomorrow

by avoiding the early inning where he gets distracted after two outs and suddenly starts nibbling nibbling nibbling and gives up a solo homer followed by a bloop hit followed by a walk to the pitcher and then whoops! a 2 run double.

No pressure on the guy but I think with the way our offense has been going lately he has to shut them out or give up one run max.

I can't decide whether I'm hungry or just really tired.

by WalkInRight on Sep 15, 2009 12:15 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Several noted chasers were identified:

Hawpe, Barmes, Stewart, Gonzalez, Ianneta, Fowler, Atkins.

Yup, the K gang’s all here. We do have a bunch of Pedro Cerrano’s on our team.

Is the book on Tulo to keep throwing him the rising high heat? He does like the high ones (of course, when he’s on he’ll whack the ball around).

I can't decide whether I'm hungry or just really tired.

by WalkInRight on Sep 15, 2009 12:03 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually he has graded well

his plate strike zone acumen has increased this year. Yes throw him high and tight but it better be with plus stuff.

He is the most improved Rockie this year in the area of approach and application. He stop trying to pull everything and has focused on hands/hips in a quasi rotational methodology.

by PinchHitLancePainter on Sep 15, 2009 12:07 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Why do the Rockies have such a difficult time

hitting breaking stuff from a guy like Zito? I mean, they know what’s coming. Is it because his curve is just so filthy, or because he keeps them off balance with pitch selection, or are our hitters just terribly impatient? Why are these breaking ball pitchers, so vexing to such a solid lineup 1 through 8?

by leadbelly on Sep 15, 2009 12:14 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Several reasons

1. His curve is about a 68 on a scale of 70. That is Carlton level. I faced Carlton in a spring game in the early 80’s in Clearwater (when he was past his prime) and you cannot imagine the downward plane and break on the ball. Looks like it is three feet high and outside and then swoosh, it buckles you at the knees.

2. Lack of movement at home leads to overcompensation on the road. If you followed early Rockie teams this applied for years. See item 4 below.

3. There is a reason that ATT and Petco are what they are. Night games and onshore flow create ideal climatic conditions with sharp off speed.

4. Curve balls are thrown sparingly at Coors due to lack of break. You see more hard off speed at Coors thrown, cuttters, sliders, split finger etc.

by PinchHitLancePainter on Sep 15, 2009 12:21 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also sinkers

and the most effective pitch might be the stright change after successions of hard OS.

by PinchHitLancePainter on Sep 15, 2009 12:26 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, by the sound of things

the Rockies best hope, at sea level, against a guy like Zito, is for Helton to draw a walk then hope Tulo can square one up and deposit it in the seats. Then hope Ubaldo is unhittable.

I can’t believe I’m searching for ways that the Rockies might be able to scratch out a couple of runs in order to beat the most offensively challenged team in the league.

by leadbelly on Sep 15, 2009 12:56 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

amost all of the players in this list (not Tulo)

have big loopy swings (except Barmes who has this own special patented flail swing). The only ones I see who ever really level out their swing or step into a pitch are Atkins and Iannetta 2008. Hawpe was doing well in the first half going to opposite field but has regressed to his all or nothing ways now. They also rarely shorten up their swing so if they make contact it’s just WTP, lazy flyball or a homerun/hits wall for triple. Seriously, Coors Field is made for clubbing other teams to death with singles and doubles but we just can’t seem to do it anymore. Is the onus strictly on the players, team hitting philosphy or some of both?

Plus, after the rox adjust to sea level stuff the singles & doubles approach would carry over better than the Hulk Smash approach we seem to take nowadays.

I can't decide whether I'm hungry or just really tired.

by WalkInRight on Sep 15, 2009 12:33 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry my reply ability

is apparently compromised this evening…:)

I can't decide whether I'm hungry or just really tired.

by WalkInRight on Sep 15, 2009 12:35 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

A PS

the report also discussed several players who appear homer happy. Barmes, Stewart most notable.

I have made my feelings on Stewart clear on many occasions. One of the big generational issues I see is the lack of change management. Back in my days batting avg, RBIs, SBs carried much more weight and you focused on a consistent approach day in and out. If you were getting jammed you adjusted your hand location and your feet placement to compensate. If you were getting sapped away you did the same.

Todays players have less tendancy to adjust their approach. Part of this is latter day coaching philosophy (it will come son stay with the program). Another aspect is SABR folks have introduced a wide range of offensive stats over the last 20 years to calculate player worth and these have made it to the arbritration tables and contract negotiations. The net is that players today succeed at levels and then are change averse when they get to the MLs. As a result many, like Stewart who succeeded in previous levels will not budge. Call it uncoachable, call it know it all mentality or whatever you like but it is a generational trait amongst players today.

by PinchHitLancePainter on Sep 15, 2009 12:48 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very interesting

I’ve never understood Stewart’s swing. There’s just so much going on. Jeff Huson refers to his dipsy uppercut as a “Nike swoosh”. He just seems susceptible to any number of pitches. There’s no question he’s got mad power but it always seems to come off of a big mistake, ala badly missed location.

by leadbelly on Sep 15, 2009 1:04 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is this a problem with the players, or the coaches?

If you have a player with a higher OBP, there’s value there. (If you disagree, let’s drop it, that’s the last thing I want to see debated again around here.) The issue, it seems to me, is how to teach this to players. Not all hitters can draw walks, and trying to get some players to do this can really mess with their hitting. Even teaching plate discipline can be tricky.

Couple other things:

-re. “saber” stats making it into arbitration tables and contract neg:

Have any examples? I’m not sure what you would call a “saber stat” but I’d be surprised if anything new really has made it to that level, unless by new you include OBP. If they use things like FIP, VORP, WAR, win shares uncritically accepted UZR or plus/minus, or any of the other pieces of the alphabet soup I’d really like to hear about it and how they’re used. I’d be very surprised. Using such stats to determine value is controversial even in stat circles, in that there’s a lot of disagreement about how much trust/weight to put into them, how to calculate them even if you agree with the general concept, etc.

-SABR != stats. Sorry, I know Bill James started it with the “sabermetrics” term (though there’s a reason he put the extra “e” in there), and there’s a lot of overlap between the stat guys and SABR members, but a lot of stat-y guys on the internet are not SABR members, and a lot of SABR members are more into the history of the game than advanced stats.

SABR’s about a lot more than stats, and is a big asset to those who treasure the history of the game.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Sep 15, 2009 1:11 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

The silver lining

Hopefully that is the last time Peralta ever shows his face on a baseball diamond in a rockies uniform……unless Tracy hasn’t figured out that he’s the 2009 reincarnation of Jorge Julio

by nugg on Sep 15, 2009 12:14 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

As much as I'd like to see it, I just don't believe the NL West title is in the Rockies' future...

the Dodgers’ schedule is just too soft down the stretch.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Sep 15, 2009 12:46 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure where this comment is coming from...

I don’t know if many Rockies fans have faith in winning the division title and would guess most are far more nervous about the prospect of the Giants catching us from behind than they are excited about us catching the Dodgers (even us Pollyanna types), but the fact that it is (or was, I haven’t checked the overall standings yet) still more possible for the Rockies than any other second place team makes it something to be monitored nonetheless. I’m curious why you feel the need to keep on making these statements RE: the division in this case since I’m guessing most Rockies fans agree already.

by Rox Girl on Sep 15, 2009 6:59 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

You DID put a lot of posts into how the Rockies could still take the division last week

and you DO have a shepherding effect on a lot of people on this board…

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 15, 2009 7:58 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I suppose I do have a shepherding effect. Maybe I should be more careful with that,

I guess I also have to be more specific about what I mean with “could,” because a 1/10 chance still means 9/10 times we won’t get it, and that chance is even less now, obviously. I just don’t think ignoring a greater goal for the purpose of taking an easy road is ever beneficial. If the Rockies aspire to be an NL wild card team, they are more or less still aspiring to mediocrity, which to me seems kind of silly since they are already better than mediocre. To me, the more obvious goal for the improvement of the club is to aspire to being on the level of the Dodgers/Cardinals/Phillies, and then from there we could start looking to the AL elite level of play. I’d rather focus on what the team needs to do to get to these levels than look what it needs to do to affirm its status among the Giants/Braves/Marlins tier.

by Rox Girl on Sep 15, 2009 8:11 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs

All well and good

But the reality is that even going 12-5 the rest of the way, which is doable, means the Dodgers can go 8-9 to claim the division. I’m all for keeping the faith, but barring a monumental collapse against the 2 worst teams in the NL… And since they own the tie breaker you need to be tied going into the last weekend series with them(I can’t see us sweeping) meaning you now have 14 games to make up 4. 12-2 might not get that done. 18-28 cost us any shot at the division THAT is where the 4 games were lost.

Tonight is our 100th game under Tracy and a win puts us at a .650 clip under him 12-5 the rest of the way means we played .663 ball for him. I was hoping to finish .500 this year. I’m happy with the WC this year.

by Roxfan24 on Sep 15, 2009 8:29 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why do people equate even mentioning the division race

with not being happy with the wild card? I don’t think anybody’s saying that, just that the greater prize is preferable if at all possible. And I think everybody knows that the odds have gotten much slimmer for the Rockies to win the division in the last three days, at least I hope so. I guess maybe they don’t, I don’t know, maybe it needs to keep on getting repeated. Still, I haven’t seen a single good explanation why the NL West games back shouldn’t be mentioned anymore.

by Rox Girl on Sep 15, 2009 8:39 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just the tone

I have read with made it seem like you will be bummed if we just win the WC. Yes the division should always be the goal until you are mathematically eliminated. I just want a win against the Giants. i would feel better about our division chances if the NEXT series was against the Dodgers instead of the last series.

by Roxfan24 on Sep 15, 2009 8:44 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely a little bummed,

As I have been each and every year since 1993 that the Rockies haven’t won the division, the Padres and Giants have won it three times in that span, the Dodgers five and the Diamondbacks have won it four times since 1998, that doesn’t bum you out a little?

I’ll still be excited for the Wild Card, but I am keenly aware that our franchise flag pole is missing a key, somewhat obtainable prize still.

by Rox Girl on Sep 15, 2009 8:53 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

plugs ears LALALALALALA CAN'T HEAR YOU

I have enjoyed this team so much the last few months – the farm system, front office moves, success against hurdles (payroll, pitching at Coors)…I almost forgot how futile this franchise has been.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 15, 2009 9:06 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess I feel like a sheep

lost in the wilderness of … what do we root for now.? I thought people felt we had (have) a real chance of raising our level of play and winning the division. Now there is talk of not even winning the wild card. Gosh, what a let down.! I’m just so sad.

The" butterfly effect ", which theorizes that a change in something seemingly innocuous, such as a flap of a butterfly's wings, may have unexpected larger consequences in the future, such as . . .winning the World Series.

by butterfly on Sep 15, 2009 8:39 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

reply fail...meant for RG.

by butterfly on Sep 15, 2009 8:40 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

That second part of what you say is why I think there needs

to be a greater balance as too much doom and gloom will get people to think that somehow the Rockies aren’t more likely to go to the playoffs than the Giants. The Rockies are much more likely to win the wild card. Again as with the NL West chase, just because there’s a one in ten chance that it doesn’t happen shouldn’t mean you ignore the nine in ten chance that it does. In the case of the WC, the Giants have to sweep the Rockies again to have much hope and even then they would be the underdog for the last couple of weeks of the season.

by Rox Girl on Sep 15, 2009 8:43 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

It would still take a LOT to not win the WC

one win against the Giants means we leave 3.5 up. 10-5 the rest of the way means 14-2 for them to tie.

by Roxfan24 on Sep 15, 2009 8:46 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Amazing what a three game losing streak can do, huh?

It’s easy for fans to connect dots and extrapolate streaks to unreasonable levels, so with the way the offense is going, it can be easy to be scared. But note that 12 of the last 15 games will be at the top two offensive parks in the NL, 9 at Coors. The strangeness here is that if the Rockies don’t make the playoffs, it would be a choke job, and the first one in franchise history. Still quite unlikely though

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 15, 2009 8:46 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can toleratew the losing streak

especially when you realize we won some we shouldn’t have during the winning. Last night is just Timmy being Timmy. The games against the Padres upset me more, and I HATE Petco. 2 of 3 against the Pads was expected. I just want 1 against the Gmen

by Roxfan24 on Sep 15, 2009 8:52 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great post, RG. Agree 100%.

Always aim for the highest.

"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine

by pedalpusher on Sep 15, 2009 10:27 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't mean shepherding effect in a strictly negative effect

but many casual users are going to probably take your opinion and run with it. They could do worse.

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 15, 2009 6:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Keep making these statements"?

That’s the first time that I’ve said that about the division. Really. And yeah, RG, you were driving the bus on that one.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Sep 15, 2009 9:19 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, maybe I misread an earlier comment

I also probably wrote this particular reply too sharply. I’ll be fine still driving the division bus, as long as everybody aboard understands that the odds are remote.

by Rox Girl on Sep 15, 2009 9:21 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

[Han Solo]Never tell me the odds.[/Han Solo]

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Sep 15, 2009 9:32 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love that you drive the bus, and with such panache.

Until last night we were as likely to win the division as we were to not win the WC, yet every seems terrified of the latter while ignoring the former. Odd thinking.

by biondino on Sep 15, 2009 9:46 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs