Thursday Rockpile: Rockies wild card scenarios rise; Giants, Marlins and Braves must pray for help
So with yesterday's victory over the Giants, the Rockies increased their lead in the NL wild card race to 3.5 games over San Francisco and maintained a 4.5 game edge on Florida and a 5 game lead over Atlanta. The Rockies with 15 games left have the least opportunity to make something more happen, but the other teams face considerable deficits just to get back into the picture.
Below I've used sportsclubstats.com's Monte Carlo simulation data along with information from Baseball-Reference to see what the Rockies competitors have done so far this season to see how likely they are to overcome the deficit they have to the Rockies. Needless to say, the picture is pretty rosy for the Rockies and pretty bleak for everybody else.
- Current Record: 77-68
- Games remaining: 17
- Wins needed to get to 83: 6
- Opponents: Washington 7, Mets 4, Phillies 3, Marlins 3
- So you're saying there's a chance: The Braves have a 1 in 250 shot of making the playoffs if they finish 10-7
- Coin-Toss: Atlanta' has a 49.6% chance of the playoffs if they finish 14-3
- Rocktober Redux: If Atlanta goes 16-1 and finishes at 93-69, they will have a 90.5% chance of making the playoffs
- Atlanta's best 17 game stretch of 2009: 12-5, accomplished four times, most recently between August 5 and August 23. Duplicating that gives the Braves a 10% shot at the playoffs.
The heavy presence of the Nationals gives the Braves the easiest remaining schedule, but they also have the deepest hole to climb out of.
- Current Record: 78-68
- Games Remaining: 16
- Wins needed to get to 83: 5
- Opponents: Phillies 6, Reds 4, Braves 3, Mets 3
- So you're saying there's a chance: The Marlins have a 1 in 300 shot of making the playoffs by finishing 9-7.
- Coin-Toss: Florida's chances jump from 29.6% if they finish 12-4 to 58.3% if they finish 13-3.
- Rocktober Redux: The Marlins have a 96.5% chance of making the playoffs if they go 15-1 the rest of the way.
- Florida's best 16 game stretch of 2009: 11-5, accomplished three times, most recently June 18 through July 5. Duplicating that gives Florida a 10.4% chance at the playoffs.
As with Atlanta, the Marlins are faced with the proposition of having to be better than they have all season to become a likely playoff team. Unlike Atlanta, their remaining schedule isn't filled with patsies and they haven't had the same level of success since the All-Star break that they had before it.
- Current Record: 79-67
- Games Remaining: 16
- Wins needed to get to 83: 4
- Opponents: Arizona 6, Cubs 4, Dodgers 3, Padres 3
- So you're saying there's a chance: If the Giants go 8-8, they'll have a 1 in 200 shot at making it into the playoffs over the Rockies.
- Coin-Toss: San Francisco's odds improve from 43.7% if they finish 12-4, to 64.8% if they finish 13-3.
- Rocktober Redux: If the Giants finish the season 15-1, they will have a 94.1% chance of making the playoffs.
- San Francisco's best 16 game stretch of 2009: 11-5, accomplished 10 times, most recently July 23 to August 8. The other nine times they did this were in May or June. If the Giants do finish with another 11-5 run, they would have a 24% chance of making the playoffs. Their chances drop to just 10% finishing at 10-6.
The Giants still seem to be the most likely competitor to catch the Rockies. Obviously we should hope Colorado keeps on winning first and foremost, but if we're scoreboard watching, the fourth (71 losses overall) and sixth (73 overall) losses by San Francisco from here on out loom large for their impact on the race.
- Current Record: 83-64
- Games Remaining: 15
- Opponents: Cardinals 4. Dodgers 3, Brewers 3, Diamondbacks 3, Padres 3
- So you're saying there's a chance: If Colorado limps to a 2-13 finish, they actually still have a 1 in 500 shot at making the playoffs according to the Monte Carlo simulation.
- Coin-Toss: The Rockies break the 50-50 barrier by getting their sixth win. From 89 wins on, they are the favorites.
- Rocktober Redux: A 14-1 finish gives the Rockies a stone cold lock on the playoffs and actually makes them likely (56% of the time) to have the best record in the National League.
- Colorado's best 15 game stretch of 2009: 14-1, accomplished four times during the team's June run. So the only team in the wild card chase that's shown itself capable of putting together the kind of run needed to catch the Rockies would be the Rockies themselves.
The Rockies have the most diversity in their remaining schedule with five different opponents, which could play to their advantage as familiarity breeds neutrality, but what certainly doesn't play to their advantage is being the only team of these four to face two current division leaders. Still, it's encouraging that even just six wins out of these last fifteen puts them in the playoffs most of the time.
Other links after the jump.
MLB.com
Jason Marquis believes the problem in his last four outings is a flaw in the early part of his windup, not something related to the importance of games.
Denver Post
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Comments
Sorry about all the white space...
I’m not sure why it gets in there in the process of editing and publishing and running SBN’s autolink gizmo, but it’s a bug that’s really annoying. I’ve edited a lot of it out if anybody wants to refresh the post.
This was a great post, I had to rec it.
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Purple Row Cares
I agree
That one win was a dagger
"There are only two important things in life: baseball and breathing. But at least you can survive without breathing for 3 minutes."
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by Hollidayrain on Sep 17, 2009 9:36 AM MDT up reply actions
Needless to say, the picture is pretty rosy for the Rockies
If you read Rockpile comments yesterday, you probably would remove that preceding qualifier :)
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 8:46 AM MDT reply actions
Maybe they are wrong
It would make sense for the RMN to be different for the Marlins and Braves, given they have different records…
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 8:59 AM MDT up reply actions
Nope, they're right...
If the Rockies win 6 they have 89 wins, if the Marlins and Braves lose 6, they’ll have 74 losses. Anything less than 12 and a tie is still possible.
an awesome dood
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 8:54 AM MDT up reply actions
i'm still sick
somebody come keep me company
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 10:01 AM MDT up reply actions
Company?
I blame you for the meltdown last night! As soon as you left, Morales turned into Fuentes!
You almost killed dozens of people with your absence!
I had the game on the radio?
I was scared too
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 10:10 AM MDT up reply actions
yeah I think I am too
I’m actually feeling OK, but I keep getting lightheaded and I’m really congested, so Home I stay!
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 10:14 AM MDT up reply actions
My girlfriend is sick too
Sorry, she takes precedence
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 10:40 AM MDT up reply actions
lol, nice
"There are only two important things in life: baseball and breathing. But at least you can survive without breathing for 3 minutes."
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by Hollidayrain on Sep 17, 2009 9:37 AM MDT up reply actions
one of our better posters on the row
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
dawwwwww :3
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 10:01 AM MDT up reply actions
Don't let your head
swell too much… Oh, maybe thats the “congestion”… :^)
The oxen are slow, but the earth is patient.
by rockieprogress on Sep 17, 2009 10:38 AM MDT up reply actions
whatever mondo loves me
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 2:14 PM MDT up reply actions
So who do you use in the meantime?
I’m not sure you can send Morales back out there. It looks like he’s struggling with both his command and his confidence. On Saturday he either couldn’t or wouldn’t (because he was afraid) throw a strike. Last night, he got behind to a couple of hitters by nibbling with his fastball, and then when he did throw a strike it was a meatball that they made good contact with. I’m afraid that getting pulled with nobody out, although it was absolutely the right move, will only make his problems worse.
Simple answer
the offense scores runs and we don’t need a closer, other wise I trust Jim Tracy to make the call, he’s done pretty well so far.
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
It will be interesting to see Morales's response
They need him to be able to pitch in important situations.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Against the D-backs, maybe his confidence comes back.
Remember his great start against them in the opening series of the season? I think he likes pitching against Arizona.
I remember that great start
I believe he gave up 18 flyballs and zero groundballs. Or something close to that
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 9:32 AM MDT up reply actions
and caught like all plate on everything, but the Dbacks were struggling to even pound meatballs?
Dex hit his first MLB dinger with his parents watching
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 10:02 AM MDT up reply actions
i'd expect no less
“Touching 98 at times, Morales caught pneumonia from the bats of Arizona…”
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 10:09 AM MDT up reply actions
I still like Frankie as our best option
He, Raffy, and Daly are the only ones who seem able to consistently miss bats
Patrick Saunders: I think Kruk is lazy.
Give him the ball
A closer has to pitch in tough situations. It’s part of the growing pains. The Rockies have enough lead, that it’s alright. But a Morales that can handle big innings, and pressure, going into the Playoffs is a huge plus.
The only way he gets confidence is dust himself off, and get back in the saddle.
I hope this is true.
Just not sure if he’s developed the fabled “Closer’s Mentality” yet. I didn’t like the way he seemed to be nibbling last night. Then again, after looking back at Gameday, the pitch that Molina hit was a pitcher’s pitch, and a good one it looked like.
it was at his ankles!
but Morales needs to gain that “Closer’s Mentality” see I think he had it, but it wasn’t tested with adversity. Now he’s had some..he’ll be stronger for it, if he gets back in there.
he just needs to rare back and throw the ball. Quit this trying to fool the hitters.
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
by pedalpusher on Sep 17, 2009 12:13 PM MDT up reply actions
yeah it seems like street has supposed to be back every series
they said SD, then he’ll be back for SF, and now its Sat.
and i dont think he needs to be activated. He was never put on the DL much to many of my fantasy teams dismay where he took up a roster spot and I couldnt DL him and add morales
from MCC

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with this I approve
Sucks to be a giants fan. Keep winning Rox
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
This is a great simple spread
that I can understand.
Now think about the Fish or the Native American Characterchures have to do.
heh
this is a funny post
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 10:04 AM MDT up reply actions
Personally, I'm far more offended by "Washington Redskins"
which I have no idea how they get away with. But Cleveland and the Braves use of the Characterchures is offensive too.
I'm personally not offended by any of it
but at the same time, I’m token white guy from the suburbs. I don’t think about Native Americans as all having feathers in their caps and such, I think of them as people. North Americans don’t view Native Americans as being like that either, so I guess I don’t see what the big deal is.
But again, token white guy from the suburbs.
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 10:13 AM MDT up reply actions
see you were never a minority that was a characterchure
which I think would be tough. (of note here, I’m part Cherokee..but it’s such a small part, it doesn’t count) But I’m from Oklahoma, and there were a lot Indians there, and they were proud of their heritage, and like any minority, they were the same..yet a little different due to their background.
But “Redskins” isn’t a characterchure, it’s a slang, like Whop, or Hiemi, or Chink, or Polok, or Spic, or Mick, or Jiggaboo, or….

That Fightin' Whities movement was inspired by my high school's mascot
That was my first semester writing for the school newspaper. Trial by fire.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 10:42 AM MDT up reply actions
Okay. Spelling police coming through
Its caricature, not characterchure.
3 times isn’t a typo… so I figure you may need a little help with this one.
The oxen are slow, but the earth is patient.
by rockieprogress on Sep 17, 2009 10:45 AM MDT up reply actions
No I had no idea how to spell it
and I typed in several ways..and this one (Characterchure) actually came up.
Charcuterie?
That’s all I thought of when I saw that spelling.
Heh, I was thinking the same thing
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Sep 17, 2009 10:51 AM MDT up reply actions
I'm descended from Germans that lived in Russia that were subjected to some pretty serious discrimination back in the day...
though that was done seventy or so years ago.
Eschew Obfuscation!
Harding quote
Jason Marquis believes the problem in his last four outings is a flaw in the early part of his windup, not something related to the importance of games.
I wonder how this one came about. “Jason, you’ve stunk in 3 of your last 4 starts. Is it because you can’t take the pressure?”
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
The flaw in the early part of his windup
is that he keeps glancing at the out of town scoreboard
Patrick Saunders: I think Kruk is lazy.
Or is it that he has his hands around his throat?
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
The man has clearly never pitched for a playoff team down the stretch
Not even once. What a LOOSER
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 9:02 AM MDT up reply actions
Sunday's Game in AZ
Drew Goodman mentioned that the matchup would be Jimenez v. Haren, but ESPN’s probables say Jimenez v. Buckner, and they have Haren going against the Giants in Game 1 of their series.
Hope it stays that way.
Aku, Soku, Zan
I think ESPN is a bit slow on the uptake of rotation shuffles
too bad…I had yet to look at pitching matchups and I dreamt of a Jimenez vs. Buckner matchup last night for some reason
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 9:05 AM MDT up reply actions
And now it's time for F26's Top 10...
Tonight, the Top 10 Headlines I expected to see over a Paige article before “Brothers Monfort Deserve Our Praise”:
10. “Josh McDaniels Deserves Our Praise”
9. “How The Broncos Will Go 0-16”
8. “My Best Buddy, Jay Mariotti”
7. “That Elway Guy? Overrated.”
6. “A Few Educated Thoughts On Hockey.”
5. “That Sakic Guy? Sucked.”
4. “Eating Dog Food For Fun And Profit”
3. “Don’t Bother, I Wrote This One During A Single” Around The Horn" Commerical Break"
2. “Denver’s Favorite Team: The Mammoth”
1. “Fwhee.”
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
by Franchise26 on Sep 17, 2009 9:06 AM MDT reply actions 7 recs
I don't even bother reading past his headlines
particularly when the topic is baseball
Patrick Saunders: I think Kruk is lazy.
The article was rather scatterbrained
and also gave credit to the Monforts for much of what O’Dowd did
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 9:17 AM MDT up reply actions
The comments were worse
really only one person, mentioned, spending money on the draft picks this year.
Good stuff.
I like 6
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 9:13 AM MDT up reply actions
so true hahaha
"There are only two important things in life: baseball and breathing. But at least you can survive without breathing for 3 minutes."
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by Hollidayrain on Sep 17, 2009 9:40 AM MDT up reply actions
this post is funny
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 10:05 AM MDT up reply actions
You should link back to the fwhee article
for the people who don’t get the reference.
Plus, it was his best work ever. I’d read it any day!
http://twitter.com/blakebomber
by BlakeBomber on Sep 17, 2009 11:57 AM MDT up reply actions
While it is true that we are the only team to play 2 different
division leaders, the Marlins play a divison leader twice, so that will still be rough. I am actually thinking that could be a good thing if both of those teams have their spot locked up, some guys could rest from those teams. Especially LA being the last series, they will likely be resting some guys and maybe taking guys out early to avoid injuries.
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
I wonder too if TLR will try and "hide" his best pitchers from the Rockies
since the Cardinals are our likely opponent in the Divisional Series if we make it there. He won’t want to give our batter good looks at them, I would think.
Good point
I hadn’t thought about that and the Cards are pretty much a lock right now.
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
Also another thought from last night's game
and maybe this has already been mentioned, but it seems as though the Rox listened to the scouting report from PHLP. I noticed they were much more aggressive last night and had much better swings as a result. I like the patience we have shown this year, but at the same time if pitchers are going to continue to just lay a 1st pitch strike in the zone we need to punish it. I just liked the overall change in team attitude last night, we went after it and we didn’t let them take it to us.
DLR was masterful and kept his head together under tough circumstances. He just executed some great pitches and put them in great spots. The 2 hard hit balls off fo him were about the onyl 2 pitches that missed location, he was awesome. That was a great game to watch and the 1st time in awhile they played w/ great heart.
It takes a big man to cry, but it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man.
I'll admit that I didn't expect the win last night,
but in retrospect, it should have been considered their best chance to win in SF. Cain is primarily a fastball pitcher, and though he threw a couple of good curves, they were able to lay off it for the most part. Breaking pitches in general seem to give the Rockies fits on the road, as they have more movement than in Denver.
I think the offense is still struggling in general, but they looked better last night. And Tulo is awesome.
that was my thought as well too
Cain = fastball = death
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 10:14 AM MDT up reply actions
Yesterday on 1510 Radio
with Klatt and Creckman show, Tom Hellmer was on. (best radio in Denver, they talk everything BUT Broncos usually.)
His take was that the Rockies were VERY tight, and it was noticeable. He said you could feel it in the locker room, and hear it when Tracy spoke. He said it happened Saturday night, when the Rockies came back on the Padres….but failed to win the game. He said, it surprised the Rockies that the magic had left.
BUT the Rockies won last night. I’m hoping, that will get them to relax. Hurdle was right, in baseball, you can’t try harder, sometimes you have to try easier.
That….and have better pitching
It should be a lot easier to be loose
Against the team’s remaining regular season opponents up until the Dodgers series. The team does seem to do worse under a direct competition spotlight, which bodes really badly for the playoffs, but at least we’re likely to get there.
But if you read the comments under Paiges artcle in the DP
getting to the Playoffs, and then getting knocked out in the first round….would be the worst thing EVER!
That and the Moforts are stoopid for selling playoff tickets online 2 years ago. (Hey, I’m just repeating what was posted over there)
I blame the Broncos
Or maybe the Avalanche and Nuggets… Your run of the mill Denver sports fan doesn’t seem to get that just getting into the MLB playoffs is the equivalent of getting into the second round in any other sports league. And not only that, but you don’t just have to beat one opponent to get to the second round, but twelve.
by Rox Girl on Sep 17, 2009 10:23 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'd also argue a playoff series isn't as good a test
as they are in the NBA, or a playoff game in the NFL. Very different conditions from those MLB is played under the rest of the year. A huge strength of the Rockies entering the season was their depth, but in the playoffs, that comparative advantage goes away. It also seems far more common for a MLB team to play under its ability for 3-7 games than in the NBA example. The NFL I’m not sure about, but given the nature of the game (# of games in a season and the potential for injury) and the sort of virtues that are praised there (toughness and coming through in crunchtime being at the top), I feel pretty comfortable saying the playoffs are a much better test for NFL teams than MLB teams.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
I saw that thing about the tickets
I wasn’t about to post that you need to register beforehand. Fewer people in the pool means more chances for me.
Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 17, 2009 11:03 AM MDT up reply actions
I wonder how this will work
Will they open the gates to the “winners” only to have the system crash anyway? Have scalpers automated registration so they’ve registered 50 million times?
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Wait ... What?
Did they release something about postseason tickets?
Too late, my friend
There have been multiple posts and a fanshot on the pre-registration process. It closed Tuesday.
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.
I'll be the guy in a orange shirt EVERY Monday...Broncos are my team win or lose.
I thought just the registration for the Divisional Series closed on the 15th
Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 17, 2009 11:23 AM MDT up reply actions
Crap!
Where did this come out? I didn’t see the fanshot, and there is nothing on the official web site. At least not that I can find. I didn’t hear anything on TV or the radio broadcasts.
Now RoxnSox,
Don’t go taking this information and posting it all over the Denver Post.
Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 17, 2009 11:30 AM MDT up reply actions
Ha ha!
No worries. I don’t want any more competition for tickets than you guys do. They should make you show tickets from regular season games in order to get post season tickets.
in 2007
I was saying that the login password for playoff tickets should have been “Harikkala.”
Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 17, 2009 11:36 AM MDT up reply actions
That's brilliant
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 12:03 PM MDT up reply actions
Thanks
I didn’t know this either, as I’ve been a little busy to catch things lately.
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
You are correct!
Here the verbage from jabberwocky’s link:
“Registration begins August 7, 2009 at 3 p.m. MT and ends on September 15, 2009 at 11:59 p.m. MT for the Division Series; September 30, 2009 at 11:59 p.m. MT for the National League Championship Series; and October 12, 2009 at 11:59 p.m. MT for the World Series. Please check the appropriate boxes on the form above indicating which series you are registering for. You may select one, two or all three series. If you select all three, you only need to register once.”
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.
I'll be the guy in a orange shirt EVERY Monday...Broncos are my team win or lose.
Man, I'm bummed.
I had no idea they were doing something like this. I registered, and I guess I could get NLCS or WS tickets. Hopefully I’m not too late.
Ticket limits
Those applicants whose names are selected shall have an opportunity to purchase up to four tickets per game for the Division Series, four tickets per game for the League Championship Series and two tickets per game for the World Series, on a first-come, first-served basis. Subject to availability.
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.
I'll be the guy in a orange shirt EVERY Monday...Broncos are my team win or lose.
I made sure everyone in our family registered
And if any of them win, they’ll give the tickets to me :-)
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Sep 17, 2009 12:58 PM MDT up reply actions
Let's just be like Braves' fans were 10 years ago, and skip the Division Series.
Save your money for the all-but-assured world series tickets!
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.
I'll be the guy in a orange shirt EVERY Monday...Broncos are my team win or lose.
ew, gosh no
I’m still of firm belief that the reason for the Braves fall from grace was karma for their fan base who didn’t go to the playoff games. The baseball gods said “You don’t come to the playoff games? The playoff games will stop coming to you.”
Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 17, 2009 1:39 PM MDT up reply actions
Sorry, i was try to be sarcastic
while offering comfort to those who missed the DS deadline.
Agree 100% on the karmic implications.
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.
I'll be the guy in a orange shirt EVERY Monday...Broncos are my team win or lose.
That....or...
the Braves cut their payroll by about $40 million per year.
I like your version better though.
Well you know where that $40 mil could have come from?
Revenue from the outfield seats in the division series.
Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 17, 2009 2:31 PM MDT up reply actions
Speaking of...
I’ll be MCing the show at Wits End tonight if anyone needs off-day entertainment.
sorry to use the Row for self promotion.
Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 17, 2009 2:48 PM MDT up reply actions
Anyone read Neyer's article this morning?
He was at the game last night.
Basically a death knell article for the Giants season. (Though I don’t know if calling 15 game WINNAR DLR a “journeyman” works anymore…)
Neyer is a Royals fan at heart,
So he has memories of JDLR that will probably be a lot more bitter than most of our memories of him as Rockies fans.
Corrected or qualified?
I think the way he talks about DLR is fair, esp. in the article you linked. One could definitely think of him as a journeyman heading into this season.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Agreed, the journeyman tag is understandable
Though without following baseball, you wouldn’t know fromt he article whether JDLR was pitching like he is, or whether he’s essentially Kip Wells. It sounded more like the latter, like the Giants choked by losing to a bad pitcher. That pitching matchup was fairly even.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 11:01 AM MDT up reply actions
That's a good point
Looking at that 1st article, yes, he make it seem as if DLR had a fluke game. I can see a casual SF fan thinking that way, but it is misleading otherwise.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Great game by the Rox last night
Got us back onto solid footing, some momentum and positives to build on, and sunk the Giants just that much lower. Oh, and it also drove the Negative Nancys away from here for a while. Good stuff all around!
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
Does it seem like some people are far more active in threads when the team is losing?
Or is it just me?
I guess I don’t just mean “active,” as it seems natural that there’s more to argue about when things are going bad as per the “if it ain’t broke…” maxim. More like, some people’s main contributions are posts about the shortcomings of the team or of specific players, but they tend to post them when the team is losing.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
I think that's a fair and valid point
Personally, I don’t write much when some one is going good (though I try to give credit),as I expect a player to do well..that’s their job and goal. But when someone is not going good, I’ll have a lot more to say.
which is amusing
because how many posters do we have coming in saying “The Rockies strike out way too much! This is new and relevant! I should share my opinions with Purple Row, as I’m absolutely sure they’ve never noticed that they strike out so much.”
Why can’t people come in and make a new fanpost that says “Here are 12 reasons why I think Seth Smith should be the first Rockies player to visit the International Space Station” or something like that? Why must we be subjected to “BARMES IS A FREE SWINGER! BENCH THIS FOOL!”
It’s not “QUIT POINTING OUT REALITY BARMES IS FANTASTIC LA LA LA LA CAN’T HEAR YOU”, that’s not the point of me tirading on all the negativity. These hack-and-slash comments are all DUH – no kidding we need more base hits, tell me, should we score more runs and get more outs on defense as well?
My point is we should celebrate this team and the fun things and the awesome things, and not take so much time to point out the bad things, because all see them. This is nothing fresh.
(just for the record, Redhawk is not the intended target of this post)
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 2:30 PM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
You nailed it
Exactly what I’ve been thinking these last few losses in the game threads
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Sep 17, 2009 2:35 PM MDT up reply actions
you know there is an art to being
a quality negative nancy. One who is still a fan, yet critical at the same time. It’s not as easy as PHLP and I make it look to be.
Oh and the Monforts are CHEAP BAZTARDS!
oh, if you can come in and blow my socks off with something we've all missed
you nancy till the cows come home.
But we get it, Stewart hits for really low batting average this season
Hawpe is struggling
Joel Peralta sucks

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 2:40 PM MDT up reply actions
You might have a point.
I posted more yesterday about how problems I see with the offense, and how I want to see results rather than hear about talent or past performance. That said, we got results yesterday, so I’m happy. (But I think the results came more from JDLR than the offense.)
Sometimes, though, I don’t even want to think about baseball after a Rockies loss, so I just stay away. Coincidentally, those are my most productive days at work.
Coincidentally, those are my most productive days at work.
Lets not bring that up, or point that out…as I’m in the same boat.
Yup, last night we won,
so today has been rather slow at work.
This is sort of an odd phenomenon I've noticed with all of SBN's blogs...
Especially as they get popular. With most you can easily identify one or two posters that will always have something critical to say of the team they root for and who will most often be found posting when the team loses as a sort of confirmation bias chance to gloat about being right. A few blogs such as McC seem to have more than a usual dosing of this type of poster. I think there are sunshine only types (I’d probably be one if I haven’t been pushing myself to confront bad news more) that feel inclined to post only when things are going well, but they are probably less noticeable in the threads after winning and could get confused for bandwaggoners.
I've also noticed that as a team nears success
the atmosphere changes a bit. I was primarily a White Sox fan before moving to Colorado, and I used to frequent a Sox fan site. In the summer of 2005, things were going great until the team nearly blew its 15.5 game lead. You started to see more of the extremes in posts, i.e. some people saying everything would work out, you just had to believe, and others saying that the sky was falling, and this just proved that the team sucked. It got to the point where it wasn’t even enjoyable any more.
Fortunately, the Row seems to benefit from a better (more sophisticated?) level of discussion. People make better points and have evidence to back it up, and there is definitely more interest in advanced statistics. I know I tend to get pretty negative at times, but I try to keep a realistic attitude, and it seems that most of the posters on the Row keep the discussions civil but still passionate.
that and you have nitpicky mods who confront all of the hatas
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 2:31 PM MDT up reply actions
I won't name names...
…but in following various boards I know of which you speak (the bashers). You can almost see the glee oozing out of their posts when their (?) team or certain individuals fail (e.g. Clint Hurdle). Like you say, it’s some sort of weird affirmation for these types and it takes precedence over rarely mentioned success.
This is sort of an odd phenomenon I’ve noticed with all of SBN’s blogs aspects of life…
The complaining voice is always louder than the praising voice. The angry/sad/horrifying stories get more play on the 5-o’clock news than the positive ones. It’s just human nature it seems.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 12:17 PM MDT up reply actions
reasons why I don't read the news
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 2:31 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't mean critical or negative posts per se
It’s more like what Rox Girl and DeepPurple are talking about. I’m not thinking of folks who are venting frustration (as almost everyone needs to do this from time to time, and then they later return to their regular types of posts), and very much not what Redhawk is saying (meaning, I’m definitely not thinking of him). I think it’s a bit natural to comment more when things aren’t going well, because we very much don’t want the team to remain in that state. Whereas if the team is winning, while there’s plenty to point out about what’s working, it’s less urgent…we’re much more willing to just sit back and enjoy the winning.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Yeah, the west coast games can be brutal.
Especially when they go 22 innings.
SI.com
Captured my feeling about last night’s win perfectly:

It's Seth Smith's world. The rest of us just live in it.
sweetness
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
"TuLoRocks2008 had the most comments I've seen in any game thread this year (322)...Can such a feat be eclipsed?" ..... Bring it on!!
by TuLoRocks2008 on Sep 17, 2009 4:01 PM MDT up reply actions
Game replay coming up at Noon in Denver on FSN
I didn’t see it live, but I’m afraid I’ll get just as queasy watching the bottom of 9th even though I know the result.
I'm so watching this right now
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 2:32 PM MDT up reply actions
If you have ESPN360
you can watch the replay anytime online. It’s hard to believe but that was the first Rockies game I’ve seen all season so I went back and watched the game between patients and class this morning.
how many more starts does Jorge have? 3?
Love to see him win 18 (although wins isn not a good barometer of a pitcher’s worth :) )
"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine
I even rooted for Shawn Estes to win 18
Which is sad. Who wants a scrap heap Shawn Estes in your wins record book? I’d take anyone.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 12:45 PM MDT up reply actions
3 if this is right:
18-Sep @AZ Marquis
19-Sep @AZ Hammel
20-Sep @AZ Jimenez
21-Sep OFF
22-Sep SDP DLR
23-Sep SDP Marquis
24-Sep SDP Hammel
25-Sep STL Jimenez
26-Sep STL TBD
27-Sep STL DLR
28-Sep OFF
29-Sep MIL Marquis
30-Sep MIL Hammel
1-Oct MIL Jimenez
2-Oct @LAD TBD
3-Oct @LAD DLR
4-Oct @LAD Marquis
Marquis would be the only one getting four more starts
Patrick Saunders: I think Kruk is lazy.
10/2 TBD may not be needed
So DLR and Marquis would move up and Hammel would get last start
Patrick Saunders: I think Kruk is lazy.
I could see moving DLR up,
but I don’t know if you would want to pitch Marquis on 3 days’ rest unless you really needed the win, and thought that would help you somehow.
if I really needed the win, Marquis wouldn't be the guy I go to
unless he seriously figures out his delivery again over the next week here
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 2:32 PM MDT up reply actions
Still, the Rockies have a decent chance for five 10-game winners and 3 15-game winners.
When was the last time that happened? If that’s not proof that the Rockies have good pitching, I don’t know what is.
Well, it has never happened.
I think we went a 5 year stretch where only Jennings and Fogg had 10-win seasons as RHP
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 1:17 PM MDT up reply actions
I just took the chance to tout our WINNARS again
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 3:53 PM MDT up reply actions
Looks like he's locked into three then
If they added a fifth starter for Sep 22, he’d get pushed back to the 4th, still getting three. And there’s not enough days to go on short rest and go four starts, even if three starters broke their arms
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 1:17 PM MDT up reply actions
And depending on how the race is going
there might be some juggling of starters to set up the starters for the playoffs. I would assume the Rockies would want Jimenez, Marquis, JDLR, and Hammel in that order for their playoff rotation.
At least to have Jimenez at the start of the rotation.
You know, if it were me,
I would at least consider putting Hammel #2. He really seems to struggle at Coors. Marquis, on the other hand, has performed well at altitude. This defies conventional wisdom of ordering your starters from best to worst, but I feel that Hammel on the road is almost as good as Marquis on the road, and much better than Hammel at home.
All this would be much simpler if the Rockies had home field advantage, of course.
He hasn't looked too bad at Coors recently
If anything, I’d say he has evened out home and away in the last couple months, so either way, you’re getting decent Hammel.
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Sep 17, 2009 3:36 PM MDT up reply actions
what's interesting about Hammel's home/road
is that he actually pitches “better” at home. Higher K/BB, stuff like that.
that said the opposition wails on him at Coors, to the tune of nearly a .900 OPS. He doesn’t walk any more than normal home or away, but he seems to have a BABIP issue at home along with a massive Coors Power Boost.
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 3:37 PM MDT up reply actions
Flatter breaking pitches?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 3:54 PM MDT up reply actions
I just noticed that Tulo is 10th in MLB for post-ASB OPS.
Any guess who is at 13? (Hint: he’s attracted to sharp objects.)
Kaz Matsui?
Oh…maybe it was blunt
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 17, 2009 1:04 PM MDT up reply actions
I GET IT
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 2:33 PM MDT up reply actions
That's awesome.
Given all the “KarGo” grief he’s gotten.
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.
I'll be the guy in a orange shirt EVERY Monday...Broncos are my team win or lose.
OK Raffy
I know you get us out of this and we win
BUT GET US OUT OF THIS RAFFY
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YORVIT YOU HAVE A WEAK ARM
RAAGHRARGAHRAGHAGHARTHEWIPWREHNGEIBNV
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 2:44 PM MDT up reply actions
are you just now learning this? :)
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
Last homestand
I like that DLR will start the first game of the final homestand. This should set the stage for some good home cooking.
I am celebrating this Rockies victory by watching Tom and Jerry on Cartoon Network
I hate being sick.
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ahahahahah
it even has the sassy african american housekeeper
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 3:03 PM MDT up reply actions
go play
with the robot you got at career fair, and then go to bed. It might actually help.
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
I took a 2 hour nap earlier, got one of those $1 jimmy johns' sandwiches, and now I'm on the couch watching cartoons
and making an amazon.com wish list for all the nintendo stuff I wish i had
and thinking about all the time i wihs i had.
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 3:13 PM MDT up reply actions
Where does everybody go at this point in the day when the Rockpile thread is pretty much worn out?
Is there some secret hangout thread where all the cool people are posting? I feel like I’m back in high school wondering why nobody wants to talk to me. ;~}
Probably not sitting here and refreshing
which is what I’m doing… >.>
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Sep 17, 2009 5:00 PM MDT up reply actions
I'm bored. and leaving.
CRUSH THE DEMONDBACKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by prettyinpurple on Sep 17, 2009 5:06 PM MDT up reply actions
Yeah, same here
When there’s no game coming up tonight, it’s hard to stick around.
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Sep 17, 2009 5:10 PM MDT up reply actions
I'm here just lurking from time to time
Once I get off work I’ll be gone for the night, yay for me that’s in 10 minutes.
"A fine beer may be judged with only one sip, but it's better to be thoroughly sure."
-Czech Proverb
by NewMexicanSteven on Sep 17, 2009 5:50 PM MDT up reply actions
I was just doing some scoreboard watching...
looking for the right game to bring up in this thread. Giants and Dodgers are off..Braves are in rain delay…
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.
I'll be the guy in a orange shirt EVERY Monday...Broncos are my team win or lose.
Rays Orioles on!!!!
Your best? Losers alway complain about their best. Winners go out and f*** the prom queen.
-John Mason (Sean Connery)
So, yea, bored out of my mind with no Rox game lol
Yorvit Torrealba - Best Name in Baseball :)
Brad Hawpe will get more hits and runs!
yep, yep!
CRUSH THE DEMONDBACKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by prettyinpurple on Sep 17, 2009 6:57 PM MDT up reply actions
Watching Marlins isn't quite the same....
and I’m not sure if this is possible, but I think I caught RMN’s cold…I feel like poo:(
Yorvit Torrealba - Best Name in Baseball :)
Brad Hawpe will get more hits and runs!
Aaugh, there's a cold bug running aloose on the Row!
CRUSH THE DEMONDBACKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by prettyinpurple on Sep 17, 2009 7:03 PM MDT up reply actions
And to think the only bugs I was worrying about were in the machine...pshaww!!
Yorvit Torrealba - Best Name in Baseball :)
Brad Hawpe will get more hits and runs!
bah
I’m sorry
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 9:36 PM MDT up reply actions
I have a solution...
homework!!! yeah, yeah, I know, FASCINATING…but it’s kind of become my life. Occasionally i look at my schedule and I think…who would DO this? Then I remember I do. < sigh >
Carlos Gonzalez is a sexy man
I know what that's like
"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK
I watched "Silent Movie"
an all time Mel Brooks great!
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 17, 2009 9:36 PM MDT up reply actions
Is it wrong that I want to rewatch the game from last night?
as I still have it on DVR…
Yorvit Torrealba - Best Name in Baseball :)
Brad Hawpe will get more hits and runs!
baseball is baseball.
CRUSH THE DEMONDBACKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by prettyinpurple on Sep 17, 2009 7:14 PM MDT up reply actions
Fish lose
Another nail in their coffin, and a nice 0.5 game pick-up on an off day
No records in the last 10 years should count.
good news
now if the mets could only come back against the braves. again, i state that the braves are the rockies main threat. strong pitching, pathetic schedule against teams with no fight in them (nats and mets) unlike padres who are giving teams fits.
2nd and 3rd no outs for mets
good opp to tie this one up
isn't that the truth....
Yorvit Torrealba - Best Name in Baseball :)
Brad Hawpe will get more hits and runs!
looks like 7 in a row
for the braves. up 6-2 now. we could use some help from the phils this weekend to knock some wind out of their sails.
Braves win and they are 4 behind in loss column
3 games against Phili , 3 against Flordia, 3 against NYM and 7 against WSH pending for Braves..
I wonder what the bookies would offer for a three-part bet on COL, PHI and LAD tonight...
The answer, according to paddypower.com, is 5.3/1 (i.e. a 19% chance of the results going as we’d like). Of course, this includes their profit margin, so it’s more like they perceive a 15% chance of all three results going our way.
Of the three, Rockies and Dodgers are significant favourites, while PHI/ATL is rated 50/50.
Oops, I seem to have placed a small wager :)




















