Wednesday Rockpile: Ruminations on Seth Smith and Jose Contreras
by Jeff Aberle on Sep 2, 2009 8:34 AM MDT
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PrintThe Rockies not only ended a five game losing streak with a 8-3 victory over the Mets last night, but they also surged a game ahead over the Giants in the Wild Card race--a lead that I surmise Colorado will not relinquish the rest of the year.
In very related news Seth Smith was in the starting lineup for the Rockies, only his third start in eight games (and with Dexter Fowler on the DL). Smith's 3-4 game raised his wOBA to .394, behind only Todd Helton. Dixie also has the third highest WAR total on the team in limited action.
Despite the glut of outfielders on the Rockies roster, Smith really needs to play more. If that playing time comes at the expense of Brad Hawpe and Ryan Spilborghs, so be it. My hope is that with Jason Giambi on the roster as a left-handed bat off the bench, Jim Tracy will look for Smith to provide more of a starting role.
Speaking of Giambi, the 38 year old slugger made quite an entrance into the Rockies clubhouse. Colorado killed the Mets with their patience last night, drawing seven walks--including two with the bases juiced (an unfortunate idiom for Giambi, who drew one of them). The Rockies are excited about what Giambi brings to the club.
Garrett Atkins got a rare start against a right hander last night and took advantage, going 2-3 with another bases loaded walk. He was only starting because Ian Stewart's wife was giving birth to their first child--congratulations to the Stewart family! Also noted in Renck's article is the fact that Greg Reynolds and Greg Smith were both placed on the 60 day DL to make room for Giambi and Paul Phillips on the 40 man roster.
Contreras Talk
Within this Renck article is news that Aaron Cook expects to throw again in the regular season, though not for another 2-3 weeks. In the meantime, Jose Contreras will get the chance to prove his worth to the Rockies. To make room for Contreras, the Rockies designated catcher Edwin Bellorin for assignment.
ESPN Insider's Keith Law reviews the Contreras deal, liking the move from Colorado's side. His opinion mirrors mine, especially with this money quote:
It's no guarantee, but with Contreras the Rockies at least get the possibility of a few strong outings down the stretch in a race that might be decided by just a game or two.
Buster Olney writes about waiver warfare and while he refers to the Red Sox and Yankees, the NL West performed their own form of an arms race at the waiver trading deadline.
The Rockies were purportedly unfazed by this trading flurry, though I'm not sure I buy that. What I do think is that of the three NL West teams, the Rockies got the best players (if not necessarily the best deals).
Sure, Jim Thome is great at hitting, but he won't be able to play in the field at all (Rob Neyer wonders why he was signed) while Jon Garland and Brad Penny don't have the potential that Contreras brings to the table, Cuban octogenarian or not. So you could say that I'm one of the few brave souls drinking the Contreras Kool-Aid (have some, it's terrific). I guess Ronnie Belliard could tip the scales in LA's favor, you know, if you're into Ronnie Belliard.
Tracy Ringolsby offers a quick and dirty Contreras-Penny comparison for those who remain unconvinced--and there are many of you.
Playoff Odds
Coolstandings (55.4%)
Baseball Prospectus Original/PECOTA/ELO (62.9/54.7/59.6)
Sportsclubstats (Graphical--63.0%) Most likely record is from 89-92 wins according to simulation.
Power Rankings
CBSSports--because I'm sure that somebody wants to read them.
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Don't forget Belliard to LA
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Quite.
Though I think he sucks. That’s my completely subjective, no-stats evaluation.
Eschew Obfuscation!
I concur
with absolutely nothing to back it up but my own opinion.
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 8:58 AM MDT up reply actions
Dude's got a WS ring
One more than Helton. Clearly he is the superior player. Much more of a winnar™.
by KindredSprites on Sep 2, 2009 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions
That is funny
I didn’t realize that. The Sky Sox’s own Mark Bellhorn also has a ring.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Keith Law
is a man among boys in the field of mainstream scouts/analysts. I have not hid my man-crush on him, and will continue to make it known to everyone!
Just an average guy with exceptional hair. Nothing more, nothing less.
by Bryan Kilpatrick on Sep 2, 2009 8:46 AM MDT reply actions
Is he really mainstream?
I mean, he works for ESPN, but he is an ex-BPro guy, and was hired by the Jays for his stat-headiness. He was at the center of a bit of a brouhaha when he and Rob Neyer were denied admittance to the BBWAA.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Not that this has anything to do with anything
but can I just say that “brouhaha” is one of my favorite words in the English language?
Working for ESPN indeed makes him mainstream in my mind.
He definitely isn’t shy about letting everyone know how he feels about the BBWAA because of that, too.
Just an average guy with exceptional hair. Nothing more, nothing less.
by Bryan Kilpatrick on Sep 2, 2009 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions
The Keith Law Blog
makes me think of Bob Loblaw’s Law Blog
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 10:55 AM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
Ok
now is the time to put the hammer down with two awful pitchers going for the Mets today and tommorow…
mmmmmm Contereras kool aid
Always goes down sweet
Also Ronnie Belliard definitely sucks more than any other player that I can think of right now. I hope he plays in lots of important scenarios.
... But sometimes it comes back up bitter.
As a Sox fan, I can attest to both the brilliance and utter disappointment that is Jose Contreras. From August ‘05 through May ’06, he was probably the best pitcher in baseball. He has show dominance in spurts here and there since, but he’s just as likely to walk six guys and leave after five innings. I’m hoping that having better defense behind him will improve his confidence and allow him to cut down on the walks, while giving up fewer hits. By the way, I’m pretty sure that U.S. Cellular is actually more of a home run park than Coors. I guess we’ll see what happens.
Penny < Contreras ?
At first I was going to say that it’s cracked out to say that Contreras has more potential than Penny, but their numbers aren’t far apart this season. Contreras has a slightly better FIP, Penny has a slightly better K/BB. Contreras has about 1 more K/9 than Penny, Penny is walking about half a batter less per 9. Pretty close.
The only question is whether it’s an advantage or disadvantage for Penny to have pitched in the NL West before, and for Contreras to have not?
I say advantage Contreras
NL West hitters have seen Penny just as much as he’s seen them. Advantage is always to pitching in Baseball, so go Contreras
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 10:17 AM MDT up reply actions
C's splits don't bear it out
but I thought that, too. Guy who changes arm angles, he should be more effective against teams that don’t face him regularly.
Career slash line batting against: .260 / .329 / .408
Slash line in 24 interleague appearances: .280 / .338 / .483
He did reasonably well in his 3 interleague starts this season, though.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
eh, SSS for the interleague, but I won't harp on that too much
provided he can make his pitches and Iannetta and Torrealba can call a good game.
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 10:57 AM MDT up reply actions
Huh?
I don’t get the comment. Which sample are you referring to? Of course 2009 is a small sample. Career, it’s 650 PA, which is small in terms of the level precision people tend to assume when citing stats…but otoh, not the usual “SSS.” However, if the batter’s unfamiliarity is an advantage to Contreras, you’d think his splits would be a bit more pronounced in the other direction.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
I meant his interleague numbers are a relative SSS
and interleague is always a bit weird anyhow for trying to measure performance and such.
I meant to say that Contreras will be fine, provided he can make his pitches and Iannetta and Torrealba can call a good game, based on the unfamiliarity of the NL West with Contreras.
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions
650 PA
for all hitters, total… but this still means most hitters in the NL West haven’t seen him that much.
I know
But don’t see how that’s relevant. Ostensibly, the hitters who collected the 650 PA hadn’t seen Penny much, either.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
No resolving this debate
People will point to September results as evidence of which of these trades worked out. Thing is, if you’re willing to use statistical evidence to support your choice at the time of the trade, then you won’t necessarily be swayed by what happens in September in a few starts or a handful of PH attempts.
There’s just not a big enough difference in talent level among these guys, and even if there were a big gap, even good pitchers can have bad months.
I mean, look at this collection of losers:
6 starts, 1-5, 6.21 ERA
3 starts, 9.82 ERA, 10 HR allowed in 18.1 innings
4 starts, 6.26 ERA, 5 HR in 23 innings
4 starts, 0-4, 6.92 runs allowed/9
4 starts, 8.22 ERA, 7 HR in 23 innings
4 starts, 7.58 ERA, 17 walks in 19 innings
4 starts, 8.18 ERA, 7 HR in 22 innings
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Is there a trivia question coming?
The results of these kinds of trades – ones that will only result in a month’s worth of ABs or 4/5 starts – will be determined by surface results. If you acquired a cleanup hitter, how many RBIs did he pick up/HRs did he hit? If it’s a pitcher, how many times did the team win the games he started?
Small sample size combined with the high-pressure context means that results matter more than statistics. If Contreras goes 3-1, and Penny goes 1-3, but both have similar peripherals, Rockies win.
I guess
What I am saying is if that’s the PoV when asking “Was this a good trade or not,” then it’s basically a crapshoot.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
In this case, when there's not a lot separating Garland, Penny and Contreras
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
I agree
But just saying that since the raw statistics don’t mean much on sample size, and since they are relatively close in performance over the season, then it comes down to the team’s results in their starts. That’s a perfectly fair way of judging the trades.
The pitchers above
It’s not a trivia question, but I didn’t want to post their names in the same post for effect. I figured if anyone was interested, they’d ask.
The pitchers above are:
Buehrle
Beckett
Haren
Greinke
Lester
Jimenez
Santana
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
It's Was A Tantalizing List
And pretty illustrative. Are those random bad months somewhere in their careers, or a particular month (April, September?) where they all performed poorly?
I just tried to find 3-4 start stretches this season
They were from different parts of this season, wherever I could find them. Ubaldo’s was from April.
And of course, I’m not trying to imply that all pitchers have an equally bad chance of having a stretch like that.
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I totally forgot to include an itr link in yesterdays rockpile
But Samuel deduno was named Pitcher of the Year in the Texas League and Jordan Pacheco was named MVP of the sally league
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 2, 2009 10:24 AM MDT via mobile reply actions
Huh, that's cool.
I wonder how they choose the pitcher award. I guess guys who move up must get discounted?
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Probably
Also, you have to know that those awards have nothing to do with a player’s status as a prospect. Delta Cleary is probably a better prospect than Jordan Pacheco, but Pacheco had a much, much better year.
Also: Contreras will be available for the playoffs...
and (barring injuries) Giambi, Phillips, Flores, and Peralta will not.
Eschew Obfuscation!
Quintanilla is looking over his shoulder at every turn
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 10:58 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Can you explain?
We were trying to come up with the rule in yesterday’s game thread.
As with other finer point transactions issues, such as figuring out the Murton option, the stuff you find on the net is pretty sketchy. I don’t see why MLB doesn’t cut through this bs and just put all the rules on their website (for the stuff that’s not in the CBA, which I don’t think this is).
I’ve read that the player has to be on the 40-man by Aug 31, other places say in the organization. Some places say the 60-day DL player that is replaced needs to be of the same position, others say not. (Maybe that changed recently. Looks like Seth Smith used Aaron Cook’s spot in 2007.)
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Yes, some clarification would be great.
Everything I’ve found has said that it has to be the same position. And the consensus over teh interwebz says that they must be on the 40-man roster by Aug 31, (unless someone is placed on the 60 day DL). But I don’t know if either of these statements are true.
My read was
If replacing an injured player:
1) replacement player has to be same position
2) replacement player had to be in organization 8/31
3) replacement player has to be added to 40 man roster (but not on 40 man roster 8/31)
Otherwise, to be playoff roster eligible, had to be on active 25 man roster or DL on 8/31
Anyone find error with this?
Patrick Saunders: I think Kruk is lazy.
What's the source?
It isn’t that big a deal, but I guess it seems these transactions conversations always go around circles in these “edge” cases. So to the extent we care about trivia (and I care a little, because compared to the average person I spend an inordinate amount of time on baseball), I wonder what sources people are finding.
Here is why I wonder whether the replacement player needs to be of the same position, provided we are replacing the injured player before the series begins:
-MLB.com article showing that Seth Smith was added to the playoff roster in place of Aaron Cook, who was on the DL
-This 2007 Globe article by a beat writer Amalie Benjamin, in which the Sox director of baseball operations explains the eligibility rules:
“The position-player-for-position-player / pitcher-for-pitcher requirement is indeed now gone for substitutions prior to a series.”
The extended quotation from the guy also implies the replacement player does not need to be on the 40-man roster as of 8/31, which sounds like Rawktober’s take as well.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
as you point out, there is no single definitive source
Or rather, the one definitive source, “The Official Professional Baseball Rule Book”, is some super secret tome, available only to MLB muckety mucks, laughingly in the form of a “loose-leaf binder” (I could only find two libraries that supposedly have copies). So my post was a compendium of stuff found on the Net, with my conclusions being what seemed to be consensus on the rules. I have also concluded this is a wholly unacceptable state of affairs – why should fans be left guessing what baseball’s rule are?
I did see one source that seemed to suggest the “same position” replacement player rule had been changed, but it did not seem definitive. However, your separate source supports that there was a rule change in the 2006/2007 time frame. My guess is, then, that position-for-position replacements are no longer required.
Patrick Saunders: I think Kruk is lazy.
I agree, they should publish the rules
if they’re not already available somewhere. Let fans get geeky about your product!
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
ok i have to disagree with one thing
Rockies: Jason Giambi is no slouch with the bat and offers defensive utility while Jose Contreras has the highest ceiling of the pitchers.
Giambi provides defense? lol have u seen him trying to throw the ball from 1st to home plate before lmao…but i think it is pretty even with us and the dodgers.
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
"TuLoRocks2008 had the most comments I've seen in any game thread this year (322)...Can such a feat be eclipsed?" ..... Bring it on!!
He must mean Giambi can play in the field if needed
From what I read from White Sox fans after the trade, it sounds like Thome isn’t just bad in the field, he’s physically incapable of playing there at this point.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
yeah that's what i hear to about Thome
Giambi is probably close to that
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
"TuLoRocks2008 had the most comments I've seen in any game thread this year (322)...Can such a feat be eclipsed?" ..... Bring it on!!
by TuLoRocks2008 on Sep 2, 2009 11:28 AM MDT up reply actions
sure about that?
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 11:29 AM MDT up reply actions
i live in NJ
i used to watch Giambi play 1st base for the yankees night in and night out and he was one of the worst fielding first baseman i have ever seen…so i doubt he got any better since then
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
"TuLoRocks2008 had the most comments I've seen in any game thread this year (322)...Can such a feat be eclipsed?" ..... Bring it on!!
by TuLoRocks2008 on Sep 2, 2009 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions
Fair enough
Was he bad fielding the ball off the bat, and good at scooping, or was he awful at both?
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 11:32 AM MDT up reply actions
if i had to give him a strength
it was probably his scooping ability because it was better than his fielding and throwing but that’s not really saying much…but oh well his defense won’t be needed he will be a solid addition in the pinch role.
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
"TuLoRocks2008 had the most comments I've seen in any game thread this year (322)...Can such a feat be eclipsed?" ..... Bring it on!!
by TuLoRocks2008 on Sep 2, 2009 11:34 AM MDT up reply actions
My point is that Helton has lost a step in terms of ball-off-the-bat as well
but is still 2nd to none in terms of making Barmes, Tulo, Atkins, Stew all look like better fielders
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 11:37 AM MDT up reply actions
yeah true
gotcha
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
"TuLoRocks2008 had the most comments I've seen in any game thread this year (322)...Can such a feat be eclipsed?" ..... Bring it on!!
by TuLoRocks2008 on Sep 2, 2009 11:39 AM MDT up reply actions
There's evidence he's good at scooping
3 scoops above avg in Dewan’s study, despite not playing fulltime at 1st. Could be luck, or easy hops, of course.
Giambi did seem like a pretty bad fielder otherwise, worse than Helton, definitely. (I don’t see anything close to every Yankee game, just the national games and playoffs.) Still, it is significant if the choice is between bad defense at 1st vs. cannot physically play there.
If Giambi can still hit and Helton was hurt, it’s an option to play him there. With Thome, you don’t even have the choice.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
I'm just making conversation
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 11:41 AM MDT up reply actions
Inglorious Basterds
and I finally saw The Departed
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 11:51 AM MDT up reply actions
That conversation about The Departed you had the other night.
Made me watch it again last night. For probably the 21st time. I used to just put on that movie for background. Great.
Giambi's postgame presser
made him sound like a really positive guy
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oh, it was just from the FSN postgame
sorry
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 11:52 AM MDT up reply actions
I saw that interview
It seemed that Alana was pretty nervous/flustered around Giambi, but he definitely seems like a classy guy, and is saying all the right things.
Heh
Maybe the Giambino gets her all hot and bothered.
by Tom (RFTN) on Sep 2, 2009 1:59 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
i had the same thought...
now that we know what Alana is looking for, how can I fake it.
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.
I'll be the guy in a orange shirt EVERY Monday...Broncos are my team win or lose.
well, it's golden...
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 3:38 PM MDT up reply actions
Re: Seth Smith needing to play...
I really feel that if it was Spilly, Dex or CarGo in left last night, those two triples would’ve been two long outs. His ability with the bat not withstanding, how does SS’s range compare with the other three guys in the platoon?
Am I the only one that would rather have a little more speed in LF? Especially when Dex comes back, I think CarGo, Dex, and Hawpe from lf to rf is the best outfield we’ve got.
I'm not 100% on Hawpe, personally
but yeah
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 11:53 AM MDT up reply actions
I agree,
But at the same time, LF seems to be a much larger area to mind than RF is. I’m not convinced that Smith has the arm for RF though, so even if we sit Hawpe in place of CarGo, the liability remains with lack of speed in LF. Just my .02… I’m definitely not an advanced stat guy, so I don’t have the evidence to back up that Smith lacks for range.
by Rox R Champs on Sep 2, 2009 12:01 PM MDT up reply actions
eh, I'm not 100% on the fielding metrics anyhow
My point would be more that Smith in LF > Hawpe in RF, despite the area
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 12:03 PM MDT up reply actions
if Gonzalez is in CF, I concur with that
I don’t get the feeling of defensive maturity from Dex though, for some reason. He can handle his own zone just fine, but Gonzalez can pick up slack from the corners too.
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 12:17 PM MDT up reply actions
Again, I agree
But I think part of the problem is that Dex gets a little over-confident out there sometimes and ends up show-boating, and a couple times those antics have come back to bite him. But still, I’d rather have all that speed from Center to the left field outfield box seats
by Rox R Champs on Sep 2, 2009 12:23 PM MDT up reply actions
plus if Dex can shade right a bit, he CAN take up a bit of Hawpe's slack
knowing that Gonzalez is filling in the LC gap
And I know Dex will mature, I’m not saying he won’t, so don’t worry there.
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 2, 2009 12:28 PM MDT up reply actions
Again,
I’m using just the eye test. I simply don’t recall him gunning anyone down, and it doesn’t seem to me that he has that “respect” factor where opposing teams don’t try to test him.
And your snarkiness is duly noted…
I'm amazed his arm was rated as highly as it was on Tango's fielding survey
He actually looks like he has a poor arm in the throws I’ve seen so far. Not Pierre-esque, but below average in strength.
And yes, it does seem odd given he was a college QB. Maybe he was more of a running QB. Plus, he never threw a pass in anger, so maybe he wasn’t that competitive a QB, either.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
So far this season
Outfield assists:
7 – Spilly
5 – CarGo and Dex
4 – Hawpe
3 – Smith
Surprising that Spilly has the most, considering only Smith has had less playing time.
I don’t think he has “that respect factor” simply due to not enough playing time. And it looks like teams need to respect Spilly as well.
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Sep 2, 2009 3:04 PM MDT up reply actions
Spilly does a great job of getting to the ball quickly
it’s not all about the arm
Patrick Saunders: I think Kruk is lazy.
by Rawktober on Sep 2, 2009 3:57 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd that
Definitely. And I don’t think this affects our OF’s, but there are those strong-armed guys who love to show off and make bad throws, or don’t give the infielders a chance to cut the throws.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
This is a case of offensive awesome outweighing defensive liability.
It would be awesome to have more speed, yes. But the way Seth Smith has been playing lately all season, you really really shouldn’t be benching him, even when Dex comes back.
So the best OF would be
Smith, CarGo, Dex, and Hawpe?
4 OF’s……I like it….since the other teams only get to play with 3…I like our odds.
Seriously I’m not sure who gets benched when Dex comes back..maybe Dex? Or Dex plays against lefties, and GarGo moves to left or Right? It’s a nice problem to have
I'm a strong advocate of
“bench whoever isn’t producing right now.” Which right now would mean Hawpe. (and I love the guy.)
speaking of 4 outfielders
I saw a baseball trivia question yesterday that puzzled me. The question was “can a MLB team field 4 outfieldser”, and the answer was true. How is this possible? Does it involve moving the SS to the outfield or something?
Yep.
You see it sometimes, like infield shifts (three infielders on the right side of the infield) or in some extreme situations. I think one time I saw a team move their CF up to the infield, right behind second… probably one of those late-game situations where you absolutely can’t let a ball get out of the infield.
I seem to remember a game a few years back
when a team (I think it was the Cards?) used a center fielder to pick someone off at second. They pulled their second baseman off the bag so the runner got a really big lead, and then the center fielder ran in behind the back of the runner. The pitcher spun around and threw to the center fielder who got the tag down.
"Admirably obsessive." - Uni Watch, March 24th, 2009
NA34 | HK | RMN
It means
going with three infielders. Which I think we can do, just have Tulo hang around the second base bag and cover everything up the middle.
Then stagger outfielders.
Deep in the corner, shallow left center, deep center, shallow right.
Something like that.
There's the shift teams have used on Ortiz, Giambi, and others.
They’re extreme lefty pull hitters. The 3rd baseman is near the 2nd base bag. The 2nd baseman drops into shallow right-center, the left fielder is more towards center than he’d usually be. The CF and RF are positioned more normally, fairly deep, but not “up 4 in the 9th” deep.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
Plus, Smith is no slouch defensively (you know, using those suspect defensive metrics)...
and has played CF before.
Eschew Obfuscation!
Just to qualify what I meant by defensive liability:
Seth Smith is going to miss some plays because he doesn’t have the speed of Dexter or CarGo. We’ve all seen examples of this. So I meant defensive liability, comparatively. (Also, comparisons to Dexter’s are a irrelevant and don’t really have a place in this particular conversation, but I digress.)
I don’t think that is a problem at all though. Seth Smith can make some great plays in the outfield, as we have also seen. I don’t see his defensive abilities as being weak enough for him to be anything less than an every day outfielder.
Well, according to UZR, Dex has horrible range in CF
One of the worst in MLB. I can’t figure out if it’s right, and we are all just a bunch of fools for thinking he gets to a lot of balls in the outfield, or if UZR is only marginally better than statistical noise. I’m leaning toward the latter.
UZR also though Taveras was horrible
When he was with us, but good when he was with the ’stros and reds. I believe the point was suggested that UZR has no idea what to do with Coors Field.
by KindredSprites on Sep 2, 2009 6:07 PM MDT up reply actions
Random Excitement
After being out of town on a ‘business trip’ for the past couple months, I’m home, and have already bought Rockies tickets for my upcoming trip up to the Great State. Woohoo!!!!
(Yesterday made me happy. I was a little nervous and superstitious; They sucked, I left, they were awesome. I was really hoping that there wasn’t some correlation with my return to the continent.)
Hawpe v. Smith
To those more intelligent than I ( I admit not a big difficultly) where can I get information to compare these two:
Are the Rox better off when Hawpe starts and Smith pinch hits or is the opposite true?
Have Smiths overall number been skewed because of his ridiculous pinch hitting stats (hitting .450ish) for the season? Or would be be performing better if he got more of a chance?
What are Smith’s starting numbers so I can compare to Hawpe’s?
I just want to understand the reasons behind Smith not starting v. Hawpe.
FYI, I am leery of fielding stats so I am really not sure how to grade them.
I find Tracy to be an intelligent baseball man and would like to understand the reasons behind these decisions. I do believe whatever gives the Rox the best chance to win is what Tracy would do. If this has already been done please direct me to the link. Thanks.
I'd go to baseball-reference.com
Though others like Yahoo sports’ offerings; sites like fangraphs and hardballtimes.com can complement either. Under bb-ref’s gamelogs, for example, you can click on the “inngs” column to sort by that, and look at how the team does when a player starts (it’s also summed towards the top of the game logs page).
The various batting stats and splits can show how he’s performed in various roles.
I think the biggest reason why Hawpe starts is his track record and incumbency. He’s a dependable bat and it usually takes more than a couple bad months for such a player to play their way out of a job.
The most difficult aspect of analyzing Smith is that he has 423 career plate appearances, and that’s just not a lot in the world of statistics. You can look at minor league stats, but then there’s the issue of whether he’s improved since then, how to compare stats from various minor leagues to MLB performance, etc.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
you can also try the fanpost on this site called "Seth Smith is good and he should start over Hawpe"
can’t get the link to work for some reason
Patrick Saunders: I think Kruk is lazy.
This link?
Seth Smith is good and he should start over Hawpe
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Sep 2, 2009 4:09 PM MDT up reply actions
Giants have called up Buster Posey
The one MLE I’ve seen for his AAA stats is .330/.430, which isn’t shabby, esp. considering his age.
Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!
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